Podcast: Insider Look at Raiders from West Virginia
In our latest episode of the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast, we give you the latest insider information from the Silver and Black. Don't miss this.
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00:00 - Hi everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter
00:04 from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation,
00:05 Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:08 So great to be with you today.
00:09 I'm here in West Virginia with the Raiders.
00:12 They are spending some time out here.
00:14 We'll get into more details into that,
00:16 into why coming up later.
00:18 But we're gonna dig right in.
00:19 I got a voluminous amount of information for you today.
00:22 Yesterday, our team put up 12 pieces of content
00:26 on our website.
00:28 We put up multiple pieces of content
00:30 that were Twitter only,
00:32 highlight some practices, that kind of stuff.
00:35 Tons of stuff on YouTube.
00:36 I don't even know,
00:37 but probably close to 20 pieces of content,
00:40 video, podcasts, pictures, articles,
00:43 all of it, 100% free.
00:46 And remember, don't pay people
00:49 for what we give you for free.
00:50 Just be wise with your money,
00:52 but we're giving you the outstanding coverage.
00:54 I hope that you're enjoying it.
00:55 And it's not me.
00:56 we have a great team and I appreciate all my team
01:00 and everyone who's involved and appreciate you
01:01 'cause we're growing exponentially
01:04 and the credit all goes to you guys.
01:06 So take a second, make sure you subscribe
01:09 depending on how you're watching, where you're watching.
01:12 Can be on the top, can be on the bottom, wherever,
01:13 but please make sure you're subscribed.
01:15 Make sure you're following us on Twitter
01:17 'cause we have a lot of stuff on Twitter
01:18 that we don't even put on the site,
01:21 and that's @hondcarpenter, H-O-N-D-C-A-R-P-E-N-T-E-R.
01:26 Make sure you're subscribed.
01:28 Make sure when you're at our website,
01:29 click on the newsletter, go to Raiders Today,
01:31 sign up for our free newsletter.
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01:37 We don't spam you, we don't sell your stuff,
01:39 but it's just a great way for you
01:42 to get information on your Raiders.
01:44 Got a lot to talk about today, so let's get right at it.
01:46 I'm a little frustrated not with you.
01:49 It's late, I'm exhausted,
01:51 and I just taped an entire podcast.
01:54 And deleted it before it's saved.
01:58 Not my brightest moments,
02:01 but hopefully I can catch a little bit of sleep.
02:02 So let's get right to it.
02:05 Coming in, and by the way, let me just quickly say,
02:08 I love being a reporter in the digital age
02:13 because there's proof of performance.
02:15 So going into camp, I had projected Sam Webb,
02:21 Drake Thomas, and McClendon Curtis, all UDFAs,
02:24 Webb was a UDFA, undrafted free agent last year,
02:28 to make this roster.
02:30 That was my prediction.
02:31 And I told you many times, you can go back and read
02:35 when I wrote it and watch in podcasts when I didn't,
02:38 but when I said it,
02:40 they were gonna have some tough decisions
02:41 because Dave Ziegler had built a very good roster
02:43 for a very good players,
02:45 and they were looking at several of their practice squad guys
02:49 and thinking, man, we don't know
02:50 if we'll be able to keep them on our practice squad
02:52 'cause somebody else is gonna assign them to their 53 man.
02:56 Well, they lost two more guys yesterday,
02:57 and Webb and McClendon Curtis.
02:59 Now, I've heard people say,
03:01 well, why would we keep Hoyer or Brandon Bolden?
03:03 Okay, if you go back and watch the video prior,
03:07 after the Dallas Cowboy game,
03:09 I talked to Josh McDaniels, Champ Kelly, and Dave Ziegler,
03:14 and asked them about how much of building a roster's,
03:16 boy, we think in the future, this guy could be that.
03:20 And how much is about today?
03:21 And you have to consider all of that.
03:23 And so none of those guys played running back,
03:26 none of those guys played linebacker like Drake Thomas
03:31 or defensive back like Sam Webb.
03:35 Now, if Zemir had shown more,
03:39 it may have opened another roster spot.
03:44 You know, who do you add to your roster?
03:46 But it didn't, and they lost these guys.
03:49 Now, I understand there are some people
03:52 that always have a narrative.
03:53 One of the things that I hate about modern media
03:56 is everyone wants to tell everyone what to think.
04:00 This is why we put up so much raw video
04:02 and just let you decide your own opinion.
04:05 I don't need somebody on the left telling me
04:08 how to feel about politics, or on the right telling me,
04:11 I think I'm pretty smart, I wanna know what's going on,
04:14 just give me the facts and I'll make my own decisions.
04:16 Same way in sports media,
04:17 I'm not gonna tell you what to think.
04:19 But what I am gonna say is I am nervous.
04:22 I don't know that nervous is the right word.
04:25 I am concerned about anyone,
04:28 whether it's sports, weather, news, politics,
04:32 that comes with their reporting with me with an agenda.
04:37 Now, there are some people that just hated Derek Carr.
04:41 So whatever Derek did, they hated.
04:43 Then there were people that worshiped Derek Carr.
04:44 Whatever Derek Carr did, they just loved it.
04:47 There are people who hate Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels,
04:50 and there are people that love them.
04:52 So everything goes through that prism.
04:54 That's not where I live.
04:55 I live in realville.
04:57 And so I'm able to be friends with people.
05:01 I'm even able to be friends with people I don't like,
05:04 and report on them and be fair
05:06 because I just keep it right where it's at, keep it real.
