- U.S. markets recover as #Nasdaq scores first gains of 2024
- #BajajAuto to buyback shares at Rs 10,000, over 43% premium
All this and more with Agam Vakil on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Peter Mcguire, CEO, XM Australia
Anurag Singh, Managing Partner, Ansid Capital
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- #BajajAuto to buyback shares at Rs 10,000, over 43% premium
All this and more with Agam Vakil on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Peter Mcguire, CEO, XM Australia
Anurag Singh, Managing Partner, Ansid Capital
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/
#ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket
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TVTranscript
00:00 No official word yet from either parties.
00:03 And bonanza for Bajaj Auto shareholders.
00:06 The company has announced a buyback at a 10,000 rupees a piece.
00:11 This is against its current price of 7,000 rupees per share.
00:15 And Adani Group companies will invest as much as 42,700 crores in Tamil Nadu across different sectors.
00:27 Those are your top headlines. But let's start off with oil.
00:30 At the moment we are looking at a lot of weakness.
00:33 And it has in fact slipped nearly 4% in trade yesterday, even as Saudi Arabia announced a price cut.
00:40 And remember that the market does remain oversupplied at the moment.
00:45 This is the weakness which we did see earlier on in the year, at the starting of the year,
00:52 owing to a lot of geopolitical conflicts. But it does seem like that has been kept on the side at the moment.
00:58 And we are seeing weakness at the moment.
01:00 We are seeing the crude at least trade at around $70.9 per barrel.
01:05 And we're going to keep an eye on that one with the kind of drop we have seen in terms of its price.
01:12 That said, when it comes to the markets abroad, at least as far as the US is concerned,
01:16 it was a sharp up move for the Nasdaq, up as much as 2%.
01:19 For the first time, that is 2024, is when we actually saw a good 2% intraday movement for the Nasdaq
01:26 and the S&P 500 as well, advanced by as much as 1%.
01:31 A lot of the strength comes ahead of inflation data that will come through over the course of this week.
01:38 And let's not forget, unemployment figures is the other thing that the US markets are going to keep an eye on.
01:43 As far as Asian markets are concerned, we're looking at a rebound after the sharp sell-off that we saw yesterday.
01:48 So Shanghai, Hang Seng, Nikkei, all of them up and about in trade.
01:52 Nikkei specifically up around 1.5%, but marginal gains for Shanghai, Hang Seng up as much as 0.5% as well.
02:00 So keep an eye on that one. I reckon to a certain extent, we're likely to see a bottle-shot covering
02:05 should we open with strength as well here in Indian markets, considering the kind of weakness that we saw yesterday.
02:12 But from there on, we move on to the big conversation around crude oil.
02:17 The question really is that where do we go from here? Let's find out and get in an expert opinion.
02:22 We have Peter Maguire of XM Australia joining us on the show.
02:25 Peter, good morning and thank you so much for taking the time out.
02:29 Let's just start off with your assessment of demand and supply with respect to crude and the kind of implications on prices.
02:37 Well, good morning, Agam. Greetings from Sydney.
02:40 When we saw what overnight was quite a dramatic move, two months we haven't seen anything like that,
02:46 down nearly 4.1% for WTI, really crushed as far as price.
02:52 And that really took everyone by surprise, considering you had that geopolitical consideration with Hamas, Hezbollah.
02:59 We've had the leaders killed in these Israeli strikes.
03:02 That seems to have dissipated and there's no geopolitical, I feel, premium built into price.
03:09 And you saw the Saudis cut their price into Asia.
03:12 Yeah, obviously at the moment you'd have to say it's looking a little bit soft, but that can change any time soon with geopolitical, Agam.
03:20 Right. So what are the factors at the moment that could perhaps lead even more weakness, lead to even more weakness in crude prices?
03:28 Well, weakness would be if nothing eventuates as far as geopolitical tensions, that will wash out price and you'd probably have a more softness to the downside.
03:38 So there's the first part.
03:40 The second part is if you don't see any constructive mechanism as far as OPEC and how they deal with these prices,
03:48 whether they just say, well, look, we're quite happy to take a 70 or a $65 handle,
03:53 or do you see just a continuation as far as softness across that whole sector?
03:59 That would be to the downside. But there's equally an argument for the upside as well.
04:04 And what would that argument for the upside be, Peter?
04:07 OK, geopolitical concerns really get out of line.
04:11 You've got the Houdini rebel situation, Agam, that creates mayhem across the Gulf of Aden leading into the Red Sea.
04:18 The Suez Canal becomes a choke point. Shipping needs to go around the Cape of, around Africa.
04:25 That would really increase inflation costs globally because of the shipping of goods, how much an extra cost.
04:32 Then you've got other concerns as far as war premiums building to price. And that really escalates to the upside.
04:39 So, you know, it depends on how this whole situation is created.
04:45 And then naturally, as we saw earlier in October, it really adds, you know, four or five or even up to $10 of war premium very quickly.
04:53 Right. Peter, I reckon OPEC and non-OPEC production would largely move in tandem.
04:59 Is there a big difference between the two? And could there be a divergence?
05:03 And if there is a divergence, could there be a big difference in price as well?
05:07 Well, there could be a divergence as far as OPEC plus and the broader market.
05:12 So remembering what America produces and other big producers.
05:16 So, yes, that argument is yes, there would be, I feel, some form of divergence.
