Suri Cruise Really Saved Tom Cruise: "I've Made My Mistakes..."
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00:00 Top Gun, Maverick Box Office, Tom Cruise really did save movie theaters.
00:05 Paramount has announced that Skydance's Top Gun, Maverick will debut on VOD and DST, priced
00:12 to buy, on August 23, a week from today.
00:16 That gives it the standard 90-day theatrical window, although the film's DVD, Blu-ray and
00:21 4K HD release aren't until November 1.
00:26 That's 22 weeks after its May 27 opening day.
00:29 That's on par with Batman Back in 1989, which opened theatrically on June 23 and arrived
00:36 on priced to buy VHS on November 18.
00:39 That was considered early, as was Alice in Wonderland dropping on DVD after 88 days in
00:45 2010.
00:46 The massive gap between the PVOD date and the DVD date offers lessons learned concerning
00:51 theatrical windows.
00:53 Moreover, Tom Cruise's blockbuster made the difference between a decent summer and a movie-starved
00:59 box office disaster.
01:01 PVOD is not cannibalizing theatrical revenues
01:04 First, if Paramount thought the PVOD window would cannibalize the film's still-strong
01:10 $7 million in its 11th Friday-to-Sunday frame with a halfway decent shot at topping the
01:16 box office this weekend or next (theatrical box office take), they wouldn't be dropping
01:22 it on digital next week.
01:24 As we've seen at least since A Quiet Place Part II in the summer of 2021, a hit theatrical
01:30 movie doesn't automatically drop dead when it arrives on PVOD after 45 days, let alone
01:36 90 days.
01:37 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
01:42 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
01:48 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
01:54 Tom Cruise famously wanted a 100% box office hit, but he's not getting it.
01:56 The film's streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just
02:03 Netflix and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences,
02:10 which is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
02:17 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
02:24 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
02:31 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
02:38 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
02:45 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
02:52 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
02:59 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
03:07 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
03:14 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
03:21 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
03:28 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
03:35 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
03:42 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
03:49 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
03:56 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
04:03 The streaming debut is a different story, especially if more services (not just Netflix
04:10 and the brand-specific Disney+) become more commonly used by general audiences, which
04:17 is why Elvis debuted last week on PVOD but not (yet) on HBO Max.
04:24 He went for that then for some old guy rekindles his spark via a platonic relationship with
04:38 a 22-year-old muse prestige picture.
04:42 Top Gun, Maverick has a better shot at a Best Picture nomination than Spider-Man, No Way
04:48 Home, Star Wars, The Force Awakens or even The Dark Knight partially because the film
04:53 qualifies as aspirational.
04:55 When Peter Jackson's The Lord of the Rings opened 20 years ago, they were seen as unprecedented
05:01 artistic and commercial triumphs for unprecedented fantasy adventure cinema.
05:06 By the time Harry Potter 7.2 opened in the summer of 2011, there had been enough of a
05:12 turn toward IP-centric action-fantasy franchises that such a relative commercial ($1.342 billion)
05:20 and artistic triumph was seen as par for the course.
05:23 Likewise, the success of Guardians of the Galaxy, rave reviews, long legs and $773 million
05:31 global, meant little more than Hollywood continuing to case the MCU.
05:36 The smaller, star-driven, adult-skewing studio programmers felt comparatively aspirational.
05:43 You can make a case for aspirational representation helping push Black Panther over the goal
05:48 line, although rave reviews, white-hot buzz and $700 million domestic didn't hurt.
05:54 I'm guessing Wonder Woman probably just barely missed the cut in 2018.
05:59 However, the notion of Spider-Man, No Way Home getting in never felt plausible.
06:05 Its box office success didn't help anything else in the marketplace.
06:09 Its biggest triumph was contract negotiation which saw three generations of Spider-Man
06:15 heroes and villains interacting.
06:17 Paramount will argue that the artistic, mostly rave reviews and an A+ from CinemaScore, and
06:23 commercial, including James Cameron-style legs, success was aspirational.
06:28 It's a star-driven, real-world, adult-skewing Hollywood blockbuster that scored with adult-skewing
06:35 and irregular moviegoers.
06:37 Top Gun/Maverick really did save movie theaters this summer.
06:42 The film is a metaphor for how Hollywood so egregiously failed to create a new generation
06:47 of Tom Cruise-level movie stars that Cruise had to get off the bench and save the industry.
06:52 That subtext resonated in the summer of 2022, when it seemed like theaters might only be
06:58 safe for Marvel, DC movies and high-end horror flicks.
07:02 While the film is a nostalgia-tinged, IP-cashing legacy sequel, its success was partially driven
07:08 by older and irregular moviegoers who hadn't been to theaters in years.
07:13 It was a Passion of the Christ or American Sniper-level event which legged out to Near
07:17 Force Awakens-level success.
07:20 And at least some of that audience then showed up for regular movies like Elvis, Where the
07:24 Crawdads Sing and Bullet Train.
07:27 Top Gun/Maverick's exceptional success supplied a giant lifeline to theaters and cover for
07:33 studios willfully under-delivering regular theatrical products in an uncommonly sparse
07:38 summer.
07:39 Top Gun/Maverick accounted for 23% of the domestic summer movie lineup.
07:45 That is partially because it earned around $500 million more than even the rosiest projections.
07:51 The summer season is down 28% from 2019, even as the total number of theatrical releases
07:58 is down 55%.
08:00 The likes of Doctor Strange 2, $411 million, Jurassic World Dominion, $375 million, Minions
08:10 2, $350 million, and Thor/Love and Thunder, $325 million, all pulled as expected business.
08:19 Moreover, the strong earnings of Elvis and Where the Crawdads Sing show that Maverick
08:24 didn't harm its competition, all due respect to Lightyear and Nope.
08:29 Top Gun/Maverick only earned $150 million domestic; it still would have been Cruise's
08:36 second-biggest non-mission, impossible grocer since Jerry Maguire.
08:40 However, the overall summer box office would have been down 41% from 2019.
08:46 The massive overperformance made the difference between a halfway-decent summer season and
08:52 a product-starved catastrophe.
08:54 We Have Entered a Studio Created Two Months Lump
08:58 In concurrent factors, like Disney and 20th Century mostly sticking to streaming until
09:03 November, COVID caused post-production delays for tentpoles and studio programmers being
09:09 sent to streaming.
09:10 Meanwhile, the commercial reception of Tom Cruise's legacy sequel was the summer movie
09:15 Miracle Theatres needed.
09:17 Its domestic and global grosses represented Miracle No. 1.
09:21 Its pull among irregular moviegoers was Miracle No. 2.
09:25 2.
09:26 If those movie goers stick around, that'll be miracle number 3.