05:09 So on both ends of the spectrum,
05:11 oh, Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels,
05:13 they're terrible failures.
05:14 Look at these players that they didn't keep.
05:16 Okay, we only get to keep 53.
05:18 And none of them are playing backup quarterback.
05:22 I mean, when you can have a third quarterback on game day,
05:26 and that quarterback and Hoyer helps develop Aiden O'Connell.
05:29 Now, you may disagree with that.
05:31 That's fine.
05:32 That's perfectly fine.
05:33 But they're also not doing things at running back
05:36 that Brandon Bolden does that others can't.
05:39 So you can rip Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels all you want.
05:42 That's clearly your option and your choice.
05:45 Or you can take the approach of, look it,
05:48 there's a lot of, they've accumulated so much talent
05:50 that teams are coming, and not just practice squad.
05:53 There were other guys they cut
05:54 that are playing on other teams.
05:55 Or you can look at it and say, wow,
05:58 their talent evaluation has gone significantly up,
06:01 and they're acquiring good talent.
06:03 That's how I see it.
06:04 You can look at it any way you want,
06:06 but I think it's disappointing for the Raiders
06:08 to lose those guys.
06:10 But I think it's exciting if you're a Raider fan
06:14 that you see, wow, but we're doing the right evaluations.
06:16 Guys are coming for our people.
06:18 A lot of people are wondering
06:20 why did they come to West Virginia?
06:22 Couple of things.
06:23 First of all, there's proven studies in the NFL
06:26 about going from east to west or west to east
06:28 and what the three hours does.
06:30 Now, this may surprise you,
06:33 but the three hours going east to west
06:35 doesn't have as much of an impact on winning and losing
06:38 as going from west to east.
06:41 I thought that was fascinating.
06:43 Another thing is, is it's wet and rainy in the northeast,
06:48 and I realize West Virginia isn't,
06:49 but it's the same timeframe and it's relatively the same.
06:52 It is not relatively.
06:53 It's very close to the same weather this time of year.
06:58 And so they get to get away
07:00 and they stay on the eastern time zone.
07:04 They get to get away and work together
07:08 and to spend time together,
07:11 continue to build relationships,
07:13 which is what good, good teams do.
07:15 Think about it.
07:16 If you work remotely from home,
07:17 you don't have a lot of colleagues.
07:18 This doesn't apply to you,
07:19 but if you work with people,
07:21 the more you know them,
07:23 the better you know them as people,
07:25 makes you vested in their success.
07:29 But I'll give you another example.
07:31 When you live in Vegas,
07:34 so yesterday it was 77 here
07:37 and I'm there and I got a t-shirt on and everything else,
07:40 and I was sweating profusely.
07:42 And I'm fat, so that's part of it,
07:43 but I'm sweating profusely.
07:46 But when I'm in Vegas and it was 77 and it's 117,
07:50 and I'm in a three piece black suit,
07:53 I'll be super hot.
07:55 I'm not pretending it's not hot in Vegas,
07:58 but there's zero humidity and I don't sweat.
08:00 That was one of the weirdest things I had to adjust
08:02 when I moved out to Vegas is you just don't sweat.
08:05 You're very hot, but you don't sweat.
08:09 And it's a different type of weather.
08:10 They're out here, they're getting used to it.
08:12 Their bodies are adjusting to it.
08:14 And I'm gonna tell you this,
08:15 there is a narrative among Raider fans
08:19 that I do not understand where everyone says
08:21 that Mark Davis is broke, which is totally not true.
08:24 It's completely false.
08:25 In fact, it's a lie.
08:27 Were they cash strapped in Oakland?
08:29 Yes, but they're not in Oakland anymore.
08:31 They're rolling in it.
08:33 They're rolling in it.
08:34 And I think that should, Mark Davis deserves some credit.
08:39 He'll spend any amount of money
08:41 if it gives his team an edge towards a win.
08:45 And this is a game Sunday that the Raiders
08:47 are gonna have to play really, really well to win.
08:49 I mean, the odds are better
08:51 that they're gonna lose on Sunday than win.
08:54 And still, doesn't care.
08:56 If it gives us an advantage, let's roll it, let's do it.
08:58 I think that says a lot
08:59 because when you bring your whole team,
09:01 I mean, they had to bring two planes, two,
09:04 'cause you're out here for a week.
09:06 And if you just go for a game,
09:07 you don't have to bring two planes.
09:08 But they've got PR people, they've got security people,
09:12 they've got their cooking staff, their janitorial staff,
09:14 they've got trainers, coaches, I mean, everybody.
09:18 It is a huge deal to move a massive operation,
09:22 1,700 miles and set up for a week.
09:27 Anyways, I think Mark Davis deserves some credit
09:31 and I wanted to bring that out.
09:33 Now, in today's podcast,
09:35 we're gonna talk about a ton of information.
09:37 We're gonna talk about the operators,
09:38 we're gonna talk about some of the bills.
09:40 But I also want you to know that when I look at the NFL game,
09:43 I reach out to people around the NFL too.
09:45 Hey, give me an idea about your scouting report.
09:47 What are some things that you're seeing?
09:49 One of the things about Josh Allen,
09:51 and he is clearly a top four quarterback in the NFL.
09:54 Some people believe top three, clearly.
09:58 But Brian Daybold left last year
10:02 to go be the coach of the Giants.
10:04 And he's a good coach regardless of what happened
10:05 in week one, he's a good coach.
