Kick and Chase: Rugby World Cup 2023 preview show
The Kick and Chase panel bring you all the build-up to the Rugby World Cup. How will the home nations fare?
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00:00 [Music]
00:05 Hello and welcome to National World's Kick and Chase Rugby Union podcast.
00:09 You've got three of National World's best writers here to discuss the upcoming Rugby World Cup.
00:14 Myself, Martin Simpson, representing Scotland.
00:17 We've got Phil Bramley from the Derbyshire Times, a Sealsharks supporter and regular at Twickenham.
00:23 And representing Wales, we've got James Copley, a Maccam born and bred,
00:28 but with Welsh allegiances through his father.
00:30 The three of us are going to be previewing the upcoming World Cup,
00:33 which kicks off this Friday with France against the All Blacks.
00:37 And we're going to be looking at the chances of Scotland, England, Wales in their opening matches and for the tournament.
00:43 So, Phil, I think maybe let's start with England.
00:48 We're probably going to have a similar vein of questioning on Wales here.
00:51 How does it feel being an England fan at the moment?
00:54 I imagine it's hugely frustrating because there's such a good opportunity in that half of the draw to get to the final
01:02 and they're just not firing on all cylinders at the moment.
01:06 It's really ironic. I mean, the big question is what on earth has Steve Wortham done in a form of past life to deserve this run of bad luck?
01:13 Because, I mean, setting aside the way that England are playing, which is a cure for insomnia straight away,
01:22 the kind of injuries that they've had are really kind of setting back the whole spine of the team.
01:25 He's basically lost his starting 8, 9, 10 with Van Portley and then a belly getting banned.
01:30 And then obviously the whole Owen Farrell circus that's been going around.
01:34 But I think more worrying as a fan has been the kind of the lack of any sort of kind of cohesion or style or any kind of game plan that's discernible.
01:46 I understand where he's coming from. He's not had much time with the team.
01:49 He's not had much time with his coaching group. Wiggy's kind of joined quite late in that side on the attack.
01:55 But ironically, it's been the defence that's probably been the biggest worry.
01:59 And everyone loves Sir Kev. Kevin Sinfield is such a legend for all that he's done with Rob Burrow.
02:05 And quite clearly, he knows his stuff. But for whatever reason, it isn't working.
02:10 And I think what's really key for me is that defence really is based on two things.
02:13 It's based on hard work and trust, whether you're going for a blitz or a drift or a scramble defence.
02:20 All you need to do really to be good defence is get off the floor, get in the line, but trust the guy either side of you.
02:25 It's going to make his tackle so you don't have to step out your line and help him out.
02:28 And if you do that, defence by and large has to be unlocked by a bit of a moment of genius.
02:32 But England look like they don't trust each other. Either they don't trust the system.
02:36 I know they've not played together that much. And they talk about the centre combinations.
02:39 They're kind of perennial. Who's going to start in the centres for England?
02:43 But it just to me doesn't look like they've got that kind of cohesion, that go forward.
02:47 And then on the flip side, on the attack, if you go back to when England were at their kind of most potent back in 2019 playing New Zealand,
02:53 they had huge ball carriers. They had both Billy Van der Poel and Mako Van der Poel and Mano coming round the corner.
03:01 But all those guys could also, when they get to the game, they could smash you, but they could also offload.
03:05 And England just seem to have gone to the 'let's just run into people' type.
03:09 There's nobody even running off shoulders to take balls into contact, other than maybe the first 15 minutes,
03:14 possibly, against that in that Fiji game where they started to run a few lines and they actually hit some holes.
03:19 But even then, that was more about individuals making gain line than it was about a cohesive attack plan.
03:25 And our under-16s at Chesterfield, we were in pods off 9 and 10 and England didn't even have that sort of idea.
03:32 They just basically give it to this guy and let him run into another big guy.
03:35 So, yeah, tough times. Although, as you say, ironically, because of the way the draw works, scrape a couple of wins.
03:42 And England could potentially be stoned down the barrel of quarter-final or even the semi-final with a toss of a coin.
03:46 So, really interesting to see how things kick off this weekend.
03:51 Phil, what did you make of Eddie Jones's comments about the depth of England and not coming through?
03:58 I read those with a wry smile. I thought that was some pre-tournament shenanigans there.
04:02 It's classic Eddie. I mean, Eddie is all smoke and mirrors.
04:06 But again, he's brilliant at that because all of a sudden everyone's talking about Bill Sweeney and not maybe about things that he did or he didn't do.
