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- #HDFCBank's ADR drops 7% on disappointing Q3 results - U.S Treasury 10-year bond yields rise above 4%   All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive _______________________________________________________   For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/ Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports Follow NDTV Profit here Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/ #ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE

Transcript

00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]

00:03 Good morning, and thanks so much for joining in.

00:23 You're watching All You Need to Know on NDTV Profit,

00:26 and my name is Alex Matthew.

00:28 Let's start with the headlines.

00:30 HDFC Bank's ADR falls almost 7% as the company reports

00:35 disappointing Q3 results.

00:37 Margins continue to be a concern.

00:40 US markets end lower and bond yields rise.

00:42 The 10-year yield rises about 4% after Fed's Waller says

00:46 there's no need to cut rates quickly.

00:50 Asian markets remain under pressure

00:52 as investors await key economic data from China.

00:55 Japan's Nikkei resumes its rally after a day's pause.

00:59 The RBI governor makes a strong pitch at Davos,

01:02 says India's growth story is built on a strong foundation.

01:07 And Fitch reaffirms India's credit rating at BBB minus

01:11 with a stable outlook, says the rating

01:13 is underpinned by robust medium-term growth outlook.

01:19 Now, US markets' equity markets ended the day lower,

01:23 with all the benchmark indices closing in the red.

01:26 The yields once again moved higher,

01:27 with the 10-year moving above 4%.

01:30 That's based on speculation that Wall Street's bets

01:32 on aggressive Fed rate cuts have gone a little too far.

01:36 As of now, remember, the market is expecting as many as six

01:40 rate cuts.

01:41 But overnight, Fed Governor Christopher Waller

01:44 appeared to push back against those market expectations.

01:47 And he said that with economic activity and labor

01:51 markets in good shape and inflation coming down gradually

01:54 to 2%, he sees no reason to move as quickly or cut

01:58 as rapidly as in the past.

02:01 Meanwhile, the early rises in the Asia-Pacific region

02:03 started mixed with the Nikkei 225 in Japan trading higher

02:06 by about 1.5% and the other two trading lower.

02:10 In fact, at this juncture, you have

02:12 the Hang Seng that has also opened sharply lower

02:15 by about 1.8% as well, and the Chinese onshore markets

02:19 trading with cuts of about 0.5%.

02:22 Let's turn attention now to India,

02:24 though, and talk about the entity that will likely result

02:30 in a shift in the markets today, or will determine

02:33 the course of the markets at least today.

02:35 We're talking about HDFC Bank, and we're

02:37 talking about its third quarter results, as a result of which

02:41 you have the ADRs that were down about 7% overnight.

02:44 But why?

02:45 Why is there a bit of a disappointment?

02:47 Vishy is joining in to tell you exactly that.

02:49 Morning, Vishy.

02:51 What, according to you, are the top elements

02:53 to focus on this morning?

02:55 Morning, Alex.

02:55 So the asset quality front, things

02:58 are looking stable at HDFC Bank.

03:00 The net profit has actually beat estimates

03:02 by analysts who were polled by Bloomberg.

03:05 However, the disappointing bit is

03:08 the operational front on the top line of the business.

03:10 So the net interest income for the bank

03:12 rose just about 4% quarter on quarter,

03:15 while the expectation was close to 8%.

03:17 So that's, of course, a disappointment.

03:19 And this is coming on the back of a slower deposit growth.

03:22 If you look at where the deposit growth is for the bank,

03:24 that's about 2%, 1.9% on a quarter on quarter basis.

03:28 So despite a slower deposit growth,

03:30 which would imply a lower interest expense,

03:33 you're seeing a dip in the growth numbers for NII.

03:38 You're also seeing the net interest margin remain

03:40 stable at about 3.4%, which the market expected, of course,

03:45 it to remain at that level.

03:47 However, the adjoining commentary from the management

03:50 has not been that strong.

03:52 If you look at the credit deposit

03:54 ratio, which is the one ratio that currently

03:56 is in the eye of the analysts, because the Reserve Bank

03:59 of India is also supposedly raising this issue with banks,

04:02 that is at over 100%, close to 110%.

