This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond, dated 25/07/2023
Changes in the jet stream will bring a cooling effect to the eastern Mediterranean this week and potentially a shift in the UK weather patterns eventually too, but in the shorter term expect the UK weather to remain pretty mixed.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
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Changes in the jet stream will bring a cooling effect to the eastern Mediterranean this week and potentially a shift in the UK weather patterns eventually too, but in the shorter term expect the UK weather to remain pretty mixed.
Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Alex Deakin.
~
Subscribe to make sure you never miss the latest UK weather forecast or important weather warning - https://www.youtube.com/c/metoffice?sub_confirmation=1
We are the Met Office, the UK’s national weather service, and every day of the week we bring you a morning weather forecast and an afternoon weather forecast so that wherever you are in the UK we have you covered.
Forecast and any weather warnings are accurate at time of recording. To ensure you have the most up to date weather information, check the hourly forecast and live warnings on the Met Office website or app.
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NewsTranscript
00:00 We are searching for summer.
00:02 Any sign of any lengthy dry, warm spells of weather across the UK?
00:06 Plus the European heat wave or the Mediterranean heat wave.
00:10 Is it finally coming to an end?
00:12 We'll try and look at both of those subjects in some detail in this week's Met Office Deep Dive.
00:18 Welcome along. My name is Alex Deakin.
00:20 I'm a meteorologist here at Met Office HQ, and this is the Deep Dive only on YouTube.
00:27 Thank you for watching.
00:28 Thank you for all your comments.
00:30 Please do hit like and subscribe and share the love.
00:34 If you know another Met head who would be keen to learn more about the ongoing
00:39 atmospheric conditions around the UK and beyond, then do share the love.
00:43 As I said, we love doing these Met Office Deep Dives, and we do love
00:47 and really enjoy reading all of your comments.
00:51 So thank you very much for for all of those.
00:53 Please do keep them coming in.
00:54 Any suggestions of any topic that you'd like us to cover?
00:57 Also greatly welcomed.
00:59 OK, let's take a look at the UK weather now before we start,
01:04 because I read the comments, I know full well that lots and lots of people
01:07 are quite enjoying this July.
01:09 Many, many people do not want heat or strong sunshine,
01:13 but equally quite a lot of people do.
01:15 And after what was a record breaking June,
01:18 quite a few people have been a little disappointed with July so far
01:22 and are keen for a return to some more settled weather.
01:26 So that's what we'll go in search for.
01:28 In short, those people are going to be disappointed
01:31 because there isn't really any sign, certainly for the rest of this week,
01:35 the weather calming down.
01:36 But at least it's got a little drier than it was at the weekend.
01:39 Let's rewind this satellite image, because this was a doozy of an area
01:43 of low pressure that came in and brought a lot of wet weather.
01:46 It was a write off in Devon on Saturday.
01:48 And of course, under this line of cloud across northern England,
01:51 Sunday wasn't much better.
01:53 Put paid to the cricket at Old Trafford, of course.
01:56 OK, let's see where we are now.
01:58 If we just pause it and forward that, if I try not to unplug my microphone.
02:02 This is where we are now on Tuesday.
02:04 Time of recording a bit of a messy one across the UK.
02:07 Lumpy looking cloud.
02:09 Let's put the radar on.
02:10 Quite a few showers.
02:11 It's another speckly rash of a day across a good chunk of the UK,
02:15 but down towards the southwest, clearer skies and not so many showers.
02:19 So something a little bit drier here, but elsewhere, a case of dodging
02:23 those downpours, which are pretty heavy across parts of northeast England
02:26 in particular at the moment.
02:28 So some fairly heavy showers around here.
02:30 But the weather's going to calm down a little bit as we run through
02:33 the next few hours or so.
02:35 I think we'll see things turning a little bit drier.
02:37 But out west, let's turn the radio radar radar off.
02:41 Let's zoom out because there is more cloud gathering out here.
02:46 And that is going to mix things up as we head towards the weekend.