05:21 Secondly, we've just got to work through that to say the I think the mechanisms behind the consideration, where does price take us?
05:31 We can speculate all day and draw up scenario plans and, you know, create a business case for what happens.
05:37 But let's just see if it does materialize, because you're talking about major supply shocks that could enter the market as far as geopolitical concerns.
05:47 Right, Peter, we leave it at that. Thank you so much for taking the time out this morning and talking to us about what we can, in fact, expect from crude.
05:54 We continue to keep an eye on that one. Well, on that note, let's shift focus to our own markets at the moment.
05:59 And of course, we will be watching out for not just the indices, but also what's happening in the derivative space.
06:05 Let's not forget that we are also keeping an eye on the fin nifty expiry.
06:09 But I'm going to start off with the index futures.
06:11 We did see a sharp sell off in yesterday's day of trade with the nifty coming off by nearly 1 percent and in fact testing 21 500 on the lower end.
06:22 In terms of open interest, while we did see a significant addition, naturally, a lot of unwinding came through.
06:29 And that has resulted into a drop of nearly 1 percent in open interest.
06:33 As far as the bank nifty is concerned, the weakness was a lot sharper.
06:37 In fact, a cup of nearly one and a half percent. And we have now very easily lost out on the forty eight thousand mark.
06:45 Can we climb back over today? Tomorrow? Is that a possibility over the course of the next few days?
06:51 That's a question that needs to be answered. But for now, we have seen a significant amount of shots building in,
06:57 even as the open interest climbed by as much as 24 percent towards shots.
07:02 Now, as far as your option market is concerned, we did see a lot more writing in calls around 21 600,
07:10 even as the nifty moved well below that mark, testing 21 500 at the moment.
07:15 And naturally, we also saw a lot of unwinding of puts being sold.
07:20 But where does that leave us when it comes to your overall open interest distribution?
07:25 So at the moment we have Max. Oh, I now shift to around 21 700 from 21 800 yesterday.
07:32 And as far as calls are concerned and a substantial amount of unwinding seen around the 21 500 puts.
07:39 Remember, it still is the one with the Max. Oh, I.
07:42 But that open interest distribution has well nearly halved now at the moment.
07:47 So it does seem like we could be bracing for a little bit more volatility,
07:52 perhaps a little bit more weakness as well as we move into trade today.
07:57 It said it is the finney nifty expiry. So what are we watching out for?
08:01 We have already seen a lot of writing in terms of calls around the 21 400 levels.
08:08 And those strikes are naturally going to provide a lot of traders with some amount of resistance.
08:15 In fact, 21 350 and 21 300 will also be levels to keep keep an eye on with respect to resisting factors on the upside.
08:24 Now, let's talk about the stocks. And we did see a lot of weakness across.
08:29 In fact, fresh shots in something like a Naveen Florin, Bunden Bank, Hindustan Copper, Polycab,
08:35 all of them looking at declines with an open interest increase to its shots.
08:38 And in terms of those stocks, it's unwinding. We, in fact, did see longs unwind in Delta Corp,
08:43 Ghodesh Consumer, GNFC and Dr. Lallpat Labs. All in all, the market breath was not encouraging.
08:49 And the question is, if we can expect covering, when will it be? Will it be today?
08:55 That's something that we need to find out. But we're expecting volatility considering the finney nifty expiry.
09:00 And a lot of your large banking names are also part of that index.
09:04 So that's something that we will be keeping an eye on. On that note, we slip into a short break.
09:08 But don't go anywhere. On the other side, we talk about stocks and a lot more. Stay tuned to NET Profit.
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22:46 >> Moving on to IRB Infra, the total toll collection increased at 26% year on year.
22:51 The toll collection stands at 488 crores as of December,
22:54 which is that of December 22 last year it was 388 crores.
22:58 And the highest toll collection was from the MP Expressway Private Limited.
23:02 Then we have Tata Motors JLR where the whole sales stand at 1.01 lakh unit,
23:07 which is up 27% year on year.
23:10 And retail sales stand at 1.09 lakh units, which is 29% up year on year.
23:16 The Q3 client orders were also produced at 1.48 lakhs versus that of 1.68 in Q2.
23:23 So this is slightly declined.
23:25 And if you talk about the retail volumes, they have been higher in all the regions.
23:29 UK was up 55%, Europe 27%, China 28%, overseas overall was 49%.
23:35 Their order book as of Q3 ending stand at 148K versus that of 168K in Q2.
23:43 And lastly, we have Bajaj Finco where total new business premium stands at 962 crores
23:48 and gross direct premium stands at 1,425 crores.
23:51 So this is the overall review for the Q3 business updates that we had yesterday.
23:57 >> Right, JLR is the big one there.
23:58 Mahima, thank you so much for getting us those updates on Q3 business outlook
24:03 as well as what we can expect into the quarterly season.
24:07 But before we wrap up, let's very quickly take a look at what's happening with the gift nifty,
24:12 where we are at the moment.
24:14 We're looking at strength, 100 points up as far as the implied open is concerned.
24:19 The question then is, can this trigger about a short covering,
24:22 especially since we have seen such a sharp dip in the last hour of trade yesterday?
24:28 Well, we will know in time and that won't be too long, about an hour, a little over an hour from now.
24:33 But keep an eye on that.
24:34 And on that note, it's a wrap on this edition of All You Need to Know.
24:38 Stay tuned to NDTV.
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