Speaking with TIME’s Chief Marketing Officer Sadé Muhammad, Bogolo Kenewendo, the regionalisation director and special advisor to the U.N.; Kennedy Odede, the founder and CEO of Shining Hope for Communities; and Hanan Morsy, the chief economist at the U.N. Economic Commission for Africa reflected on their experiences in government and non-profit sectors during the session, which followed a moving poetry performance by the Sudanese poet and activist Emi Mahmoud, who is also a UNHCR Goodwill Ambassador.
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00:00 Thank you all for being here, and thank you to the audience.
00:05 We're going to get right into it.
00:06 So the African continent's population,
00:09 as we've spoken about today, is projected
00:12 to reach over 1 billion people by 2040
00:15 and will become the largest workforce globally, mainly
00:19 concentrated in urban areas.
00:21 Vogel, I'll start with you.
00:23 What steps can be taken to ensure
00:26 that this demographic dividend translates
00:29 into meaningful and sustainable growth?
00:33 Well, thank you very much for having us.
00:35 It's such a pleasure to be able to join you.
00:38 That question is very loaded because there
00:40 are various ways to look at it.
00:43 But the one area that I choose to think about it
00:45 is from an economic and social perspective.
00:50 What is key right now is to make sure
00:53 that the economy functions in order
00:55 to provide sustainable livelihoods
00:57 to the very youthful population.
01:00 And it is with building the economy,
01:03 with providing access to jobs, access to industrialization,
01:09 to health care, to basic systems that we can truly
01:13 say we will be able to harness the demographic dividend
01:16 to grow the economy in the continent.
01:20 And there are several aspects that we
01:22 need to put in place in order to realize this.
01:26 First of all, what does it mean that by 2050,
01:29 47% of the youthful population will be in the continent?
01:33 It essentially means that the labor force for the world
01:37 will be in the continent.
01:38 But are we training that labor force
01:40 to ensure that youthful population,
01:43 to ensure that it actually translates into a labor force?
01:46 And then our policies actively promoting industrialization
01:51 and value addition to ensure that that labor force actually
01:55 translates goods and the development into something
01:58 that is worth trading.
01:59 And then lastly, that demographic, as it gets older,
02:03 is it termed as a lost generation?
02:06 Or is it one that has sustainable livelihoods
02:09 and are actively adding to the growth of the economies?
02:12 And we see this shift of African countries
02:15 from low income to middle income and hopefully to high income.
02:20 That is what it means by harnessing
02:22 the demographic dividend.
02:24 In the end, having livelihoods that
02:26 are not solely dependent on the social welfare
02:28 system of a government, but also are
02:31 able to realize in their own spaces, livelihoods
02:36 and incomes that can also propel the general economy.
02:40 Absolutely.
02:41 Hanan, I would love to throw that question now over to you.
02:47 Thank you very much.
02:48 It's a pleasure to be here.
02:50 I think what we need to actually reap
02:52 the benefits of that youth dividend and population
02:57 dividend is to actually have a paradigm shift of what
03:01 we have seen before.
03:03 We need to have policymaking that
03:06 focuses on moving up the value chain rather than what we have
03:11 seen in many African countries with exporting development
03:15 opportunities by focusing on raw material
03:18 and primary commodities.
03:20 To actually have a more inclusive future for the youth
03:24 and for the continent, we need to make sure
03:27 that this is matched by moving into higher value chain,
03:33 producing rather than just exporting raw material,
03:37 building on that raw material.
03:39 And we need to actually lead the way and be forward looking.
03:46 And by that, for example, we have huge assets.
03:51 We've talked already about the issue
03:53 that we will be having the largest working age
03:59 population across all continents very soon.
04:03 And that's a huge asset.
04:05 But we also have a huge solar potential.
04:10 For example, 60% of the world potential for solar
04:14 comes from the continent.
04:16 We have huge reserves of green minerals
04:19 that we can actually use that to build value chain.
04:22 And I loved, actually, one of the things that
04:24 was said earlier today about just moving
04:29 from being consumers of technologies and products
04:35 to actually being producers and co-creators.
04:39 And that's really the tipping point
04:42 by which we can shift the future and utilize
04:46 all this increasing urbanization.
04:48 Because urbanization is usually associated
04:51 with moving to manufacturing or more higher value added.
04:56 However, in the continent, we have not seen that.
04:59 We've seen the move from 30% of the population
05:03 being in urban areas in 1990 to now almost 50%.
05:08 But we have not seen that translate
05:10 into higher value added.
05:11 And this is really where we have to focus on to have
05:14 a better future going forward.
05:18 Thank you.
