Apocalypse Now: Destroyed Donbas will unlikely 'ever be built back to former glory in our lifetimes'
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00:00 Let's get more analysis and bring in Peter Zalmayev from the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
00:03 Peter, thanks for being with us here on France 24.
00:06 We always appreciate your time.
00:07 Peter joining us live from Kyiv.
00:09 Good to see you, sir.
00:11 Odessa struck three kill there.
00:13 Given the status of Odessa and how popular it was to both sides, there's a real symbolism
00:18 about this.
00:19 Well, indeed, you know, and the symbolism is that Russia has claimed these territories
00:24 in the south of Ukraine, in the east of Ukraine as historically Russian lands.
00:29 Odessa is traditionally, as you know, a Russian speaking city founded by the Empress Catherine
00:37 the Great.
00:38 And that's where actually a lot of the sympathy for Russia could be found back before at least
00:45 2014.
00:46 But even after the initial Russian aggression against Ukraine, it sort of persisted.
00:51 You know, Russia's influence, Russia's culture has predominated in Odessa.
00:56 And now Odessa has been sort of at the front lines as a city that is being shelled and
01:01 bombed regularly.
01:03 And so you have a veritable renaissance of Ukrainian culture.
01:07 A lot of Odessans are switching to Ukrainian, you know, and with Vladimir Putin's actions
01:14 against the city, I just do not believe that we will see a resurgence of any sort of sympathy
01:21 for Russia in the coming generations after what Vladimir Putin has done to that city.
01:26 Peter, as you were speaking to us, we were showing the images of Odessa.
01:30 Let's show everybody now the images from today from Kramatorsk, shelled overnight, homes
01:35 damaged.
01:36 Again, another story being told there.
01:37 We understand in the Donbass area, there's been something like three people killed.
01:42 That obviously could be a larger figure given the scale of what Russia is doing.
01:47 That's actually my native region.
01:50 I'm originally from Donetsk.
01:52 And obviously it pains my heart to see that this region is being destroyed.
01:57 And I'm just not sure that it will be ever built back to its former glory in our lifetimes.
02:04 You know, what we're seeing with these actions of Vladimir Putin, a lot of them are senseless.
02:10 You know, they don't target military objects, whether through, you know, the outdated Soviet
02:19 weaponry.
02:20 Some of these missiles are far from precise.
02:24 Or simply because Vladimir Putin has, you know, found it kind of expedient to continue
02:30 this terror against civilians simply because there's not enough to report from the battlefields.
02:36 The Russian army is stuck in defense positions.
02:39 You know, Ukrainian army is on the offensive and has the initiative.
02:43 And Kiev, which is the actual, you know, target that Vladimir Putin wants to go after, and
02:49 he's tried, as you know, all of May.
02:51 Kiev suffered over 20 shellings.
02:55 But all the air defenses that we have gotten there now, I mean, the bulk of them are defending
03:01 the capital.
03:02 And so Vladimir Putin is having to resort to these attacks elsewhere in the areas that
03:08 are less defended.
03:10 Peter, the reported setback in Zaporizhzhya province for Ukraine's forces a couple of
03:15 days ago, Russian commentators, this is where the question of truth or fake comes into it,
03:20 Russian commentators celebrating what happened at Malatokachka.
03:24 Can you throw the light on that for us?
03:27 Well, first of all, you have to take everything that and anything that comes out of Russian
03:32 propaganda with a grain of salt.
03:35 Most of it has been lies.
03:37 Initially, if you remember, a week ago, the Russians reported a lot of Ukrainian Western
03:42 provided weaponry, including leopard tanks and the Bradley fighting vehicles as destroyed
03:49 in the, you know, to the tune of dozens and dozens.
03:52 Well, the Pentagon has finally confirmed that that's been kind of a lie, that the figures
03:57 are grossly exaggerated.
04:00 And what you refer to that story, I mean, what we're seeing is Ukraine has in fact captured
04:04 a lot of these population centers, mostly villages, has reclaimed at least 100 square
04:10 kilometers of territory.
04:11 So it has the initiative.
04:12 And it is, you know, it's been in Russia's interest to first announce that this blitz
04:18 creak by the Ukrainians has started and then failed.
04:21 Well, the Ukrainians never claimed it was going to be a blitz creak.
04:25 By all accounts, it's going to be a hard and bloody slog to last through the summer and
04:30 beyond.
04:31 And so we just have to be patient and not fall for the rules by the Russians who claim
04:36 that, you know, that offensive has already failed.
04:39 Indeed, I think your assessment of the Kemflin offensive is very realistic and it reflects
04:43 what other military analysts have been saying to us.
04:46 Peter, you and I first spoke, of course, when the invasion first happened.
04:51 We then met in Kiev marking the anniversary of that invasion.
04:55 We're now moving on again.
04:58 Do you think this will work?
05:00 Do you think Ukraine's resolve will last?
05:03 Can this continue as it is?
05:06 That's obviously a good question.
05:07 I can just give you the figure.
05:10 Eighty percent, 80 percent of Ukrainians in the 16th month of war have continued to reject
05:19 any sort of territorial concessions to the Russians.
05:23 That figure may obviously change.
05:26 But you know, just to go by what I'm seeing, what I'm hearing, Ukrainians are patient.
05:33 They have adjusted their expectations for this particular counteroffensive without,
05:39 obviously, Western resolve to continue to support Ukraine.
05:44 We will have a very different picture.
05:46 But you know, we're hearing also very positive signals from Western capitals, from NATO leadership.
05:52 And I'm very hopeful that in the NATO summit in Vilnius that's coming up, Ukraine will
05:58 be giving security guarantees that will end an eventual promise.
06:02 Even with a concrete date of NATO membership, that will, if not a date, then benchmarks,
06:09 concrete benchmarks, that will send a signal to Vladimir Putin that the West has staying
06:14 power because Ukrainians have nowhere else to go.
06:17 So it takes two to tangle.
06:19 Vladimir Putin has to understand that his, you know, counting on sitting out the West
06:26 will fail.
06:27 Peter Zalmayev of the Eurasia Democracy Initiative.
06:30 Thank you so very much for joining us live from Kyiv.
06:33 Pleasure to see you and do take care of yourself.
06:35 Thank you very much indeed.
06:38 We continue, of course, to watch for all developments on the situation in Ukraine.
06:41 And thanks again to Peter Zalmayev.