Southeast Asia's geopolitical landscape amid global developments | The Final Word
How are major developments from foreign relations to technology shaping Southeast Asia's geopolitical landscape?
Kishore Mahbubani of the National University of Singapore Asia Research Institute joins us live.
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Kishore Mahbubani of the National University of Singapore Asia Research Institute joins us live.
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00:00 So how are major developments from foreign relations to technology shaping Southeast Asia's geopolitical landscape?
00:05 Joining us now is Kishore Mobabani of the National University of Singapore Asia Research Institute
00:11 and he joins us now live in the studio.
00:14 Professor, thank you so much for joining us.
00:16 You have just launched a new book, "Has China Won?"
00:20 So has China won the West Philippine Sea?
00:24 Well, I think that's a very provocative question.
00:29 I think China doesn't want war in what you call the West Philippine Sea and what China calls the South China Sea.
00:37 And at the end of the day, the Chinese believe that the road to success is through peaceful development.
00:47 And while they have differences with four other claimant ASEAN states, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei,
00:55 I think they will continue negotiations to sort out the issues over there.
01:01 They're complicated, they will take some time.
01:03 But as you know, I've heard that actually Philippines and China came close to an agreement at one point in time
01:12 on joint exploitation of the South China Sea.
01:17 So the fact that you came close to an agreement suggests that the Chinese are willing to compromise when necessary.
01:24 But that's the big question mark.
01:26 Compromise? Negotiations?
01:29 I mean, the Philippines won the arbitral ruling in 2016, but it seems like the way the Chinese are acting, they have won.
01:39 Well, I'm going to give away a big secret.
01:43 No great power respects arbitral rulings.
01:47 As you know, a much bigger court is the World Court, the International Court of Justice.
01:53 They passed a very clear judgment calling upon the United Kingdom and United States of America to leave their Gorgasia and return it to Mauritius.
02:04 That ruling was made some years ago. And guess what? Neither of them are giving up this thing.
02:10 So I think it's...
02:11 There are prerequisites.
02:12 So, I mean, the judgment is very clear.
02:15 They are supposed to leave.
02:17 Because it was illegally taken away from Mauritius.
02:21 So I think at the end of the day, it's important to understand that when you have a dispute with a great power, the best way out is through negotiations.
02:32 I can tell you once when United States and Canada had a bilateral dispute over a straight north of Canada, whether it's international or domestic.
02:42 Canada said domestic, US said international. Canada said domestic, US said international.
02:47 The international argument went on and finally what the US did, sent a destroyer through the straits.
02:52 That's how great powers behave.
02:55 So we must have no illusions whatsoever as small states or medium-sized states that when you deal with a great power, the best way to do it is through negotiations.
03:07 So do you think that the Marcos administration will be able to negotiate with Xi Jinping and the Chinese leadership eventually to have or resume these talks on joint exploration of the West Philippine Sea?
03:20 I think the opportunity is definitely there.
03:25 And, you know, it's important to realize that in geopolitics, there are windows of opportunity.
03:33 They open and then they close.
03:36 Right now there is a window of opportunity for the Philippines because the next 10 years will be among the most difficult years for China
03:46 because the United States has made a remarkably strong decision that it has about 10 years to stop China from becoming number one.
03:58 And the US understands that once the Chinese economy becomes the number one economy in the world and the US becomes number two, everything changes.
04:07 So China will be under great pressure over the next 10 years.
04:10 Now if the Philippines is willing to negotiate with China at a time when it is under great pressure and they say, "Okay, why don't we reach a deal?"
04:18 Then I would say the chances of achieving a deal are possible.
04:21 But, Professor, is there really a window of opportunity here for the Philippines because we're seeing President Bongbong Marcos maintaining an independent foreign policy,
04:31 giving additional sites to the Americans for the enhanced defense cooperation agreement, having military drills with the Americans, with the British, with the Australians, with Japan.
04:42 That leaves China out.
04:45 So will China still want to negotiate, compromise, and give an opportunity for the Philippines for a joint exploration of the West Philippine Sea?
04:54 Well, I'm glad you emphasize that the ties that the Philippines is stepping up with the United States is in the military front.
05:04 And I can tell you if you read the book, Has China Won, one of the main points I make is that China has a long-term strategy on how to manage this contest with the United States.
05:18 United States doesn't have a strategy. And sadly, I speak as a friend of the United States, okay.
05:24 I'm trying to help the United States with my book, Has China Won, which is why Larry Summers described it as one of the best three books he's read.
05:32 It's a must buy. It's a must book in your collection.
05:36 Must read.
05:37 But I can tell you that the real contest within US and China will not be in the military sphere.
05:47 Because there will be no all-out war within US and China. It will be in the economic sphere.
05:53 And if China is focusing very much on developing its economic ties with ASEAN, as you know it has,
06:00 because China's trade with ASEAN has grown from 40 billion in the year 2000 to 975 billion last year, including more trade with Philippines.
06:10 So if the Chinese are focusing on the economic game and Philippines is part of the economic game,
06:16 Philippines is doing the wise thing which is developing ties with both US and China, which is what, by the way, all the ASEAN states are doing.
06:24 And you say that China has a strategy because they have a sustained leadership in Xi Jinping,
06:32 while the US, you had Donald Trump who was friendly with the Chinese and even with the North Koreans, and now you have Joe Biden.
06:40 What if we have another Republican president in either DeSantis or Trump yet again?
06:47 How will that change the dynamics, Professor?
06:50 Well, as I say in paragraph one of my book, Has China Won?, the original geopolitical contest was launched by Donald Trump in 2018 or 2019 when he launched his trade war against China.
07:05 But I say in paragraph one that even if Trump goes, it doesn't matter. Because this geopolitical contest is driven by structural forces.
07:15 There is an iron law of geopolitics which says that whenever the world's number one emerging power, which today is China, is about to overtake the world's number one power, which today is the United States,
07:27 the world's number one power always pushes down the world's number one emerging power. So whoever is president, this contest will continue.
07:35 All right. We talk about the contest on the economic front, on the political front. What about on the technological front, Professor?
07:43 Could technology and artificial intelligence change the geopolitical landscape in Asia?
07:51 Well, I've actually published an article in Project Syndicate together with the president of the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Tony Chan,
08:01 in which we say that technology will be a major area of competition between US and China.
08:09 But while they will compete in some areas, they should also collaborate in other areas.
08:15 So, for example, if artificial intelligence gains more power and spreads wider, then there is a common interest in both US and China to establish some rules on how to regulate artificial intelligence.
08:31 And that's when they should come together and work together when it comes to regulating new and possibly dangerous technologies.
08:39 And what is your prediction going forward for the Philippine-China relations?
08:47 Well, I would say there is, as I said, there's a window of opportunity now for the Philippines to develop good ties with China before China becomes number one.
09:00 Because I can tell you, when China becomes number one power in the world, things will change significantly.
09:09 And as you know, psychologically, Philippines had 300 years of Spanish colonial rule, 50 years of American colonial rule.
09:21 In the Filipino mind, it is inconceivable that the United States could become the number two power in the world.
09:30 But frankly, I see that likelihood as a very high possibility, because it's very difficult to stop China today. Very difficult.
09:43 And so, for us in Southeast Asia, we clearly should understand that the world is changing.
09:51 We should understand that the contest is going to become very dangerous over the next 10 years and ensure that we maintain good ties with both.
09:58 Watch the space over the next 10 years. Thank you so much for joining us on The Final Word.
10:04 Professor Kishore Mobubani from the Asia Research Institute, National University of Singapore.
10:10 Thank you.