04:06 And on the LCR front, which is the liquidity coverage

04:08 ratio, which is the free liquidity that

04:10 is available to the bank, even that is at about 110%.

04:12 So it's not like the bank can rely on the excess liquidity

04:15 on the balance sheet, and the bank has to push forth

04:18 on the deposit growth.

04:19 Now, if the deposit growth does pick up suddenly

04:22 in the next quarter, in the coming quarters,

04:24 you will see that NIM number start to compress again.

04:27 So that's where the analysts are in terms of their outlook

04:30 of HDFC Bank's future results.

04:32 The problem is also on the branch network.

04:34 There, HDFC Bank has said that it's

04:36 going to open about 1,000 branches.

04:38 Now, that's, of course, lower than the normal 1,500 branch

04:42 network commentary that the bank has been giving

04:44 over the last few quarters.

04:45 So that's what we are looking at at HDFC Bank

04:48 during third quarter.

04:49 Back to you, Alex.

04:50 Thanks so much, Vishy, for breaking that down.

04:52 In fact, what are the implications

04:54 for the Indian equity markets with the disappointing quarter

04:57 for HDFC Bank, considering the kind of weight

05:00 that it has both on the bank Nifty

05:02 as well as on the Nifty 50?

05:03 To give you some indication of the cues from the F&O space,

05:06 Agam is joining in.

05:08 Agam, indications are that it will be a bit of a weak start

05:11 today.

05:12 What can you tell us from what you're

05:13 picking up on the F&O side?

05:14 Right, so to give you a picture, HDFC

05:17 is about over 10% weightage on the Nifty

05:20 and a third of the weightage on the bank Nifty.

05:23 So it's going to be a significant one when

05:25 it comes to its implication, the kind of reaction

05:28 that we can expect as far as indices are concerned.

05:30 Yesterday, we saw unwinding as far as the Nifty goes,

05:34 even as the underlying came off by about a quarter percent.

05:38 And we did see a lot of traders take off their positions.

05:42 Even in terms of the bank Nifty, while the index remained flat,

05:46 we saw unwinding as far as your open interest is concerned.

05:48 So it did seem like at least a quarter of the market

05:53 did seem to not want to carry on the longs any further,

05:59 at least not before the earnings for HDFC were out.

06:02 But in terms of the options market,

06:05 remember that yesterday we went in and out of the 22,000 mark

06:09 as far as the Nifty is concerned.

06:11 And on account of that, a lot of traders

06:13 took that as an opportunity to go ahead and short

06:17 your higher level calls.

06:18 So we did see an increase in 22, 200, 22, 300, 21, 22, 100

06:23 calls as far as writing is concerned.

06:26 Where does that leave us in terms of your overall open

06:28 interest distribution picture?

06:30 We still have maximum open interest in the 22,000 put.

06:35 Which still may serve as a little bit of a support,

06:38 but a lot will depend on the kind of earnings

06:41 that we see through over the course of the next few days.

06:44 And of course, the 22, 500 call is the one

06:47 with the maximum open interest.

06:49 Today is also the Nifty bank-- pardon me--

06:53 the bank Nifty's weekly options expiry,

06:56 and which is why we will have that particular index also

07:00 in focus for now.

07:01 We are looking at a significant amount of writing

07:03 as far as call is concerned, as you can see here.

07:06 48, 300.

07:07 And on the higher end, 49,000 call.

07:09 I reckon the 49,000 call has been written, keeping in mind,

07:13 well, not just this week's expiry-- that is today--

07:16 but also the next week.

07:18 Let's move on and talk about a handful of other counters.

07:21 And of course, we did see longs building up

07:23 in Nalco, BPCL, Page Industries.

07:25 And L&T Technologies, on the other hand,

07:27 saw shorts building up.

07:28 In terms of stocks which are unwinding,

07:30 let's pull up that list as well.

07:32 We did see Apolitan, CoForge, see longs and wind,

07:35 short covering for Biocon, Chamel Fertilizers, RBL Bank.

07:40 That said, once again, Alex, I reckon

07:42 that traders will now see what the first one-hour trade can

07:47 pan out for HDFC Bank as well as Bank Nifty.

