- #HDFCBank declines over 6%
- What does this mean for shareholders?
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
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- What does this mean for shareholders?
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew on 'Ask Profit'. #NDTVProfitLive
______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
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TVTranscript
00:00 We take all questions, but tell us your name in fact and also tell us your
00:04 location where you're tuning in from and
00:07 Whether or not your question is long term in nature or short term in nature
00:11 That is if you're looking for a trade or if you're looking to adjust your investment portfolio
00:15 Now we've got a technical and a fundamental expert on the show
00:19 We've got Rohan Mehta who's the founder of turtle wealth and we've got Rajesh Palviya
00:23 Who is the senior vice president technical and derivatives at Axis securities?
00:27 Thanks so much gentlemen for taking the time Rohan has joined us as things stand right now
00:31 Let me very quickly take you through what is happening with the markets right now and you have the nifty 50 that's down about
00:36 1.4 percent
00:37 It's off the low point of the day
00:39 The story really has to be the banking back and the nifty bank down quite sharply in trade today
00:46 In fact, it is losing about 3.2 percent at this juncture
00:49 Primarily led by HDFC Bank and this is on the back of the results
00:54 We'll be talking about this in more detail in just a bit but HDFC Bank trading very close to the low point of the day
01:00 down about
01:01 6.6% or thereabouts the entire banking pack and if in fact if we can pull up the constituents of the nifty bank
01:08 You will see that the banking pack is also a little bit worse for the wear today
01:11 You have the likes of Kotak Bank as well as Bund and Bank as well as ICICI Bank all losing ground all the private sector
01:17 Banks, we'll talk about that in more detail and indeed if you have HDFC Bank what you need to do about this in your portfolio
01:24 Among the other sectors that are in focus you have auto that's down about a percent or so
01:28 You have metal as a pack that is doing not too well down about 1.7 percent or thereabouts in reality
01:34 Also losing ground about 1%
01:36 in fact
01:36 the broader markets are doing particularly better than the benchmark and they are down only about
01:41 0.4 percent for the nifty mid-cap 150 index and about 0.3 percent down for the small cap index
01:47 but let's focus in on HDFC Bank the Q3 numbers were a bit of a disappointment if you can say that
01:54 And to say the least the NIM contracted that is the net interest margin
01:59 That's the margin that the bank earns as well as the provision number was much higher than expected
02:05 In fact, it grew as much as 50% on a year-on-year basis
02:08 Now the question Rohan is whether or not investors should
02:12 Reduce their holding of HDFC Bank and on the flip side if you are sanguine and if you think that
02:19 Some of those disappointments are now in the price if you think you should add at these levels
02:24 Yeah, good morning
02:28 Has been that you know top of the town?
02:30 I'll tell you two three things of you know looking forward for HDFC as an investment
02:34 So first of all, let us say that 2023 the calendar year
02:37 The worst performer has been financials also backed by HDFC and the biggest merger thing
02:42 Which you know, that was the cherry on the top which you know
02:46 Eventually didn't had an event in the market
02:48 also
02:48 if you see the transition will take so much of time for you know from HDFC is HDFC and HDFC banks have an
02:54 Extremely different culture to look forward for and it that's what we have seen in last one year one and half
03:00 HDFC Bank has been you know biggest underperformer in Nifty 500 comparatively to Nifty 500
03:06 So I would I would see because see people start getting
03:11 You know in love with the stock and I think so people have gotten to the low with HDFC Bank and it's a great bank
03:17 No doubt about it, but can be a great bank in returns wise in next three years
03:21 I doubt it
03:21 So rather I would you know urge to look forward for banks like excess bank
03:26 Banks like KTK bank rather than HDFC bank. So HDFC bank would be a sell from myself
03:31 Okay
03:32 let's also very quickly go to Rajesh on the
03:36 Technicals because today remember is also Bank Nifty expiry and that's having a bearing on the Bank Nifty HDFC
03:42 Drawdown or the selling that you're seeing in that stock
03:45 So Rajesh, what are the key levels to monitor for HDFC Bank?
