Election Update 2023: Mizoram votes on Nov 7, Chhattisgarh's first phase on the same day, and the second on Nov 17. Results on Dec 3. Desh Ratan Nigam analyses BJP's strategy in Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, and Mizoram. Watch for insights.
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#MadhyaPradeshAssemblyPolls, #ChhattisgarhAssemblyPolls, #TelanganaAssemblyPolls #MizoramAssemblyPolls, #RajasthanAssemblyPolls #IndiaElections #StatePolls #PoliticalChoices #VoterVoice #ElectionCampaigns #DemocracyDecides
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NewsTranscript
00:00 Hello and welcome. You're watching One India News. My name is Pankaj Mishra and today we
00:04 are joined by Desh Ratan Nigam, a political analyst who needs no introduction. You have
00:09 seen him on several television news channels, but here on One India, we are going to discuss with
00:14 him the possibilities, the chances that start from tomorrow, which is November 7th onwards till
00:21 December 3rd. Obviously, there is 2024 elections also, but before that, this precursor to 2024
00:28 is the assembly elections in five states in India. Obviously, Desh Ratan, sir, you know,
00:35 talking about the states, obviously, Rajasthan, where there is a Congress government, then down
00:42 south, we come to Telangana, Madhya Pradesh and Satyajgarh, and then eastern part of Mizoram.
00:48 For BJP, as of now, let's start from the south. How important do you believe Telangana is and
00:53 what are the chances? Why would the electorate of Telangana vote for BJP if they choose to do so?
01:00 Well, Pankaj, the major parties in Telangana are the RS and Congress. BJP is making its way out
01:11 there. And we had seen in Hyderabad's municipal election that their impact in the Telugu area,
01:18 which they handsomely won despite the challenges given by almost all the parties. So,
01:24 I feel they'll do much better than expected. And probably they will be kingmakers out there.
01:31 Okay, because, because of the number of seats that they will capture, they will be probably
01:38 in a position to, you know, establish a government out there, the main party and
01:44 probably having a say in the governance of that particular state.
01:48 Right. Some, you know, political pundits would say that the shadow of Karnataka elections,
01:56 especially, you know, the graft or corruption charges, that is one also key aspect that is
02:02 coming to the fore as far as the Telangana elections are concerned. And do you believe
02:06 that the BJP's image that is, that has been anti-graft, you know, mostly as Mr. Modi has
02:12 also been projecting so far, would work in favor of BJP in Telangana? See, Karnataka was
02:19 a place where a perception was created of 40% cut money, but not a single complaint or
02:27 investigation has been started by the present government. Neither of the contractors who
02:32 alleged have filed any complaint, which they have under the right under CRPC to file it.
02:38 So it was a fiction that was created. And also some of the internal bickerings, one of the
02:43 important, you know, leaders left and joined the other side. So, and the vote percentage of
02:51 the BJP was almost the same. So BJP's strategy and especially in Andhra Karnataka, there was
02:58 some reaction of, you know, conversion taking place in Andhra for which BJP was considered
03:05 soft in Andhra Karnataka. That reason, probably not many people have been able to find,
03:11 but this was one of the, and BJP only got six seats in that particular region.
03:14 Right. So, so that if they had managed that, and that is where BJP does not have to leave its core
03:22 ideology, core focus area, the moment you leave it, you will find people who actually voted for
03:28 you on a particular plank. Your development agenda is going perfect. Your economy is perfect, despite
03:35 the doom and gloom in the world. India is the only hope and shining star in the world economy.
03:40 All those things are fine. That you will have to do and you are doing it. And the pace of economy
03:46 and the GDP and everything is growing quite fast. Data show IMF says, World Bank says, UN says,
03:53 everybody endorses India's, you know, stand. RBI is also very, you know, booming and saying,
04:00 saying things so positive about the country, but the core area, please remember, is Hindutva,
04:06 for which people are actually voting for, for those civilizational values that BJP stands for.
