Raiders Insider Podcast Predicting the Playoffs, Champions and More
In the latest episode of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast, we make our NFL season predictions for the playoffs, Super Bowl, and more.
Transcript
00:00 Hey everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, Las Vegas
00:06 Readers Insider Podcast.
00:08 I am joined by my friend, my dear friend, the editor and publisher of thespun.com.
00:15 He's also a colleague.
00:16 Remember this, The Spun is so much fun.
00:19 If it has anything to do with sports, now I was recently corrected by one of our fans.
00:25 He said if it has anything remotely to do with sports and it's pop culture, The Spun
00:31 covers it.
00:32 It's one of the best websites about sports in all of the country.
00:35 It's in my favorites.
00:36 I read it every day.
00:37 The great Matt Holadek.
00:38 How are you doing, Matt?
00:39 I'm doing well.
00:40 We are one week out from the first game, so it feels great.
00:44 You know, buddy, we are literally a week out and you and I are going to do our predictions
00:49 today and man, let's get right at it.
00:52 So let's start.
00:53 In the AFC West, where I think the Bills win it.
00:58 I think the Bills are very good.
01:00 I think they're one of the top teams in all the National Football League.
01:04 I'm riding with the Bills winning the AFC West.
01:07 Your thoughts?
01:08 East, you mean?
01:09 I mean, I'm sorry.
01:10 Did I say West?
01:11 Okay, yes, East.
01:12 I apologize.
01:13 I'm an idiot.
01:14 Sorry.
01:15 Yes, I know Buffalo is on the East Coast.
01:17 I know.
01:18 Well, very quickly, I'll say the first thing before I get into the prediction.
01:22 I can't remember in all my years either writing about or watching the NFL a conference like
01:30 this year's AFC.
01:32 There's 16 teams in the conference and you could tell me, you could convince me before
01:38 the season that 14 teams have a chance to make the playoffs, either will make it or
01:42 a scenario where they could make it, which is a kind of a depth and competitiveness I
01:46 don't think I've ever seen in a conference ever up to this point.
01:52 Now, my first prediction in the AFC East, this is a really interesting one.
01:56 I went back and forth because I think this division is going to get three teams in.
02:02 It could go a number of different ways, but I am sticking it out with the Bills to win
02:07 the division again.
02:10 I think that maybe the Bills are in a better spot this year than they were last year, where
02:16 everybody last year was on them.
02:18 They were the Super Bowl betting favorites and everyone was thinking it was their chance
02:23 to kind of break the curse.
02:25 Maybe they're better off now where they're a little bit under the radar.
02:28 A lot of people talking about the Jets, of course, a lot of people talking about the
02:31 Dolphins.
02:32 So I'm going with the Bills to stay on top in the AFC East.
02:36 It must be nuts because I don't think the Jets have any shot at winning that.
02:42 I understand they're in hard knocks.
02:44 I understand they got Aaron Rodgers, but dear Lord, you know, whatever.
02:50 Everywhere Aaron goes, I mean, I've been talking about this for over a year, that there's contention
02:57 with his teammates.
02:58 It's never him when something doesn't go right.
03:02 One of the things, and I think you know who I'm talking about, but if not, I'll tell you
03:07 off air, I know a guy that played with Patrick Mahomes for a long time and he said that when
03:13 Patrick came in, it was, "Oh, hey guys, my bad, my bad."
03:17 He won the veterans with the way he led.
03:21 And he said, you know, we would have killed ourselves for that guy.
03:23 We loved him.
03:24 And Aaron Rodgers has a Super Bowl, but how many other years has the guy woefully failed
03:30 or in the playoffs and didn't do anything in the playoffs?
03:33 Listen, I think you got a good quarterback who's won a Super Bowl, who's won some MVPs,
03:40 who is selfish in a team sport.
03:42 I just don't, I don't see the Jets at all.
03:44 All right, let's go to the AFC North.
03:46 I think this one's pretty easy.
03:47 As long as he's healthy, and I think he will be, I'm riding with the Natty all the way.
