NASCAR.com's Kim Coon and Alan Cavanna break down the upcoming race at Homestead-Miami Speedway and what you can expect to see on Sunday.
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00:00 Green, green, green.
00:00 You got no help from the three.
00:03 Clear about eight, two behind you.
00:04 Solid front here, just hitch marks.
00:06 Checkered flag.
00:07 Checkered flag is in the air, and Kyle Larson
00:10 wins the Dixie Vodka 400.
00:12 Hell yeah, Miami, baby.
00:14 Good job, dude.
00:15 [BLEEP] yeah, guys.
00:16 So happy for you, Kyle.
00:17 Happy for this team, guys.
00:19 We're zillion.
00:20 Proud of all you guys.
00:22 [CHEERING]
00:26 Hey, race fans.
00:32 Welcome to the preview show delivered by DoorDash.
00:34 I'm Kim Kuhn, alongside Alan Kavanaugh.
00:36 And the NASCAR Cup Series, they are
00:38 headed from one intermediate track
00:40 to another going to Homestead Miami Speedway this weekend.
00:42 Love this track.
00:43 The drivers love this track because it offers them options.
00:46 They can be on the bottom lane.
00:47 They can run all the way to the top of the wall.
00:49 And they have the option to make their car
00:51 better throughout a run.
00:52 That's why they love this track.
00:53 OK.
00:53 As they prepare for this weekend,
00:55 what is in their notebooks?
00:56 Oh, their notebook has to go back a full calendar year
00:58 because we haven't been there this season so far.
01:00 So I was talking with crew chiefs.
01:02 They go back and look a little bit.
01:03 It's the same tire they ran last year.
01:05 Crew chiefs like to see that.
01:06 They can get some notes there.
01:07 But let's face it.
01:08 The biggest obstacle for the entire field is--
01:11 let me check.
01:11 Yeah, Kyle Larson.
01:13 Go back and check the notebook a year ago,
01:14 and it'll tell you Kyle Larson led the most laps,
01:17 swept both stages, and won the race.
01:19 Does this sound familiar?
01:20 Yeah, he just did that last week.
01:22 Just a little bit like deja vu.
01:23 Yeah.
01:24 And now he's going there with no pressure
01:25 because he won Las Vegas.
01:27 He can go and dominate again this weekend.
01:29 Teams have to figure that out.
01:30 What they can do to get past Kyle Larson and those Hendrick
01:33 cars, that's going to be an uphill battle for some,
01:35 only because there's no pressure on the 5 car.
01:37 There are a couple other obstacles, though,
01:39 that I think crew chiefs have to pay attention to.
01:41 That's Pit Road.
01:41 Last year seemed a little treacherous.
01:43 Tyler Rettick had a slow stop.
01:45 We saw Ryan Blaney spinning off the Pit Road access exit.
01:48 And then Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson
01:50 making contact on Pit Road.
01:52 You've got to be very careful.
01:53 That can definitely throw a hiccup into your day.
01:55 And then the other thing, points.
01:57 You've got to score stage points this weekend
01:59 because the points battle is so close right now.
02:01 From the second to the fifth position, really, really close.
02:03 You look at William Byron.
02:04 He's in second on the points standings, only nine points
02:07 to the good.
02:07 That can be wiped clean so easily,
02:09 depending on what he does in a stage.
02:11 All the work he's done this season,
02:12 he only has a nine point buffer.
02:13 It's like, come on, man.
02:14 And then Christopher Bell.
02:15 I think of last week, he had such a good run,
02:17 finished second.
02:18 He's still below the elimination line.
02:20 So tough out there.
02:21 And then on the bottom, though, we've talked Chevy.
02:23 We've talked the Toyotas.
02:25 What's up with those Fords?
02:26 Those Fords, as we look at the points standings,
02:28 Chris Buescher, minus 23.
02:29 Ryan Blaney, minus 17.
02:31 Now, they're not completely out there
02:33 in terms of being able to make up points.
02:35 But they haven't had the speed on the intermediates.
02:37 We were worried about them last week.
02:38 I think that worry can continue into this week.
02:40 And so they're on my bad list.
02:42 Yeah, maybe Martinsville for them.
02:44 Not so much the mile and a half track.
02:46 Yeah, Martinsville is maybe their light
02:48 at the end of the tunnel.
02:49 We'll see what they can do this weekend.
02:50 But who else are the players on your scorecard?
02:53 Well, I'm looking at all the current remaining playoff
02:55 drivers.
02:56 Because you look back to last year, sort of an outlier.
02:58 Eight of the top 10 in last year's Homestead race
03:01 were not in the playoffs.
03:02 That's strange to me.
03:03 I don't think that happens again.
03:04 Larson's too good.
03:05 Byron's too good.
03:06 Hamlin, Bell, Reddick I'll throw in there, of course.
03:10 Just it's too late in the season for the cream
03:12 not to rise to the top at a track like Homestead.
03:14 I think the playoff drivers excel,
03:16 just like they did in Las Vegas.
03:17 OK, you mentioned Tyler Reddick.
03:19 He maybe would have been my favorite headed to Homestead
03:21 if it weren't for his performance or lack thereof
03:23 at Las Vegas.