04:13 Indeed. I mean, the economic aspect, the economic superpower as India is emerging,
04:19 and a lot of ratifications have come, not just from within India, but from global voices also,
04:25 that Deshwar Tanjeeb, you know, at times is also factored in during the Lok Sabha elections,
04:32 as they say, that the issues are quite different, and maybe the sentiments could be different when
04:37 the assembly elections happen. So from that point of view only, Shivraj Singh Chauhan government in
04:43 Madhya Pradesh, do you think they have the chances as of now to retain the power? Because the way
04:50 Congress is claiming to have again, the draft part and the, you know, the money aspect once
04:56 again comes to picture, how is BJP preparing to fight against the Congress there? See, Madhya
05:03 Pradesh is, if you look at all the opinion polls, there you see some of them are giving
05:10 edge to BJP and some giving edge to Congress, which means it is quite close. However, BJP is
05:17 known for lifting elections in last 10 days, most of the surveys are seven, eight days old,
05:21 and say in the end of the October. So, BJP is known for lifting its elections in the last 10
05:28 days because of their grip through their Karkartas and booth level workers, Panna Pramukhs at the
05:33 ground level. That is where you're seeing this election is being lifted. And even presuming for
05:38 the sake of argument, these opinion polls with three, four percent in such a closely contested
05:45 elections, where margin error is three to four percent. And if that swing takes place, that will
05:52 be an absolute majority of either of the parties, which in my opinion should go in favor of the BJP
05:58 reason being, if Shivraj Chauhan is ruling from 2005 to 2023, with the exception of two years,
06:05 then such kind of a result is itself in favor of BJP. Because NT, huge amount of NT incumbency.
06:14 So this, and they have to build on that. And on one hand, you have the credibility of BJP, which
06:19 you know, executes its manifesto. One after the other, if you look at it, is they will implement
06:26 their manifesto. They not unlike Congress, where they promised so many things, probably one or two
06:31 things they will do that to at the end of the term, nearing the end of the term, so that the benefits
06:37 actually do not reach the people. So that is one credibility, they believe that BJP will deliver
06:43 on their promises. Congress, a big question mark on the deliveries and promises.
06:47 Right. In neighboring Chhattisgarh also, sir, you know, if you talk about Bhupesh
06:54 Bhaggil government, suddenly it has come under the cloud of Mahadev app and it has a lot of,
07:00 you know, words and counter points being given. How do you see BJP putting up a fight to the
07:09 incumbent Congress there? See, the earlier opinion polls did show that Congress has an edge,
07:14 no doubt about it. All the opinions polls were showing. Some were showing close.
07:18 Chhattisgarh, there was some gap between the two. And then Madhya Pradesh was quite a close contest.
07:26 Some giving edge to BJP, some giving edge to Congress. However, in Chhattisgarh, almost all of
07:33 them were giving edge to Congress. Some were close, but the edge was with the Congress. However, as I
07:39 said, last 10 days, whoever gets the vote of tribal people, tribal region is going to form the
07:46 government out there. That is one thing which is very clear, where the prime minister from since
07:51 two, three years, I've been concentrating on tribal votes, the huge rallies and awards and
07:57 the groundwork that they are doing. And some certain other organizations are also working
08:04 in which are not connected with BJP are also right thinking, right wing thought ideology,
08:09 they are working on the ground. So that is one aspect which one has to keep in mind. It's a
08:15 substantial, it's basically a tribal state. And it's high time that they get a tribal chief
08:22 minister also out there. And especially Mahadev, the accusations which are coming in, they are
08:31 very serious and dangerous in nature, right from establishment of Mahadev with the help of the
08:36 Congress politician, especially the name of Mr. Bhagel, Bhupesh Bhagel is coming, where the
08:41 persons, the owners of the Mahadev have said that they were encouraged, I think the word
08:47 encouraged has to be read deeply. You don't encourage a person in Dubai, you have to do a
08:53 lot many things in Dubai, there is direct participation. As a lawyer, I can, you know,
08:58 I can interpret that encouraged. And if that person becomes a approver, let me tell you,
09:03 it's all a problem for it's a big problem for Congress. And this has affected the people
09:09 coupled with the Mr. Modi's outreach, Raman Singh has also come on the ground.