03:52 Yeah, again, this is a really competitive division, but I am sticking with Bengals.
03:56 I think that, like you said, as long as Joe Burrow is in the lineup and by all measures,
04:02 he looks like he's going to be good to go.
04:03 And, you know, as long as there's nothing setback with the cap or anything like that,
04:08 I think that they have the best roster in the division, they have the best quarterback
04:11 in the division.
04:12 I think Cincinnati wins the AFC North again.
04:16 When you go to the AFC South, this is not really a surprise.
04:20 I don't know of anybody that isn't saying this.
04:22 I'm going with Jacksonville.
04:24 I like the way that they were trending up.
04:27 I like the way that, you know, their quarterback's developing.
04:30 I love their coach.
04:31 There's nothing about Jacksonville I don't like.
04:34 I mean, there's holes.
04:35 I don't think they're a Super Bowl team yet, but I'm going with Jacksonville.
04:39 I'm riding with the Trevor Lawrences.
04:41 Yeah, I think that the Titans will keep it close.
04:45 They'll be in the race.
04:47 They always seem to find a way to win eight, nine games every year at least.
04:51 But I do think Jacksonville winds up winning that division.
04:54 And I really think, I think Trevor Lawrence could have a massive year this year.
04:59 I think if he takes another leap under Doug Peterson.
05:02 Lastly, the AFC West, Denver, I think Sean Payton's a good coach.
05:08 I don't think he's elite like Parcells or Jimmy Johnson or those type of things.
05:12 But I do think he's a good coach in the category of a Pete Carroll.
05:16 So I think he's gonna absolutely have an impact.
05:18 I know that there's injuries there.
05:20 I don't think Russell Wilson is the guy he used to be.
05:23 The Chargers, I think, are a very good football team with a very bad coach.
05:28 He costs them games every year.
05:29 And I don't think you can be a playoff team with a playoff contender.
05:34 I think you can get in the playoffs, but not contend.
05:38 The Raiders, I still think are a year away.
05:40 And to me, to be the man, you gotta beat the man to quote Ric Flair.
05:45 And Kansas City is that team.
05:47 Listen, I thought last year they'd take a step back.
05:50 I was clearly wrong, clearly wrong.
05:52 No excuses, I was clearly wrong.
05:54 To me, it's Kansas City taking the AFC West.
05:59 Your thoughts?
06:00 >> Yeah, I can't predict anyone to unseat them.
06:04 I know until it actually happens.
06:06 And I know that you can say, well, it's a cop out.
06:08 You're supposed to predict what's gonna happen.
06:10 But until I see it happen, I'm gonna say that they're gonna win that division
06:16 forever and ever, as long as they have Mahomes and Andy Reid.
06:19 I know that they did, again, they lost some guys.
06:23 I noticed some concern about the receiving core, but
06:25 they always find a way to figure it out.
06:28 They have Mahomes, they have Travis Kelsey.
06:30 Andy Reid always gets the most out of guys there.
06:34 I think the Chiefs win the West again.
06:36 >> We're not done, we're still gonna go back and give wild cards and
06:40 Super Bowls and all that.
06:41 But let's go on to the NFC East.
06:43 I'm sorry, I really like Philly.
06:46 They have very few holes, if any.
06:48 And if they're holes, they are a pinhole at the bottom of a bucket, so
06:53 it's still holding water.
06:54 Philly to me in the NFC East, your thoughts.
06:57 >> There hasn't been a repeat champion in the NFC East,
07:02 I think in 20 years or so.
07:04 The Eagles did it in '03 and '04, '02, '03, '04.
07:10 I think they do it this year.
07:11 I think that the Cowboys have a very solid roster.
07:16 They got some star power.
07:17 I think the Giants are trending in the right direction.
07:20 I think Washington could be sneaky and interesting, but
07:23 I think that Philly ultimately has the depth.
07:26 They have the coaching, they have the full roster to win that division.
07:30 >> We now go to the NFC Norris, where this is gonna surprise a lot of people.
07:35 I know that the Detroit Lions are the darling pick.
07:38 I'm from Michigan, I was born in Michigan.
