When Putin goes, Russia could be in big trouble. Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we’re counting down our picks for the most likely scenarios that could potentially play out should Vladimir Putin die in office.
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00:00 This is a precursor of a potential chaos in Russia, which will be really, really horrible.
00:08 Welcome to WatchMojo, and today we're counting down our picks for the most likely scenarios
00:13 that could potentially play out should Vladimir Putin die in office.
00:27 Number 10.
00:28 Russia could collapse into new states.
00:31 Following a period of economic stagnation and political tension, the Soviet Union dissolved
00:36 in 1991, resulting in the independence of 15 states, including Russia and Ukraine.
00:48 In the event of Vladimir Putin's death, Russia could experience a similar scenario due to
00:52 the loss of its central figure.
00:57 Russia is currently made up of dozens of regions, some of which are federal territories and
01:01 autonomous areas.
01:03 Putin's departure could potentially lead to increased internal tensions, prompting
01:07 some of these regions to seek greater autonomy or even independence.
01:18 Given Russia's historical response to separatist movements, such secession will likely not
01:23 occur peacefully.
01:25 Instead, it could end in a devastating civil war potentially claiming thousands, if not
01:30 millions of lives.
01:32 Number 9.
01:33 The possibility of a liberal Russian government.
01:36 As Putin's longstanding rule continues, many wonder how possible it would be to have a
01:41 strikingly different leader succeed him.
01:54 According to some experts, the chances of a liberal, reform-minded government taking
01:59 the reins largely depends on the timing of Putin's departure.
02:03 Currently, his conservative regime enjoys considerable popularity among Russians, so
02:08 a successor will likely keep things the same way.
02:11 But regardless of who comes next, Putin has said his successor should carry on his legacy
02:18 and be somebody he trusts to look after Russia once he's gone.
02:22 If it ain't broke, right?
02:24 However, with the war gradually worsening Russia's economic situation, public opinion
02:28 could change drastically in say four or five years.
02:32 If Putin's death coincides with this shift, the opposition might seize the opportunity
02:36 to install a more reformist president.
02:39 However, the extent of such a president's power remains a subject of debate.
02:52 Number 8.
02:53 The Russian military will be placed on high alert.
02:56 It is not news that Vladimir Putin's grip on Russia has significantly strained relations
03:01 with the West.
03:02 "With one announcement, Vladimir Putin left the world asking, would he?"
03:06 "I'm ordering the Minister of Defense and the Chief of the General Staff to put the
03:11 Strategic Nuclear Forces on special alert."
03:14 Given how central a figure he is to the country, Putin's death would create a leadership vacuum
03:19 that many of these foreign powers might seek to exploit.
03:22 As such, in the event of Putin's demise, the Russian military will likely be placed on
03:27 high alert, not only to maintain stability in the country, but also to deter any potential
03:33 external threats.
03:34 "In Russia, political repression will continue against all opponents of the regime."
03:40 With these forces already grossly occupied with the war in Ukraine, if Putin passes away,
03:45 certain vulnerable areas could remain exposed due to their resources being stretched thin.
03:50 "Intelligence reports suggest Russia is running low on ammunition and manpower.
03:54 Now it might be that Vladimir Putin asks President Xi of China to help with this military campaign."
04:01 Number 7.
04:02 The Russia-Ukraine war could be dismissed.
04:06 As the conflict in Ukraine persists longer than anticipated, many wonder if the war would
04:10 outlast Putin or vice versa.
04:12 "Now you would always have the same, the same line.
04:15 This war is forever."
04:16 In the former scenario, it's likely that Putin's successor could put an end to the
04:21 tense situation.
04:22 Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking with David Letterman, emphasized that Putin
04:27 consolidates so much power in today's Russia that his demise could lead to significant
04:32 institutional disruptions.
04:33 "It cannot depend on one person.
04:37 And when such a person leaves, institutions stop.