07:50 And after that, we'll potentially

07:53 see the kind of trend that the traders want to take them

07:55 and how they want to take the markets forward.

07:57 No, the other pack that we're focusing on this morning

08:00 is the IT pack, in fact.

08:01 And incidentally, you also saw sharp cuts for the Wipro ADR.

08:06 We've got LTTS that has reported its third quarter earnings.

08:11 Just trying to figure out, Agam, so you've

08:13 looked at the numbers.

08:14 What stood out to you?

08:16 Right, so it was largely an inline quarter.

08:18 We saw about 1.5% growth sequentially

08:20 when it comes to revenues.

08:22 We did see about 20 basis points improvement in its margins.

08:25 And all in all, we did see a substantial growth

08:29 in its telecommunications and high tech segment.

08:32 That now contributes to as much as quarter of its revenues.

08:35 And a third of its revenues come from transportation.

08:39 That has also seen about a 1% growth on a sequential basis.

08:42 So a lot of these factors are playing in favor

08:45 of L&T technology services.

08:46 But you must also remember, it is also

08:48 one of the more expensive stocks on the street,

08:51 as far as your IT companies go.

08:54 And that's the reason why we've seen a little bit

08:56 of consolidation play out, as far as LTTS is concerned,

08:59 over the course of the last few months.

09:02 The question is, where does this company go on from here on?

09:06 And well, it's also had its fair share of challenges

09:10 with respect to the US economy, considering

09:13 a substantial portion does come from North America.

09:16 So we'll be keeping an eye on that one, as far as LTTS

09:18 is concerned.

09:18 Alex.

09:19 All right, thanks so much, Agam, for breaking that down.

09:21 Remember, we've been bringing you coverage from Davos.

09:25 The World Economic Forum is ongoing.

09:26 And in fact, it was an interesting second day

09:32 in the snowy Alps.

09:33 And we've got several corporate voices, as well as

09:36 political voices, from that forum.

09:38 And Neeraj has this wrap of the key highlights

09:41 from the second day.

09:45 Well, this is day two, a wrap on day two of what happened

09:48 in Davos and what happened particularly

09:51 on the NDTV network.

09:52 Now, interesting takeaways.

09:54 One, if you walk across the promenade,

09:56 you will see that the India presence is not low,

10:01 but it's toned down a little bit.

10:03 There are enough and more state pavilions.

10:05 There are enough and more company pavilions

10:07 out there, as well.

10:08 And there are enough and more people asking about what's

10:11 happening within this country's companies.

10:13 Like, for example, is Indian IT doing big things in AI?

10:17 And if you look at a couple of corporate pavilions

10:20 of the Indian IT companies, you will

10:21 see a distinct mark of AI being there.

10:24 And very impressive.

10:25 So that's part one.

10:27 Part two, you saw Indian hospitality out there,

10:29 by the way.

10:30 Tea being served, other aspects being served.

10:32 So that's the other thing.

10:33 But more importantly, in terms of conversations

10:35 that happen out here on the NDTV network,

10:39 everybody from the Jeffries country head and Mahesh

10:44 Nandurkar, so Ashish Agrawal, Mahesh Nandurkar,

10:47 or the global head of investment banking at JP Morgan,

10:52 or for that matter, we spoke to Peter Wozor of ABB,

10:54 all talking about the possibilities of higher

10:57 investments in India.

10:58 In fact, the point that was made by Jeffries

11:01 was that they believe that 2024 could actually

11:04 be a landmark year in terms of FII flows and even FDI flows,

11:08 because both the depth of the capital markets,

11:10 as well as the hunger for corporate FDI

11:15 seems to be at a high.

11:18 Peter Wozor of ABB was of the opinion

11:19 that India will compete with world organizations,

11:23 not on the lower end manufacturing,

11:25 but on the high end manufacturing.

11:27 So that's a slightly differentiated view

11:28 that we got.

11:29 And you should catch the interaction tomorrow

11:31 on their network as well.