04:13 No one's talking about the fact that he's only taking Carter Gordon with him and he's left potentially all his other fly halves behind.
04:19 Everyone's talking about Eddie Jones and the Danny Cipriani stuff as well, which I mean, I know to be fair,
04:24 it was kind of brought to the press conference, not something that he's gone out of, but for all his faults,
04:29 I think Eddie Jones is brilliant at taking the pressure off his players by making everything about him.
04:34 I don't think necessarily that he's a narcissist, although you may well think that.
04:39 But whether it's by choice or by his own personal personality, what he does is brilliant because it's all about him.
04:47 It's not about, oh, how things are going to go with Australia with a new captain and Will Skelton and Carter Gordon and all the rest of it.
04:52 All of a sudden it's just like Eddie Jones is slagging off Bill Sweeney and that's the story.
04:55 You don't have to like him. He's the kind of character that rugby needs because he just adds an extra spice to these games.
05:02 Like when he was England's in charge of England as a Scotland fan, just love getting one over Eddie Jones.
05:08 Yeah, because he just gets under your skin so much, doesn't he?
05:11 And what he's done here brilliantly with, you know, with respect, all the quality and the favorites are in one half of the draw.
05:19 And this half of the draw we're talking about England or Australia, you know, one of them is going to kind of just scrape their way maybe through to the final or the other teams will have a chance.
05:29 We've now got a potential quarterfinal or semifinal meeting that's going to be one of the sort of meatiest games of the tournament.
05:36 If England and Australia meet up, and I think that's really just going to be class.
05:41 But just one other thing I wanted to touch on, England, Phil, was the Owen Farrell debacle, which really just it's been this distraction that no one needed.
05:52 I mean, look, I don't know if anyone disagrees with me, but the red card should have never been overturned.
05:58 It was a clear as day red card and it should just been that and it should have been a free game ban.
06:03 And Owen Farrell would have missed the first game of the tournament and the second game would have been suspended.
06:09 I might not be exactly right on that.
06:11 And then we would have just not been talking about it and England could have just gotten on and prepared for the first game without him.
06:17 And instead we've had this, oh, what's going on?
06:19 Who knows kind of thing. And it's just been needlessly complicated.
06:24 Yeah, yeah, it has become a circus.
06:27 But I think part of the problem is that Farrell is so central, I think, to England's, to this England team set up and the way it plays.
06:35 Look, I'm a Sharks fan. I was at Twickenham for the Premiership final sale against Saracens.
06:41 George Ford obviously signed for us and played brilliantly.
06:45 But hats off. Fazz was, Fazz won effectively that game for them.
06:49 He put them all right places. He is a general.
06:52 Everybody talks about the standards that he brings into training, the fact that he lifts the whole team.
06:57 And it's interesting, I do wonder, Saracens have changed the way they play.
07:01 And from what I've been reading recently, it was mostly through Fazz going to McCaul and saying, look, we need to be a bit more expansive.
07:09 We need to expand our game. Other teams are playing, obviously, in the back of the Leicester loss in the Premiership last year.
07:14 And I do wonder if things keep going this way, whether there will be a little bit of player power comes into it.
07:19 And Fazz is that kind of guy. He is that coach on the pitch.
07:22 If he goes to Borswick and says, look, this kind of kick and chase isn't working for whatever reason, we need to free ourselves up.
07:28 Ironically, Farrell could be the one that actually changes England from this kind of dour kick and chase, smash and grab, to something that's a little bit more exciting.
07:36 James, Wales, on you go. Anything you want to get off your chest, mate?
07:43 Yes, it's very interesting at the moment. There's a lot of uncertainty.
07:50 I couldn't name Wales as 15 for their opening game.
07:55 They're in the right side of the draw, which is positive.
07:59 Obviously, they've got Australia in the group. Fiji are a potential banana skin.
08:04 I think the Buckies actually will have that one quite close.
08:07 They should beat Portugal. They should beat Georgia. But of course, they have lost to Georgia in recent times.
08:14 I think Wales are arguably the hardest team to predict in the World Cup because they could turn up and they could be very solid.
08:23 They could go Warren Ball and go through the stages and be defensively sound.
08:28 They're obviously trying to bring through a new crop of players, I think, which is the right decision and it's pleasing.
08:36 But yes, there's just so much uncertainty and they could either turn up and be fantastic or they could turn up and be pretty poor.
08:43 I think the mood in Wales is one of calm, caution and restraint because obviously, this is the history with Fiji in the past.