10:07 And you saw him getting back to his old ways
10:12 of being a gunslinger, the multiple interceptions.
10:16 Brett Favre played that way,
10:18 but Brett Favre was, even though he played that way,
10:22 he won a lot of games.
10:24 Josh Allen, a lot of people believe is Favre 2.0,
10:27 just younger version of Favre.
10:29 And if that's the case, he's farther along
10:34 or close to being farther along than where Favre was
10:36 at this point in his career, but he's there.
10:40 And he's coming, but he is a guy that,
10:46 I'm trying to, I wanna say this nicely.
10:52 Let me look at my notes.
10:53 He'll take risks.
11:02 Let's just, can we leave it right there?
11:03 He'll take risks.
11:05 And so part of the deal,
11:06 and I'm gonna get into more of this later
11:07 with the Raiders is,
11:08 is you gotta weather the storm at Buffalo.
11:11 I think the best place to crowd wise in the NFL
11:15 is the Kansas City Chiefs.
11:16 And I know that's gonna get me a ton of hate mail.
11:18 It's just reality folks, sorry.
11:20 But then you've got Pittsburgh, Green Bay, Buffalo
11:25 and that next kind of group of teams.
11:29 And the Bills mafia is gonna be out.
11:31 DeMarco, DeMarco, I'm sorry.
11:34 Hamlin is gonna be, I don't know where DeMarco came from.
11:37 Sorry.
11:38 But you're gonna see Hamlin is gonna be there.
11:43 I don't know if he's gonna play,
11:44 but he's gonna be in uniform.
11:45 The place is gonna be lit, DeMar Hamlin.
11:50 The place is gonna be lit
11:51 and the Raiders just gotta weather the storm.
11:54 And when they do,
11:55 all the pressure for this game is on the Bills.
11:57 All of it.
12:00 And the whole freaking thing, nobody,
12:02 I mean, Vegas has this as almost a double digit loss
12:04 for the Raiders.
12:05 There's no shame in going to Buffalo
12:07 and losing to Buffalo.
12:08 In fact, I predicted it at the beginning of the year.
12:11 The sun will come out tomorrow.
12:14 Anyways, there's no shame in it.
12:16 And this is a better Raider team
12:20 and they're playing with house money.
12:21 I'm just telling you.
12:22 There's a lot of smell in the wind,
12:27 a potential upset coming.
12:29 And it would be an upset, make no mistake.
12:33 It would, last year, last week winning in Denver was a steal
12:36 'cause I've told you the story.
12:38 Don Shula, and he went on the road in the NFL's a steal.
12:41 But it wasn't a surprise.
12:43 It would be if they beat the Buffalo Bills at Buffalo,
12:46 but it doesn't mean it's a long shot.
12:49 We'll get in more in that later.
12:51 Let's talk about, you guys know my rule with players.
12:55 If I don't have a recording device,
12:57 it's an off the record conversation,
12:59 unless I say to them right up front,
13:00 hey, I'd like to talk to you a little bit anonymously.
13:03 I'll use your material, but I won't use your name.
13:06 So I don't talk about conversations that are just private
13:09 about the internal part of it.
13:14 And I may say I talked to that guy, whatever,
13:16 but had a great visit with Hunter Renfro yesterday.
13:19 And that video is up right now.
13:21 You can go watch it on our YouTube site,
13:23 Las Vegas Raiders Insider with Hondo Carpenter.
13:27 Later today, I'm going to have video up
13:28 with Jimmy and Devante.
13:30 Man, you're going to love that.
13:32 And there were a lot of people that were disappointed
13:36 Hunter didn't get catches over the weekend.
13:39 Now there's a couple of reasons.
13:40 First of all, I've already talked earlier in the week,
13:42 when he was in the field,
13:44 Jimmy makes really quick reads, number one.
13:47 And so if he comes to the line and he's the target,
13:50 but he sees double coverage or something in there
13:53 that sees better coverage somewhere else,
13:55 he's going to go there.
13:56 Plus the Raiders ran a lot of 21, which is two tight ends
13:59 and one running back.
14:02 Some people would call it 12, one running back,
14:04 two tight ends, just depends on who you're talking to.
14:06 'Cause it's the same.
14:07 If you're a person that sees two tight ends
14:10 and one running back as a 12,
14:12 and you're talking about 21 personnel,
14:16 that's totally different to you.
14:18 But if you're a guy that sees two tight ends
14:22 and a running back as 21, then 12 personnel is different.
14:24 It's just like I told you, a lot of people call
14:27 the straight sprint to the end zone,
14:30 you know, what a lot of people would call a Hail Mary
14:32 or go deep, a nine route.
14:33 Some call it a seven, 'cause seven stands for touchdown,
14:36 whatever it may be.
14:37 You know, the Raiders spent a lot of time in 12 personnel,
14:41 two tight ends, one running back.
14:44 And that's not when you're number three wide receiver,
14:47 if you're in 12, he's not on the field.
14:49 But yesterday, great interview with him.
14:51 You'd really enjoy it.
14:52 Go watch it.
14:54 Win this podcast over.
14:55 But he talked about, "Hey, I just wanna win.
15:00 "I just wanna win."
15:01 And you guys all know my fondness and affinity for Hunter,
15:04 and I have a lot of it.
15:05 He's a winner, and that's what he did.
15:07 And he didn't care.
15:09 You know, he knew he was,
15:12 he knows when he breaks the huddle, I'm a target.