11:33 And last but not the least, from amongst the people

11:37 that I spoke on the promenade off air,

11:39 enthusiasts who are out here at Davos from India,

11:43 smaller corporations, startups, et cetera,

11:46 very, very constructive on what's

11:47 happening within their companies and the kind of atmosphere

11:51 that exists for funding, despite the fact

11:53 that we are looking at higher interest rates currently.

11:55 So that's a wrap on day two.

11:57 Turned out to be a pretty interesting day

11:58 of conversations.

11:59 I'm sure day three and day four will

12:01 be the same and possibly more.

12:03 Stay tuned on the NDTV network.

12:05 Thanks for watching.

12:07 All right, now, we had a conversation,

12:10 rather Neeraj had a conversation with Rajiv Mimani,

12:12 where he said that the India story got much more reinforced

12:16 this year at Davos.

12:18 And he feels that last year was a much more bearish sentiment.

12:21 Here's what he said.

12:24 From a global standpoint, if I was to compare it

12:28 with last year, I think the mood last year

12:30 was much more bearish than where it is today.

12:34 I think people were discussing whether we'll

12:35 have one quarter of recession, slowdown, or two quarters.

12:38 As compared to-- and it hasn't been the case.

12:41 I think things have worked out not perfectly,

12:44 but not as bad as what people thought it will be.

12:46 So this year, I find people are--

12:50 I won't say they are bullish, but they probably

12:52 feel that things will start picking up.

12:55 The interest rate cycle is coming down.

12:56 Inflation is coming down.

12:58 Geopolitics is still a concern.

13:00 AI is still-- which way it will happen is a concern.

13:03 But overall, I think people feel much better.

13:08 Europe feels that they'll probably do better

13:10 than where they did last year.

13:11 US feels probably they'll be a bit slower than where

13:14 they were last year.

13:14 Some pockets of Europe, like Germany and others,

13:16 may go through a slowdown.

13:17 So that's a global perspective.

13:19 From an India standpoint, I think last year also,

13:22 the Indian story was very strong.

13:23 But I think it certainly got much more reinforced this year,

13:27 because the growth this year really stands out

13:30 as compared to global growth.

13:34 People are also seeing whatever was committed in the budget.

13:38 Actually, we've probably done better than that.

13:40 So overall, I would say things are very, very positive

13:42 from an India standpoint.

13:44 And as always, you can catch that entire conversation

13:46 on the website, NDTVprofit.com, and indeed,

13:49 on the social media platforms.

13:51 We have to slip into a very quick break.

13:52 There's more on the other side, so do stay tuned.

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16:45 >> Welcome back.

16:45 You're watching All You Need to Know.

16:47 We've already discussed HDFC Bank and LTTS and the ITPAC,

16:51 but there are a few more stocks that you should watch

16:53 out for in trade today.

16:54 And Varsha is joining in to give you some perspective

16:56 on the latest there.

16:57 Morning, Varsha.

16:57 What is on your list today?

16:59 >> Good morning, Alex.

17:00 So let's start with Adani Green

17:02 where we have business update for Q3 FY24

17:05 wherein a company has reported over 14% jump

17:08 in sales year on year.

17:09 And also it has reported pipeline

17:11 of almost 2 crore smart meters with contract value

17:13 of more than 25,000 crores.

17:15 And company has sold almost 2,400 million units.

17:19 Also, if you see the distribution loss,

17:21 a standard 5.46% in Q3 FY24 versus 5.6% last year.

17:26 And it has awarded a contract of 2 million smart meters

17:30 with contract value of 2,300 crore.

17:32 Also, if you see, a company has received LOI

17:34 for Khawara Pooling Station

17:37 and it has operationalized Khargar Vikroli Asset.

17:40 Then we have PNC InfraTech where it gets LOI

17:42 for road construction project worth 1,000 crores

17:45 in Bhopal from Madhya Pradesh Road Development Corporation

17:49 and companies to build Western Bhopal bypass

17:52 as four-lane project with 40 kilometer

17:56 in hybrid annuity mode.

17:57 Also, if you see the construction of the bypass

17:59 has to be completed in next 24 months.

18:01 And as on 30th September,

18:03 an executed order book standards almost 18,000 crore.

18:07 And it expects a growth of 10 to 15% over FY23.