07:41 You in Michigan, you are raised a Lion fan, so
07:44 you know the curse of being a Lion fan.
07:46 >> [LAUGH] >> I'm not a Lion fan anymore,
07:48 cuz now that I have friends on every team in the NFL, I just, I root for
07:52 my friends to do well.
07:54 But I don't think the Lions, I'm sorry, I will never believe in the Lions.
07:59 I learned too much over my 52 years on this planet.
08:03 I'm going with the Green Bay Packers.
08:05 I think they're loaded.
08:06 I think they got a ton of talent.
08:07 Do they have an inexperienced quarterback?
08:09 For sure, but there is so much talent.
08:12 Aaron Rodgers is gone.
08:13 It's like cutting away, I wanna be nice.
08:17 It's like cutting away some dead weight.
08:20 Again, for the reasons I already voiced, I'm going with the Green Bay Packers.
08:24 I know this isn't popular, but it's what I think.
08:26 >> I have the Packers as kind of a sleeper team this year.
08:31 I am, and I don't love doing this, but I am picking the Lions.
08:36 Because my thing is this, if they're not gonna do it this year,
08:41 they're almost never gonna do it.
08:43 Because I think they have on paper maybe the best chance to do it,
08:49 to win the division out of all the four teams.
08:51 And if they're not gonna do it this year, it's never gonna happen.
08:56 I can't believe I'm trusting the Lions too, but I'll tell you why.
08:58 I don't trust the Bears to be any good.
09:02 I know they might be a little improved, but
09:03 I don't know if the Bears will be a playoff team.
09:06 I think the Vikings will be competitive.
09:08 I think the Vikings could potentially get to a wild card spot, but
09:11 I think they're gonna take a step back because they won a lot of close games in
09:15 2022.
09:16 And now it comes down to the Lions and the Packers.
09:20 And I have both teams in the playoffs.
09:21 That's just a little foreshadowing to later in the show.
09:23 I have both teams in the playoffs.
09:25 I have the Lions winning the division.
09:26 >> My man, I just warned you about picking the Lions.
09:33 >> I know, I didn't wanna pick them, but it just kinda came down that way.
09:38 >> That's hilarious.
09:40 Okay, next we come to the NFC South or New Orleans.
09:44 I think that's a really good team.
09:45 I think Derek Carr's a very good quarterback.
09:48 Do I think that they're gonna make a big push and go to a Super Bowl?
09:51 Not a chance, but I think they do win the NFC South, your thoughts?
09:56 >> Yeah, that's a division that when you look at the rest of the teams,
10:00 I can't- >> Somebody's gotta win it.
10:03 >> Yeah, someone's gotta win it.
10:04 I can see a scenario where this division,
10:08 every year there's a division where people complain that the division champ gets
10:11 to host a playoff game.
10:13 I can see that this being this year's team, this year's division.
10:17 Although I do think the Saints have a legitimately pretty solid roster, and
10:21 I think that Carr is obviously an upgrade there.
10:26 But my concern with the Saints, I don't want Dennis Allen as a head coach,
10:30 think he's a very good defensive coordinator.
10:32 But I still think they win that division.
10:33 I can't pick Carolina with a rookie QB, even though I like Bryce Young.
10:38 Can't pick the Bucs with Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask,
10:40 even though they still have some players left over from Super Bowl on their roster.
10:45 And I can't trust the Falcons, so it's the Saints by default almost, but
10:49 I do think they win that division.
10:51 >> All right, now we come to the NFC West,
10:53 where there were rumors flying that Bosa was gonna get traded.
10:58 I made some phone calls to people I trust within the organization.
11:01 They don't believe it one bit.
11:03 I've looked at several teams here.
11:07 I watched San Francisco up close in joint practices.
11:10 They look terrible.
11:12 But when you go back over their track record,
11:15 they traditionally look terrible and then come on strong.
11:19 I'm gonna go with San Francisco cuz of all the talent.
11:22 I like Purdy, but man, this was a hard one for me, but
11:26 I'm gonna go with San Francisco.