03:48 If indeed you have to sell and for the Nifty Bank, what are your immediate views?
03:53 So today the major
03:59 Tent on Bank Nifty is due to HDFC Bank and now stock HDFC Bank slip below to 100 day moving average
04:06 Also, so that clearly shows that you know now if stocks remains below to
04:11 1600 level then possibly we may see further more pressure in coming trading session towards 15 20 even
04:18 14 80 kind of level on the downside. So overall now near term structure is turning on the bearish side and
04:26 if it's remain below to 1600 one can remain on the short side of trade and then possibly 15 20 15 or
04:34 1490 would be the next target on the downside for HDFC Bank on the Bank Nifty
04:40 There is a huge gap down and follow-up selling is also there
04:45 liquidation of
04:47 Position is taking place in the data looking at the data set up
04:50 Now if it remains below to 47,000 then possibly a Bank Nifty will attract more supply pressure
04:58 For any kind of minor pullback if you get in during the day itself
05:02 so 47,000 is likely to act as a major supply zone for any minor pullback action and
05:08 If it remains below to those level then possibly
05:11 46,500 followed by
05:15 47,200 could be the next target on the downside. So data is turning on the bearish side
05:20 From the derivative perspective on the Bank Nifty. All right
05:24 Let's jump straight into the questions and quite a few have filed in just a quick reminder for everybody that's tuning in right now
05:30 You can send your queries to us on the YouTube live as well as on
05:33 The whatsapp number that should flash on your screen right now. All right, let's take this question from Mohan
05:40 He's writing in from Talcher and he was wondering whether to invest in HDFC Bank
05:44 I think to a certain extent we have gotten that answered where Rohan is saying that he does not prefer and if at all
05:51 He is a seller right now in HDFC Bank, but he's also asking about IDFC First Bank
05:57 He's got 1000 shares at levels of 90. Should he sell or should he hold is the question Rohan on the fundamentals?
06:05 Yeah, I think so IDFC Bank has shown some resilience from you know
06:10 Last two to three years the numbers has been improved and what we have seen, you know
06:14 After a longer consolidation of seven to eight years things is going to go into a good trajectory
06:19 And also there is a turnaround story which we look forward for with HDFC and IDFC Bank
06:25 So on every parameters we feel that it's an old story
06:28 So you should hold and if you get like a deep, you know, it can be a good point for accumulation
06:34 All right. Let's jump to the next question
06:36 We've got SD Belwal who's got Balrampur Chini, which he's bought on
06:41 Two occasions and this one's for you Rajesh on the charts. He's bought at levels of
06:46 476 and at levels of 506 so slightly elevated zone that he's accumulated or bought at the stock is currently trading at
06:55 387 or thereabouts and it's down about 1.3 percent in trade today. What advice would you give him based on the technical indicators?
07:05 So if we look at the short to medium term perspective also stock is consolidating since last
07:11 Eight to nine month, you know, very narrow range. So overall structure is looking on the consolidation board only
07:19 If stock manages to cross above 450 level then only we can see some revival in the prices and then possibly stock can show
07:28 good
07:29 traction towards
07:31 545-50 zone, but again
07:34 Looking at the near term short term
07:36 Structure, we believe that you know
07:37 Some more consolidation is likely to there if you can wait for another six month kind of time frame then only I think that
07:45 Trajectory where your bot can be reached in Balrampur Chini
07:50 So if you can spend some more time then only that the price may come
07:55 Overall structure for the long term is on the bullish side
07:58 But we can see further more consolidation for next couple of month also in the stock on the downside
08:04 365 is the key support area and on the high side 450 is the key resistance area
08:10 Until unless 450 not taken out it may remain in the consolidation
08:13 Understood. All right. Vineet has got this next question and it's from the perspective of the union budget
08:20 He says that he's looking at IREDA as well as NBCC and NCC at the current levels
08:27 Of course Rohan this one is an interim budget. So I don't think that there are
08:32 Likely to be any big bang announcements. I think that is the standard expectation
08:38 Of course, there could be something of a surprise
08:41 But having said that these put three particular counters what do you think about the fundamentals that could affect them going forward?