18:11 Then we have GR Infra Projects

18:13 wherein its unit executes concession agreement with NHAI

18:18 wherein the agreement is of 1,000 crore

18:20 for leaning project in Uttar Pradesh

18:23 and project is to be completed next 730 days.

18:26 Also, the operation period is for 15 years.

18:29 And if you see the recent projects

18:30 that company has backed in is LOI

18:33 from REC Development and Consultancy Limited

18:36 where it will build a transmission system in Raigarh

18:40 and the project is worth 41 crore

18:42 and project is to be completed in next two years.

18:45 So this is all we have got.

18:46 - All right, thanks so much Varsha

18:47 for bringing us those details.

18:49 Ultratech Cement, JMR Airports

18:52 as well as Godrej Properties, all of them,

18:54 there are updates on them to talk about as well.

18:57 And we've got Mihika to tell you

18:58 about all of that.

18:59 Morning Mihika, what do you have for us?

19:01 - Morning Alex.

19:02 So first I'll start with Ultratech Cement

19:03 which is incorporated new whole lead own subsidiary

19:06 and this is in Meghalaya

19:08 and it's called Layton Valley Cements.

19:09 Now the company will carry on limestone mining in the area

19:12 as well as manufacturing sale of cements.

19:15 The cost of acquisition, the company's invested

19:18 around one lakh rupees

19:19 and this is divided into 10,000 equity shares

19:22 and the company has an authorized share capital

19:24 of 10 lakh rupees.

19:25 Next, moving on to JMR Airports infrastructure.

19:28 They released their December 2023 traffic data.

19:31 Now the total passenger traffic was at 1.1 crore

19:34 which is 15.3% year on year growth

19:37 and the total aircraft movements stood at 68,095

19:40 which was up around 8% year on year.

19:43 The highest passenger traffic was at Delhi Airport

19:45 where the passengers traffic stood at 66.24 lakhs

19:49 which was an 8% growth.

19:50 Indonesia passenger traffic and the aircraft movements

19:53 are 2% and 10% year on year decline respectively

19:57 while as the Philippines passenger traffic

19:59 saw the highest growth of 23%.

20:01 And lastly, we have Godrej Properties.

20:03 Now in December, on December 31st, 2023,

20:06 the company had informed that they had acquired

20:08 four acres of land at Yashwantpur, Bengaluru.

20:11 Now the company has acquired additional one acre of land

20:15 at the same place.

20:16 The development potential of this area

20:18 is 1.4 lakhs square feet of saleable area

20:21 and the company plans to build premium

20:24 residential apartments in this place.

20:25 - All right, thanks so much, Mihika.

20:27 Let's focus in on earnings now

20:29 and we've got ICICI Prudential Life Insurance

20:31 to look forward to.

20:32 Monal is here to tell you what to focus on.

20:35 Monal, what are the key aspects here?

20:38 - Morning, Alex.

20:39 With LIC making the kind of comeback that it has,

20:42 I'm sure all the life insurance stocks

20:44 are feeling the pressure, at least the private payers.

20:47 Also the regulatory overhang seems to be

20:50 what is going to be impacting

20:51 all of these insurance-backed stocks.

20:54 So the Bloomberg consensus has specced

20:57 the ICICI Pro's profit estimate to be at 272 crore.

21:02 KR Chokshi has said that AP is expected

21:04 around rupees 1,900 crore, up 3% year on year

21:08 from Q3 last year.

21:10 And VNB is expected at around 544 crore,

21:13 which would be lower than last year, 12%.

21:16 VNB margins are expected to be around 29%.

21:18 Now one of the key monitorables here

21:20 would be the VNB margins,

21:21 because the non-par policies came under scanner,

21:24 the above five lakh policies that came under scanner,

21:27 are now going to have an impact on the margins.

21:29 They were high margin policies.

21:30 Also the share of ULIP is kind of increasing

21:33 in the product mix for these life insurance companies.

21:36 So that is one of the key monitorables

21:38 of how VNB margins are going to be moving year on.

21:41 The growth commentary of the company

21:43 of what are the sectors that are going to,

21:45 and what is its growth strategy and expansion strategy

21:47 is also going to be one of the key monitorables

21:49 to watch out for.