15:14 He can tell, all right, I'm in double coverage,
15:16 but Jacoby's not, it's not gonna come to me.
15:19 And those are all the things, you know,
15:20 where some people just look at stats.
15:24 These guys know what's supposed to happen when,
15:26 where it's called what, and that's how that all worked out.
15:29 But his spirits were great.
15:30 Again, I wanna talk about the Raiders on Sunday.
15:32 They gotta get it to the fourth quarter.
15:35 I don't think the Raiders are good enough
15:36 to come back down 14 points in the fourth quarter
15:39 against the Bills.
15:40 But you're seven points, eight points, nine points down?
15:46 Yeah.
15:48 Seven or less, for sure.
15:50 And then once that happens,
15:52 the Bills are the ones feeling all the pressure.
15:55 Again, all of it.
15:57 They know the chance of us getting to the Super Bowl
16:01 starting 0-2 are, no.
16:05 They've gotta win.
16:07 So the Raiders, that's gonna help them.
16:10 The more pressure, now, not just internal pressure of,
16:14 man, we can't lose, but they gotta get pressure
16:17 'cause Josh Allen makes mistakes when he's under pressure
16:21 and they've gotta get to him.
16:23 Ideally, you're in nickel coverage,
16:26 you got your three corners, Peters, Hobbs, Bennett,
16:31 you got your two safeties and you're coming with six guys
16:34 or you're able to bring some blitzes.
16:36 You don't wanna blitz a lot,
16:37 but you're able to bring 'em to force Allen
16:39 to make some mistakes.
16:40 I'm just telling you.
16:41 Pressure, both internal,
16:43 which means keeping it close into the fourth quarter,
16:45 and getting Josh, pressure on Josh is a big, big deal.
16:50 Jimmy G, again, the video's coming up later today.
16:55 I've had several conversations with him as of late,
16:59 both after the game and yesterday that were,
17:04 you know, just off the record,
17:05 so I'm not gonna tell you what he talked about,
17:06 but he had such a massive impact on this team.
17:09 When he threw that interception in the red zone,
17:12 he was so angry and he was pressing.
17:16 He was trying to do something good
17:18 and he knows it cost us three.
17:21 But when he was coming out the field, he was mad,
17:25 but I mean, the players are cheering
17:27 and he's got this grin on his face.
17:28 It's all right, boys, we're gonna be fine.
17:30 He just has a swagger and a confidence
17:34 that this team has adapted from him.
17:36 Now, Max had that, but he wasn't an offensive player.
17:39 Devontae had it, but he wasn't a quarterback.
17:44 And I don't care if it's Pee-wee, JV, freshman,
17:48 high school, college, pro, people look to their quarterback.
17:53 They wanna see that he's got that moxie, that it.
17:57 And I had a good time talking with him about it yesterday.
18:00 You'll enjoy that on the video,
18:01 but he is just a calming presence in this locker room
18:05 and they trust him and that's a big deal.
18:09 I'm gonna get into a lot more on that later,
18:10 but they trust him.
18:13 Thayer Mumford, now you may remember,
18:15 I tell you this all the time.
18:17 There are things that when we're at practice,
18:19 we can't comment about.
18:21 We're members of the Pro Football Writers Association
18:24 and in their negotiations with the NFL for access,
18:28 we can't talk about schematics.
18:31 We can't talk about things that would hurt the Raiders
18:36 and give an advantage to an opponent.
18:41 And I have no problem with that.
18:42 If you're covering the Lions, it's the same rules.
18:44 If you're covering the Dolphins, you just, whatever.
18:47 So for example, if I wanted to go to Bill's practice today,
18:50 I'd get in, but the Bills have a right that whatever I see,
18:55 I'm not reporting or coming back and telling the Raiders.
18:58 No problem with that.
18:59 But Thayer Mumford at the jumbo was some things
19:04 we saw getting worked on.
19:05 And if you saw him playing jumbo tight end,
19:10 he did such a good job.
19:13 He's so physical.
19:15 And once he gets them big Ohio State Buckeye mitts on you,
19:20 he's able to get that moving.
19:22 I'll tell you, I thought he was good
19:25 when he got reps at tackle, good.
19:27 Not as good as Illuminaur, but his reps at tight end,
19:32 at jumbo tight end were exceptionally well.
19:35 He did really, really well.
19:36 Anyways, I interviewed him.
19:38 Got that material up for you.
19:40 And I encourage you to go watch it, that video.
19:44 But I thought he did super well.
19:47 And I had a good chance talking to Lachrom.
19:48 And when you're taking on Buffalo,
19:52 I'm gonna get into more details in a minute
19:53 on how you do it.
19:54 They're gonna need him at that jumbo tight end.
19:57 Michael Mayer did not get a lot of catches on last Sunday.
20:02 Part of that was him, but most of it was scheme.
20:06 The tight ends for the Raiders, not all.
20:08 You saw Hoop made a great catch,
20:11 but he was blocking a lot.
20:14 He was extremely physical.
20:15 In fact, again, later today,
20:17 I'll have the video of Jimmy Garoppolo
20:18 talking to him yesterday.
20:20 But Jimmy even talked about his physicality,
20:22 just how physical he is.
20:24 And Michael Mayer had a great visit with Lachrom
20:28 and just how he is handling the physicality of the game,
20:33 the adjustments to the game.
20:35 That guy's got superstar written all over him.
20:38 He's really, really good.
20:40 That's why they had him targeted as a first round talent
20:43 and would have gladly taken him
20:44 at the bottom of the first round.
