AccuWeather's long-range experts are warning the snow drought could be broken. Find out what to expect.
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00:00 Last winter was a very underwhelming one for snow fans in and around the Delaware Valley.
00:06 We only had three-tenths of an inch of snow in Philadelphia.
00:09 It was the second least snowy winter in Philadelphia history.
00:12 The only less snowy winter than that was the tremendously disappointing winter of 1972
00:18 to 1973 when we just had a trace of snow.
00:21 It wasn't even measurable, that particular winter.
00:24 We had just a tiny amount one morning in the grass at the airport this past winter.
00:27 Some of you may celebrate that, but there are some snow fans out there.
00:30 So let's take a look at El Nino.
00:31 This is a big driver this year.
00:33 And what is El Nino?
00:34 We're looking at warmer than average water in the central and eastern Pacific.
00:38 And this follows three years with cooler than average water in this area.
00:41 So after three straight years of La Nina, it's the opposite signal.
00:45 And what does this mean to us thousands of miles to the southwest?
00:48 El Nino ultimately has some downstream effects.
00:51 It leads to this kind of a configuration in the jet stream.
00:54 So we have a split flow pattern where the southern branch of the jet stream will be
00:58 well removed from the northern branch.
01:00 And the northern branch of the jet stream tends to keep the coldest air sequestered
01:04 north of it way up into Canada.
01:07 Meanwhile, there will be numerous disturbances and storms that pivot across the southern
01:12 branch of the jet stream bringing some pretty active weather into the south.
01:15 So what does that do for us here in Philadelphia?
01:16 Well, we will have opportunities for big snow.
01:19 Historically, some of our big snow events in the past have happened during El Nino winters
01:24 when you get a disturbance in the northern branch of the jet stream and sometimes migrate
01:28 south and a storm in the south that comes up.
01:31 And if they coincide timing wise, we can get explosive snow potential for I-95.
01:37 Now there will be times when we're too mild.
01:39 We'll get rain at times.
01:40 You can see the overall flavor of the summer, or of the winter I should say, will be actually
01:46 warmer than average in the northern U.S. because that northern branch is at times going to
01:50 be camping out over Winnipeg and up into Quebec and so forth.
01:54 And we'll probably end up about a degree or so above the long-term historical average
01:58 in Philadelphia for our winter temperature.
02:00 That means a little milder than average, but not off the charts warm.
02:04 And to the south, we're going to be colder with that frequent storm path.
02:08 When it comes to the snow departures from normal, considering that southern storm track,
02:12 the northern fringe of storms in the winter often lead to some snow and we can see above
02:15 average snow in the parts of the southern plains into the mid-Atlantic.
02:19 Not a terribly strong signal specifically for us.
02:21 We might have a smaller number of snow events than normal, but the snow that does fall could
02:26 come in big numbers because of that coastal influence of storms coming up the east coast
02:32 and potential for nor'easters and so forth.
02:33 Some of our big snow events in the past do come during El Nino winters.
02:38 So last year we had that miserable, or at least meager, 0.3 inches.
02:43 Some of you love that.
02:44 The snow fans have been disappointed.
02:46 But as we look at the prediction for this year, we're looking at 16 to 24 inches of
02:50 snow, which is closer to average.
02:53 In fact, it's a near normal or maybe slightly below normal winter.
02:56 But I think in the world of public perception, it may seem snowy because we didn't see much
03:01 at all last winter.
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