04:41 At that time, in the Soviet Union, everything stopped."
04:46 Amid such internal tensions, Russia would likely not have the time or resources to deal
04:50 with foreign matters.
04:52 Hence, the war could be dismissed altogether.
04:55 However, the situation remains complex.
04:58 With the many underlying historical and territorial issues, there is no guarantee that Putin's
05:04 death would lead to a successful conflict resolution.
05:06 "Because they are now presenting this war as an existential war.
05:10 You cannot, for instance, you cannot negotiate with Satan.
05:13 You cannot set a peace agreement with Satan.
05:17 You cannot even set a ceasefire with Satan.
05:20 So if it's a radical evil, it has to be exterminated."
05:23 Number 6.
05:24 The elites could impose their choice.
05:27 Putin's demise could potentially present two distinct outcomes for the future of Russia
05:32 and its people.
05:33 "In one way or another, a split in the current political elite is inevitable."
05:37 First, if the president designates his successor beforehand and outlines the installment process
05:42 for that individual, there would be less maneuvering room for high-ranking officials and elites
05:46 to impose their choice.
05:48 "In the Putin transition, it's very possible that he will pick somebody who is not now
05:52 a radar."
05:53 Conversely, in the event that Putin's death is sudden and there is no known successor,
05:58 the elites could exploit such a power vacuum to appoint an individual who is aligned with
06:02 their own interests.
06:03 Again, if this happens in the current climate, when Putin enjoys significant popularity among
06:09 his people, the subsequent government could be equally or even more radical than what
06:13 exists under him.
06:15 "For the protection of Russia and our people, we will certainly use all the means available
06:21 to us.
06:22 This is not a bluff."
06:24 Number 5.
06:25 Nikolai Petrushev could take over.
06:28 Russia's constitution stipulates that in the event of a president's death or removal
06:32 from office, the prime minister takes over as acting president.
06:36 We'll discuss more on that in a bit.
06:38 However, one of the most likely successors isn't the current prime minister.
06:42 Instead, it's Putin's close confidant and intelligence officer Nikolai Petrushev.
06:46 "It will be very difficult for the Kremlin to sell Petrushev to the Russian people as
06:51 somebody who understands their daily lives."
06:54 Since 2008, Petrushev has served as secretary of the Security Council of Russia and is said
07:00 to have greatly influenced Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.
07:03 "Petrushev, in fact, formulates and shapes the strategy, and he presents the strategy
07:08 to the president, which he already approves."
07:11 He also belongs to the Selevki, Putin's military circle, from which some experts believe his
07:17 successor will come.
07:19 If Petrushev takes over, his leadership would likely mirror Putin's, as both men share similar
07:24 ideologies and an aversion for the West.
07:27 "Nikolai Petrushev has been consistently hardline in opposing the West, and presumably he is
07:33 pulled Putin more and more into that position."
07:36 Number 4.
07:37 Vladimir Putin's constitutional successor.
07:40 As mentioned earlier, the Russian constitution dictates that if a leader is removed from
07:44 office, the prime minister steps in as acting president.
07:48 This is precisely how Putin assumed power in 1999, following former President Boris
07:53 Yeltsin's resignation.
07:54 "He made Putin head of the security services.
07:57 Then Putin was elected prime minister.
07:59 Then in 1999, Yeltsin resigned, Putin was president, and his way of operating was clear
08:06 from the start."
08:07 However, this provision only allows the acting president to hold the role temporarily, until
08:12 elections are conducted to choose a leader.
08:15 The current prime minister is Mikhail Mishustin.
08:17 "He was put forward as Putin's choice for prime minister after Dmitry Medvedev and his
08:22 entire government resigned on Wednesday."
08:24 While technically next in line, Mishustin is not seen as a permanent replacement for
08:29 Putin, as he isn't considered to be close enough to him.