20:46 But super good job on him, his physicality, and he's coming.
20:51 Remember, I have no expectations of rookies, none.
20:54 I just don't.
20:57 There's too much of an adjustment.
20:58 There's too much going on.
20:59 I'm gonna talk to you more about that in a minute.
21:03 I wanna talk about another player first,
21:05 and then we'll get to that.
21:06 Well, you know, let's just do it, Tyree Wilson.
21:08 So you can go back, and again,
21:10 this is why I love the digital age.
21:11 You can go back and watch the video
21:13 that I shot the night of the first round
21:16 when Tyree got picked.
21:18 They preferred Will Anderson
21:21 because Will Anderson was more polished and more developed,
21:24 but Tyree Wilson had a bigger upside.
21:27 Now, the coaching at Texas Tech isn't even close to as good
21:32 as the coaching with the Raiders.
21:33 And secondly, there are some players
21:35 where the coaching in college is as good
21:36 at defensive end as the Raiders,
21:39 but you're going against inferior teams.
21:41 That's part of, you know,
21:42 there's so many college football teams.
21:44 And so a lot of guys are not as technique sound
21:50 coming out of college at any college.
21:53 You know, Will Anderson's a unicorn now.
21:55 He's special.
21:56 And so they love Tyree.
21:59 They thought he was a dude,
22:01 but they knew there was some upside.
22:02 The guy misses 80% of training camp.
22:05 He's still addressing to the speed.
22:07 Did he look great Sunday?
22:09 Well, no, if your expectation was
22:12 what he's supposed to look like in five years.
22:14 You know, Cleland Farrell got picked way too high
22:18 by the Raiders.
22:19 It was a terrible draft pick,
22:20 but when he did do stuff good,
22:24 yeah, but not for what the money he makes.
22:25 Okay, that's not his fault.
22:27 And he was able to go sign quickly with San Francisco
22:31 and has played well
22:32 'cause they have him in the right spot.
22:37 And, but sometimes fans,
22:39 because of where players are picked,
22:40 the expectation is the money paid.
22:42 And that's where, in my opinion,
22:44 that's just a player can't control where he's picked,
22:46 but he can control what he can control.
22:49 And Cle Farrell wasn't what the Raiders wanted him to be.
22:53 I mean, it was just horrible,
22:56 but Tyree Wilson, there's no reason for panicking him.
23:00 I know a lot of people were, there isn't.
23:02 So please just take a deep breath, relax.
23:04 He's gonna be fine.
23:06 Now let's talk about Chandler Jones.
23:08 I'm not gonna say anything else about Chandler after this
23:11 until something changes.
23:13 He's not here.
23:14 There is zero issues with the players
23:18 towards management and how they're handling Chandler.
23:20 There's no animosity between the players in Chandler
23:24 or management in Chandler.
23:25 I just would ask you to pray for Chandler.
23:29 Great guy.
23:30 I like him a lot.
23:31 But pray for him, keep him in your prayers,
23:35 and we'll hope that everything eventually works out,
23:37 but I do not see his return as imminent whatsoever.
23:40 He's not here in West Virginia.
23:41 I don't see it.
23:43 Doesn't mean it isn't coming,
23:44 just it's nothing that I would call imminent.
23:46 Then I wanna address Jacoby Myers.
23:50 I told you earlier, after the game, excuse me,
23:53 on Sunday night in my post-game pod,
23:57 and I said on Monday that the expectation
23:59 was that he may be back.
24:01 I don't believe that's the expectation anymore.
24:03 I think he could,
24:04 but I'm not as certain of it as I was Sunday or Monday.
24:09 I'm gonna put that at about 30%.
24:11 Again, I don't see it,
24:13 but I certainly don't think it's ruled out
24:16 according to the people that I'm talking to.
24:18 I wanna talk about the keys to the game against Buffalo,
24:24 'cause there's some really big keys.
24:25 Number one, the offensive line in the play calling
24:30 have to attack the edge.
24:32 Now, the edge is from the outside shoulder.
24:35 If you're the left tight end,
24:36 if you're the tight end on the left,
24:37 not the left tight end,
24:38 but the tight end on the left from your shoulder out,
24:40 if you're on the right, right out.
24:41 If there's no tight end from the tackles out,
24:44 that's the edge.
24:46 They gotta attack the edge,
24:48 and they gotta get into the flats,
24:50 which is where the outside linebackers are,
24:52 make the middle linebacker commit,
24:53 and then attack that middle linebacker.
24:55 So to me, the first 10 yards of the Bills' defense,
25:00 probably seven, but I'll say 10, is so vital.
25:05 The edge and flat area, across the middle area,
25:11 there's a couple of things they're working on
25:12 I'm not gonna talk about 'til after the game,
25:14 just like Thayer and the jumbo,
25:16 but I think they're gonna,
25:19 you know, the game plan's gonna have a lot of attacking.
25:22 The Raiders can't come out and be passive,
25:24 they gotta come out and attack.
25:25 You're playing with house money.
25:27 A loss here's not the end of the world,
25:29 in fact, I predicted a loss.
25:31 But come out and attack, put yourself,
25:35 you're not gonna come out,
25:36 you're not gonna go into the orchard park
25:38 and win playing passive.
25:40 You gotta come in punching.
25:44 I was on Buffalo Radio,
25:46 I've been on Buffalo Radio and other things a lot this week,
25:49 and one thing I'm telling them is,
25:51 Raiders are coming in, playing with house money,
25:53 and they want a street fight.