08:48 You see this all come or whatever the names they've been
08:53 They are you know in the market like, you know buzzing last six eight months and whatever, you know
08:58 The turnaround or the good valuation on the normal valuation would have happened would have happened
09:03 So the whole story is on the capex side and of course, the main government is working
09:07 You're all very bullish, but I would just recommend that you know, not to invest on only to that side of you know
09:13 That market may you know because of the budget looking forward for this three are very different company
09:18 But I believe that the way the things are it may give more 20 to 25 percent return to things
09:24 I've been caught a bit hotter in this size of the thing that people are suddenly very bullish bullish
09:29 So maybe a good profit pecking at 20 25 percent upside would be a good one. Okay fine
09:34 We've got mr. PK Bandopadhyay who is asking about Indian hotels
09:39 He says that he has bought but I do not know what level he has bought at
09:43 So just a quick reminder to everybody asking questions on stocks that you are holding right now
09:48 Please do mention the stock price that you have bought at he's looking for a short-term trade on this one
09:54 Based on what you're seeing on the charts Rajesh if somebody has been holding
09:58 What are the short-term expectations and at what level is a good level to sell?
10:03 So I think this
10:07 Stocks are doing good and Indian hotel is one of the outperforming stock series of higher top higher bottom formation across all time frame
10:15 Stock is enjoying all-time high trajectory. So looking at the overall structure. We do have a bullish view for the stock
10:22 Keep trailing your stop-loss. I believe he must be in profit as the stock is all almost at all-time high trajectory
10:30 So keep trailing your stop-loss if you want to have some near-term
10:35 Trading so keep your stop-loss at 450 level if it continues to hold above 450 then possible upside target
10:42 We can see in coming we are coming weeks towards a 485 to 490
10:47 Jayakrishnan is writing in from Coricode and he's asking about ultra tech cement for the medium term
10:54 He's looking at adding this company
10:57 Ron would you say that this is a good level to start accumulating based on the fundamentals?
11:04 Sorry, we're talking about the market leader in the cement category ultra ultra tech cement
11:10 Yeah, I believe that you know, you know
11:13 It has it has done in last six years for four years of good turn around has happened with it more than 26% of market share
11:19 extremely better management superior brand creation
11:22 If there is one cement stock should be bought in the portfolio without any doubt would be a traffic cement. So it's a great accumulation
11:28 Okay
11:31 Anything else though in the cement pack?
11:33 You know, would you would you prefer apart from ultra tech and what are the key red flags or concerns that you might have?
11:40 Is there any concern for example with regard to pricing?
11:43 See, I think so pricing is not a big concern for the thing because I believe that the way the demand is
11:51 It will not match but maybe seasonally there can be no one of water here and there which we saw in
11:57 2022 but overall I believe on a long-term aspect. I don't see a major issue till our you know
12:03 The growth story comes to an end. So you ask the first question, which could be the second stock. We like JK cements
12:09 The way the JK cements and the putti their business
12:13 They have gone with a good market share a good mix of you know, the tier 3 tier 4 market
12:18 They have grabbed is something which is very interesting. So on the larger scale and try to and to make to small size
12:24 It would be JK cement. Okay, we've got
12:27 Mitesh Bhardwaj who's tuning in from Bardhaman in West Bengal. Thanks Mitesh for writing in
12:33 He's got HAL which he's bought at a price of one nine nine six point six eight
12:39 Just under two thousand rupees per share and he's asking what his strategy should be for a period of nine to twelve months
12:46 So a lot happening, of course in the space that HAL plays in but on the technicals Rajesh, what's the view?