09:13 He was not there for some time. So the difficulty with BJP out there is the alternate leadership,
09:19 which was supposed to get not Raman Singh, then who, but that also is sometimes a boon in disguise.
09:27 Reason being there are three or four, five in the second run, they all have to work hard and prove
09:32 themselves. And if they do well, one of them will come up. So this is exactly what they are
09:38 doing in Rajasthan also. So everybody is working and Mahadev app, 508 crores,
09:46 508 crores, clear saying that it has been given to them. Some recoveries have taken place about
09:52 five, six crores or rupees have been got, which was being used. And therefore, if a person,
09:57 the owner himself says that we have done so and given the money, which means he's on the way of
10:03 becoming an approver, the way the you had approvers in the Delhi liquor and scams case, that becomes
10:09 very dangerous because they know where the money was given and what exchanges have taken place,
10:14 what could, who has taken place in terms of that. Right.
10:18 No, I indeed, both the enforcement rate and the ministry of information technology who have
10:24 flagged this issue are on the hot pursuit of what transpired and the money trail. Definitely. I mean,
10:30 that is also one key aspect which will come to light in the days to come. Talking about Rajasthan,
10:36 Deshwetanjeev, the house, the BJP house somehow appears to be divided there,
10:41 you know, which was the case of Congress earlier, the way Ashok Gaylod and Sachin Pilate were
10:48 washing their dirty linen in public. Now, where do you think that the BJP stands there
10:52 in putting up a fight to this Gaylod government?
10:56 Well, Pankaj, you see, there has always been a past precedent that the governments change every
11:04 five years. Right. And that trend is in BJP's favour, one. Second, the anti-Hindu stand taken by the
11:15 Gaylod government. If you recall, in some Rajasthan areas during Hanuman Jayanti, during
11:23 Ram Nami riots had taken place in some of the areas of Rajasthan. Yes, yes. And then police
11:28 there did not do some minor arrests, nothing has taken place. The killing of Kanhaiya Lal,
11:33 it should have been fast-tracked. It was such a brutal murder. It has not been a corruption.
11:38 The red diary, Lal diary, which has come out from their own minister. It is not BJP which brought
11:44 out. It is from their own minister. Corruption, unemployment, law and order is a big issue out
11:49 there. Therefore, I feel and BJP at the same time has not given any CM's face out there. So everybody
11:59 has got to work very hard. Right. Very hard to at least prove, to ensure that the party comes in
12:05 power and then they will decide. In Madhya Pradesh also, they have brought all heavyweights because
12:11 it appears that there was some lethargy in BJP. That Mr Modi will come, make them win the elections.
12:17 So we are ultimately winning. Now they have shown everybody, you've got to earn every paisa.
12:26 You've got to earn your point. You've got to make a place and get connected with the people.
12:34 So Kailash Vijay Vargiya, others, they've been asked to go down on the streets. You reconnect
12:40 with the people. An MP is now contesting an MLA election. So you can imagine. But he is still
12:48 canvassing there. That's how BJP operates also, going to the grassroot level.
12:53 Yes, yes. See, it's a grassroots workers party. There was a party once upon a time,
12:59 Communist Party, which used to be grassroots level workers party. But if you notice in India,
13:06 the policies, you know, those days are over where, you know, lakhs of people used to converge in
13:12 Delhi Communist Party, Lal Janda and workers strike, farmers strike. That has been taken away
13:20 by the BJP through their policies. Jandan Yojana, farmers, you know, six thousand rupees going, so
13:27 many other benefits going. Women power, women are the favorites of BJP. They vote a lot for BJP,
13:34 especially in tribal areas and other areas, urban areas. There are no issues with women.
