Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast breaks down what a win in Kansas City on Christmas Day looks like vs. the Chiefs.
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00:00 Hello everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation Las Vegas
00:06 Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:09 Excited to be with you this morning or whenever you're watching this.
00:12 I'm taping it very early in the morning.
00:16 As you know, on yesterday's podcast, I went through and said that I thought the Raiders
00:21 were going to win.
00:24 And I did several radio shows yesterday and around the country and I wanted to expand
00:30 on why I believe that and some things I think that we're seeing that point to that direction.
00:38 Now let's make no mistake, a win by the Raiders in Kansas City is an upset.
00:45 Not even pretending that it's not.
00:48 Max Crosby said yesterday in the locker room, there's a difference between competing and
00:51 winning and the Raiders need to win.
00:54 Not just compete.
00:55 I totally agree with him.
00:57 But I want to give you some detailed explanations.
01:01 So when I pick a game, there are 10 criteria that I use.
01:05 Not going to get into those 10 today, I'll do it in the offseason.
01:11 And when I look at a game, if it's tied 5-5, I always pick the home team.
01:17 Now this one isn't tied 5-5.
01:20 It's 6-4 to the advantage of the Chiefs.
01:25 But there's a reason I'm not picking the Chiefs.
01:29 You don't base things off of a one game track record.
01:34 So you don't go look and say, okay, the Raiders scored 63 points, the offense is back.
01:41 You don't do that.
01:42 You may.
01:43 I'm saying I don't do that.
01:47 And I take into account a multiplicity of issues.
01:54 But in this, I do look at track records if they're more than one game.
01:59 By the way, I just told this, I'm sorry.
02:01 This is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
02:06 Thank you for being with us.
02:08 Appreciate you joining us.
02:09 Merry Christmas to all of you.
02:10 Sorry, I just got right into it because I've been excited to talk to you.
02:16 And here's some things that we are seeing from the Raiders.
02:21 We are watching over several games, the defense continues to get better.
02:28 Patrick Graham continues to make adjustments, do some things a little bit different.
02:32 There are a couple things I expect to be a little bit different this time against the
02:36 Chiefs, number one.
02:40 Number two, the Raiders have been playing the least penalized team in the NFL.
02:47 I'm a 52-year-old man.
02:50 And if you would have told me at any time over my lifetime, we would be saying that
02:53 about the Raiders, I'd be telling you, you are nuts.
02:56 That was just not part of their DNA or who they were.
03:02 But that's who they are now, which I've always thought has hurt the Raiders, always thought
03:07 it.
03:09 And I think you have too.
03:11 And that ability to minimize penalties creates a lot of opportunity for a team, a lot of
03:20 opportunity.
03:22 Now because we have seen this over several games, we have now proven track record.
03:30 It's expertise also based on experience.
03:33 So it's what we've watched with our naked eye, which is over several games, the penalties
03:37 have gone down.
03:40 And it's also expertise that, so I mean, okay, we've seen it.
03:46 There's a track record.
03:47 So we have a pattern of expectation.
03:50 Number two is turnovers.
03:52 The Raiders have been very, very good protecting the football.
03:57 And they've been very good about doing things to keep Aiden O'Connell standing up.
04:03 So those are all a track record of things.
04:06 Yep, there is the anomaly of the Minnesota game.
04:11 But go back and look at the last Kansas City Chief game.
04:14 Aiden O'Connell was the highest rated quarterback in the NFL.
04:17 They didn't lose that game because of Aiden.
04:21 Now Daniel Carlson had a rare miss and things kind of steamrolled out of control with some
04:28 mistakes.
04:30 But I'm not making excuses.
04:33 A loss is a loss.
04:35 But we're seeing this Raider team get to a place now where they're playing at a certain
04:40 level offensively, defensively, special teams, disciplinary wise, where we now have enough
04:47 to say that is an expectation and a pattern.
04:51 It's an expectation and a pattern.
04:55 So I think those are all trending for the Raiders.
04:59 Had the Chiefs lost to the Patriots, I would have predicted Chiefs would win this one big.
05:11 But they didn't.
05:12 But they didn't lose.
05:13 They won.
05:14 They beat the Patriots.
05:15 So now there's a little dynamic here that I find fascinating.
05:20 Nick Saban once said that one of the most frustrating things is when your team does
05:25 not perform at a standard and wins.
05:29 Now good teams find a way to win when they're not playing well.
05:33 We're not talking about not playing well.
05:36 It's when your team isn't doing things the right way and you find a way to win.
05:41 Because then they begin to say, "Well, listen, we don't have to listen to coach.
05:44 We don't have to play at that standard."
05:47 Well, guess what?
05:48 The Raiders are playing at that standard right now.
05:50 The Chiefs are not.
05:53 And I think coming off a Patriot win, when it wasn't just that they didn't play well,
05:59 they didn't play fundamentally sound football.
06:03 And that was what Nick was talking about.
06:06 And so I think that's another card.
