As the Las Vegas Raiders NFL Playoff hopes continue to percolate, we look at five key players for the possible upset win against the Kansas City Chiefs.
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00:00 Hi everybody and Merry Christmas.
00:04 This is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's FAN Nation Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:09 It is terrific to have you with me today.
00:12 We are one week from Christmas, one week from the Raiders showdown with the Kansas City
00:18 Chiefs in Kansas City on national TV.
00:21 And there's a lot going on.
00:22 Now there's no, you know, media availability today with the Raiders, but we're going to
00:29 begin to dig in on the Raiders Chiefs coming up literally in one week.
00:35 We've got a lot to discuss.
00:37 I want to get into today with five players, five key players in beating Kansas City.
00:48 Now as you all know, at the beginning of the year back in May, I think it was May 11th,
00:54 but somewhere in that first part of May when the schedule was released, I made my initial
01:01 predictions, which is what I always do.
01:06 Came out on May 11th.
01:07 I think I do my predictions the next day, May 12th.
01:10 And then I also do it after training camp.
01:13 That gives me time to watch OTAs, mini camp.
01:17 You've seen how the draft came about, free agents.
01:22 And then you've seen how everything kind of starts to gel in mini camps, OTAs, and then
01:26 training camp.
01:28 And then I give you my next evaluation of what I think of a team.
01:31 There are several things that go into, you know, this, when I pick a game, there are
01:37 10 qualities that I look at.
01:40 But when I put a schedule together, there's far more than that.
01:43 And so back on May 12th, I predicted this team would go nine and eight.
01:49 And then I go through all the games and tell you what I think they win, what I think they
01:52 lose.
01:54 I do the same after training camp.
01:57 I picked nine and eight there, although I changed a couple of the games just based on
02:01 matchups and all of that kind of stuff.
02:04 And now we sit here today and the Raiders are six and eight.
02:10 They have obviously at this point, I said they would be seven and seven.
02:14 So we're one game behind my schedule prediction, which is fine.
02:19 If they went out, they get to nine and eight, which is what I predicted anyways.
02:25 But I, because of how the Raiders are playing right now, and frankly, the way the Chiefs
02:34 are playing, this game to me has the potential to be significantly closer than I had thought.
02:47 I didn't expect a blowout, but significantly closer.
02:52 And I would not be shocked if the Raiders went on the road and got an upset.
02:59 Now I understand if you're a fan, that irritates you a little bit.
03:04 You're like, what do you mean an upset?
03:05 This is the Chiefs Raiders.
03:07 I get it.
03:08 I don't have that luxury.
03:10 My job is to be analytical.
03:13 And so a win next Monday in Arrowhead would be an upset.
03:21 It would be.
03:22 They're the world champions and it would be an upset.
03:26 I think that's clear to most people.
03:28 I understand if a fan doesn't feel that way and I respect that.
03:32 But I'm going to go over five players today that, and what I'm looking for, because I
03:41 think they are very key to this game.
03:45 Now, I'm not going to put a Max Crosby, and I'm going to tell you why I don't put a Max
03:49 Crosby, because you know what you get from Max every game.
03:53 He doesn't have to do anything extra.
03:55 You know what you get.
03:57 Robert Spillane, same way.
04:00 I'm not going to talk about Colton because we don't know if he's going to be healthy.
04:05 Is there a chance?
04:10 But until we know, I'm not putting him in that conversation.
04:13 So we're going to talk about five key players.
04:17 If the Raiders go up to Arrowhead to get the upset, five key players we're going to be
04:22 talking about Monday evening.
04:27 And I hope you enjoy this.
04:28 I think it's going to be really good.
04:29 Before I dig into these five, a couple of things I want to do.
04:32 First of all, I already told you Merry Christmas.
04:34 I just want to let you know I appreciate you.
04:37 We are growing exponentially.
04:39 Subscribers, followers, people sharing everything.
04:43 We offer you massive amounts of content and it's free.
04:47 And we have a great team of writers and I'm very excited that I'm going to have Aiden
04:53 Champion with me in Kansas City.
