Election Simplified | Who Will Win Madhya Pradesh? | State Elections | Polls 2023 | Shivraj Singh - video Dailymotion

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Political Expert Amitabh Tiwari talks about the state elections in the state of Madhya Pradesh- the different parties in the state and their vote share.                                                                                                                           Episode 01- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VEl_MvbSMwQ&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1     Episode 02- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKKf34Zil9g&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&inde=2      Episode 03- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XFUBWNKOyrU&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=4     Episode 04: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KiDzTrxjTtg&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1                                                                                                                  Episode 05: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L8Vow6xUhV4&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=1                                                                                                                            Episode 06:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QMDPbDVnXZc&list=PLruG7WvKjQE8tAF-CJrzbiZKILgjq8XQs&index=3   Data Sources:  CSDS National Election Studies Axis My India Exit Polls  Elections Commission of India  www.indiavotes.com News Reports and Author's Proprietary Calculations  About Amitabh Tiwari:  Amitabh Tiwari is a political strategist & commentator. In his earlier avatar he was a corporate and investment banker.  @politicalbaba   #madhyapradesh #madhyapradeshelection #shivrajsingh #kamalnath #scindia #polls #stateelections #electioncommission #ec #bjp #muslim #obc #sc #st #hindus #votingpattern #vidhansabha #communityvoting #caste #castevoting #bjpvscongress #mpelection  #HWNews

Transcript

00:00 Now, let's discuss about the other state, Madhya Pradesh.

00:10 In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has been in power for almost 20 years, except for a brief 15-16

00:18 month period in 2018-19.

00:20 It has been in power since 2003.

00:23 Like Rajasthan, MP was one of the first three states where BJP was able to form its governments

00:30 after its formation in 1980.

00:33 Shivraj Singh Chauhan, the current Chief Minister, is the longest serving BJP CM, even higher

00:39 than Narendra Modi.

00:41 After Gujarat, MP is the state where BJP has been in power for the longest time.

00:48 The Congress under the leadership of Kamal Nath smells a chance to make a comeback, riding

00:54 on the anti-incumbency against Shivraj led government.

00:59 It also hopes that there is some sympathy factor in favour of Kamal Nath.

01:05 Congress had emerged as the single largest party, won 14 seats, just two short of majority

01:11 in 2018 and had formed the government with the help of independents and smaller parties.

01:17 But 15 months in its tenure, there was a rebellion led by Jyotiraditya Sindhiya, who took 22

01:25 MLAs along with him and these MLAs resigned and joined the BJP.

01:30 And the Congress government came into a minority, with the BJP making a comeback.

01:36 Now in 2023 election, both the parties have flipped their strategy.

01:42 In 2018, Congress contested on a combined leadership of Kamal Nath, Digvijay Singh and

01:49 Sindhiya, while BJP was contesting a presidential style campaign with Narendra Modi and Shivraj

01:55 Singh Chauhan at the helm.

01:57 This time, strangely, BJP is shying away from declaring Shivraj Singh Chauhan as the CM.

02:04 In fact, they even tried to replace him but couldn't find a replacement because he is

02:09 the only OBC CM which BJP has today.

02:13 BJP will be seeking votes in the name of PM Narendra Modi and contest the polls on a combined

02:19 leadership model.

02:21 On the other hand, this time, the Congress is attempting to make the contest presidential

02:26 style contest, pitching Kamal Nath vs Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

02:31 The BJP has realised that it is a tough seat by seat battle and has already announced 78

02:39 candidates much before the poll dates have been announced and has also put 3 ministers

02:45 and 7 MPs in the election frame.

02:49 On the other hand, the Congress after the success of Karnataka is harping on its 5 guarantees

02:56 for the poor, unemployed and the youth.

02:59 However, Shivraj Singh Chauhan, 'Mama' as he is fondly called, is trying to negate some

03:05 of these promises by launching schemes like 'Ladli Behna'.

03:09 However, Shivraj Singh Chauhan has become weaker in the Modi Shah era and the voter

03:16 clearly sees that the BJP is not projecting Shivraj if in such a scenario what happens

03:23 is that if the party itself is not confident of the leadership, how can the voter be?

03:30 Why is BJP not going ahead by declaring a CM face in Madhya Pradesh?

03:36 Friends, what happens is that in a Vidhan Sabha election, the local candidate role is

03:43 fairly important unlike the Lok Sabha election.

03:48 In the Lok Sabha election, the face of the Prime Minister, 37% people tend to vote.

03:54 While in the Vidhan Sabha election, if we take an average of these 4 states in 2018,

04:01 only 21% voters voted in the name of the CM or the PM.

04:07 39% people, the highest, voted in the name of the local candidate.

04:12 So the local candidate is fairly important in a Vidhan Sabha election.

04:16 BJP realizes this after loss in Himachal and Karnataka and that is why it is trying to

04:24 be battle ready for a seat by seat contest.

04:28 What are the polls saying?

04:30 Again Akhichudi here.

04:31 ABPC voter shows that Congress is likely to win the state.

04:38 Times Now ETG survey also says the same.

04:42 But IANS pollstrat predicts BJP retaining the state.

04:46 Again a word of caution, early opinion polls can tend to get wrong.

04:51 [MUSIC PLAYING]

04:55 you

Election Simplified | Who Will Win Madhya Pradesh? | State Elections | Polls 2023 | Shivraj Singh

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