05:18 Kennedy, I thought you were--
05:19 Yeah, thank you for that.
05:20 I just want to connect climate change and the urbanization.
05:25 So quick story.
05:27 I grew up in Kibera slum, the largest slum in Africa.
05:31 My parents were climate refugee.
05:34 There was no rain.
05:34 It used to be.
05:35 They don't understand why.
05:36 They moved to the city, Nairobi.
05:38 No place to go.
05:39 They ended up in the slums.
05:42 That was my life.
05:44 And I'm really angry that we still talk about these issues.
05:50 Because we know the solution.
05:52 Honestly, leadership, we need governments,
05:55 leaders that are really selfless.
05:57 And I love my continent.
05:59 And today, I'm happy I'm talking to many Africans in the room.
06:02 Our issue is leadership.
06:03 Look at Rwanda.
06:05 You see, for example, in my community, it's amazing.
06:08 The youth already, they are doing
06:11 exams for the European and American students.
06:15 That's talent.
06:16 I'm sorry, don't arrest me.
06:17 But that's talent.
06:19 How can the government--
06:20 how can we get more opportunities?
06:22 Another thing that would be neglected, informal sector.
06:27 You go to Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, you
06:31 will see these innovative ideas.
06:33 Why can't we invest in that?
06:35 Let me tell you something.
06:37 If we don't really work on this, we
06:39 are going to see a lot of chaos.
06:41 The wealth that is being created will be destroyed.
06:44 I already see something in South Africa.
06:46 I see the youth are angry.
06:48 The youth want to be involved.
06:50 So right now, it's good for us really to listen to them.
06:54 Why do you have to send our coffee to Europe?
06:57 Why can't we use our raw materials and get product
07:00 and create jobs?
07:01 Thank you.
07:02 [APPLAUSE]
07:06 - Thank you.
07:07 Thank you.
07:09 So Hanan, you talked about how urbanization kind of shows up
07:14 differently on the continent.
07:16 So I want to talk about rural versus urban.
07:19 How important is the localization of aid
07:22 and development in rural areas?
07:25 And what can be done to ensure that global initiatives are
07:29 effectively tailored to meet the needs of African cities
07:32 and communities?
07:33 And Kennedy, I'd love to start with you.
07:36 - Thank you.
07:36 So I also believe in localization.
07:38 And I think most of the time--
07:41 let's be honest.
07:42 How did aid started?
07:43 So that's a challenging thing.
07:47 So I feel like development sectors don't want to--
07:50 our partner don't want to listen to the problem of the people
07:54 on the ground.
07:54 You know what I mean?
07:55 Because if you really go to the villages,
07:56 if you go to the cities, you see these young people,
08:00 local leaders have innovative ideas.
08:03 But where is the money coming from?
08:05 You have to write proposals.
08:06 You have to read the metrics, not on our own terms,
08:09 but on the Western term.
08:11 So that's the problem.
08:12 So I think that for us to fight this
08:14 is that we have to start changing the systems of how
08:16 things happen.
08:17 You cannot really solve a problem
08:20 if you don't work with the people who are in that issue.
08:24 So the first thing is that if we all
08:26 agree that solution is Africans, and Africans are the solution,
08:33 what I need is opportunity and resources, right?
08:35 I think that's the same way with working localization
08:37 in local communities.
08:39 Thank you.
08:41 Yeah.
08:41 [APPLAUSE]
08:44 So Hanan, how can we break through the risk aversion
08:48 to Kennedy's point associated with investing in Africa?
08:53 And why are meaningful partnerships so important?
08:56 I think there are a number of issues in terms of the investment
09:02 obstacles.
09:02 Some of them have to do with perceptions.
09:05 For example, if you look at surveys that
09:08 look into investor perceptions, especially foreign investors
09:13 that are contemplating, meaning prospective investors,
09:17 versus those that are in the continent,
09:19 you'll see a diversion in this.
09:21 One is more worried about--
09:24 those that are already in the continent
09:26 are more worried about, for example,
09:30 stability of energy supply, or infrastructure, or skills.
09:35 Whereas prospective ones, the key concern
09:39 is always political risk, and socioeconomic risk,
09:44 and instability.
09:45 So we have to bridge that gap between existing investors
09:49 and prospective ones.
09:50 That's one area.
09:51 But of course, a very important other issue
09:55 is the availability of affordable finance.
09:59 And this is a key issue that we need to tackle.
10:04 And we've been working extensively
10:05 on these issues at the United Nations Economic
10:08 Commission for Africa.
10:09 Part of what is needed is availability
10:12 of things like blended finance, guarantees,
10:15 credit enhancements, so it can lower
10:17 the cost of finance for the private sector,
10:21 to be able to crowd in the private sector.