13:39 They obviously go. In rural areas, they started going because most of the benefits which are going
13:44 say for Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana in the name of women. So they do realize that women empowerment
13:50 is absolutely necessary, coupled with all the state about women reservation. Congress
14:00 don't abandon your child. We saw that in UP elections also in 2021, the way Yogi Adityanath
14:08 came back to power. Obviously, statistics, especially women voter statistics are in favor of
14:14 the chief minister. Indeed, so one final question, Deshchhotanji, before we wind up this discussion
14:21 is about the Northeast, Mizoram. Obviously, you know, many a times we have seen a little less
14:27 coverage and conversions from Northeast, but this time around, once again, very crucial state
14:31 borders with Manipur also. MNF is ruling there. BJP is a small ally. Zoram Thangay has been a
14:39 vocal critique of the BJP led government in Manipur, the way things transpired. Do you believe
14:44 that Manipur's impact would be there on Mizoram elections and maybe undercut the role of BJP there?
14:52 See, there, if you look at from the religious point of view, Mizoram is a Christian state.
14:57 Yes. And cookies are also Christians. So that could be there, but that religious angle is not
15:06 being played out there. Actually, Rahul Gandhi went there about 20 days of, I think, 25 days before.
15:14 And then did try to, you know, give that color and angle in his various meetings with the people.
15:22 But BJP's, you know, look East policy, the Northeast, the way it has been transformed,
15:28 brought on the tourism map, the transportation that has been done, the health infrastructure
15:35 is slowly, slowly improving, which in fact, all those factors have been, you know, emphasized by
15:40 the Prime Minister, Mr. Modi through his video message that he released. And he was to be there,
15:47 but he could not because probably, I believe, some intelligence report or something. He was unable to
15:53 I don't know what was the reason to stop a Prime Minister to going into the Northeast requires
15:58 a Herculean effort. Please remember that he loves Northeast. Northeast is deep from his heart.
16:05 So not going there probably himself feels that he should have been there, but maybe some
16:11 reasons for which I am not aware, but only possibility is some kind of intelligence report,
16:15 which their security apparatus may have, you know, advised against him or strictly against it. So
16:21 Northeast, I believe, ultimately, BJP should be part. And if you look at the NIDA, Northeast
16:27 Development Agency, which is there and Hemantabhishek playing a key role out there. I think
16:33 Hemantabhishek is again, yes, again, beyond Assam. He knows that region at the back of his hand.
16:41 So I believe he will be again crucial. And Northeast has always been the agenda of the
16:47 BJP and Mr. Modi to bring them in the mainstream, their mainstream Northeast. Today, Northeast is
16:53 not talked about as if, you know, because of the far-flung area and because of threat of China,
17:00 the Prime Minister's earlier Prime Minister never used to visit Arunachal Pradesh. Now, this Prime
17:05 Minister goes, the Defense Minister goes, this is our area, our part, integral part of India.
17:11 And therefore, no, not a single state is considered to be a far-flung area. It has been
17:18 mainstream. It has become a part of heartland, heartland of India. So I think all those are
17:23 positives because I have my personal friends who studied with me in college from the Northeast,
17:27 and they are very happy. And they said, we are, businesses have grown, our tourism industry is
17:32 growing. Connectivity. Yes, because of connectivity and not of, apart from connectivity,
17:38 the mental change that has come from being sidelined to being mainstreamed. That's very
17:45 important. That's what they realize that they are a citizen of this country like any other state.
17:51 Earlier they were taught, okay, Northeast hai toh kya hai.
17:53 No, no, you are right. You are right, sir. Because I remember 2014 when Prime Minister Modi took
18:00 charge as a Prime Minister, the first appointment that had happened was towards, you know, a link
18:07 between someone to oversee the Northeast Connect. And that speaks volumes that right from the word
18:14 go, BJP government has put its focus on Northeast. Nonetheless, Deshchukun, sir, thank you so much
18:19 for speaking to us. We need no power to speak to you more often in this election season and beyond
18:24 also. So please spare some time from your busy schedule. I know, you know, you have to deal with
18:29 legal cases also at your work and also as a profession. But we will keep a close eye on
18:37 the developments tomorrow as well. Mizoram goes to court, so does Shatisgarh. And we will be
18:41 following it up. Thank you. Thank you, Pankajji, because I also look forward. It's a wonderful
18:45 platform that you have with millions of subscribers. And what we say out here is
18:51 actually reaching people. Thank you. Definitely, sir. That's the effort. Thank you.