مع قفزة الديون والعجز.. أميركا مهددة بفقدان التصنيف الممتاز الأخير
Transcript
00:00 It seems that the lack of funds and debts threaten the most reliable economy in the world, the United States economy.
00:08 This time, the Moody's agency, which has changed its view of the future of the American economy from stable to negative.
00:16 But the agency has still established the reliable rating of the American economy at the same levels as the AAA.
00:25 Therefore, these ratings are the excellent rating for the American economy.
00:31 But before the Moody's step, there was Fitch and S&P, which also reduced the reliable rating of the American economy.
00:39 In August 2023, Fitch reduced the rating to AA+.
00:44 In addition, in 2011, S&P Global also reduced the reliable rating of the United States from AAA to AA+.
00:53 But what are the factors and reasons that led Moody's to take this step to change its future view of the American economy?
01:03 The initial fears that the strong rhetoric in the American economy challenge, we are talking here about the risks that threaten the reliability rating,
01:12 starting with the continuation of the huge financial failure for the American economy.
01:17 This is what we saw in the financial year 2023 and its recording of the third largest financial failure at nearly $1.7 trillion for the American economy.
01:30 The weakening of the ability to bear debts, also in light of the strong increases that we have recently seen in the high interest rates,
01:38 which have reached their highest levels in 22 years.
01:42 This also affected the rise in debts, in addition to the political collapse that prevents the reach of a unified financial plan.
01:50 Here we are talking about the legislators in the American Congress in order to reach a unified financial plan in terms of reducing these debts.
01:59 As for the pros that the agency looked at, it is the beginning of the strength of the American economy and the resources it enjoys.
02:07 In the third quarter of this year, we saw that the overall result of the American economy was able to achieve a growth of higher than expected at 4.9%.
02:16 Several factors that the American economy has, have proven the extent of its strength and also the strength that the dollar has enjoyed during the past period.
02:24 Positive growth also slows down the decline in the ability to bear debts, and therefore these are the factors that may support the American economy in light of these givings.
02:35 But a slowdown in the future may actually threaten the actual classification of the American economy in light of the number of factors and also the circumstances that we are witnessing with the upcoming US elections
02:47 and also the regression that we have seen in terms of the opinion polls of the Biden administration.
02:52 Therefore, this puts the economic situation and also the circumstances under review.
02:57 There are also expectations that the interest payments will increase.
03:01 If we talk about 2022, the interest payments were about 9.7% of the revenues at 1.9% of the overall result.
03:11 These interest payments have increased to about 26% of the revenues, representing 4.5% of the overall result for 2023.
03:22 As for the national debt, we notice that the agency expects that there will be an increase in this debt to reach about 50 trillion dollars by the year 2033.
03:35 And indeed, the current rate of this debt is more than 33 trillion dollars.
03:42 Therefore, reaching the 50 trillion levels represents 120% of the overall result of the American economy.
03:50 One of the main obstacles that may be a hindrance to the US's credit rating is the fear of the possibility of a government shutdown on November 17.
04:04 Therefore, we noticed that there are differences in the US Congress regarding government funding, especially in the defense fund and also the funding for assistance for Israel and Ukraine.
04:18 We also noticed that the current President of the House of Representatives, Mike Johnson,
04:23 is committed to a temporary funding plan to prevent a government shutdown in the near future.
04:31 These were the main reasons that the Moody's agency had in its view of the future of the American economy.
04:40 Thank you for joining us.