08:52 And everyone's talking about how England and Wales are in an easy side of the draw in the World Cup.
08:59 But the combinations for Wales really haven't developed yet.
09:04 Perhaps they will come in the next six nations. Maybe Warren's got a better idea than he's letting on.
09:09 But even looking at the number 10 position, will Dan Bigger start? Will Anscombe start?
09:14 Toss of a coin, I couldn't tell you. Yeah, it's very up in the air.
09:20 I do wonder if Warren Gatland's maybe enjoying that uncertainty, though, the unpredictability of Wales.
09:26 Because if you think when Wales have been successful under Warren Gatland, you could hang the hat on the 15, really, if they were all fit.
09:34 They had such sort of stoic, reliable, hard, seasoned professionals that you look at the semifinal against South Africa.
09:43 In the last World Cup, Wales were a great team and they lost an arm wrestle narrowly.
09:47 But South Africa probably just had the number and there wasn't too much sort of X-Factor magic in that Wales team.
09:55 I just wonder if maybe we're going to see a little bit more of that and whether the sort of relishing this unpredictability
10:00 that nobody really knows what's going to come from them and that might work in their favour to begin with.
10:07 But it's one of those, you know, Wales could exit at the pool stage in absolute disgrace or they could suddenly find themselves in a World Cup semifinal.
10:15 It really could go one of two ways. And I think we're going to learn a lot, both with England and Wales, in the opening game.
10:21 I think we'll learn a hell of a lot.
10:24 How important to Wales do you think the sort of that remainder of the old guard from the Halcyon days must feel like a long time ago?
10:36 But I'm thinking of guys here, James, like in the backs, obviously, we've mentioned Dan Biggar.
10:41 You've also got, say, Lee Halfpenny, George North, probably to a greater extent, Liam Williams.
10:46 In the forwards, you know, much changed from what we recognise, but you've still got guys there like Dan Liddy and Tolupe Faletau.
10:55 Do you think they're going to have to show up back to their best or do you think it's going to be more about the new generation in this World Cup?
11:03 I think it's really difficult to say. It's clearly a transition squad. It's good to have that sprinkling of experience.
11:08 I don't think it can do any harm. You know, the lads you've mentioned were sort of around the last World Cup campaign, which was a real positive for Wales.
11:18 So I think that does help. But Warren Gatland symbolised this by his picking of the dual captains, both young lads.
11:25 It's certainly ushering in a new era. And you know, Wales in 2011, wasn't it, was a similar story.
11:34 Obviously, they lost to France in the semi-finals. There's a lot of parallels there, Sam Warburton, a young captain.
11:41 I don't know. I think it's a clear signal that beyond this World Cup, certainly, that we will be looking at a very, very different Wales squad.
11:52 It just feels like, you know, George North, Lee Halfpenny, Liam Williams, sort of last Tehran away, Faletau.
11:58 I think that their own merit, don't get me wrong, but Wales need to bring through the next generation in terms of those big hitters.
12:07 You know, again, I go back to the 10 position, but there isn't too much depth below Anscombe and Dan Biggar in terms of real test match quality.
12:16 So that'll be an interesting conundrum over the years. And as I say, they need to start producing some forwards and some forwards quickly.
12:21 I think that the green shoots of recovery are there, just in terms of the mass and the technical skills as well.
12:27 But it's, you know, it is easy to say it's a transition phase in Welsh rugby, but it really does feel like that.
12:34 However, the flip side to that is that if this World Cup doesn't go well, Welsh rugby tends to eat itself.
12:42 And we've seen that with, well, over the past couple of years with the problems structurally in Welsh rugby, which boils down to the regions.
12:51 We could talk all day about that, but it's imperative really for Rugby of Wales that Wales have a good show in this World Cup to sort of make sure everybody's going in the right direction and everybody's happy.
13:02 Otherwise, there'll be a sort of, you know, a real root and branch review of everything happening in Welsh rugby.
13:11 One over one.
13:12 Another one, yeah. It's something that happens once every six months.
13:16 And ironically, nothing actually seems to really happen.
13:19 I know there was a couple of reductions to the cap law and stuff like that last time and some adjustment to the pay structure.
13:31 But, you know, the debate in Wales is still about four regions versus three regions and all of this sort of stuff.
13:36 So whether that's resolved in my lifetime, I don't know.
13:40 Let's switch over to the other half of the draw then.
13:45 So if you'll just allow me a moment.
13:50 I mean, if this doesn't demonstrate that we need to rethink how the World Cup draw is structured, I don't know what does.