10:23 We can no longer look forward, expecting
10:26 that the state can do this humongous task with the level
10:31 of growth that would be required,
10:33 as well as the population growth.
10:36 So we need to enable the private sector
10:39 by availing both the policies, meaning the policy
10:46 certainty and stability, as well as issues of finance,
10:55 availing finance.
10:57 And that would be key.
10:58 And I think we need to also learn
11:00 to sell better opportunities on the continent,
11:03 because this is a continent that will have a huge population
11:10 growth, that will have one of the largest workforce.
11:16 And it has also a lot of natural assets.
11:19 So we need to sell the opportunities
11:22 of what the continent has, but also work very closely,
11:27 and if I may say, openly with investors
11:30 to determine what is needed.
11:32 And there are a number of examples,
11:34 including African countries that have done this.
11:36 Engage with them on what is it, what are the obstacles,
11:40 what are the policy changes.
11:41 And when you do the policy changes,
11:43 how is it affecting them, and how are you calibrating?
11:46 I think we need more of these kind of investor platforms
11:53 that engage with the government and that kind of gives feedback
11:58 to help the way forward.
12:01 What I'm hearing from all of you is that engagement
12:04 and engaging different stakeholders,
12:05 engaging with one another, is a key part of the solution.
12:09 So Bogolo, you've been an advocate
12:10 for accelerating digitization and innovation in Africa.
12:15 How can these technologies play a role
12:18 in ensuring better investments and job opportunities
12:20 for the next gen?
12:23 If I may hijack your question a little bit.
12:26 Of course.
12:27 I was just reflecting on what Kennedy and Hanan were saying.
12:31 I feel like one of our main challenges in localization
12:36 is trying to do things as they are done in Europe or the US
12:41 and say that we are serving local communities.
12:44 And this is why in the end, the aid that
12:47 comes with projects that are tailored based on what happens
12:51 in Europe end up failing and do not achieve the objectives.
12:55 And what we're seeing now with the increased conversation
12:59 of development and climate change in particular
13:03 is the reflection in indigenous knowledge,
13:07 in indigenous practices, in indigenous goods and services.
13:12 And with that increased interest in that space,
13:16 I think if we truly want to serve local communities,
13:19 we need to invest more in technology,
13:24 infuse it with indigenous knowledge,
13:26 deal with R&D around indigenous knowledge,
13:30 and really ensure that these communities are
13:32 able to progress.
13:33 One of the main failures of modern economics
13:36 is suggesting that there is no place for indigenous knowledge
13:40 in the modern economic theories.
13:44 And as a result, we were anticipating,
13:47 or the theories had said, we would
13:49 see this accelerated inclusion of people
13:53 from the informal sector into the formal sector.
13:55 But we haven't seen that happening in Africa.
13:58 We haven't seen it happening in local communities.
14:01 Because the skills, the resources
14:04 that modern day economics is based on is not in the continent.
14:09 And if we reroute the way we think about economics
14:12 and what a product is to capture and encapsulate
14:16 indigenous knowledge, we will be able to start bringing
14:20 in the formerly and previously excluded communities
14:23 into the economic space, and therefore
14:26 generate more opportunities.
14:28 And then it brings us into the conversation
14:30 of what are investments.
14:31 A lot of times, we talk about investments
14:34 from an FDI perspective.
14:36 And we even forget to talk about domestic resource mobilization.
14:41 We have a lot of billionaires in the continent.
14:43 What are we doing about the capital and the finance
14:47 that is raised through the pension funds in the continent?
14:50 A lot of our pension funds go to Australia.
14:52 They go to BlackRock and many others.
14:54 Once-- I will tell you, give you a quick example, Shere.
14:58 We went to Australia looking for investors
15:01 when I was still serving as Minister of Investment.
15:03 We got there, and the investors there said,
15:06 but this is your money.
15:08 This is your pension money that you
15:10 are asking to send back to you.
15:12 We've used it to build our roads.
15:14 But the way we even think about investing in our own economies
15:19 is it is too risky.
15:21 If we cannot take a chance in investing in our own economies
15:25 through our domestic resource mobilization,
15:28 what makes us think that FDI would
15:31 blow at big lumps and sums that we truly
15:34 need to have real change and real monumental change?
15:38 So I think that these two pieces that we should address--
15:42 first, to see the real economic paradigm shift
15:46 that Hanan was speaking to.
15:48 Otherwise, if we don't deal with these internal issues
15:51 and the way we think about where we come from,
15:53 what we truly know, then we will not truly achieve
15:57 the Africa rising moniker.