11:28 Especially when you look at their traditional trajectory,
11:31 which starts slow, goes high.
11:32 You look at the teams in that division,
11:35 I think San Francisco wins the NFC West, your thoughts?
11:38 >> I think San Francisco's roster is the most talented in that division,
11:44 without a doubt.
11:45 >> Without a doubt.
11:46 >> I am gonna go a little bold here, though.
11:48 I'm taking the Seahawks to win the NFC West.
11:51 I think San Francisco makes the playoffs.
11:53 They can do damage to the playoffs.
11:55 I'm not saying they're gonna be bad, but
11:57 you have to go a little bit bold somewhere, I guess, other than the Lions.
12:01 And I'm taking the Seahawks to win the NFC West.
12:05 All right, so now we go to the wild cards.
12:07 Let's go to the AFC, where I pick Pittsburgh to get a wild card.
12:10 I think Kenny Pickett's the real deal.
12:12 I'm never gonna bet against Mike Tomlin, I'm going with Pittsburgh.
12:15 Baltimore, I think they go out and get Lamar.
12:19 Finally, he's got some real weapons around him.
12:22 I like the guy, I like his game, I like the way he plays.
12:26 He's being a Spartan as much as it pains me.
12:29 I love John Harbaugh, which it pains me, but
12:33 I have so much respect for the Harbaugh's coaches, I'm just being funny.
12:36 But I got Baltimore, and then it comes down to me,
12:40 to the Raiders or the Chargers for that third playoff spot.
12:45 Now, I wanna say this, I predicted the Raiders to win nine games if
12:50 Jimmy Garoppolo stays healthy for 17.
12:53 I'm still there, although I'm doing my research,
12:57 cuz I'm gonna be doing a podcast next Monday talking about my predictions.
13:02 But they are better at this point than I thought they would be.
13:07 I'm gonna be changing my prediction a little bit.
13:12 If they get to ten wins, then I think they get the wild card.
13:17 If they don't get to ten wins,
13:18 then I think the Chargers will probably get the wild card.
13:21 I think the Chargers, they still have a coach that's gonna cost them a game or
13:25 two, and I don't think the Raiders do.
13:29 So I think this is where they're right on that bubble.
13:32 I'm not predicting a playoff team, but
13:36 I'm saying if they can get one surprise, then I think they get in.
13:40 So it's Chargers is who I'm leaning towards, but
13:43 I'm certainly not ruling out the Raiders, again, nine wins.
13:47 Your thoughts?
13:48 I don't think they get in with nine.
13:49 They're gonna have to steal a tenth.
13:52 And in my prediction podcast that's coming up,
13:54 I went through earlier in the year, as you know, and
13:56 gave my predictions for every game.
13:58 I'm gonna be making some changes with that.
14:01 So but they're gonna have to find a way to steal a tenth win, and
14:05 then I think they would get in.
14:07 Your thoughts?
14:08 >> I agree. I think that, I was sitting down thinking about this before.
14:13 I think you may even see a team with ten wins stay at home in the AFC this year,
14:17 if it's as deep as it may look.
14:19 I think you have to win ten games, though, to get into the playoffs in the AFC.
14:24 That's to feel at least somewhat safe or feel like you did enough.
14:28 When I look at my wildcard teams, you and I both agree on Pittsburgh.
14:33 I think that every year, no matter what they're doing, a quarterback or
14:38 what weaknesses they may have, they're eight, nine wins.
14:42 They're in the mix.
14:44 Mike Tomlin does a great job there.
14:47 I noticed he complains about the lack of playoff success recently, but
14:51 they're always in the mix.
14:52 I think they'll be in the mix this year.
14:54 I don't think they're good enough to make a deep run in the playoffs.
14:57 But I think if Kenny Pickett plays just capably, they'll be there.
15:02 They'll be a wildcard team.
15:04 The other two wildcard teams, sorry, what were you gonna say?
15:07 No, no, go ahead.
15:08 The other two wildcard teams, it's really tough.
15:11 Like I said before, I can see you could make a case for
15:15 so many different teams making the playoffs in the AFC.