13:58 I'm not so sure. I think actually it makes it so exciting because normally you get to World Cup and you go, oh, the first couple of weeks are boring.
14:04 They're going to get through and you simply kick into life until you get to the knockout stages.
14:09 Well, ironically now, because every match becomes critical and ironically on the flip side, on the other half, because England and Wales have dropped down and some of those tiered teams have become so good, every match becomes crucial.
14:20 I think ironically, this World Cup, every game you're going to watch now has got something riding on it.
14:24 Whereas in the past, there have been a lot of dead rubbers or a lot of ones where you kind of just rocked up and said, yeah, I have a few points, but they're going to win it by 20 points.
14:30 We'll come back next week.
14:32 I'm not a Scotland fan.
14:34 I love that we've got a real opportunity that a team like Fiji could get out of the groups or a team like Argentina.
14:45 Argentina could potentially go as far as the semis or even the finals.
14:49 And that's brilliant.
14:51 But at the same time, by the time we get to the quarterfinals, we're going to have lost one of Scotland, Ireland or South Africa, three of the top five nations in the world.
15:00 They are going to come up against the other two of the top five nations in the world.
15:04 And by the time we get to the semis, you're going to be without some of the absolute biggest teams in the world.
15:11 And yeah, that whole half of the draw is just going to be nothing but action.
15:14 And it's brilliant.
15:16 It is what it is.
15:18 But if you're going to seed and structure the draw in this way, you need to do it an absolute maximum of one year in advance.
15:27 You can't do it as far in advance as they have because we can see, look where Wales were in 2021.
15:33 Wales were the six nations champions.
15:35 Look where they are now.
15:37 And obviously, like France and New Zealand, South Africa are all in similar positions.
15:43 Ireland are now the best team in the world.
15:45 So, I mean, it'd be interesting to see exactly how this draw would look if you took where the rankings were when it was made, compared them to what the world rankings are now.
15:56 Just how exactly, how completely different it would be.
16:00 But it is what it is.
16:03 You get nowhere arguing about it.
16:04 From a Scotland point of view, I think we know what we have to do.
16:07 We have to beat one of the two best teams in the world.
16:11 And it's just going to be hugely difficult.
16:15 If we lose that opening match to South Africa, then the pressure is just completely on Scotland for the rest of the group stage, even against Tonga and Romania.
16:25 I mean, Romania less so with all due respect, but we know that Tonga are a capable side.
16:30 And that's going to be a hugely pressured match.
16:33 And not just to win, but to get the bonus point win.
16:36 Because they're probably going to need that.
16:39 And then you come down to that final game against Ireland.
16:41 And I mean, it's the battle of the bottle, really, isn't it?
16:46 You've got Ireland who famously bottle World Cups and Scotland who famously bottle matches against Ireland.
16:52 So what's that going to do?
16:56 I don't think that's going to be a win.
16:58 I thought you were going to say Scotland who famously bottle everything now.
17:02 Well, that's too early.
17:06 I actually think, to be honest, there'd be more pressure, assuming that South Africa beat both Ireland and Scotland going into that last round, which obviously isn't a given by any means.
17:16 But if it comes a shootout between Scotland and Ireland, I think the pressure is more on Ireland as the number one team in the world.
17:22 As you say, that hooter with the quarterfinals, that Leinster team that has played together and is the spine of the Irish team and that has thrown away, you know, champion cup finals in recent years.
17:33 Up against a Scotland who, you know, Finn Russell, for all his faults, if he presses that button, they can score 21 points in 10 minutes.
17:40 And I can see that the pressure coming on Ireland, Scotland have nothing to lose, nothing to fear.
17:46 If Finn just goes bananas, it could be one of the games of the ages and Scotland could put Ireland out of the tournament.
17:52 Well, it's interesting you mentioned Finn Russell because I think it's important to speak about just how important he is to Scotland.
18:01 I personally think it's going to be one of New Zealand or South Africa in the final.
18:06 And that's I hope I mean, look, beyond Scotland, I'd hope it would be France, because I just love the way this France team plays.
18:17 I think they're an excellent team. But and it's weird to say this.
18:20 I feel like if you in terms of like when you take one player out of a team, how lesser that team is going to be with Ireland.
18:30 I think if you take Johnny Sexton out of the team, it's a lesser team, but it's still a team that's capable of beating anyone in the world.
18:38 Don't get me wrong. Scotland without Finn Russell. It's just I mean, where do they go?
18:45 I mean, they do have other strong options at 10, but just don't have anyone that can operate the same way he does.