04:56 But we got a great group of writers and people that are our video team and people that do
05:02 a lot of things for us.
05:03 And we appreciate this team and we're able to do it because you guys consume it.
05:08 And so I hope you really hear from me telling you thank you.
05:12 If you want to follow me on Twitter, you can @HondoCarpenter, H-O-N-D-O C-A-R-P-E-N-T-E-R
05:18 or on Instagram, @HondoSr.
05:29 So these five players are ones that we know can do it.
05:36 We know that.
05:37 And again, this is another reason why I think the Raiders continue to inch closer to this
05:44 upset.
05:47 Some of the players on this list, you, beginning of the year, you thought, yeah, they can get
05:52 there.
05:54 Or you hoped they could, but now they're giving you those flashes.
05:58 And I'm going to explain each one and I think you'll understand my reasoning as we move
06:04 forward.
06:05 But the one that has got to, if the Raiders get an upset in Kansas City, and I think there's
06:15 a good chance of it, not predicting it, I'm just saying, I think there's a good chance
06:19 that they could go up there and get that win, is going to be Michael Maher, the rookie.
06:26 We have seen Maher do some really impressive things.
06:32 Now, you all know that I am very emphatic.
06:36 I don't have huge expectations of rookies.
06:41 I just don't.
06:43 The National Football League is just too big of an adjustment, just too big.
06:48 That I think a lot of players get thrown away early because they struggle with the adjustment.
06:56 Michael Maher has shown some incredible potential.
07:02 It's very clear why they had a first-round grade on him and has done a terrific job.
07:09 But there are times when you'll see him and then times of disappearance.
07:14 Now that's normal with a rookie.
07:17 That's not a charge on his character.
07:19 It's not a charge on his work ethic.
07:21 It's normal of a rookie.
07:24 But he is their guy, and to go up there and to beat Kansas City, it is all hands on deck.
07:35 And so, if he goes up there and it isn't a performance that's significant, it doesn't
07:45 mean he's a failure at all.
07:47 I'm just saying, for them to go get that upset, they really need him.
07:51 He has vastly improved his blocking.
07:55 Vastly improved.
07:57 So I'm not even saying he needs 104 yards, three touchdowns, whatever.
08:03 But they have to have his blocking, his downfield blocking, which opens some significant windows.
08:11 You know what?
08:12 Three catches, five catches, great.
08:16 But they have got to be able to get him involved, and he's got to take that next step.
08:22 Now we're at the last part, the last three games of a rookie season.
08:28 And by now, there's so much experience.
08:31 He's played 14 games now, which is more than you play in college.
08:35 So really, he's kind of an early sophomore right now.
08:40 And so, this is where you look for that game that when it's done, you can say, "Wow, he
08:44 impact on this play, look at his block.
08:47 He impacted on this play.
08:49 Look at what he did here with a block.
08:50 Look at what he did in this window.
08:53 Look at that catch.
08:55 Michael Merr is going to be a big piece of this muzzle if they get the upset."
09:00 He's a tremendous player.
09:03 Absolutely tremendous player.
09:05 He has superstar written all over him.
09:09 He is extremely talented, extremely gifted.
09:16 He's got some skill sets that are not normal.
09:18 You know, a lot of times you get tight ends who are great blockers, or tight ends who
09:23 are good receivers.
09:24 It is rare to get a tight end that's both.
09:28 He is.
09:29 He's going to be special.
09:32 He's going to be that.
09:33 Not there yet, but he's a rook.
09:37 I will tell you, like a Malcolm Coons, when he gets to the end of year three, I'll make
09:43 this prediction right now.
09:45 Now, I obviously don't know the coaching situation in the future, so I reserve the right to come
09:51 back and change it.
09:53 But I would say right now, if they stick on this course with AP and everything that they're
09:57 doing, by the end of year three, he's going to be in discussion as a potential pro bowler.
10:05 That's how good he is.
10:07 He has that potential to be an elite player.
10:11 And for them to go get the upset, they're going to need that from him.
10:16 It's a lot to ask of a rook.
10:19 A lot to ask to go up there.
10:21 If you've never been to Arrowhead, it is nuts.