06:08 Okay, we've beaten these guys before.
06:10 We're at home.
06:11 Man, we didn't play good last week, but look, we didn't need to.
06:14 We were the Chiefs.
06:15 We're the Super Bowl champions.
06:18 I think that's dangerous territory for them.
06:20 Now let's not make a mistake.
06:23 I think the Chiefs are the world champions.
06:25 I think they have the best quarterback in the NFL.
06:28 And I think that they have the best coach in the NFL.
06:32 I'm not minimizing the Chiefs.
06:33 I'm just saying it all sets up for an upset win.
06:37 All sets up for the Raiders for an upset win.
06:40 Here's another example.
06:43 The Chiefs are a very frustrated football team.
06:45 They are a finesse team.
06:48 The Chiefs aren't the kind of team, and yes, they have a couple of players that are that
06:51 way, but they're not a team that's going to line up and just beat you up.
06:56 That's not their style.
06:57 Okay, the Raiders are.
07:04 The Raiders are going to walk into that stadium and want to punch them in the face.
07:09 The Raiders are going to walk into that stadium expecting to play a full 60 minutes.
07:15 A full 60 minutes.
07:18 They're anticipating it.
07:21 They're ready for a slugfest.
07:25 A fight.
07:27 The Chiefs are used to going in.
07:29 Maybe stuff's tight until halftime.
07:31 They do some trick plays.
07:33 They get a lead.
07:34 The other team's spending more time watching Taylor Swift on the video boards.
07:38 Whatever.
07:41 It's not this team.
07:43 It's not the Raiders team.
07:46 And if it's a 60 minute slugfest, I've got all the respect in the world for the Kansas
07:51 City Chiefs.
07:52 All of it.
07:54 I'm not in any way minimizing them.
07:59 Speaking poorly of them.
08:01 That's a really good football team and a really good franchise.
08:05 I've watched every game of theirs this year.
08:07 I don't know that they want or are ready for a 60 minute slugfest.
08:11 I really don't think so.
08:14 So I think that plays into it.
08:17 So then it comes down to this.
08:21 And this is a big one.
08:23 If the Raiders continue to not kill themselves with penalties and control the football, I
08:30 think they win.
08:33 And I think it'll be a monster win.
08:35 Now, if they go up there and the penalties are killing them, turnovers, they're not going
08:41 to win.
08:42 And my upset prediction is all predicated on those two big things.
08:49 I don't have any concerns that Aiden O'Connell is not going to perform at a high level because
08:55 he's done it over several games.
08:57 What about Minnesota?
08:58 Fair.
08:59 But when you look at his track record, go back to the last Kansas City game, go back
09:06 even before that.
09:07 He's playing better.
09:08 He's taking risks.
09:09 He's going down the field.
09:11 Now, I said this on a couple of shows yesterday.
09:16 I said it on a national show and I said it on a local show.
09:21 And I'm going to say to you, how come when the Raiders beat somebody, they always talk
09:27 about who's out for the other team?
09:34 But when the Raiders lose, it's never who's out.
09:38 And I'm sorry.
09:39 There's a narrative that's really irritating me.
09:43 So when Justin Herbert was out, Bosa was out, Keenan was out.
09:49 Okay, so that's all fair.
09:52 All fair.
09:53 I have no issue with anyone bringing that up whatsoever.
09:57 Okay.
09:58 Josh Jacobs, many believe best running back in the NFL, out.
10:04 Colton Miller, many believe one of the best left tackles, out.
10:06 Andre James, out.
10:08 Okay.
10:09 Chandler Jones, is he on the team?
10:13 Out.
10:14 Interim coach, interim offensive coordinator, rookie quarterback.
10:19 How come nobody talks about any of that?
10:24 Anyone?
10:26 Bueller?
10:28 Bueller?
10:30 Bueller?
10:31 Nobody does.
10:32 Well, it's because it doesn't matter.
10:38 Because you line up and play the game and there are no asterisks next to a loss that
10:44 says these people didn't play.
10:48 Because it's the National Football League.
10:50 Everybody, including the lowest paid man, has paid a lot of money.
10:54 They're professionals.
10:55 There are no asterisks because you play who's on the field.
11:01 The Raiders are going to show up.
11:03 They're going to play.
11:07 And it's like that old Rocky movie when Ivan Drago has killed Apollo Creed and Rocky decides
11:20 I'm going to Siberia to train and I'm going to fight the Russian on Christmas Day in Moscow.
11:26 His wife yells at him, you can't win.
11:29 The guy's loaded up, jacked up.
11:34 He just killed Apollo Creed.
11:37 He looks at Adrian and says, you know what, you're probably right.
11:41 But to beat me, he's going to have to want it more than me.
11:46 To beat me, he's going to have to be willing to die because I'm going to be willing to
11:48 die.
11:49 At the end, we're going to see what happens.
11:53 This is the world champions.
11:54 Best coach, best quarterback.
11:55 A lot of great players on that team.
