Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Algeria... Which countries could join an expanded BRICS?
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00:00 Well, the BRICS Summit in Johannesburg is heading into its second day today, bringing
00:03 together the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
00:08 A big theme of this year's summit is expanding the block of emerging economies that's working
00:13 to be a counterweight to the dominance of the West around the world.
00:17 Now, that's a position that was reaffirmed during the opening remarks on Tuesday, with
00:21 China particularly throwing its weight behind expansion plans.
00:26 To talk more about the BRICS Summit now, we've got our Chief Foreign Affairs Editor Rob Parsons
00:29 on the set.
00:30 Rob, expansion is going to be a big issue this year.
00:33 What countries do you think are most likely to join the club?
00:36 Well, you're right.
00:37 Expansion is on the agenda.
00:38 Whether it will lead to new members or not after this meeting, we don't know for sure
00:42 yet.
00:43 But certainly, they're talking about it.
00:44 The reason they're talking about it is undoubtedly the fact that BRICS, since its creation in
00:50 2009, is perceived at least, particularly in the global south, as having been successful,
00:58 and particularly the creation of the New Development Bank and other institutions, is creating alternatives
01:03 to Western financial institutions.
01:06 So that is the attraction.
01:08 At the moment, it seems 23 countries so far have applied for membership, and 40 have expressed
01:16 an interest.
01:17 We don't know for sure which ones have applied, although there are a number that seem to be
01:22 on the list, including which will cause alarms, particularly in Washington, Iran, and Venezuela.
01:29 But leaving aside those, there are some heavyweights in there as well who would like to join, including
01:36 Saudi Arabia, who, if they were to join, would obviously add something substantial to BRICS.
01:44 Its geostrategic position, its economic position in the world would obviously be very important.
01:49 But also Ethiopia, one of the biggest economies in Africa, Algeria likewise, Indonesia in
01:57 Southeast Asia, another big player.
02:00 If they were to join, that would make a big difference to BRICS.
02:04 It would also change what BRICS is.
02:07 And I think that is part of what the debate is at the moment, is trying to understand
02:13 what direction they want BRICS to move in, what its new profile is going to be.
02:18 Because if this expansion were to happen, I imagine there will be some stumbling blocks.
02:23 What might be some obstacles to expansion?
02:25 Well, you know, there are quite a few, I think, but not least the fact that, as I was just
02:32 hinting at now, there's no clear understanding of what BRICS should be and what its future
02:38 should be, how it should develop, what are the lines of development.
02:41 There is fear, I think, on the part of some, that China wants to turn BRICS into a vehicle
02:46 for its own global ambitions.
02:49 And bear in mind that these are the five countries that form BRICS at the moment are all very,
02:55 very different, not just geographically, but also politically, economically, militarily.
03:01 Two military giants, Russia and China, and India increasingly becoming a military giant,
03:09 but South Africa and Brazil far from it.
03:11 And they all have different interests.
03:15 The suspicion, particularly on the part of India, that China is using or may use BRICS
03:20 for the furtherance of its ambitions, when India has its own ambitions.
03:25 It was very interesting to hear Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, talking about India
03:30 at BRICS just yesterday, saying that India was the world's fastest growing economy and
03:38 that it was going to be the driving force of the global economy.
03:42 This is a man who clearly has serious ambitions for its country, now the most populous country
03:47 in the world, having overtaken China.
03:50 It doesn't want to take a back seat to China.
03:53 But South Africa, Brazil and India are also very reluctant to allow BRICS to be turned
04:00 into some sort of opposition to the West.
04:03 These are countries that get a lot of their foreign direct investment from the West.
04:07 They don't want a clash.
04:09 They don't want a restoration of the Cold War.
04:12 So serious differences among them, how they resolve those differences, will depend on
04:16 large part, I think, what I was hinting at just a moment or two ago, how they perceive
04:20 the future of the organisation.