10:26 Crazy.
10:29 And I know that nobody likes it when you give compliments to rivals, but I'm not my rival.
10:35 It's just the reality.
10:36 It is an amazing environment.
10:39 It is loud, extremely loud, in my opinion, probably one of the loudest places in the
10:45 National Football League.
10:47 They love their chiefs.
10:50 And it is a place that certainly I'm not trying to make it sound like you can't go there.
10:55 Of course you can.
10:57 But it's just a unique environment.
10:59 And when you're a rookie in that environment, the first time, maybe even the second, it
11:03 just is a little bit of adjustment.
11:05 Now one advantage that Michael Maher has that maybe a Malcolm Koonce didn't when he was
11:11 in his rookie or sophomore campaign is he played at Notre Dame.
11:15 He knows what crazy environments are like.
11:18 Notre Dame is one.
11:20 But he's gone on the road and played a lot of teams and crazy environments and really
11:24 good environments.
11:26 So I don't think the environment impacts a Michael Maher as much as maybe another rookie.
11:33 So again, Michael Maher is going to be a super key part.
11:40 And I'm reiterating, not saying seven, 10 catches, 104 yards, three touches, I'm not
11:46 talking about that.
11:48 I think the impact would be felt in receiving, but blocking also.
11:53 That's got to be able to have his best game of his rookie campaign up at Arrowhead.
12:01 Next I want to talk about Trayvon Marid safety.
12:05 Now the way we talk about matchups and the way Kansas City likes to attack, you are going
12:15 to see tremendous safety involvement.
12:20 It requires your safeties are your literally safety net.
12:25 That's why I call them safeties.
12:28 But in this game, the way that Patrick Mahomes distributes the football all over the field,
12:36 the way that his running style allows him.
12:38 Now one thing Patrick Mahomes does better than anyone I've ever seen.
12:43 I've never seen a quarterback do one thing in particular that Patrick Mahomes does.
12:49 The two things that he does that I've never seen from anyone else.
12:53 It's what makes him a unicorn.
12:56 His most running quarterbacks take off too quick.
12:59 Saw that with Josh Dobbs.
13:01 You've seen it with other guys.
13:02 I think Joe Burrell runs too much.
13:09 And you may remember, well, I'll get into that later, but I think Joe Burrell runs too
13:14 much.
13:15 I think that's what's keeping Joe Burrell.
13:17 I think Joe Burrell's a great quarterback, but I think what's keeping him from going
13:22 into that Patrick Mahomes discussion is he runs too quick.
13:27 Patrick Mahomes is a great runner, not a good one.
13:32 He's great, but he will stay in that pocket until the very last second and take off.
13:41 That requires your safeties to be extremely disciplined.
13:47 The other thing he does, he has a baseball background.
13:50 His dad was a baseball player.
13:51 He was a baseball player.
13:54 And so he'll throw a football like a baseball, just toss it like a shortstop to a second
14:00 baseman on a double play.
14:02 He'll flick the ball and he's got arm strength.
14:06 And so again, when it looks like, all right, Max Crosby's going to get them, you have to
14:13 stay disciplined and not only route disciplined if you're covering a route, but I discipline
14:21 and not, okay, we got them.
14:25 You play till the echo of the whistle.
14:29 Now I discipline is very difficult with young players.
14:33 Let's go back to Ja'Kory and Bennett.
14:35 If you remember when he got drafted, I told you he had speed to kill, but he was very
14:40 aggressive.
14:42 And one of the things that I told you about Ja'Kory and Bennett is that he likes to, he's
14:47 not one of these corners that likes to not be physical.
14:55 So if he sees a quarterback take off running, like he's in trouble, he'll leave his guy
15:00 and come up and smack him like a safety or a linebacker.
15:04 And I said it the night of the draft.
15:06 The problem with that is that Patrick Mahomes can stop on a dime and give you nine cents
15:14 change.
15:16 And the moment you let off your receiver, he didn't just tosses it over your head.
15:20 Okay.
15:21 Now we know that that was Ja'Kory, but that's I discipline.
15:27 I can't let what I see change what I'm supposed to do.