25:55 They just want a street fight, let's go.
25:57 We're gonna punch you, you punch us,
25:59 let's see who has the stronger chin.
26:00 And if you're a Raider fan, don't you love that?
26:03 That is just back to blue collar, lunch pail, football.
26:08 I'll tell you a quick story.
26:12 First time I met Al Davis,
26:13 many of you know I'm friends with Matt Mellon,
26:16 and I'm with Matt, we're in Oakland,
26:19 and Matt stops and introduced me to Al,
26:22 and I'm a big guy, tall and big,
26:26 and Al looks at me and goes,
26:28 "Raiders."
26:32 That's what he said, not, "Hi, how you doing?"
26:36 And I really enjoyed Al,
26:38 I thought he was just wonderful.
26:40 "Raiders."
26:41 But that's what you expect from the Raiders.
26:47 You expect that we're gonna punch you in the face.
26:51 You may beat me, but you're gonna be in pain for it.
26:56 Next week, who's ever on your schedule is gonna thank us,
26:59 'cause you're still gonna be hurt.
27:01 And I just think this, and I've said it on,
27:05 and if you go back and look at my Twitter,
27:07 I've tweeted at one of the radio interviews I did,
27:09 you can go back and listen.
27:10 But I said, "They're coming in for a street fight
27:14 "playing with house money."
27:16 And I just think this game to me,
27:19 and I'm gonna get into more of it in a minute,
27:20 but this game to me, it's gonna be a fun game.
27:23 Anytime you get to watch a game of Buffalo is really cool.
27:25 It's a great stadium, great people.
27:27 The outside environment, it's louder than Lambeau,
27:32 but very similar in the outdoor experience at Lambeau.
27:36 It's just a really great place to be.
27:37 Now, the other thing is the Raiders are not good enough
27:43 to beat Buffalo and to beat themselves.
27:48 So turnovers.
27:50 Now, many of you know, I preach ad nauseum
27:53 about the rule of five.
27:55 This is something I learned from NFL people.
27:57 And so what it is, is let's say the Raiders get
28:01 two interceptions to Josh Allen and a fumble recovery.
28:04 So they're plus three in turnovers.
28:06 And let's say they have no turnovers.
28:09 So they're plus three, but let's say they give up five sacks
28:12 but they get two sacks.
28:14 Now they're minus three in sacks.
28:18 So they take minus three in sacks, plus three in turnovers,
28:21 and you're at a zero.
28:22 The rule of five is between sacks and interceptions.
28:27 If you can be at plus five in that rating,
28:31 the rule of five, it's a huge deal.
28:33 Huge, huge, huge, huge deal.
28:35 And the Raiders, so Jimmy's gonna be fine.
28:39 He pressed it, he knew it.
28:40 He's dealt with it this week in practice.
28:42 I'm dealing with it yesterday, but he's gonna be fine.
28:46 But the Raiders, there's turnovers now.
28:48 There's blood in the water.
28:49 Josh Allen's a gunslinger.
28:51 And Raiders are playing with house money.
28:54 Teams that start O and two don't have a regular trip
28:58 to the Super Bowl.
28:59 And this is a team with Super Bowl talent and contention.
29:02 So you wanna keep this game close.
29:05 Seven points going into the fourth quarter,
29:09 then all the pressure is on the Bills, all of it.
29:13 You're setting that edge and you're playing aggressive
29:17 and you don't have to always blitz,
29:21 but you're getting pressure.
29:22 Remember, a quarterback can't complete a pass
29:23 when he's laying on his ass and bam, do, go.
29:27 I love if some of you guys are just too young,
29:31 most of you, 90% of you, I'm old,
29:33 to watch the old Batman.
29:35 You wanna get ready for this football game?
29:39 Go to one of your Netflixes or one of your streaming places
29:42 or go on YouTube and find some of those
29:46 old Adam West Batman movies.
29:49 Bam, oh, bang, do.
29:51 That's what you wanna see.
29:52 We're looking for a street fight.
29:54 Rocky, Apollo 1, remember that?
29:57 It was a great movie, great movie.
30:01 If you haven't seen Rocky 1 in a while, just do it.
30:03 Isn't that just one of those movies
30:04 when it just shows up on your screen?
30:06 Sorry, the remote is broken.
30:08 Rocky 1 is on.
30:12 And I mean, where Rocky just stands toe to toe
30:15 and says, all right, let's go.
30:16 Now listen, the Bills got a better roster.
30:18 Raiders are younger, they're coming, they're coming.
30:23 They're getting there.
30:26 But they're not the old Raiders
30:29 where they're gonna roll over and play dead.
30:31 They expect to win.
30:33 They're gonna fight.
30:34 They're gonna punch you in the face.
30:37 And I talked to Jimmy Garoppolo about it yesterday.
30:39 Oh my goodness, watching the game live against Denver,
30:43 that was such a physical war.
30:46 And my dad was in the military, so I apologize.
30:50 Using that term war when it comes to sports
30:52 to me is overrated.
30:54 It was a physical beating
30:56 what the Raiders offense aligned it.
30:59 And even Jimmy says, oh yeah, I could hear it.
31:01 Again, when you see the video, him and I talk about it.
31:04 I just love that.
31:05 You know, right in the kisser.
31:10 I love that physicality.
31:12 Man, I love it.
31:14 Because that's what this game is meant to be played.
31:17 There's a lot of whimpification of football.
31:19 Now I understand we want safety, player safety, I get it.