18:52 Not having him is going to make that devastating Hugh Jones, Sionni Tuapolotu centre combination.
18:58 It's really going to weaken that without, you know, because he's the catalyst to those two being able to be so unpredictable and so destructive.
19:07 And France, I think as weird as it is to say, because France have depth, but Anton Dupont is just so good that no one else is on his level.
19:18 He's he's in God mode at the moment and everyone else is just is just falling behind him.
19:24 So it doesn't matter how good France's next best scrum half is, who I'm not 100 percent sure who it is because the Six Nations were quite a while ago now.
19:34 So I can't remember off the top of my head, but I know for a fact he's not on the same level that Anton Dupont is at the moment because no one's on that level.
19:42 You can tell how important Dupont is because if anyone comes off, instead of taking Dupont, they just move everybody else across.
19:49 They'll take anybody else and just move Anton around.
19:54 But I don't feel like you can say the same about New Zealand or South Africa.
19:58 I mean, I think with the Bocs, maybe if you take Khaleesi out of that side, they do lose something.
20:06 That just him being the sort of beating heart of that pack and being so...
20:12 At one point I would have said it was Andre Pollard, but in the game against the All Blacks, I think Marnie LeBoc came of age because he's kicking to the corner.
20:19 Yes, he's a bit flaky in front of the sticks, but he was putting every kick in that five meter channel.
20:24 And then those mutants that they've got in that second row were just landing the ball and crashing over it.
20:29 And yeah, I think South Africa, if they get anywhere near the physicality they showed against the All Blacks, they're going to be a hell of a team to beat.
20:37 Well, let's just finish up, guys, in the last part of the show here, because what I'm going to ask really quickly is for everyone's prediction for the final.
20:46 So I'll come to you first, Phil. What is going to be the 2020 Free Rugby World Cup final?
20:52 I suspect that... So my prediction is that France will lose the opening game this weekend.
20:58 I think the injury is going to cost them, but that will be the first match and the last match of the World Cup.
21:03 And they will have different winners at the first match and the last match.
21:07 Interesting. James?
21:09 My final will be, I think, South Africa. And I think they'll play Australia.
21:15 I think Australia will just edge it out from that other side of the draw.
21:21 It could be England, but I think Australia for me, I think once they hit the ground running, they could be OK.
21:26 You've confused me a bit, Phil. Can New Zealand and France meet in the final, the way the draw works?
21:33 I think they might be able to, but maybe I've got that wrong. I still think that for me, France will be the overall winners, put it that way.
21:40 OK. I'm with James. I think the Boxer get into the final this year.
21:45 That other half of the draw is really difficult to predict.
21:50 And you know what? I'm not going to put my house on it, but I think I might have a cheeky each way bet on Argentina in this tournament,
21:57 because I think they are a really... I mean, I haven't seen them play since...
22:03 Well, we saw bits of them in the Rugby Championship, but I think from what I've seen in this World Cup cycle, if you like,
22:11 which obviously is four years and that's a huge cycle, but all the same, what I've seen from them,
22:16 I've seen enough to suggest that they're good enough to beat anyone in that half of the draw.
22:22 And they're probably good enough to string a few results together.
22:25 And I think given what's going on with some of our teams, I think they've got a real chance.
22:29 So I'm going to stick my neck out and I'm going to go with the Box and Argentina in the final.
22:36 The thing is about that AB side of the draw as well, is that South Africa will have to play Ireland, Scotland, obviously Tonga and Romania,
22:43 but then France, New Zealand as well at some point.
22:46 And on the other side of the draw, the team that gets to the final is going to have it a lot easier in terms of physicality
22:52 and really having to go to the well. So you wonder, could there be a little surprise winner?
22:57 I would still back the Springboks to be honest, but you just never know.
23:01 Could the winner come from that side of the draw? And if it's not England, Australia or Wales,
23:07 we could have a real sort of shock/upset, but that is doing a lot of finger in the sky stuff.
23:15 Well, yeah, I still think whatever happens, there will be upsets in this world.
23:20 Not just because of the way the draw is, but just because of the fact that those tier two teams are coming up.
23:25 And with some of those South Sea Islanders getting all-blank players back into their teams,
23:31 look at the Fiji side and the players that they've got, same with Samoa. I think that they're either going to take lumps out of people,
23:38 so they're going to get injuries. And we've already talked about key personnel going missing and how that changes people's prospects.
23:43 But this is going to be the closest, most exciting World Cup, I think, for some time.
23:47 [Music]
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