15:19 I am, and I'm a little concerned about this pick because of the history of
15:26 the franchise, I'm picking the Dolphins to get back as the wildcard team.
15:31 There's a lot of people talking about them as a sleep/soup bowl contender.
15:35 Don't know if I can trust that because Tua with the health issues,
15:38 even though I think he's a pretty good quarterback when he's in there.
15:41 But I like the talent they have defensively.
15:43 Obviously, offensively, they have Jayla Wild and Tyreek Hill.
15:47 I'm picking the Dolphins to be a wildcard team.
15:49 My last wildcard spot came down to the Ravens, the Chargers, and the Jets.
15:58 And I think that when you look at, I think the Ravens have
16:02 the best organization of the three, they have the best head coach of the three.
16:06 The Chargers, I am intrigued, even though I'm not a huge fan of Brandon Stanley,
16:11 I'm intrigued to see Justin Herbert with their new office coordinator,
16:14 Keller Moore.
16:14 I think he could be dangerous there.
16:16 And then you have the Jets out in New York.
16:19 And I truthfully don't know what to think about them just yet,
16:23 cuz I think that they have the talent to be a playoff team.
16:28 I think that they have the roster.
16:30 I mean, they were 7-4 last year before it imploded with Zach Wilson and
16:34 Mike White as quarterback, and now they have Aaron Rodgers.
16:39 I thought about this a lot, and even though I came to a decision,
16:43 I'm still kinda thinking about this.
16:44 I'm going with the Jets as the last wildcard team.
16:46 And I'll tell you why.
16:47 It could implode.
16:51 It could definitely implode, because there's so much hype around this team.
16:54 There's so much anticipation.
16:58 And a lot of times with Jets, obviously we know the way they let their fans down a lot
17:04 anyway, but it seems like in the past when they've been expected to be good is
17:08 when the letdown can be particularly harsh.
17:12 I think they make playoffs as a wildcard.
17:15 I am not buying them as a Super Bowl contender.
17:18 I think they got a couple of holes still.
17:20 And I think that Aaron Rodgers has been on better teams
17:25 that didn't make the Super Bowl in the past.
17:27 So I'm not buying them as a Super Bowl contender.
17:29 But I think they get the ten wins.
17:31 I think they get the last wildcard spot.
17:33 But again, I could be totally wrong on that.
17:37 >> All right, now we go to the NFC where I've got Dallas,
17:42 Minnesota, and Seattle all picking up wildcards.
17:44 >> I have Dallas as well.
17:48 I think that they could challenge for the NFCs.
17:52 But I think that they will ultimately fall a little short of Philly, but
17:55 I expect them to be double digit wins again and in the playoffs.
17:59 I don't have Seattle as the winning division, but I have San Francisco.
18:02 I can't see a scenario where, even with some questions to quarterback,
18:07 even with, if they don't win a division like I'm predicting,
18:11 I can't see a scenario where San Francisco doesn't make the playoffs.
18:16 And in my third team, I think, like I said,
18:17 I think the Vikings take a little bit of a step back.
18:20 I think they just missed the playoffs.
18:21 I have the Packers getting in as a wildcard.
18:23 I think people are sleeping on the Packers.
18:26 I don't know what Jordan Love will be as a quarterback yet, but
18:29 that roster isn't barren.
18:31 And I think that they seem to have a good vibe, good chemistry in the offseason.
18:37 If Jordan Love is just solid and a competent quarterback this year,
18:43 they have the players around them and the coaching around them to be a playoff team.
18:48 So I have Dallas, I have San Francisco,
18:51 cuz I have Seattle winning that division, and I have Green Bay as my three wildcards.
18:55 >> Okay, now we come back in.
18:58 I think Kansas City beats the Natty in Arrowhead in
19:03 the AFC Championship game to go to the Super Bowl.
19:05 I think Philly, and a little bit of a surprise,
19:13 but I think Philly knocks off Seattle in the NFC Championship game,
19:19 even though I have Seattle in as a wildcard.
19:21 I still think Philly wins it.
