Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 A week full of developments, a week is the end of the third quarter of this year.
00:06 The developments were many.
00:09 The Americans were worried about a new closure in the government,
00:13 which may mean that they do not meet their salaries.
00:17 They were also worried about inflation and high interest rates.
00:22 Let's take a look at the performance of the world markets in the third quarter of this year
00:27 and how the markets have moved.
00:30 First, the US indicators that recorded the worst quarterly performance in a year.
00:36 In September, or in general in the third quarter,
00:39 we saw declines in Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ.
00:47 These indicators were the most declining.
00:50 Of course, the fear of high interest rates
00:53 may have cast its shadow on the performance of this quarter and the markets in this quarter.
00:58 Not necessarily, although we had seen expectations that the US Federal Reserve
01:04 would reduce the rate of inflation for interest rates.
01:08 This did not appear strongly until the September meeting
01:12 on the decision to increase interest rates.
01:16 But the inflationary trend continued in the US Federal Reserve
01:22 until 2023, with the possibility of an additional increase in interest rates.
01:27 Federal members also said that 2024 may also see interest rates above 5%
01:36 throughout the year.
01:38 This leads to the continuation of high interest rates for a longer period,
01:43 which is the opposite of the performance of the US indicators,
01:46 despite the inflation in a downward trend,
01:49 despite the fact that the economy is growing better than expected.
01:53 Therefore, all these factors did not affect,
01:56 except that interest rates had the greatest impact.
01:58 The other interest rates, in all their details,
02:01 affected the dollar indicator positively
02:04 and pushed it to record the best quarterly performance in a year.
02:08 The earnings of the dollar indicator rose to 3%.
02:11 Of course, all of this is related to interest rates.
02:15 And of course, the high dollar indicator and the talk about high interest rates
02:20 did not ignore or stay away from the European indicators,
02:24 which also declined during the quarter,
02:28 with a clear 3% or more than 3.5% decline in European indicators,
02:34 with, of course, the continuation of the inflationary trend
02:36 and the continuation of the talk about high interest rates
02:39 by the European Central Bank,
02:41 despite the fact that we saw some clear declines in inflation rates,
02:45 especially in the last reading of the euro area,
02:49 the inflation rates declined to 4.3%
02:53 with the decline of inflation also in Germany and others.
02:56 Therefore, this remains a positive indicator,
02:58 but it also remains far from the European Central Bank's target,
03:02 which insists on a decline in inflation to 2% levels.
03:07 In Britain, the situation was different,
03:09 because there is a growth in the British economy,
03:12 contrary to what was expected.
03:14 On the one hand, on the other hand,
03:16 we also saw a confirmation of interest rates by the Bank of England
03:21 during the last meeting,
03:23 which was contrary to expectations
03:25 that indicated another possibility of increasing interest rates.
03:29 The benefits of the markets related to the adjustment
03:32 with the profits and oil prices,
03:34 all factors supported the performance of British indicators
03:37 during the third quarter.
03:39 On the level of interest rates,
03:41 which achieved the highest profits in various markets,
03:45 oil prices recorded profits of only 25% per kilo of oil,
03:50 whether Brent oil or light oil.
03:52 Brent oil recorded 27% profits,
03:55 as well as light oil, more than 28.5% of profits.
04:00 Brent oil ended its circulation at levels of 92 dollars per barrel.
04:05 All these factors came from the declines
04:08 that the OPEC+ countries have decided during the past period,
04:12 as well as the voluntary declines imposed by Saudi Arabia
04:17 until the end of 2023.
04:19 The Russian declines also continue until the end of 2023.
04:23 The restrictions imposed by Russia on fuel exports,
04:27 all these factors supported the rise in oil prices,
04:30 in addition to the decline in US reserves.
04:33 We also see that the decline in US reserves
04:36 pushed the prices to higher profits.
04:38 Gold, in contrast to the dollar,
04:40 which we talked about,
04:42 and the US bond yields,
04:43 which recorded record levels,
04:45 both on the level of the bond yields,
04:47 which rose to the highest level since 2006,
04:50 as well as the 10-year bond yields,
04:53 which rose to the highest level since 2007,
04:56 to the 30-year bond yields,
04:58 which rose to the highest level since 2011.
05:01 All these factors equated gold in the third quarter of this year,
05:05 and gold returned more than 3.5%
05:09 during the third quarter,
05:11 and ended its circulation below the $1,900 level.
05:15 On the level of the Arab markets,
05:17 the Dubai market index is one of the most important markets
05:19 in the region, which recorded a positive performance,
05:22 a 10% increase on the level of the Dubai market index
05:25 during the third quarter.
05:26 There were some adjustments in FTSE reviews,
05:30 and MSCI reviews,
05:31 and specifically FTSE,
05:32 when it increased the weight and increase
05:35 of the Dubai national bond,
05:37 and we saw strong earnings on the Dubai national bond,
05:39 which reached record levels.
05:41 The Iamar bond also reached record levels.
05:44 In general, the banking sector and the real estate sector
05:46 witnessed a strong growth in the market of the index's support
05:49 in the third quarter,
05:50 or in the final quarter of September of this year.
05:55 Also in Abu Dhabi, on the level of the third quarter,
05:57 we saw second quarter earnings
06:00 on the balance sheet for the FTSE Abu Dhabi index,
06:03 even if the volume was less than what we saw in Dubai,
06:06 and earnings of 2.5%
06:09 The Kuwaiti first index on the level of the quarter performance
06:11 recorded reductions.
06:12 It is the worst for the Kuwaiti first index
06:16 since the second quarter of 2022.
06:19 The striking point is the reflection
06:22 that we see of foreign developments
06:25 which are much larger than the development of oil prices.
06:28 The Gulf markets on the level of the balance sheet
06:31 were clearly affected by what we see in oil prices.
06:35 We saw the surge and the jump recorded by the prices of the stocks
06:38 during the third quarter,
06:39 but it did not reflect the performance of the markets,
06:42 and the situation was reversed
06:44 completely between the Gulf markets
06:47 and the prices of the stocks.
06:48 The Qatar stock market index rose,
06:51 but slightly on the level of the third quarter.
06:54 The Saudi stock market index
06:55 as Aramco is the largest oil company in the world,
06:59 did not affect the Saudi stock market index
07:02 as we see in terms of the prices of the stocks,
07:05 but it was affected by the pressure related to interest rates,
07:08 and the banks' sector was reversed,
07:10 and there was a major pressure on the Saudi stock market index,
07:13 and it fell by more than 400 points,
07:16 and almost held above 11,000 points
07:19 at the end of the third quarter of this year.
07:22 The Bahrain stock market index also reversed by 1%,
07:25 and the Moscow stock market index also fell by more than 2%
07:28 at the end of the third quarter.
07:31 In Egypt, the situation was different,
07:33 and the Egyptian stock market index recorded 14% gains,
07:37 5% gains in the fourth quarter in a row.
07:40 It seems that the inflation rates,
07:41 the purchase of the Egyptians,
07:43 and the attempt to avoid inflation
07:46 have come mainly to the gains
07:48 that the Egyptian stock market index recorded more than 2,500 points,
07:53 which the index added only in three months
07:56 to rise above the level of 20,100 points
07:58 at the end of the third quarter of this year.