كيف غيرت OPEC الوضع في سوق النفط؟
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00:00How did the OPEC Plus extension change the low-production agreement until the end of the union from the oil market?
00:06The most prominent was the International Energy Agency, which greatly changed its expectations
00:11to say that because of this extension, we are in a kind of supply deficit
00:21and the reason for this is basically the extension.
00:25These expectations that were adjusted were made after the OPEC Plus extension until the end of June
00:32while before that we saw that we had a kind of deficit in the export.
00:38Why did the market today change in this way?
00:42The issue is not only related to the side of the expo that the International Energy Agency talked about
00:48but when we look at the demand, we had a rise in global demand for oil with more than 2 million barrels per day
00:56which exceeded all expectations.
00:58On the other hand, if we look only at the last month, we had a decline in global reserves of 1.7 million barrels
01:08and this 1.7 million barrels we had a decline in the reserves on a daily basis
01:13and this also contributed to the decline in the expo and the shift towards a supply deficit
01:18which is expected to continue with us as long as OPEC is committed to this agreement in the coming period.
01:26The dilemma is that the prices of oil during the past period were not only pricing the supply deficit
01:34but they were also pricing the geopolitical risks
01:37and the rise of geopolitical risks that we have seen are raising prices for Brent over the level of 90 dollars.
01:44This is a dilemma not only for the central banks in their fight against inflation
01:50but also for a very important file this year which is the file of the US presidential elections.
01:56There are expectations that the price of gasoline in the US may exceed 4 dollars
02:01and the highest prices will be from the summer of 2022 whenever we get closer to the election date
02:07if the prices remain at these levels.
02:10This is a very controversial file that will be in the elections that will be held on the 5th of November at the end of the year.
02:17If we look at the future expectations, all expectations indicate that we will remain in a supply deficit
02:23as long as OPEC continues to lower production levels
02:27especially since Russia has announced that it will focus more not on exports but on production levels.