12:54 So overall a strong structure for HAL and series of higher top higher bottom formation that clearly shows sustained buying actions taking place
13:02 I think he should remain invested in the stock as we believe that you know
13:07 If stocks continues to hold about twenty nine hundred twenty eight
13:11 Fifty kind of level then possible upside target we can see towards thirty two hundred
13:16 440 also in the positional basis. So overall a structure is bullish you should
13:22 Buy an equity one in the decline also overall
13:25 Stock seems to be on the bullish side for across all time
13:29 Understood. All right, gentlemen, we have to slip into a very quick break viewers
13:34 You've written in a lot of you will take your queries after the break. So do stay tuned
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16:19 Welcome back you're watching ask profit
16:21 This is where we take all of your stock related questions
16:23 And we've got a question coming in from Natasha who's writing in from Goa
16:27 She's asking about
16:29 Electra green tech which she has bought
16:31 But she's not told us what level she has bought at
16:33 She's wondering whether to hold on to this
16:35 I'm assuming based on the fundamentals
16:37 And she's also wondering whether to buy something like a GVK power
16:39 Or even an orient green
16:41 I will take this question to you Rohan based on the fundamentals
16:43 And I'm assuming based on the fundamentals
16:45 And I'm assuming based on the fundamentals
16:47 A lot happening in the EV bus space
16:49 A lot happening in the EV bus space
16:51 So therefore is Electra a good company to hold
16:53 So therefore is Electra a good company to hold
16:55 So therefore is Electra a good company to hold
16:57 Yes so you know we have seen the product
16:59 And the products have been accepted
17:01 Specifically if you see a lot of government
17:03 You know buses have been now
17:05 E-Bus profit has been decent
17:07 But see this comes at an extremely high valuation
17:09 Of you know 180 times forwarded
17:11 Also you see this somewhere around 100 times of valuation
17:13 Which is where we are not comfortable
17:15 Which is where we are not comfortable
17:17 So that is the time we would see that
17:19 One bad quarter will give a very big bad hit to Electra
17:21 One bad quarter will give a very big bad hit to Electra
17:23 So that is the reason we would not recommend you to buy
17:25 So that is the reason we would not recommend you to buy
17:27 Natasha has just replied
17:29 She's bought at levels of 1592
17:31 So she's in the green, she's not losing ground right now
17:33 Would you say that it's a good idea to take money off the table
17:35 And if she wants to play the power theme
17:37 And if she wants to play the power theme
17:39 Which seems to be the case based on what she's looking at
17:41 Which stock would you recommend that she put money in right now
17:43 Which stock would you recommend that she put money in right now
17:45 So there are a lot of things
17:47 First of all, first answering to the first question
17:49 That I believe that watch the quarter numbers
17:51 What they are coming this time and then take a decision
17:53 Second is that you know
17:55 If you say on the power theme
17:57 There are a lot of power individual themes which you can talk
17:59 But I think on a very decent point
18:01 Tata power is available at a very very decent valuation
18:03 With a lot of good things coming on to the
18:05 In the next 2-3 years
18:07 So Tata power could be a best pick
18:09 In comparison of an Electra green
18:11 Okay, alright
18:13 Manik has got a question
18:15 He's writing in from Chennai and he's asking about
18:17 Tata Motors and what a ride it's been
18:19 For investors in Tata Motors
18:21 He's got 106 shares
18:23 But he has not told us again what level he has bought
18:25 In, I'm assuming
18:27 That he has bought earlier and
18:29 Well everybody who did buy earlier has made
18:31 A lot of money, the question is should they hold
18:33 On, based on the technicals
18:35 Rajesh what would you say
18:37 Yeah, so
18:39 He should hold as overall structure is
18:41 Bullish, stock is almost trading
18:43 Near to all time high trajectory only
18:45 Very mild profit booking is
18:47 Happening in the stock but still as
18:49 Stock is holding above 770-780
18:51 Zone
18:53 There is no as such worry in terms of trend
18:55 Stock may exhibit
18:57 Furthermore upside in coming weeks
18:59 So our target on the
19:01 High side is towards 845-860
19:03 For near term trading perspective
19:05 He should trail his stop loss
19:07 Around 780 zone
19:09 Got it, we've got a question coming in from
19:11 Umesh Gupta writing in from Gurugram
19:13 And he's asking about LIC
19:15 And incidentally LIC today became
19:17 Once again the most valuable PSU
19:19 Stock, it has
19:21 Crossed its
19:23 Listing price but it
19:25 Is and it's not too far away
19:27 From its issue price so it's made up quite a bit of
19:29 Ground, he's bought at levels of 904
19:31 Which is finally not too far
19:33 Away from the current market price so Rohan
19:35 Based on the fundamentals would you, oh actually
19:37 No he's asking for a short term outlook so Rajesh
19:39 I'll come to you on the charts again
19:41 LIC, he's very close to
19:43 His buy price, what should he do?