15:34 My eyes are telling me something and I'm watching, but I'm staying disciplined to my task.
15:40 Trayvon Moore has to.
15:42 Now y'all know I really like Trayvon.
15:45 I think he's a really good player and I think he's had a best year of his career, but you're
15:55 going against what the man many believe is the best coach currently in the NFL.
15:59 And I think that that's a very germane argument and you're going to bench against the best
16:05 quarterback.
16:07 Now they do not have the best wide receivers and the more disciplined you stay, that's
16:17 going to force Patrick to have to do more.
16:21 And that's where the discipline of Trayvon, you know, he's older now, he's been around
16:25 a little bit and you got to hope for him to just be the guy.
16:31 This is year three.
16:32 Remember we talked about with Malcolm, this is year three for him now.
16:36 He's got to take that next step.
16:39 And I think there's a very good chance he's going to.
16:43 All of these guys on this list, there's not one, let me double check.
16:48 Yeah, there's not one of them on this list that I doubt.
16:52 There are two rookies, but not one of them on this list that I doubt, that I think can't
16:57 do what I'm calling for today.
17:01 But as it gets closer, that discipline you have seen this year in the Trickma Holmes,
17:12 be more frustrated, be more uncalculated, which is not his nature.
17:19 And I believe a lot of that has to do with the frustration with his receivers.
17:23 So the more you can stay with your guy and force them, I think it's just makes it better
17:31 for the Raiders.
17:32 Now, let's go to the next guy.
17:34 This is somebody that everybody knows.
17:37 This is somebody with a proven track record.
17:42 But since the regime change, we've seen more from.
17:48 And I think we need to see more from them than we've seen all season.
17:52 Hunter Renfro.
17:53 Going to have to get route separation.
17:56 It's going to have to.
17:58 Going to have to get in there, dig, get off, be open, wham, quick.
18:02 This is a game that Hunter is vital.
18:05 You say, well, isn't Devante?
18:09 Uh-huh.
18:10 But if you watch Kansas City, they are superior, superiorly well coached.
18:18 And they're going to blitz and bring pressure.
18:21 And when they do, I expect them to continue to have Devante blanketed coverage, which
18:28 means having multiple guys there.
18:31 So that's where a Hunter Renfro, you know, cross the middle and in a flat.
18:38 This is where he's going to be a quick outlet to Aiden.
18:42 This is going to be, in my opinion, this has to be the biggest game of Hunter's year.
18:49 And he's going to have to get in there and get separation.
18:51 He's going to have to bounce off the ball, off the line of scrimmage and go.
18:58 We all know he can do it.
18:59 I mean, I don't think there's anybody who would listen to this podcast and say, I don't
19:03 know if he can do it.
19:04 Come on.
19:05 We all know he can.
19:07 But he's going to be vital.
19:10 Literally a week from today, if I'm writing about a Raider win, the title of my article,
19:18 I'll tell you right now, Raiders pierce the Chief.
19:25 If they're going to pierce him, it's going to be Hunter Renfro is going to be the tip
19:29 of the spear.
19:31 He is a guy that, you know, he's got to be sure handed, no fumbles, no mistakes.
19:36 He can't have those in this game.
19:38 Can't.
19:39 Now today I'm talking about players.
19:42 Later in the week, I'm going to talk about circumstances for the Raiders to win.
19:48 Hunter can't afford, he's paid too much money.
19:53 He's had too much success.
19:54 You know, you can afford a mistake from a Michael Merrick, Trayvon Merrick, other guys
20:02 on this list.
20:05 You cannot from a Hunter Renfro.
20:08 He just can't.
20:09 And you say, well, people can't play mistake free football.
20:12 I agree.
20:13 But you can limit those mistakes.
20:14 You can't have turnovers.
20:15 You can't have drop passes for first downs.
20:18 He's going to have to play his best game.
20:22 Every one of us knows that Hunter Renfro can do that.
20:29 Now he's got to.
20:30 This is going to be a monster game if the Raiders win for Hunter Renfro.
20:37 Now next one I want to talk about is Amik Robertson.