11:58 Kansas City Chiefs deserve all of the accolades.
12:02 They deserve all of the respect.
12:07 But to beat this Raider team, they're going to have to be willing to be as physical as
12:17 physical.
12:20 They're a finesse team.
12:22 I don't know if they are.
12:26 I have suspicions.
12:29 We're going to find out on Christmas Day.
12:32 And on Christmas Day, if the Raiders don't beat themselves, turnovers, penalties, I expect
12:41 them to win.
12:42 I expect them to go in that stadium, punch their face, and these guys are champions.
12:46 They're not going to quit.
12:47 Chiefs don't quit.
12:48 They just won't do that.
12:52 But I expect the Raiders to put on a show on national TV.
12:56 It's like Max Crosby said yesterday, there's a difference between competing and winning.
13:01 AP has done a masterful job of every week having these guys ready, of every week succinctly
13:10 laying out what's on the table.
13:14 And the Raiders are still playing for a whole lot.
13:17 They're still fighting, scratching, clawing.
13:21 They're still competing.
13:23 They're playing injured.
13:25 They're showing up.
13:26 If you're a Raider fan, this is everything that you want in a football team.
13:33 You may say, "I want a different kicker, punter, quarterback, defensive end, linebacker, coach,
13:41 whatever."
13:42 I'm not talking about that.
13:44 I'm talking about the mentality.
13:48 This is what you want.
13:51 This is what Raider teams look like.
13:53 This is what Raider teams play like.
13:56 They're not perfect.
13:57 And man, they got some places that they can upgrade, but they're playing.
14:05 And there's a term the kids like to use today is called, "He's him."
14:10 Talking about.
14:11 And if you're a Raider fan, this is them.
14:15 This is the mentality that you've wanted.
14:19 We have not seen this under Gruden, paid $100 million.
14:23 Not seen it under McDaniels, paid $60 million.
14:28 But you're seeing it under an interim head coach who is a Raider, who embodies what it
14:35 means to be a Raider, who is the personification of a Raider.
14:42 And the team now looks like him because attitude reflects leadership.
14:49 We are two days away.
14:50 Man, I think this is going to be a great football game.
14:55 And that's my reasoning.
14:56 Again, it's 6-4 in my analytics for the Chiefs, but I'm going with the Raiders because of
15:06 the intangibles.
15:07 I very rarely do this.
15:11 Minimize turnovers, which is not something new.
15:13 You just continue it.
15:17 Don't kill themselves with the penalties.
15:18 Stay minimally penalized.
15:20 And I think they win.
15:21 One other thing.
15:24 When you deal with players and you say, "If they can do this, Team A can win."
15:34 It's very difficult, and I don't ever allow that to enter into my analyzation because
15:42 we have no track record of seeing this.
15:45 Is there one player on this team of which I or you have expectation that we have not
15:50 seen them perform at a level commiserate with what our expectations are?
15:55 I expect Malcolm Coons to be able to present to Patrick Mahomes some real issues.
16:04 That when Max Crosby's getting pressure on one side, he just doesn't float to the other
16:09 because there's going to be Malcolm Coons with him.
16:12 Wham, right in the kisser.
16:17 Is there any reason to doubt what Robert Spillane's going to do?
16:22 What Divine Diablo?
16:25 It's football.
16:30 Man I love this game.
16:32 Just the game of football.
16:33 How do you not love it?
16:35 How do you not just...
16:36 It's great.
16:39 Okay?
16:40 If any of us have doubts that Amik Robertson can make big plays, we've seen him do it.
16:48 Is that one player that we're saying, "Gee, I mean look at Tyree now.
16:52 There are times that we've sat all year with Tyree.
16:54 Well if he can do it, but he's shown us now."
16:59 It goes into my thinking.
17:05 If they stay minimally penalized and minimize turnovers, which we have a track record of
17:11 seeing Raiders 24-21, that's going to be a great football game to watch.
17:17 It's going to be physical now.
17:19 This is what you expect of these old school NFL rivalries.
17:24 It's what you expect.
17:25 Physical.
17:26 Tough.
17:27 I mean you're going to be sitting there wallowing in the post-Santa visit.
17:35 Hide the women and children.
17:36 Hide the kids.
17:37 It's going to be...
17:38 It's going to be like an old Batman TV show.
17:42 It's going to be fun.
17:43 It's going to be a lot of fun.
17:46 And again, those two criteria, turnovers, penalties, I think the Raiders win.
17:52 It's going to be a great game.
17:53 No matter what, it's going to be a great game.
17:56 From my family to yours.
17:58 Wish you nothing but a very Merry Christmas.
18:00 Hope that you all have a great day.
18:02 I'm Hondo Carpenter for Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
18:06 Part of the Fans First Sports Network.
18:08 Thanks for joining us everybody.
18:09 We'll see you all again tomorrow.
18:12 And in two days we'll also be seeing you.
18:14 May it be game day for the Raiders.
18:16 Have a Merry Christmas.