19:23 Then I think we go to the Super Bowl.
19:26 And I'm gonna tell you, it goes against everything I stand for.
19:30 You gotta beat to be the man, you gotta beat the man.
19:33 I'm riding with Philly to win the Super Bowl against Kansas City.
19:37 Your thoughts?
19:38 >> Well, if that happens, Philly did get a chance against them last year, so
19:41 that rematch factor could be at play.
19:44 I think that would be the first rematch since Cowboys-Bills, back-to-back years.
19:48 I look at the AFC, and I have Kansas City winning it.
19:53 I had it going through Arrowhead again, and
19:55 I don't see any of these teams being able to go in there and beat them.
20:01 So I'm going with Kansas City over Buffalo in Arrowhead this year,
20:08 in the AFC title game.
20:09 The NFC is where I have, again, a little bit of a wrinkle.
20:13 I have Seattle beating Philly in the NFC title game, and
20:18 playing Kansas City in the Super Bowl.
20:21 But I have Kansas City winning.
20:23 I think that we haven't had back-to-back champs in the NFL in about 20 years
20:29 since the Patriots.
20:30 It's really, really incredibly hard to repeat.
20:33 The Chiefs obviously got to back-to-back Super Bowls, but
20:39 lost the second one already with Reed and Mahomes.
20:42 I just think that Mahomes is gonna continue to add to his legacy, and
20:48 I think that he's going to, we're almost due for somebody to go back-to-back.
20:54 And I think that they're a good candidate to do it.
20:56 So I think that in a big game, you have a really good coach, Pete Carroll.
21:02 You have a good roster with Seattle.
21:04 I think Geno Smith, obviously, if I'm picking Seattle to be in the Super Bowl,
21:07 I'm picking Geno Smith to build on what he did last year and
21:11 have another good season.
21:12 But I can't take Geno and Pete Carroll over Andy Reed and Mahomes and
21:18 Travis Kelsey and that group in a big spot.
21:20 So I think it's gonna be Kansas City over Seattle in the Super Bowl.
21:23 >> Right, quickly, when we made our predictions when the schedule came out,
21:28 do you remember how many games you predicted the Raiders to win?
21:30 I said nine if Jimmy was healthy for 17.
21:33 >> I think I said seven.
21:35 That seems about right.
21:37 >> You did? >> Yeah, that's right.
21:38 >> So based on what you've seen and how the Raiders have gone through all of it,
21:43 do you stand on that seven commitment, or
21:45 do you think they're better than you thought?
21:48 >> I think that's at least, I could see going to eight.
21:51 I don't know if they can get to that nine or
21:55 ten win area to get to playoff contention.
21:59 But I do think they're gonna be, I'll say eight wins.
22:03 And they'll be at least in the mix.
22:06 And it'll be a season where fans can legitimately feel,
22:10 even if they've missed the playoffs, if they win eight or if I'm off and
22:14 they get to nine, you'll feel like, okay, we're building in the right direction.
22:17 Because again, like we said a bunch of times,
22:20 2024 is really the year where you wanna see them take a leap.
22:23 >> I'm gonna tell you this, I thought they were a nine win team if Jimmy stayed
22:30 healthy for 17.
22:32 I've seen nothing from them, and I'm at the OTAs,
22:36 the mini camps, everyday training camp.
22:38 I've seen nothing for them to lower my expectations.
22:43 I think they're, and so I can see nine wins, possibly getting to ten.
22:49 Can't see more than that.
22:51 And I like where you said, I can see eight maybe getting to nine.
22:53 I think that they're trending in the right direction.
22:56 Matt, next week, brother, when we do this show together,
23:00 we are gonna be talking football is back.
23:04 Let's get going.
23:05 I can't wait, brother.
23:05 We'll see you soon at Fulham.
23:07 Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, Las Vegas Raider Insider Podcast.
23:11 I'm Hondo Carpenter, part of the Fans First Sports Network.
23:13 Thanks for joining us.
23:14 And for my good colleague, the one and only, the great Matt Heladick from
23:18 thespun.com.
23:18 Thanks, everybody.
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