19:45 So after
19:47 A long consolidation, the stock managed
19:49 To break out on the monthly chart
19:51 That clearly shows that yes
19:53 We can see further more traction on the
19:55 Higher side and possibly
19:57 We can see target towards 940-960
19:59 In the continuation
20:01 Of this really so if he has
20:03 Bought at lower price yes he should
20:05 Hold it, at this
20:07 Moment we would suggest keep
20:09 A stop loss of 860
20:11 To hold your long position on the higher side
20:13 940-960 could be
20:15 The target in coming weeks
20:17 Got it, we did
20:19 Talk about the
20:21 Banking pack at the start of the program
20:23 But we've got a specific question coming in
20:25 From Manohar Charela asking
20:27 About Axis Bank whether or not it's
20:29 An increase or decrease if you
20:31 Hold the stock or if it's a fresh
20:33 Buy, Rohan I
20:35 Don't think you mentioned if I remember
20:37 Correctly Axis Bank what's your
20:39 View specifically on this particular counter
20:41 First of all
20:43 Disclaimer we hold in our fund
20:45 And we are indirectly bullish
20:47 In this company because we hold
20:49 So on that see Axis Bank is a
20:51 Great turnaround story after the
20:53 Citibank acquisition and all the things
20:55 Which has happened and it has been a great
20:57 Value because 6-7 years has been a non-performer
20:59 If you look at the numbers
21:01 The strength and the growth
21:03 What it is in comparison to
21:05 Axis, sorry in comparison to HDFC
21:07 OTAC and ICICI is
21:09 Quite a decent price to book value
21:11 And looks like that in private banks
21:13 Specifically large cap it is one of the
21:15 Biggest outperformers so positive
21:17 On Axis Bank targeting 1500
21:19 Rupees in coming one year
21:21 Got it, we've got a question
21:23 On IEX
21:25 Energy Exchange and we've
21:27 Got a question from Ramesh from Hyderabad
21:29 He's already acquired at levels of 186
21:31 In fact let's try and pull up the chart
21:33 Or well the stock price
21:35 Is down quite significantly in trade today
21:37 152 or 153
21:39 Is where it's currently trading
21:41 Down about 7%
21:43 Rohan there were a few question marks about
21:45 Regulatory changes
21:47 In the power exchange
21:49 Space and question marks about
21:51 Whether or not this company would face
21:53 A problem on the pricing front
21:55 Is that why the stock
21:57 Has taken a bit of a beating and
21:59 If you are holding at levels of 186
22:01 Should you hold on
22:03 Well see you know
22:05 In bull market, classic bull market
22:07 We see that the companies which are outperforming
22:09 And of course we have seen IEX in all the negative
22:11 Directory, secondly what has happened
22:13 In the business is when you pay a premium
22:15 Of an valuation to a
22:17 Monopoly business and then you find
22:19 That the company can't go to a duopoly business
22:21 The valuation just gets slashed up
22:23 And that's where what has happened in IEX
22:25 So on that scale I believe
22:27 That this is not the time to you know
22:29 Look forward for in the investment
22:31 There are a lot of power, good businesses which are available
22:33 Right now and just because the stock
22:35 Is down it is not a reason to buy
22:37 You know in a stock
22:39 So for the time being it is a
22:41 No it's a negative from us
22:43 Okay, Bastin
22:45 Arakkal is asking about
22:47 Adani Wilmar which he has bought
22:49 At 490 levels I believe
22:51 Let's pull up the chart and see where it is currently trading
22:53 So it is currently
22:55 Trading at 350 or there about
22:57 Based on the charts what is the advice
22:59 That you would give Rajesh
23:01 So Adani
23:03 Wilmar is still in
23:05 Bearish territory, we have seen
23:07 Most of the Adani group