15:59 [APPLAUSE]
16:01 Kate, my sister there, has to go to New York.
16:04 How many bolognaise do we have in Nigeria, in South Africa?
16:08 It's time Africans support themselves.
16:10 [APPLAUSE]
16:13 But let's be clear a little bit, Shade.
16:17 It's time that we support ourselves.
16:19 But we do need partnerships.
16:20 So bring the money.
16:22 We're not saying we don't want American money.
16:24 No, no, no.
16:24 Money with no condition.
16:27 No condition.
16:29 We do want--
16:30 No condition.
16:31 You heard it here first.
16:32 No, this is great.
16:38 So I think one of the things that we haven't spoken about
16:42 specifically, which we're kind of circling around, is poverty.
16:49 High poverty rate is still a major concern
16:52 in African communities.
16:53 So Kennedy, given your background,
16:57 can you share your personal journey and insights
17:00 into what it looks like to create growth
17:04 in impoverished communities?
17:07 Wow.
17:08 So for me, that's my story.
17:11 So growing up in this large informal settlement,
17:14 knowing that you have no hope, you feel invisible.
17:20 And that's what really good for you is you don't care.
17:23 When you don't care, you want to join the crime.
17:25 You can be a terrorist, right?
17:27 Because you don't see value of life.
17:29 And I think for us to fight poverty,
17:33 the biggest thing we have to do is
17:34 to understand the local context.
17:37 I've seen some housing projects happening in my community.
17:39 I was a young boy.
17:40 They didn't understand our social context.
17:42 They were just coming, building this apartment that
17:44 was not really working for us.
17:46 So I think the first thing is to listen to the community
17:49 and find out how do they want to come out of that poverty.
17:52 Because most of the time, they have the answers.
17:54 But there's no one to listen to them.
17:56 If I may add actually to this, I've
18:02 lived before work on private sector diagnostics.
18:06 And that entailed discussions and consultations
18:10 with various private sector, domestic and international.
18:13 And in some countries, countries would give huge incentives,
18:19 be it land, tax breaks, and others,
18:22 for investors to come and invest in the impoverished areas.
18:27 But nobody comes.
18:29 And then when you go and talk to the private sector,
18:31 why haven't you invested there?
18:34 Said, you can take all this.
18:36 Just give us the road to the closest port.
18:41 And we'll do it.
18:42 So you will need to really engage
18:44 to understand what is holding it back, rather than just giving
18:49 incentives that may not meet what
18:52 are the needs of the private sector
18:53 to create jobs in these areas.
18:55 I think one area is providing access to education,
19:08 access to services that are trade facilitating,
19:13 that are industry facilitating, that are also facilitating
19:19 access to jobs, amongst others.
19:22 And I was just from Kennedy's example.
19:26 I also come from a very poor village.
19:30 And it is because of the free education that was provided
19:36 that I was able to build myself.
19:38 And many others will tell the same story,
19:41 that having free education has helped them unlock
19:44 different opportunities.
19:47 But over and above having access to education,
19:52 it's also about having a functional government system.
19:56 And Kennedy spoke to this earlier.
20:00 We need leaders that are focusing
20:03 on the improvement of society and communities,
20:07 and that are actually really prepared to put money
20:13 behind ambitions.
20:14 What we currently have is we talk about these ambitions.
20:18 We want to reduce poverty, reduce inequality.
20:21 But when it comes to it, backing up those ambitions
20:24 with real investment, taking a chance on digital innovations
20:30 by young people, we tend to shy away from that.
20:34 So we need to actively back those.
20:37 The AFCFTA is up and running.
20:40 It's supposed to be under implementation.
20:42 Many heads of state have stood up and said,
20:45 we are backing the AFCFTA.
20:47 But when it comes to actually tariff reductions,
20:51 it is taking forever to really see that progress.
20:54 So the main thing I would say across the board of policy
20:58 and across the private sector is do back up your ambitions
21:02 with finance.
21:04 Back up your ambition with implementation.
21:06 And back them up really seriously
21:08 with opening up of markets.
21:11 And if we do not back up ambitions with real action,
21:14 we will not see the growth and the reduction of poverty
21:17 that we want.
21:18 Well, I wish that we could sit here all day,
21:23 because I am so enjoying listening to all of you.
21:27 But we can't.
21:30 But if I could just quick take away paradigm shifts
21:34 from Hanan, engage with the youth,
21:37 talk to them from Kennedy, and lean on indigenous knowledge
21:41 from Bogol.
21:42 Thank you all for your time.
21:43 Thank you.
21:44 [APPLAUSE]