02:50 Once more, that is an area of low pressure, as you might imagine,
02:54 this one out here.
02:56 And that's heading towards us.
02:58 So at the moment, we're kind of between two lows,
03:00 the one that brought the wet weather over the weekend, that's cleared away.
03:03 We're in this kind of space,
03:06 kind of a cold between high pressure and low pressure.
03:08 But still, the air is cool and unstable.
03:11 So that's why we are seeing a fair few showers.
03:13 But this low pressure is heading our way.
03:15 If we fast forward, look at that, bringing wet
03:18 and quite blustery weather as we go through Wednesday night and into Thursday.
03:23 And then those weather fronts move through.
03:26 But this low kind of has a double swiper as it kind of reinvigorates
03:31 and then pushes back across the UK.
03:33 Friday, there is a gap.
03:34 Friday, there is a kind of a break, if you like.
03:37 One weather system clears away and it should look a little drier on Friday,
03:41 although there'll still be a few showers around.
03:42 But then this low comes in and dominates our weather as we go through Friday
03:47 and is pretty much sitting across us again for the weekend.
03:51 Now, it doesn't look quite as wet as last weekend's.
03:55 But with a chart like that, with low pressure sitting across us,
03:58 as you can imagine, there are going to be plenty of showers around
04:01 and bands of showers will be zipping across the country
04:04 around that area of low pressure.
04:06 So, yeah, no real sign, say, for the rest of this week,
04:10 the weather settling down.
04:11 It takes it pretty much the end of July, doesn't it?
04:13 Because that low, although will be edging away through the weekend,
04:16 is still going to be providing some showers even on Sunday as well.
04:19 So, yes, staying pretty mixed through the rest of this week.
04:22 As I said, there will be windows of opportunity
04:25 if you're stuck inside with the kids because it's school holidays.
04:28 It's a question of getting the timings right.
04:31 So keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
04:33 Hit subscribe on the YouTube channel and then you get the latest forecasts
04:35 all the time, as well as these deep dives.
04:38 OK, I just want to bring it back, actually, because that low,
04:41 if we take it back to where we are
04:45 kind of now, zoom out below here, is actually quite interesting
04:49 because if we put the satellite picture back on,
04:51 it's actually consuming this,
04:56 which is quite interesting because this is dawn.
04:59 This is Hurricane Dawn.
05:02 Let's bring it back to the start again.
05:04 Pause it there.
05:06 On Saturday, this little fella, let's zoom in.
05:09 Doesn't look much, does it?
05:11 But if you zoom in, you can see a nice little eye on that.
05:14 That was actually a hurricane. Hurricane Dawn was a hurricane.
05:17 Not for very long, but on Saturday, way out in the Atlantic.
05:20 So it didn't really affect anyone.
05:21 But if we run through the course of the weekend, the last few days,
05:25 you can see how that eye is still there.
05:27 As we go through Saturday night and into Sunday, we can track it.
05:30 But it's kind of as it's moved over cooler waters, it's kind of broken apart
05:35 and it's being now consumed by this bigger area of cloud up here,
05:39 which becomes that area of low pressure,
05:41 which controls our weather for the next few days.
05:43 So that is interesting because although obviously not a hurricane anymore,
05:48 because we've seen it breaking down.
05:50 But if we look at this chart again,
05:54 there's that low that's kind of consuming dawn.
05:56 Take the jet stream off and on and off and on again.
06:00 Put the temperature.
06:02 You can see actually quite a bit of warm air tucked up in that.
06:04 And that's because Dawn brought some energy, brought some warmth up
06:08 from the tropics with him.
06:09 So that area of low pressure, even though it's being generated quite far north,
06:13 is still going to contain some warmth and some moisture.
06:16 Hence why it could provide a fair bit of rain as we go through Wednesday night
06:19 and into Thursday, not expected to cause too many issues.
06:21 But it will be quite a humid night.
06:23 And that'll be a big difference that we notice is that as that low comes in,
06:27 it will be quite humid after what will be a pretty chilly night tonight.