23:09 Stocks have done well in recent past
23:11 But Adani Wilmar is still not able
23:13 To make out
23:15 The breakout above its
23:17 Major supply zone, so major supply zone
23:19 For the stock is at around
23:21 380 to 390 zone
23:23 Until this stock not crosses above those
23:25 Levels it may remain under pressure only
23:27 On the downside
23:29 340-335 is the important
23:31 Level on the near term chart pattern
23:33 So 335 to
23:35 490 is the
23:37 335 to 390
23:39 Is the consolidation for
23:41 Adani Wilmar for some more time
23:43 Either side breakout or breakdown
23:45 Will decide the further fresh direction
23:47 For the stock, at this moment
23:49 We expect some more consolidation is
23:51 Likely to be there in the stock prices
23:53 Got it, standard
23:55 Disclaimer, NDTV Profit
23:57 Is part of the NDTV Group
23:59 Which is owned by the Adani Group
24:01 Now we have got a question on YouTube on KPI
24:03 Green, we have got
24:05 Amit Rastogi looking for the long term
24:07 View on this particular counter
24:09 Any view on this one Rohan
24:11 Yeah it happens to be
24:13 You know, we believe that it is
24:15 Too over, more
24:17 Into fundamental side and
24:19 Valuation parameters more together
24:21 This is a good time if you bought it
24:23 At a level level, start having
24:25 A bit of profit booking, because what happens
24:27 Is that if there is a bit of mid cap correction
24:29 So all stocks which has outperformed
24:31 500% will have
24:33 A good decent correction and which is
24:35 Due, so it is a good time to
24:37 Take some profit. Okay, talk about
24:39 V, Vodafone Idea
24:41 Currently trading at 15.25
24:43 Rohan this one is for you
24:45 We have got Mahesh from Kochi who has bought
24:47 25,000 shares of the counter
24:49 Almost 6 months back at an average price
24:51 Of 10.2, he is wondering about
24:53 The short term and the medium term outlook
24:55 Or the prospects for this particular counter
24:57 Considering the uncertainty about the
24:59 Fund raise that has been
25:01 Doing the rounds or conversations
25:03 About the fund raise, what is the view on this particular counter
25:05 Yes see, this counter
25:07 Is like a very high risk, high return counter
25:09 The retail interest is just because
25:11 The stock is in the single digit
25:13 Now it is in double digit, still this
25:15 Company makes 30,000 crore of
25:17 Losses and which were, that's the reason we
25:19 Don't track in very detail but
25:21 Yeah, there can be a turnaround if there is
25:23 A funding thing which goes around but
25:25 Look at it, what has happened is
25:27 That the market share has been now grabbed by
25:29 Two of the businesses, Jio and Bharti
25:31 So if it happens also, it is not a long term
25:33 Story except it is acquired by
25:35 Two of these companies which we don't see any reason for
25:37 So on that terms, it could
25:39 Be a good short term trading bet
25:41 But on a long term point, we don't see
25:43 A vision of profit. Okay, fair point
25:45 Unfortunately that brings us to the end of this particular
25:47 Edition of Ask Profit Rohan
25:49 As well as Rajesh, thank you so much for joining in
25:51 And for answering all the questions that you did
25:53 Have a great day
25:55 Viewers, hopefully the questions that were
25:57 Answered on this program helped you in some
25:59 Way despite
26:01 Not necessarily being able to take all of the
26:03 Questions, if you got more, do write
26:05 To us and we will attempt to take them tomorrow
26:07 Or in fact, better yet, tune in live
26:09 And we will take all of them
26:11 Or as many of them as possible tomorrow
26:13 Do stay tuned, lots more coming up and this is
26:15 NDTV Profit
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