It will be a cold week across the UK with frosts for many. Rain will clear Monday evening to leave a settled few days across the UK with some snow showers in the northeast. Later in the week there is significant uncertainty in the forecast but there is the potential for some snow across southern hills for a time whilst sleet and snow showers continue across northern areas.
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00:00 Hello, it'll certainly be a colder week this week. There's also some snow potential later
00:06 on in the week, but exactly how much snow will fall and where exactly we're expecting
00:11 it is still quite uncertain. More on that a little bit later, but for now I'll talk
00:16 about Tuesday and Wednesday where things are a little bit more simple. So we've got low
00:21 pressure through Monday evening, clearing off the south east, taking with it much of
00:24 the rain many of us will have seen through Monday. That leaves us in a fairly slack set-up.
00:29 You can see not too many ice bars across the country, so a bit more of a settled interlude
00:34 to come for the next couple of days. But it will be feeling cold. You can see the blue
00:40 colours on the map, that's colder air. The air is actually stemming from northern Scandinavia.
00:45 You can see if you follow the arrows down to the UK, the origin of this air mass. So
00:49 it will be feeling really chilly over the next few days, particularly through the morning.
00:53 So let's rewind, take us back to Tuesday and take a closer look at the details. We've got
00:57 a little area of low pressure that will bring some showers to eastern coasts throughout
01:01 the day. Those showers will fall as snow over the hills of Scotland on Tuesday morning and
01:06 then snow is more likely to lower levels across these north eastern areas by the evening.
01:13 But the snow will be fairly limited with not too many accumulations expected. You can see
01:17 though elsewhere it's fairly fine and dry, quite a lot of clear and dry weather around,
01:22 so it will be a nice crisp sunny day for many on Tuesday. Having said that though, it will
01:27 feel cold, temperatures really struggling, only reaching 5 or 6 degrees in many areas
01:32 and across parts of Scotland will keep a frost through much of the day. Then it will be a
01:37 very frosty start to Tuesday, more widely with clearer spells overnight to allow a crisp
01:42 start to the day and the frost will stay across much of south eastern Scotland and parts of
01:49 north western England as well and temperatures generally struggling once again. So a colder
01:53 feel yet again on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. There will be a bit more cloud around as well,
02:00 showers of snow still persisting across northern areas of Scotland and we could see them now
02:04 and again across eastern areas of England as well as south eastern Scotland too. In
02:09 the south and west you can see there's a bit more cloud around and some showers and that's
02:13 because we're a little bit closer to this area of rain. Now this area of rain is an
02:17 area of low pressure and that is where the uncertainty starts to creep in through Thursday
02:22 and Friday. So you can see we've got one area of low pressure to start on Wednesday but
02:27 as I go through this sequence you can see this low pressure swings round to the south
02:31 of the UK and bumps up into the south east through Thursday and Friday before it then
02:37 is expected to clear away for the weekend. Now if I just rewind that sequence and we
02:43 can take another look but this time with the air masses on. So you can see we've got that
02:48 colder air centred to the north, that's the cold air we'll see through Tuesday and Wednesday.
02:53 So we're starting in quite a chilly place across the UK and this low pressure is going
02:57 to be pulling up this milder, moister air from the south and west. And it's how this
03:03 moister air comes up from the south and west and bumps into this colder air and that could
03:07 potentially bring some snow to southern areas, most likely expected over hills if at all.
03:15 Northern areas though are in this more easterly, northeasterly flow, so wind direction, so
03:20 the wind's coming off the North Sea and that can continue to develop those showers of sleet
03:25 and snow for northern areas. Now that seems fairly straightforward but the complication
03:32 comes when we take a look at other models. So in weather forecasting we don't just look
03:37 at one model, we look at multiple models. So this is the Met Office model and you can
03:41 see we've got low pressure symbols, two low pressure centres to the south of the UK by
03:46 Friday morning. Let's take a closer look at another model. So you can have a look here
03:51 at the GFS model, so another important model we do look at when we're thinking about the
03:55 forecast for the week ahead. And you can see there is a low pressure centre to the south
04:00 of the UK. This time the low pressure is deeper and also there's only one low pressure. It's
04:07 also centred a little bit further north and in this scenario we get more of that moist
04:12 air bumping into the cold air and it means that it's more likely, we would be more likely
04:17 to see some snow in southern areas. However this scenario is the lesser likely scenario.
04:24 Instead we could look at another model, the ECMWF model, where you can see there's actually
04:30 no low pressure centre here at all. In fact this is the remnants of the low pressure right
04:36 to the far south east and all of the UK is in this north north easterly flow. So we could
04:41 see some showers in this scenario again along eastern coast but in the south it wouldn't
04:46 be cold enough to see any showers as we don't have any mountains high enough for any of
04:51 this to fall as snow. So this is one potential scenario and you can see that the final one
04:57 is the Met Office model as well which I showed earlier. This is it in the same format. You
05:02 can see these two low pressure symbols just to remind you. So this would bring an area
05:08 of rain to the south that could just bump into some colder air on the north. So you
05:12 can see there's still some significant differences between the different model output and therefore
05:17 it's still very uncertain as to exactly what will happen on Thursday and Friday, particularly
05:23 in the south. But in all scenarios we've got this easterly flow across northern areas so
05:27 we're likely to continue to see some snow showers falling across the high ground of
05:31 northern England as well as Scotland. So let's take a look at what we can say about Thursday
05:38 and Friday for many. So it's going to be cold and frosty so still a continued risk of frost
05:44 through Thursday morning and Friday morning as well as into the weekend too. And the risk
05:48 of snow showers and sleet showers across northern areas is going to continue. And this is where
05:54 the uncertainty is, how likely any snow is in the south. It is certainly possible but
06:00 it is very unlikely to be to lower levels at this stage. However, the forecast can change
06:06 throughout the week and so it's important that you keep up to date with the details
06:10 with this one. So subscribe to our YouTube channel. I'll see you later.