06:30 Wednesday night into Thursday will be much more humid because of that
06:33 tropical air kind of tied in with that low pressure system.
06:37 Let's take a look at that.
06:39 Actually, we can see some of those temperatures over the next few nights
06:44 in particular. If we.
06:46 Look at the temperatures.
06:50 So these are the overnight temperatures, nighttime temperatures somewhere
06:53 just up there, what's that over the course of Grampians, you can see
06:56 they're really dropping down there over the next couple of nights,
06:59 some chilly nights to come before we see a big spike.
07:01 So tomorrow morning temperatures in the low single figures there
07:06 before jumping up.
07:07 So quite a big jump there between the nighttime minimum
07:09 because of that air that's coming in a chilly one tonight.
07:12 And then it gets much warmer the following night and further south as well.
07:15 Something similar.
07:16 We'll see those temperatures jumping up as that warmer air comes in.
07:20 So a couple of chilly nights
07:21 before temperatures really start to to rise later in the week.
07:24 So, yeah, that's an interesting feature,
07:26 the fact that those temperatures will be rising by night.
07:29 Speaking of temperatures, let's look a little further afield, shall we?
07:33 Let's head back to.
07:35 Well, let's start with the jet stream, because this is what's going on
07:39 at the moment.
07:40 The broader picture shows the jet stream is kind of in this position.
07:44 Can you see that?
07:45 Let's take the let's take the pressure charts off.
07:47 This is the jet stream.
07:48 It's not particularly strong at the moment, but it's in this zone.
07:50 It's still south shifted.
07:52 It's still across or to the south of the UK, but it is just driving south in here
07:57 in and across Europe, where, of course, it has been very hot.
08:02 And this is going to bring about a change.
08:03 It's still very hot in southern Italy at the moment.
08:06 But as the jet stream dips southwards here, fast forward.
08:09 Wednesday is pushing further south now right across Italy
08:13 and down towards Greece as well.
08:16 And by Thursday, it has pushed right the way down to towards Turkey.
08:20 So that dip in the jet stream is generating something of a change
08:23 to the temperatures across Europe, which will be good news, I suspect,
08:28 for those people on holiday, because we are going to see a temperature
08:32 dip in the next few days.
08:34 Well, let's look at the temperatures, for example, take the jet stream off,
08:38 bring it back to here, here.
08:40 And now there's the heat across southern Italy, Greece, Turkey.
08:44 It's already eased somewhat across Spain.
08:47 Actually, temperature dropped here through the course of the weekend.
08:50 Still pretty hot.
08:52 The last couple of days, Sardinia and Corsica here,
08:54 but they are already in the cooler air.
08:56 Fast forward to Wednesday.
08:58 You can see southern Italy joins in with the cooler air as well.
09:02 And by the time we get to Thursday, most of Greece is cooler.
09:06 And by Friday, that cooler air even pushing down across Cyprus.
09:10 So we are seeing temperatures dropping because of that dip in the jet stream,
09:13 not generating much in terms of precipitation, but we will see
09:17 the temperatures at least dropping both by day and by night.
09:21 And let's take a look at a couple of examples of that.
09:24 Let's do maximum temperatures, but not across the UK.
09:28 Let's head south, where at the moment
09:32 temperatures in southern Italy again today
09:36 likely to be up towards 30 degrees Celsius.
09:39 But look at that dropping off, certainly over the next few days,
09:42 back much closer to the average in the high 20s, low 30s.
09:45 Let's head now to Greece, where we'll see those temperatures dropping off,
09:49 but maybe a day later.
09:50 So the peak in the heat across Greece is likely to be on Wednesday
09:53 when the winds are lightest and again a lot of hot, strong sunshine.
09:57 But we see a drop there as well, again, back closer to average high 20s,
10:01 low 30s rather than mid 30s, up to 40 degrees Celsius.
10:05 Let's just take it a little bit further down.
10:08 Whereas Rhodes, it's here.
10:11 So again, temperatures are going to be
10:14 been a bit funny.