31:22 But at the end of the day, it's not gonna be soccer.
31:25 I mean, give me a break.
31:29 In soccer, two guys run next to each other
31:31 and they both fall down
31:32 and some guy pulls out a credit card.
31:33 I wish it was my wife's credit card from Kohl's.
31:35 You're too mean.
31:38 Give me a break, it's football.
31:39 It's football.
31:41 Go on now.
31:44 I love that.
31:46 There's an old adage,
31:50 you hit some guy so hard his grandchildren
31:52 be born with a headache.
31:53 I love that.
31:54 I just wanna see it this week.
31:55 I wanna see it again.
31:56 And credit Colton and several other people.
32:01 Hang on, I need to check this real quick.
32:02 This is something I may be needing for this podcast.
32:05 No.
32:08 But I want that physicality.
32:13 So the Raiders are gonna come out
32:14 and they're gonna be physical.
32:16 And so, okay.
32:18 Are the Bills ready for a fight?
32:21 You don't think Greg Van Roten,
32:22 who got let go 'cause they couldn't afford him.
32:26 Now that guy already plays with a little bit of nasty.
32:31 Hello boys.
32:32 Let's party.
32:35 I'm sorry, I love the game of football.
32:37 I love watching along the lines and all the physicality.
32:41 And so going into this,
32:42 you wanna see that from the Raiders.
32:44 You wanna see, 'cause all the pressures on the Bills,
32:46 they're playing with house money.
32:48 Oh yeah, you should beat us.
32:50 You're good.
32:51 And they are.
32:52 I ain't lying.
32:53 You're good.
32:54 But I love that line with Rocky
32:57 when he's getting ready to go play,
32:59 to go fight Ivan Drago in Russian.
33:02 When he says to Adrian,
33:03 "He's better.
33:05 But to beat me, he gonna have to kill me."
33:09 And is he, and this is not a quote, it's perfect.
33:13 But is he willing to die to win?
33:16 'Cause I am.
33:17 Now this isn't a death,
33:18 but those Raiders don't care if they come in bruised,
33:22 bloodied, beat up.
33:24 They love it.
33:28 They love it.
33:29 I'm telling you folks,
33:30 the Raiders in the time that I have been here
33:35 have been very finesse.
33:37 And now they're very physical.
33:39 Go back, I'll just give you one example.
33:42 Jimmy was talking about it yesterday.
33:45 I mean, DeFonte Adams is a superstar in this league
33:50 and he's blocking.
33:51 These Raiders, day one of training camp,
33:56 Josh McDaniel, day one of pads,
33:58 bam, they're taking guys to the ground.
34:00 This is a physical Raider team.
34:02 Now again, oh, Hondo's jacked up.
34:05 I'm always jacked up.
34:05 I'm jacked up to watch little kids peewee football
34:08 when I coach my son.
34:09 I love it.
34:10 But this is a physical Raider team.
34:15 They want a physical game.
34:16 That's why you don't get mad
34:17 at physical aggression penalties.
34:20 You get mad at stupid ones.
34:21 But they gotta just come in, be aggressive,
34:25 take it right to the bills.
34:26 We're playing with house money.
34:27 Let's go, boys.
34:28 And I'm just, I think it's gonna be really, really good.
34:32 Now, many, so turnovers, they just cannot give,
34:36 they gotta remember the rule of five.
34:37 If Raiders win the rule of five, they will upset the bills.
34:41 Now, moving on.
34:42 Many of you know this, and it isn't a Hondo original,
34:44 so I don't wanna take credit for it,
34:46 but I have 10 criteria in which I do my prognostication.
34:53 I got this from several people in the world of football.
34:57 And so, for example, one of my criteria
35:01 is the home team always gets a point.
35:04 Now, when you go to Allegiant Stadium Southwest,
35:08 SoFi, I still give the home team one point,
35:15 even though it's a Raider advantage in crowd,
35:17 just 'cause of the travel
35:18 and all the logistics and everything.
35:22 But going into this game, prior to the season,
35:25 I had it as a 7.5 to 2.5 bills, and that's not points,
35:30 it's just in my algorithm, without a computer, Hondo rhythm.
35:37 Anyways, and so that number is significantly reduced.
35:43 I'll talk to you more about it in my prediction.
35:48 But I think this game is much closer,
35:52 I'm not talking about score,
35:53 I'm just talking about as prediction.
35:55 Coming into this, if they were to play 100 times,
35:58 I think the bills would have won 75.
36:00 I don't think that's the case anymore.
36:02 I'll get into more of that later in the week.
36:05 I think the importance here, though,
36:07 is just being close in the fourth quarter.
36:09 Close in the fourth quarter.
36:12 And again, seven points, as many as nine,
36:17 can't be double digits.
36:18 I don't think the Raiders can come back from double...
36:21 Okay, could they?
36:22 Yes.
36:23 Would I anticipate it?
36:24 No.
36:26 But they just gotta keep it close in the fourth quarter.
36:30 You're gonna have the crowd lit for DeMar.
36:31 Now listen, the crowd in Buffalo is always lit.
36:35 It's always lit.
36:36 But you get in there, DeMar Hamlin's there,
36:42 their first home game, they've already lost one.
36:46 The fans in Buffalo have a good time before the game.
36:51 What's that mean?
36:52 Just go, have a good time.
36:55 And they're not around, they're having fun.
36:57 And it's just a great crowd.