21:50 Apart from that,

21:51 persistency and cost ratios are also going to be something

21:54 that we need to keep an eye on.

21:55 - Right, thanks so much, Mona, for breaking that down for us.

21:59 Asian Paints is the other large company

22:01 that you should watch out for on the earnings front today.

22:04 It's going to be reporting its Q3 earnings today.

22:06 And we've got Mahima joining in

22:09 to give you some perspective on what to expect.

22:11 Mahima, what are the key expectations?

22:13 - Right, morning Alex.

22:14 So the key expectations would be that Asian Paints

22:18 is poised for a robust performance for Q3.

22:20 We can expect single high digits revenue growth

22:23 and double digits profit growth.

22:25 If you talk about the numbers from the Bloomberg estimates,

22:28 we can expect revenue to grow at 9%,

22:31 EBITDA around 16.4%,

22:32 and net profit is set to grow at 23.3%

22:35 as per the Bloomberg estimates.

22:37 Now, what can you expect?

22:38 You can expect double digit growth in terms of volumes.

22:41 You can also expect that because of the deferment

22:44 of festive seasons and wedding in the third quarter,

22:47 the volumes are going to grow well.

22:49 We can also expect some kind of improvement

22:52 in the rural demand and government spending

22:54 and monsoon deficit will aid the volume growth overall.

22:58 And margins will improve on lower input costs

23:01 because crude prices have gone down in the past quarter.

23:04 So top three things to watch out will be

23:07 top line bottle neck growth, volume growth,

23:10 and raw material price trends.

23:12 - All right.

23:12 Thanks so much for breaking that down.

23:14 Let's focus on the last pack of earnings.

23:17 And these are companies that have reported

23:19 their Q3 numbers.

23:20 We have the likes of Hathaway Cable,

23:22 as well as ICICI Lombard, Gallant, ISPAT,

23:24 and ICICI Securities to talk about.

23:26 Harsh has got all of those numbers for you.

23:28 Harsh, over to you.

23:29 - Well, yes, absolutely.

23:30 Let me start off with Hathaway Cable.

23:32 Good morning, Alex.

23:33 We're looking at revenue,

23:34 which is up roughly 5.5 odd percent,

23:35 but EBITDA is up just about 2%.

23:38 And therefore you've seen a margin compression

23:40 coming in there from 16.85.

23:42 Margins have come down to 16.26.

23:45 Your profit, therefore, has seen a bit of a knock

23:47 from 28.77 crore.

23:49 It's come down to 22.4 odd crore.

23:52 So that's on Hathaway Cable.

23:54 Quickly moving on to ICICI Lombard.

23:56 Again, a bit of a miss here,

23:57 even though the numbers overall look quite strong.

24:00 You're looking at net premium income,

24:01 which has gone up around 13.5% year over year.

24:04 You're seeing solvency ratio also rise to 2.57

24:08 versus the 2.45 number.

24:10 But the combined continuous remains slightly elevated,

24:13 103.6.

24:14 Even on an adjusted basis,

24:17 you know, adjusting for one-offs,

24:18 the combined is still above 102.5 odd.

24:21 And therefore your net profit has come in at 431 odd crore

24:25 versus the 352 crore number.

24:27 While it's up 22%, it's still a bit of a miss.

24:31 Let's look at Gallant, this path as well.

24:33 Revenue up 5.5 odd percent.

24:35 Margins have also gone up, which is a positive,

24:38 and profit has more than doubled from 21 crore to 52 crore.

24:41 That one will definitely be in focus.

24:43 You're looking at ICICI securities revenue up 50.5%,

24:46 and net profit also up 67%.

24:49 A bit of an operational efficiency play

24:51 which seems to be playing out there.

24:52 - All right, thanks so much, Harsh,

24:53 for bringing us those details.

24:54 That brings us to the end of this particular edition

24:56 of All You Need To Know.

24:57 Lots lined up in just a bit.

24:59 This up next is India Market Open.

25:01 This is NDTV Profit.

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Asian Markets Remain Under Pressure | All You Need To Know | NDTV Profit

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