艰难告别2023年 2024年还有黑天鹅灰犀牛？
八点最热报 | 过去几年里，大家好不容易告别了冲击全球经济的新冠疫情，原以为一切就会恢复正常，没想到突然爆发了到现在还没有看到尽头的俄乌战争，以及以巴冲突，这些无法预料的黑天鹅飞扑而来，让世界经济措手不及。来到2024年，全球经济还会无法预料的黑天鹅或可预见的灰犀牛事件吗？（主播：萧慧敏）
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00:00 Before watching the video, I remind you that there is more content on the Hotpoint website.
00:04 In the past few years, we have finally said goodbye to the new coronavirus epidemic that has hit the global economy.
00:10 People thought everything would be back to normal.
00:13 But unexpectedly, the "goose-hole war" that has not yet seen the end has suddenly broke out.
00:18 This has caused a global impact on global energy and food supply, and has exacerbated the global inflation.
00:24 In order to ease domestic inflation, the U.S. Federal Reserve has unceasingly launched the most aggressive "summer holiday" cycle.
00:33 This has caused the global economy, including our country Malaysia, to pay a price.
00:37 Then there was another "goose-hole war".
00:40 These unexpected "goose-holes" have come out of nowhere, and the world economy is in a state of emergency.
00:45 Will the global economy still have an unexpected "goose-hole" or "gray rhino" in 2024?
00:55 Whether it's a "goose-hole" or a "gray rhino", once it appears, it will have a huge impact on the global stock market, including the stock market.
01:03 The so-called "goose-hole" and "gray rhino" in the financial terminology
01:08 refer to unexpected unexpected events or accidents.
01:13 The "gray rhino" refers to the potential crisis that has already existed but is often overlooked by people.
01:20 These are all events that are not safe and have a huge impact on the economy.
01:25 When the financial consultant Huang Chunmei was interviewed by the "Eight-Point Crisis Report", he pointed out that
01:29 the Maasai stock market is only a very small share in the global stock market.
01:34 If you want to see what "grey rhino" or "gray rhino" will happen in 2024,
01:40 you should pay close attention to the situation of the big countries, including the United States and China.
01:44 The head of the Malacca Policy Research Institute, Liu Liyu, said that
01:47 although the current inflation situation in the United States has slowed down,
01:51 it is expected that this year will officially enter the "down-trend" cycle, and the global stock market will also improve.
01:56 But if inflation comes back to the ground,
01:59 it will be a "grey rhino" or "gray rhino" for Denmark or other countries.
02:06 In addition to the situation of inflation in the United States, the founder of New Capital Investment, Zhang Guolin, also believes that
02:11 the "eight-point crisis" that started in October this year will not expand, which is also one of the key factors.
02:18 And if the "red sea tension" caused by the "eight-point crisis" is not solved,
02:23 then the "red sea" as one of the main routes of global shipping
02:27 may be the factor that will cause energy and gas prices to rise again after the Russian-U.S. war,
02:32 and exacerbate the global inflation.
02:35 At that time, the world may face a new wave of "up-and-down cycle",
02:40 and the global stock market will also fall with the "sick sheep".
02:45 At that time, the investors may not be able to suppress their shock.
02:49 Although the U.S. Federal Reserve has suppressed domestic inflation in the United States,
02:55 the stock market and financial analysts who were interviewed believe that the current international situation is full of variables,
03:00 and that the crisis caused by the "eight-point crisis" and the "red sea" may expand to other Middle Eastern countries at any time.
03:05 Therefore, no one dares to guarantee that the global inflation will not reoccur again.
03:10 Malaysia is a very small stock market.
03:12 We mainly follow the big countries, so we should actually look at what may have happened in the United States,
03:17 what may have happened in China.
03:19 I think these will have a greater impact on our stock market.
03:22 The United States will be more critical, because if the US stock market index rises,
03:27 it will be a bad situation for the stock market.
03:33 It is not what our stock market or investors want.
03:36 If the war, especially in Israel and Hazarmas,
03:40 starts to expand to many Middle East countries,
03:43 it will definitely have a certain impact.
03:47 If the US inflation has some factors,
03:52 will it be like the same as in 2023?
03:57 Because at the beginning of 2023, everyone thought it was the same situation, but it was not.
04:02 So this is what everyone should pay more attention to.
04:05 In addition to worrying about whether the US high inflation will reoccur,
04:08 the director of the Malacca Securities Research Institute, Liu Liyu, believes that
04:10 the US Fed's violent increase in the past year has also brought risks to some extent.
04:15 Therefore, it is also what everyone is worried about,
04:19 whether the US high inflation will affect the world.
04:22 The economic GDP is a very important key point.
04:25 If we do not continue to grow,
04:27 this will lead to the decline of the stock price.
04:31 I think everyone is guessing whether the US will decline next year.
04:38 This is one of the factors that will affect the US stock market.
04:41 If the US stock market falls from 3% to 4%,
04:45 this is one of the more serious factors.
04:48 If the US stock market falls from 3% to 4%,
04:50 this is one of the more serious factors.
04:53 The financial consultant Huang Chunmei and the new capital investment founder Zhang Guolin also believe
04:57 that the political factors in Malaysia are always difficult to detect.
05:00 Sometimes the government sends news of the fall of Taiwan,
05:03 which will also affect investors' confidence.
05:05 The local situation, unless the political situation is unstable again,
05:09 will it return to the previous two or three years, the government is not very stable,
05:13 but now it seems to be stable, so there may not be too many problems.
05:18 The financial consultant Huang Chunmei also mentioned in the interview
05:24 that if investors are worried that domestic political changes will cause the stock market to fluctuate,
05:29 he suggested that investors can diversify their investments
05:32 and not put the eggs in the same basket.
05:34 In addition to investing money in the Malaysian stock market,
05:36 they should also consider investing in other overseas markets.
05:39 Compared to the US, he believes that the US stock market is more attractive
05:43 and can predict what will happen.
05:46 I'm Shih.
05:48 I'm Shih.
05:50 I'm Shih.
05:51 I'm Shih.
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05:53 I'm Shih.
05:54 I'm Shih.
05:55 I'm Shih.