36:59 So you gotta just ignore it, keep it close,
37:04 and then all the panic on the bills in the fourth quarter.
37:07 Another one I wanted to talk about
37:09 was because the Raiders no panic.
37:12 You get in the fourth quarter
37:14 and the Raiders are in a battle,
37:16 and all of a sudden they realize this one isn't over,
37:19 Josh Allen's gonna press.
37:21 He will, 'cause he's a winner.
37:25 He's a fighter and he's a scrapper
37:27 and he's a blue collar player.
37:29 And if he wasn't, it's like,
37:32 many of you are too young to remember this,
37:33 but Bill Lambere, who played for the Detroit Pistons,
37:36 everybody hated him except Piston fan.
37:40 And if he wasn't on the Pistons,
37:42 they would have hated him too.
37:44 You know, there's those guys, like Draymond Green,
37:46 my buddy Draymond, I love Day Day, just love him.
37:49 What a precious person, great guy.
37:52 He's so competitive.
37:54 He's just that way, it's just the way he's built.
37:57 I've known him since he was a kid.
37:58 The way he was in SAG-NASTY,
38:00 he just, just the way Day Day is, love him for it.
38:04 Everybody hates Day Day unless Day Day's on your team.
38:08 And then all of a sudden you got Draymond Green,
38:10 we got Draymond Green, except the people that know him,
38:12 and they all love him.
38:13 He's just, to the people that know him,
38:15 we love him dearly, great human being.
38:17 Super dad, great husband, great guy, great son.
38:21 Not, I don't have one ill word to say about Draymond Green,
38:24 but he's that kind of guy.
38:25 In the same way with Josh Allen, you don't want him.
38:28 I mean, you hate him unless he's on your team.
38:30 He's just a scrapper, fighter.
38:32 So get it into the fourth quarter.
38:34 Let him feel all the pressure, all of it.
38:39 Man, am I the only one who wishes it was game day?
38:42 Let's go.
38:44 Next, I want to talk about,
38:45 and this one's important, the blitz.
38:51 I don't think the Raiders have to blitz every play,
38:54 and that's not who they are, but they have to get pressure.
38:58 And they just, Al Davis, and I've said this before,
39:03 I don't remember the exact quote.
39:04 I don't remember if he said it within the first play
39:07 or the first series, but that quarterback
39:09 must get hit and hit hard.
39:10 Russell Wilson got pounded.
39:13 It was a physical ball game,
39:15 and the Raiders are bringing that.
39:18 I'm sorry, when I see Raider fans who are,
39:21 if we don't lose Sunday,
39:22 we'll know we're the same old Raiders.
39:24 That's so stupid.
39:25 Man, sometimes it's just better to be thought a fool
39:28 than open your mouth and prove it.
39:30 No one is going to, who's around football,
39:36 is going to think these Raiders,
39:37 any of us, these Raiders lose into the Bills,
39:39 a potential Super Bowl team at home.
39:42 Come on.
39:43 But if you're a Raider fan,
39:46 you got to be excited that Josh McDaniels
39:49 is bringing back that blue collar grit.
39:53 It's special.
39:56 All right, I got to get out to practice.
39:59 Well, actually, that's not true.
40:00 I got a lot to do to get ready to get to practice,
40:02 but I got practice coming up later today.
40:04 I don't even know what time it is.
40:05 It's early.
40:06 So most of y'all are probably sleeping,
40:08 but I'm going to get out to practice.
40:11 We'll have tons more content, tons more content.
40:15 And for you, follow me on Twitter @HondoCarpenter,
40:20 H-O-N-D-O-C-A-R-P-N-T-E-R.
40:23 Make sure you're on our Facebook page,
40:25 Las Vegas Raiders Insider.
40:27 Excuse me, it's Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation,
40:31 Las Vegas Raiders Insider on Facebook.
40:34 If you go to any of our stories,
40:35 there's always a link there to click to our Facebook
40:37 so you can like it.
40:38 Just get in.
40:40 Yesterday, again, we had 12 pieces of content
40:42 on the website, ton on YouTube, ton on Twitter.
40:45 We're going to have pictures from practice,
40:47 video from practice.
40:49 Going to take you inside the locker room.
40:52 Don't pay others for what we're giving you for free.
40:54 Remember, if you can't be here, we'll take you there.
40:58 It's going to be a lot of fun.
40:59 I appreciate you, Raider Nation.
41:01 We are growing so fast.
41:03 We have such a great team.
41:05 You know, Tom Lamar, who's a beat writer for 50 years,
41:08 now he writes every week.
41:09 By the way, he had a great story coming this morning
41:13 about Jimmy Garoppolo showing signs of Darryl LaMonica.
41:18 Make sure you read that story, Hort.
41:22 Great job, Tom.
41:24 Aiden Champion, one of our great writers.
41:27 Ezekiel Trezevant, another one of our great writers.
41:29 Carter Landis, Braden Reedy.
41:30 Darryl Craig Harris does our videos and pictures.
41:35 And we got such a great team.
41:37 And remember, 12 pieces of content just on the website.
41:39 Yesterday, probably closer to 20
41:42 when you look at all of our areas.
41:44 And it's all free.
41:46 And we're out there just bringing it.
41:50 So I appreciate all of you.
41:51 Remember to subscribe, follow us,
41:53 do all that kind of stuff.
41:55 I'm Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation,
41:57 Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast,
41:59 part of the Fans First Sports Network.
42:01 Thanks, everybody.
42:02 Hope you have a good day.
42:03 God bless you.