On the pathway to Saudi-Israeli normalisation: 'There's a great deal to be gained for both of them'
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00:00 The Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman says that a normalisation of relations with
00:03 Israel is "getting closer with each passing day."
00:08 Israel has already established ties with five Arab nations, but recognition from Saudi Arabia
00:12 is seen as being a historic prize in regional diplomacy.
00:15 However, Tehran says that ties between Saudi and Israel would be a "betrayal of the Palestinians."
00:21 Here's what the Iranian president had to say about that.
00:27 We believe that a relationship between countries in the region and the Zionist regime would
00:31 be a stab in the back for the Palestinian people and the Palestinian resistance.
00:37 The Iranian president speaking there.
00:39 Well let's get more now from Simon Maben who is a lecturer in international relations at
00:43 Lancaster University and author of "The Struggle for Supremacy in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia
00:48 and Iran."
00:49 Thank you very much indeed for joining us.
00:52 For whom is a future normalisation a greater prize?
00:55 Saudi or Israel?
00:57 Perhaps the United States and in particular President Joe Biden.
01:02 But of the two that you mentioned, I think there's a great deal to be gained for both
01:06 of them.
01:07 For the Israelis, it really symbolically puts an end to the decades-long struggle between
01:13 the Arab states and Israel.
01:15 For the Saudis, it further positions itself as a leading state in the region.
01:21 It cultivates deeper relations with another key ally and it can be used as a big degree
01:29 of leverage over Washington with regard to its broader commitment to security in the
01:35 Middle East.
01:36 And what about commitments to the Palestinians?
01:38 That was an issue that MBS was asked about and he made some commitments in what he said.
01:45 I mean, what did he say on that score?
01:49 Well not very much at all other than to commit to standing by the Palestinians and to make
01:54 vague nods towards Palestinian statehood.
01:57 Now it's worth stressing and reminding people that Saudi Arabia was the architect for the
02:01 Arab Peace Initiative, which is 20-odd years old now, but it remains to be seen to what
02:07 extent MBS is serious about standing by this commitment to the Palestinians.
02:13 What type of nods and concessions will the Israeli state give in order for there to be
02:18 normalisation?
02:19 Because MBS has allegedly called for Palestinian statehood, which is something that the United
02:24 States and others have also called for.
02:26 But that is not something that the Israelis would be willing to give up and indeed it's
02:31 not something that the right-wing dominated Knesset and Benjamin Netanyahu in particular
02:37 would be willing to agree to.
02:40 So that's where there's a real bit of tension as to how this moves forward.
02:44 Yeah, because I mean for the time being without there being normalised relations between Israel
02:50 and Saudi Arabia, the Israelis can disregard anything they're told or any suggestions that
02:55 come from Saudi Arabia with regards to the Palestinians.
02:57 But once dialogue begins, surely it becomes very difficult for them to ignore those demands,
03:03 especially if they're coming from other allies as well and therefore this could serve the
03:08 interests of the Palestinians quite nicely.
03:10 At least that's one theory.
03:12 Does it hold water do you think?
03:14 I'm not convinced to be honest.
03:15 I think the same arguments were made about the Abraham Accords that this would really
03:19 strengthen the hand of the Palestinians because they would have key Arab allies working more
03:26 closely with Israel and so the theory goes that they could exert more pressure from the
03:30 inside.
03:31 And yet very little has happened.
03:33 Those Arab states that signed the Abraham Accords have come in for a great deal of criticism
03:37 for not doing enough to support the Palestinians.
03:40 And the other dimension is that there is a kind of de facto normalisation between the
03:44 Saudis and the Israelis already.
03:46 The two are working together.
03:48 There's been a deepening of security cooperation, of technological cooperation.
03:53 And so that is different of course from an official recognition of the other.
03:58 But there is that de facto agreement, that de facto collaboration without any serious
04:05 moves being made to support the Palestinian cause.
04:08 So I'm sceptical.
04:11 Okay and just lastly, I mean there are 22 Arab League member states.
04:15 I mean obviously the Palestinians, let's put them to one side.
04:18 But do you think it's a matter of time before most of the others go down the same route
04:23 and start normalising ties with Israel?
04:26 Would you say there are countries that will simply never go down that road?
04:30 I think there's a couple that will perhaps stay out of the normalisation game if you
04:35 will.
04:36 I mean Qatar is the obvious example because of its staunch support for groups that Israel
04:42 has not engaged with.
04:46 It's got a strong support for political Islamist movements.
04:49 It hosts former Hamas leaders for example.
04:53 And it's articulated as a desire to continue standing against Israel.
05:00 But aside from that, I think Saudi Arabia is the big dominant of all and that will trigger
05:05 the others if indeed it does happen.
05:07 Okay, Simon Mabin at Lancaster University in the United Kingdom.
05:11 Thank you very much for taking the time to speak to us.