03:24 And you know, they didn't have the car
03:25 they needed all race long.
03:27 He talked about it being too loose.
03:28 He couldn't use the high line like we typically
03:30 see him like to do.
03:31 In fact, in his post-race interview,
03:32 he said he was so concerned by their performance at Vegas
03:35 that they might have to dig into their notebooks
03:37 and do a little work headed into Homestead-Miami Speedway.
03:39 A little worrisome for the 45 team.
03:42 But every week we go with the playoff pulse,
03:44 giving you the good, bad, and wild card
03:46 for the upcoming weekend.
03:48 Who is your good then for Homestead?
03:50 It's an easy pick.
03:51 Kyle Larson.
03:52 I don't know if that's cheating, but I got to say, yes, he already
03:55 won the past weekend.
03:56 He's locked into Phoenix.
03:57 There are no worries there.
03:58 But even if he hadn't won Las Vegas,
04:00 you look at his performance last year,
04:02 you mentioned it led 199 laps swept both stages.
04:06 Again, no pressure on that team.
04:08 So I think they go back to back and get a win this weekend.
04:11 Keep a playoff driver from locking themselves
04:12 into the championship four.
04:14 Yeah, playoff driver like my good pick, Tyler Reddick.
04:17 I know he didn't have the best Vegas race, but he won at Kansas.
04:21 Go back to Darlington, another track where you run the high side.
04:23 He finished second to your boy, Kyle Larson.
04:26 So I think Tyler Reddick can overcome some of that,
04:28 and he gets the win on Sunday.
04:29 He's my good pick.
04:30 OK, so the good.
04:32 What about the bad?
04:33 My bad.
04:34 Look, second week in a row, I got to go Chris Buescher.
04:36 We keep telling you the stats.
04:37 He's never had a mile and a half finish in the top five.
04:40 Last week at a mile and a half track, the worst of the playoff drivers.
04:44 It's hard to overcome those points.
04:45 You going with him?
04:46 I'm going with him, too.
04:47 I know.
04:48 He just hasn't had the speed.
04:49 And he was really confident about his car headed into Vegas.
04:51 Just didn't have track position all day.
04:53 In fact, so few opportunities with track position for that team
04:56 that they scored no stage points.
04:58 And I think you could see a similar story this weekend.
05:00 Not good.
05:01 How about your wild card?
05:02 I'm going with Martin Truex Jr.
05:03 Oh.
05:03 I know we've talked about it before, but the big question
05:06 is, which 19 team is going to show up?
05:08 Yes, they had a relatively strong Vegas in that they finally
05:12 broke that streak of seven straight finishes outside the top 15.
05:15 But it was a ninth place finish.
05:17 And he didn't have track position all day.
05:19 So again, which 19 team is going to show up?
05:21 You're going MTJ.
05:22 I'm going with the disruptor.
05:23 I'm going with the Florida man, the melon man, Ross Chastain.
05:28 Look, I know he's not in the playoff anymore, still competing for a title,
05:31 but still fast.
05:32 Had a great run in Las Vegas.
05:34 Go back to last year, Ross Chastain finished second at Homestead.
05:37 If there's going to be a disruptor, Ross Chastain is doing it at the right time.
05:41 Maybe the melon man puts a W up there on Sunday.
05:44 I like it.
05:45 I like it.
05:45 Homestead advantage.
05:47 All right, it's time for our NASCAR 75 flashback.
05:49 Each and every week, we look back at a past race.
05:52 Where are we headed?
05:53 We're going to Homestead Miami Speedway just nine years ago.
05:56 Hard to believe it's been that long.
05:57 To the first time, we did the winner take all championship format.
06:02 2014, we remember Kevin Harvick won it.
06:04 But it's fun to go back and look at how he did it.
06:07 Restart with nine laps to go.
06:09 Kevin Harvick is sixth on the restart.
06:11 And in less than a lap, he's in second and then quickly to the lead.
06:15 Then there's another caution.
06:17 Crazy, with three laps to go, they have a restart.
06:19 Kevin Harvick on the front row next to contender Ryan Newman.
06:22 A huge underdog Newman was.
06:24 He gives it his all in that 31 car.
06:26 But it is Harvick getting the advantage.
06:28 Eventually, the title.
06:30 It's been the norm ever since.
06:32 But that first time we saw it sure was exciting for Kevin Harvick.
06:35 What a perfect flashback because we're honoring Kevin Harvick this weekend.
06:38 It is the forever 400 presented by Mobile One.
06:41 And he's got the same paint scheme, a throwback to when he won that title.
06:44 Very cool.
06:44 Oh, I love it.
06:45 We'll see if the closer can close out his career at Homestead Miami Speedway
06:48 with a win, maybe.
06:49 Maybe.
06:50 Checkered flag would be cool.
06:51 Tune in October 22nd.
06:53 It's this Sunday, 2:30 PM Eastern on NBC.
06:55 And make sure you join us right back here next week for the preview show
06:58 delivered by DoorDash.
06:59 She's Kim.
07:00 I'm Alan.
07:01 We'll see you then.
07:03 [MUSIC PLAYING]
07:07 [EXPLOSION]
07:10 (upbeat music)