10:17 Get it over the land up to maybe 40 Celsius in Rhodes there before again,
10:22 dropping off much closer to average.
10:24 So, yes, it is still hot for the next day or so in the eastern Med,
10:27 but we will see those temperatures dipping at least a little bit,
10:30 but not really going to see any rainfall from that weather system.
10:33 And as we see the change, we will also see the winds gusting up as well,
10:37 which isn't going to help the wildfire situation here.
10:40 But at least, as I say, the temperatures will be getting back closer to average.
10:43 Still plenty of sunshine.
10:44 So if you're off on holiday across the Mediterranean in the next few weeks,
10:47 we're not seeing big changes with the weather there.
10:49 It's still saying generally sunny and hot, but not as hot,
10:52 not the extremes of the heat, certainly not for
10:55 as we head through the rest of this week into the weekend.
10:59 OK, so that's what's happening in Europe.
11:00 So temperatures are dipping off a little bit.
11:03 We've talked about what's happening in the UK.
11:05 The jet stream is still kind of pushing in and generating
11:09 the low pressure systems that will be bringing outbreaks of rain.
11:12 Let's take a closer look at that rainfall.
11:14 On. Wednesday.
11:20 Let's just rewind it, because it will be a chilly start, as I mentioned.
11:24 Let's pause it there.
11:25 And bring it forward a little bit.
11:29 Will be a chilly start on Wednesday.
11:32 Talked about those temperatures dropping off in rural areas.
11:35 Well, down into single figures.
11:39 And that's not playing ball, is it?
11:42 Tomorrow morning.
11:45 So these are the temperatures in towns and cities,
11:48 which probably a little bit over the top, but certainly in rural areas,
11:51 as we saw, we're going to see that dip down into single figures
11:53 before they rise further by the time we get to Thursday.
11:56 So just about comparison there, 15, 16 compared to 12 to 14 degrees Celsius.
12:02 So that big jump in temperature as we see that weather system
12:05 coming in on Wednesday night and into Thursday.
12:08 Now, for much of Wednesday, we talk about the rain coming in
12:12 and it will be coming in where across Northern Ireland, Wales, Southwest England.
12:16 But for a good chunk of the UK again, Wednesday will be a decent day.
12:20 And actually, it'll be quite a bit warmer than it has been as well.
12:23 But by the time we get to Wednesday night, Thursday morning,
12:26 that rain has moved in before it starts to pull away.
12:29 Friday is a little bit drier, as I mentioned, between where the system's on Friday.
12:35 Just a few scattered showers.
12:36 But then here comes the low pressure system and.
12:39 Here come the showers spiraling, you can see that low quite clearly there moving in,
12:44 so bands of showers crossing the country, the breeze picking up on Saturday.
12:48 Again, it won't rain all day.
12:49 The showers will tend to zip through fairly smartly.
12:52 But yeah, if you're after a fine and settled weekend, again,
12:55 you're going to be disappointed.
12:56 Not quite as wet as the one just gone, but again, far from settled.
13:00 So are there any signs of the weather settling down a little bit?
13:06 Are there any signs of any lengthy, dry and slightly warmer spells of weather?
13:11 So far, July is running a little bit cooler than average by around about
13:15 0.4, 0.5 degrees Celsius.
13:17 It is also quite a bit wetter than average as well.
13:20 But there's still a week to go. So maybe in next week's Deep Dive,
13:22 Aiden will look more in detail at the stats for July.
13:26 But looking further ahead beyond that, any sign of a change into August?
13:31 Well, there is a hint of a whiff of a change.
13:35 Let's take a look at some charts.
13:37 Now, if you were watching last week's Deep Dive,
13:39 Aiden showed this and beautifully explained the pattern of the jet
13:44 and why the weather's been stuck in a rut for most of July.
13:47 So if you haven't seen that, check it out after this one.
13:50 Last week's Deep Dive was all about the shape of the jet
13:53 and showing these blobs and the number of blobs.
13:56 Now, this is to paint the picture.
13:58 We're looking down on the North Pole.