08:32 It is therefore likely that in the event of Putin's death, Mishustin would only serve
08:37 as acting president long enough for a more formidable candidate to be elected.
08:41 "The president tasked the government to be at the cutting edge of the country's development
08:45 to ensure economic growth and the creation of new jobs.
08:49 It's the basis for efficient social policy."
08:51 Number 3.
08:52 Fresh elections.
08:54 If Vladimir Putin passes away today, there is no doubt that the Russian political landscape
08:59 would likely experience a period of uncertainty and tension.
09:02 "Russian politics has become a bloody game of competing loyalties, in a landscape of
09:07 power and patronage where loyalty matters more than competence."
09:11 The solution proffered by the constitution is simple.
09:14 The Russian Federation Council has 14 days to declare fresh elections for a new president.
09:20 These elections must be carried out within three months after the former president's
09:23 removal from office.
09:25 If for some reason the Federation Council is unable to do so, then the responsibility
09:29 falls to the Central Election Commission, which oversees both federal and local elections.
09:34 "Russian elections are an exercise in managed democracy."
09:38 Given Russia's current political climate, a candidate closely aligned with Putin's
09:43 policies and the conservative United Russia Party might have the upper hand.
09:47 "The Russian parliamentary election is a simple game.
09:50 450 seats in the Duma, three days of voting, and at the end, United Russia always wins."
09:58 Number 2.
09:59 An intense power tussle.
10:01 In 2017, acclaimed writer-director Amrando Iannucci released the political satire "The
10:07 Death of Stalin," which depicted a power tussle among Soviet officials after Joseph Stalin's demise.
10:12 "I must step up. I must take his place while he's on the floor."
10:19 "You just said he's irreplaceable."
10:20 "Irreplaceable.
10:21 Take his place as in assembling the Central Committee, of course."
10:24 While the film was praised elsewhere, it was banned in Russia, likely due to its uncomfortable
10:29 parallels.
10:30 According to some experts, if Putin dies, Russia could experience a real-life death
10:35 of Stalin scenario.
10:36 "Comrades, time to set aside our grief and begin to write the next chapter of our great
10:43 history."
10:44 In the 90 days before presidential elections are conducted, an intense power struggle could
10:48 unfold among influential figures within the Kremlin, the military, and the business elite.
10:53 Due to Russia's centralization around Putin, a smooth transition between governments may
10:57 not be likely.
10:58 "Russia is going through an important time in its history."
11:02 As such, the country might expect some level of factional infighting if he dies in office.
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11:24 Number 1.
11:25 Russia Will Likely Descend Into Chaos
11:28 Having ruled Russia with a firm hand for over two decades and consolidated immense power,
11:33 Putin's eventual passing would wield profound consequences for the country.
11:38 As mentioned earlier, his death could trigger political instability and power struggles,
11:42 which may eventually lead to civil unrest.
11:44 "All those who deliberately chose the path of treachery, who prepared an armed mutiny,
11:49 who chose the path of blackmail and terrorist methods will face inevitable punishment and
11:54 will answer both to the law and to our people."
11:56 This turmoil could stem from several factors, including the lack of a clear successor and
12:01 the absence of any framework for a subsequent government to operate on.
12:05 Moreover, the influence of military commanders potentially vying for leadership could further
12:10 complicate the situation.
12:11 "You see your national leadership divided, you hear Purgosian say, 'Hey, there was no
12:16 justification for this war,' and saying that the incompetent national leadership is the
12:21 cause of the vast amount of casualties that have been inflicted on the Russians."
12:28 While Russia has weathered multiple leadership transitions in the past, both during and after
12:33 the Soviet Union, it seems this one may pose an extraordinary challenge for the country.
12:38 "The Western elite make no secret of their goal, which is, I quote, 'Russia's strategic
12:43 defeat.'"
12:44 What do you think is most likely to happen if Putin passes away?
12:48 Share your predictions in the comments below.
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13:18 (upbeat music)