20:41 Now you may say, but Hondo, you know, what about X, Y, and Z?
20:49 He would talk about route discipline.
20:52 Every one of you who's watched this podcast for any amount of time know the respect that
20:59 I have for Amik, for his talent, for his character.
21:05 Just a wonderful kid.
21:07 Absolutely wonderful kid.
21:10 If you knew Amik, you would instantly like him.
21:12 One of the most popular players on this team as far as people just liking him, caring about
21:17 him.
21:18 Great person.
21:21 But you will see Amik sometimes get beat.
21:24 Now to his credit, he'll come back and make a big play.
21:27 It's what he does.
21:28 He'll give something up.
21:30 People get mad at him, then bam, he gets an interception.
21:33 This is a game now.
21:35 He's been around long enough.
21:37 If you're going to remember that route discipline, remember understanding.
21:42 So when he's in there and he's in that role, he's got to be disciplined because these are
21:51 not the best receivers in the world.
21:54 It isn't like you're asking Amik Robertson to go out there and defend Tyreek Hill one
22:00 on one.
22:01 Okay, there's nobody.
22:02 I don't know if, I mean, there's a lot of good corners in this league.
22:08 I don't know a corner in this league who can defend Tyreek Hill one on one.
22:12 But Tyreek Hill ain't a chief.
22:17 There's not one receiver that Amik will go against and he's not going to be out there
22:23 60 reps.
22:26 But when he is, because they're going to do some multiple sets and he's going to be on
22:32 that field, he's got to be disciplined.
22:35 Has to be.
22:37 Has to be.
22:38 And I'll tell you, even bigger than an interception from Amik is that he can't give up that play
22:44 because I made a wrong read or I took a risk or I got beat a little bit with deception
22:50 of the quarterback.
22:51 No, he's going to have to stay disciplined.
22:54 If you come back in the stat line, no interceptions, no tackles, but there were five targets his
23:04 way and he was with his guy and defended it as best could be.
23:10 Because sometimes you can defend it as perfectly as possible and the guy still catches the
23:15 ball.
23:16 But he defended all five of them perfectly.
23:18 He was disciplined.
23:19 That's a good sign the Raiders won this football game.
23:23 And I think Amik is that guy.
23:26 There's nobody, you might, I don't have any doubt that Amik can do it.
23:31 I have no doubts in the young man, but he's old enough now he has to.
23:35 He has to.
23:36 Then I'm going to end with one other guy and this one is not going to shock you, but I
23:48 want to explain why he's on this list and it's a rookie.
23:52 It's Aiden O'Connell.
23:56 He's got a ton of confidence now and AP made it very clear to him, those four days after
24:08 the Minnesota game, you got to go down the field, you got to attack.
24:13 And he did and he was rewarded and his confidence is strong.
24:18 Let's not pretend that the Chargers defense is the Chiefs, but he already went against
24:33 the Chargers once and he just has to be himself.
24:41 Aiden O'Connell doesn't have to go beat Patrick Mahomes because he's not.
24:46 He's not.
24:47 Do I like a quarterback with a little bit of mobility?
24:50 Yes.
24:51 I've been very open about that.
24:53 It's not a slam on Aiden, but if you are attacking and being wise with the football, you don't
25:02 have to be.
25:05 And he was that way against the Chargers.
25:10 He just has to keep taking the natural progression.
25:14 He's only a rook.
25:16 I mean, he's only the rook.
25:20 They weren't even expecting him to play this year and he has come along very well.
25:27 Remember the last time they played the Chiefs, I mean, he was tremendous.
25:32 He had great, great ratings and performed well.
25:37 Just keep being that guy.
25:40 Just keep being that guy.
25:43 Just keep doing what he does.
25:46 This defense will take care of itself.
25:51 But what happens is, is when your offense isn't scoring a ton, and they did score some
25:58 points the last time, but when you're not scoring a ton, then the defense late in the
26:05 first half, second half, they start to press because they know we can't give up anything.
26:12 This defense needs to know we can give some stuff up because our offense is going to score
26:16 some points.
26:18 That allows the defense to take some risks, do a few things to try to create a turnover.