14:00 So the North Pole is here.
14:01 And this is taking a slice through the atmosphere,
14:03 18,000 feet, about five and a half kilometers up.
14:06 And this is showing the pressure anomalies.
14:09 So the difference from normal and basically blue means where pressure
14:13 is lower than usual and orange means pressure is higher than average.
14:19 Now, if you take a ring around these mid latitudes where we are,
14:22 you can see here there are one, two, three, four, five blue blobs
14:28 and one, two, three, four, five orange blobs.
14:31 And that is because the jet stream is in this waving, looping pattern
14:35 that's generating these kind of five areas of low pressure,
14:39 five areas of high pressure.
14:41 And because it's in that looping pattern, it's not really shifting very much.
14:46 It's been in that position for most of July,
14:49 allowing the high pressure to build for a number of weeks.
14:51 And that is what generates the extreme heat that we have seen across.
14:55 Where are we? North America, South and North America,
14:58 the Mediterranean and across China.
15:00 There those areas.
15:02 But the weather patterns have been stuck like this for a while.
15:05 If we fast forward and take a look at next week,
15:11 there is a subtle shift.
15:13 Count the blobs now. One, two, three, four blue blobs.
15:16 One, two, three, four orange blobs.
15:19 So we have finally started to shift that weather pattern.
15:22 It's not as many loops.
15:24 We've gone from a five wave pattern to a four wave pattern.
15:28 Notice, however, the UK is still in the blue,
15:31 so still low pressure likely to dominate.
15:33 So we're not suggesting that this is going to be a big shift
15:36 and we're going to start seeing lots of hot and sunny weather.
15:38 Far from it.
15:39 Next week still looks pretty unsettled because we're in the blue zone,
15:42 if you like. But we have seen that bigger pattern
15:45 finally start to break down and finally start to shift,
15:48 which means it just opens the door for our weather patterns
15:51 to start to change, perhaps as we head into August.
15:55 Let's put those two next to each other,
15:57 because it might be a little bit easier to see if you put.
15:59 So this is the current pattern with the five blobs.
16:02 And this is what we're expecting through next week with the with the four blobs
16:06 and the and the pattern that's starting to weaken.
16:09 I'm sorry, it's not next week. It's the week after.
16:11 Isn't it? It's the 31st to.
16:13 Yeah, no, it's next week, Monday, the 31st to the 7th of August.
16:17 That's that pattern there.
16:19 And you can see when you compare the two, it's just not as tight.
16:21 And because you're sort of stretching the jet stream out a little bit,
16:25 it just gives it more flexibility when the jet stream is really wavy,
16:28 really loopy like that. It's more rigid. It's harder for it to shift.
16:31 So you're just kind of stretching it out a little bit.
16:33 And that gives the chance for more progression and more changes
16:37 in the weather patterns.
16:38 Again, Aidan explained that probably much better than I did.
16:41 In last week's one.
16:42 And this is the week after.
16:44 And again, you've still got that kind of you still got that pattern.
16:47 And notice the UK is here still under the blue blob.
16:49 But again, it's just a bit more stretched out.
16:52 You've got four areas rather than five.
16:55 So it just gives that more flexibility in the jet stream, perhaps hinting
16:59 that we could start to see a little bit more of a shift.
17:01 Aidan also showed this last week, the Hove Moller.
17:04 And this is now starting to show that as well.
17:06 So this is, again, a slice through the atmosphere at five and a half kilometers
17:11 up. Orange is high pressure.
17:13 And we're going back in time now here on the Y axis.
17:17 And you can see these lines, these columns.
17:19 That's basically where the high pressure has been dominating,
17:22 sitting, keeping the weather stable.
17:24 Hence why the temperature has been building here in North America.
17:27 Here, actually out in the Atlantic.
17:29 This is the Mediterranean.
17:30 So we're here in this green zone here.
17:33 But again, we're now going forward.
17:36 If you go down this line here, we're going forward in time.
