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00:00 (upbeat music)
00:03 - Let's start with a quarterback.
00:05 Why do you think Joe Burrow has a good year for Cincinnati?
00:09 - Well, starting off with season-long props,
00:11 they can be super tough to do,
00:13 especially, you know, this far out,
00:15 but I like to correlate season-long props
00:17 with season-long award markets.
00:19 So if we look at the NFL MVP odds,
00:22 Burrow, Mahomes, and Josh Allen are all tied
00:25 as co-favorites at plus 700 for the shortest odds.
00:27 So Burrow's expected to have a huge season.
00:30 He's had 34 and 35 touchdowns in the past two seasons.
00:33 And if we look back over the past 10 years,
00:35 a quarterback has won the MVP award
00:37 in each of those 10 seasons,
00:38 and only one time did a quarterback finish
00:41 with fewer than 33 touchdowns.
00:42 That was Tom Brady in 2017.
00:44 So if we use the award market as an indication,
00:48 if Burrow is quote-unquote a favorite to win that award,
00:50 he's likely going to need to have at least 33 touchdowns
00:54 to put himself in a spot to win that award.
00:56 Yeah, we can look at all those underlying metrics
00:58 of touchdown rate and the Bengals passing rate.
01:00 Those are all phenomenal.
01:01 I will say they are, a lot of the insecurity
01:04 or the uncertainty about their team
01:05 comes from their offensive line,
01:07 which is actually ranked 17th right now,
01:09 according to PFF, which seems very mediocre.
01:11 It was actually set 11 spots higher
01:13 compared to the end of 2022.
01:14 And they also have the top-ranked wide receiver unit.
01:17 So Burrow is unbelievable,
01:19 and he's likely going to need to have a huge season
01:21 if he were to be in a spot to win that award.
01:23 (upbeat music)
01:26 [MUSIC]