26:26 And I think that this offense is exponentially better today than it was the last time they
26:34 played the Chiefs.
26:36 In my opinion, it will still be an upset.
26:40 But I think it's a lot more probable today that the Raiders get the upset than I thought
26:48 it was any time during the season.
26:54 I think that Charger win showed us a lot about, all right, caution to the wind.
27:01 Aidan, you got to go.
27:03 You got to go.
27:05 You got your back, go.
27:06 And for a Rook to have that confidence.
27:10 I've shared this before, but our audience is growing so much.
27:13 You may not have heard me say it.
27:14 So let me go a different direction.
27:18 My son, Dexter, is 16 months old, and he is in that learning to walk stage.
27:29 So he used to stand at tables and he would hold on to tables or chairs or legs, but he
27:36 would never let go.
27:39 And now just here in the last couple of days, he'll stand there.
27:45 He was with our granddaughter and he stood there for probably five or six seconds just
27:49 standing there laughing and smiling and didn't realize he was standing on his own.
27:54 He's very, very close now to walking.
27:58 But with each step of progression, he has confidence.
28:01 Okay, I remember the first time he was standing there holding our hands and we let go, he
28:06 instantly sat down and cried.
28:08 He was scared.
28:10 And now he just stands there.
28:12 Why?
28:13 Confidence.
28:14 Now, clearly I'm not saying Aidan O'Connell cried.
28:18 But there's a confidence in evolution.
28:20 Think about your job.
28:23 Were you as good at your job a year after you started as you were the first day?
28:32 Probably not.
28:34 Probably not.
28:35 Now, there always are a unicorn.
28:36 Maybe you're a unicorn.
28:38 But Aidan's got that confidence now.
28:42 And now it's time for him to go there, lead this franchise.
28:46 Lead this franchise.
28:49 And I think if the Chiefs go up and if the Raiders go up there and get the upset, I think
29:00 you've seen everything you need to see.
29:03 Everything you need to see about AP.
29:08 That doesn't mean if they go up and lose, I think you've made your decision on AP.
29:13 That's ridiculous.
29:15 This guy's had this team ready, locked, loaded, playing hard.
29:21 Still a lot of really good.
29:25 So I don't think a loss there precludes him from getting this job whatsoever.
29:29 But I think a loss up there, in my opinion, and I'm not Mark Davis, and he didn't care
29:35 what I think.
29:37 But I think if he goes up there and gets it, one word you need to see.
29:44 One word.
29:46 So those are five very important names of what I'm looking for, of what I think will
29:52 differentiate a Raider win or a Raider loss.
29:57 It's going to be an electric environment.
29:59 I'm super excited to be there.
30:01 I love to go to games in Kansas City, no matter who's playing, just because of the environment.
30:05 It's going to be electric.
30:07 And I look forward to covering that game for you.
30:09 Going to have a busy week of podcasts, tons, massive amounts of information.
30:15 I've got a surprise coming that I'm going to tell you about on Wednesday.
30:20 I thought I would tell you about it today.
30:22 I'm not going to tell you about it on Wednesday, that I think should excite every one of you
30:27 in Raider Nation.
30:28 It'd be really cool.
30:29 So from all of us here at Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation, Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast,
30:34 part of the Fans First Sports Network, again, Merry Christmas to you.
30:38 And if you don't want to watch the video of our podcast, you can go to Spotify or Apple
30:45 and listen to them there.
30:47 Additionally at Spotify and Apple, I do another podcast every day.
30:52 It's usually five to 10 minutes called Riding with Hondo Exclusive, because I tape a lot
30:58 of them in the car.
30:59 With even more content that's only available to our audio only.
31:03 Make sure you check that out.
31:04 So from all of us to all of you, Merry Christmas.
31:08 Hope you got to spend some time with family over the weekend because there wasn't a Raider
31:12 game, but hope you're having a great day.
31:15 Thanks for being with us.
31:16 See you again tomorrow.
31:17 Make sure you check out all of our content.
31:20 It'd be great to see you.
31:21 Great to talk to you and great to share everything we got with you.
31:24 Thanks everybody.