17:38 And instead of seeing these strong orange columns, we're now it's subtle,
17:43 but we're getting kind of a diagonal, a diagonal line going across,
17:47 which suggests this diagonal here can just about make out that pattern.
17:51 Then instead of going up and down, we're now going.
17:52 And that, again, just suggesting
17:55 that the weather patterns are starting to shift, that jet stream
17:57 is more likely to move around.
17:59 It's not suggesting that we're getting the high pressure at all.
18:03 As we head into the first part of August.
18:05 But it is suggesting that jet stream is starting to shift.
18:09 And so we could start to see those changes in the jet stream.
18:13 Another way of looking at that is the probabilistic pressure trend.
18:17 If we look at many models run the many, many times again,
18:20 we show this on the 10 day trend.
18:22 These are the previous computer model runs.
18:24 These are the dates going forward to the 1st of August is there
18:27 a lot of blue on the chart for the next weeks, again,
18:29 suggesting that low pressure is going to dominate for most of this week
18:34 into the start of next week. But look at that.
18:36 There are signs there as we head into August, albeit weak signs.
18:40 That's not a strong red.
18:41 That is definitely pink, but signs, nonetheless,
18:44 that higher pressure is likely to be closer to the UK.
18:47 So hint of a suggestion that we could start to see the weather
18:51 at least turning a bit drier.
18:52 It doesn't necessarily mean it's going to last for any length of time
18:56 and doesn't necessarily suggest much warmth,
18:59 but it does suggest perhaps that we could see something a little
19:01 or maybe less wet is the best way to describe it.
19:04 So, yes, these are all longer term projections,
19:07 as always, with longer term projections, they come with with caveats.
19:11 They come with uncertainty, but it's something we'll be keeping a close eye on.
19:15 Obviously, let us know in the comments.
19:18 As I said, I read all the comments from last week and the week before.
19:20 Lots of people do enjoy the cooler weather, don't necessarily enjoy the heat.
19:24 So let us know in the comments, what is your perfect temperature for summer?
19:28 Did you love June and hate July or vice versa?
19:32 Would you much rather it be cooler?
19:33 I suggest I know for one that I quite like it somewhere in between.
19:38 But, you know, let us know in the comments, what is your ideal summer temperature?
19:43 One more thing before we go and before we finish, don't forget to watch
19:46 the 10 day trends tomorrow as well.
19:48 We'll have more on that, some more details on next week's weather.
19:50 If you're off with the kids, I'll have more on that in tomorrow's 10 day trend.
19:54 But also, I thought I'd set you a little bit of homework.
19:58 There you go. For the summer holidays, just a couple of things to read about that heat
20:02 across the Mediterranean, there's been a study published today
20:07 suggesting that the heat in Europe
20:10 and across North America and across China so far this summer
20:15 wouldn't have happened or is virtually impossible to have happened
20:18 without human induced climate change.
20:21 And another study that I'd like you to read from Professor Richard Betts
20:24 about wildfires and how our changing climate is increasing
20:29 the chance of wildfires.
20:31 And this is the this is the one of the key points from that study.
20:36 The frequency and severity of fire weather has increased in recent decades
20:39 and is projected to escalate with each added increment of warming.
20:43 So there's a really good paper there that Professor Richard Betts wrote last week.
20:47 He works here in the Met Office, all about wildfires.
20:52 If you follow him on Twitter, you can find a link to that.
20:55 And also he retweeted the link to that attribution study as well.
21:00 So go and check those out. There you go.
21:01 A bit of homework for you to do.
21:03 Let me know in the comments if you want more homework
21:06 or if you'd like us to cover any other subjects on the Met Office Deep Dive.
21:10 As I say, we do read your comments and we do appreciate them very much.
21:14 So do keep them coming.
21:15 If you haven't hit the thumbs up, please do so.
21:19 Is that some kind of... Yay!
21:21 Anyway, yeah, do hit the thumbs up, do hit the like button and do hit the subscribe button.
21:26 And I think I'll probably shut up now.
21:28 Join Aidan for next week's Deep Dive next Tuesday.
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