Will Markets See Short Covering Today? | The F&O Show | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

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- Eyes on the next week's #Nifty50 expiry - Reviewing #HomeFirstFinance's Q3 results  Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on the F&O Show. #NDTVProfitLive   Guest List: Ruchit Jain,CMT-Lead Research Analyst, 5Paisa Soni Patnaik, AVP, JM Financial Services _______________________________________________________   For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/ Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports Follow NDTV Profit here Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/ #ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE

Transcript

00:00 Markets bounce back after three straight days of losses.

00:14 Sensex crosses 71-700 while the Nifty stands firm about 21-600.

00:20 Broader markets outperform benchmarks.

00:24 It's a sea of green across the sectors with big moves seen in metals and financials.

00:35 An IndusInd bank is the sole loser on the Nifty Bank Index.

00:39 The bank's net interest margins remain stable in Q3 while interest income gains 18% year

00:46 on year.

00:49 And more earnings on the radar today, Reliance Industries, Hindustan Unilever and Ultratech

00:54 Cement are expected to come out with their December quarter earnings.

01:00 And today on NDTV Profit, we get you top voices from the World Economic Forum, Davos, where

01:05 top economists and corporations are speaking about changing the landscape of business,

01:11 world and global economy.

01:29 Hello and welcome.

01:30 This is Agam Vakil.

01:31 You're watching the FNO show, a show in which we take you through all that is happening

01:34 in the futures and options space in Indian equity markets.

01:37 For now, we are looking at a little bit of a bounce as far as benchmarks are concerned

01:42 with both the Nifty and the Sensex advancing, currently trending in the green and by a little

01:49 less than 1%.

01:50 So, that of course is the big positive here.

01:52 As far as the Bank Nifty goes, that is also moving and advancing in trade as we speak

01:58 with gains coming in.

01:59 The question really is that at what point in time can we expect a sharp short covering

02:06 bounce.

02:07 And for now, we are keeping an eye on a whole host of factors that are in fact playing in

02:13 favor, but we'll continue to keep an eye on that one.

02:16 But as far as the markets are concerned, we are looking at traction.

02:20 Let's take a look at what's happening really with the broader markets as well.

02:24 The broader markets are also moving in tandem with the benchmarks up around 1% for now and

02:30 advancing as we speak.

02:32 Well, the small cap index and the mid cap index is up and about.

02:36 Even in the mid cap index, we do have good gains coming in as far as a handful of names

02:41 go which would include something like an IRFC which is up around 6.5%.

02:46 JSW Energy which is up around 5%.

02:49 Oracle Financial Services are gaining another 4% right now which is also up around 3.8%.

02:55 So, that's as far as the markets are concerned.

02:58 Let's take a look at the futures and options space and that's where we have traction as

03:03 far as the Nifty is concerned.

03:05 So, about a 1.6% increase in open interest towards what we think at the moment is looking

03:11 like fresh longs.

03:13 We also have traction in something like the Bank Nifty and there while we don't have too

03:20 much to speak for when it comes to open interest change, but there is the up move of 1% in

03:26 its underlying.

03:27 And if you consider what's happening in the options market, once again, keeping an eye

03:31 on 21,000 on the lower end, on the higher end, continue to keep a track of 21,700 because

03:38 that's what's going to be in focus at the moment, isn't it?

03:41 We are already above the mark of 21,600.

03:43 That's where we may perhaps see about a short covering.

03:46 The Bank Nifty is already seeing some strength now as we speak.

03:49 So, let's take a look at what's happening there.

03:54 But right, so that's as far as your markets are concerned.

03:59 We will continue to give you an idea on what's really happening with the markets as far as

04:04 your futures and options space goes.

04:07 But before that, let's get in the management of Home First Finance, Manoj Viswanathan.

04:13 He is the MD and CEO of the company where the company has posted what looks like a very

04:19 strong quarter going in.

04:20 We also had a strong reaction at open with respect to the quarterly earnings.

04:26 Manoj, good morning and thank you so much for joining in.

04:29 I want to start with your assessment of the quarter gone by in terms of the kind of growth

04:34 that you are seeing.

04:36 Are you expecting to keep up with this run rate going into the next few quarters?

04:43 The quarter has been a good quarter and I think the last two quarters in the year were

04:48 also fairly good.

04:51 So we have been targeting a 30% year on year and we have been delivering that now almost

04:58 12 quarters since we listed the company.

05:01 Outlook is definitely strong because we are in the affordable housing segment.

05:07 Housing having, you know, getting a good push from the government as well as, you know,

05:12 there being strong demand on the ground.

05:14 It's a segment that is continuously growing and we have a reasonable share in the segment

05:20 and continue to increase share.

05:23 So our outlook remains strong.

05:25 We are looking to close the year with a 30% AUM growth.

05:29 We are looking to close next year as well with a 30% AUM growth.

05:33 And our targets are now firmly set on doubling our AUM from here on.

05:38 So we are looking at a 20,000 crore AUM by FY27.

05:44 So that is what we are targeting at this point.

05:46 All right.

05:47 Manoj, I just want to talk about the margin contraction here.

05:51 The yields are down as much as 20 basis points in the last two quarters and we have seen

05:56 a little bit of an increase as far as cost of borrowing is concerned.

05:59 Can you take us through these factors and how this impacts and what implications it

06:03 has?

06:04 Yes, so we have been, you know, maintaining our yields in the market more or less.

06:12 But the cost of borrowing having gone up is eating into our spreads.

06:17 So which is why you see our spread having gone down to 5.3%.

06:21 But this is something that we had guided the market.

06:24 So we've been saying since the last three, four quarters that, you know, the spreads

06:29 that we're enjoying at 5.7, 5.8% likely to come down to about 5.25% in the next couple

06:35 of quarters.

06:36 And that is just played out.

06:38 So this is largely because of the cost of borrowing having gone up.

06:45 You know, hopefully over the next few quarters if that kind of comes down, we should be able

06:49 to, you know, at least maintain these spreads going forward.

06:53 Right.

06:54 Manoj, I also want to talk a little bit more about competitive intensity and consequently

06:59 the kind of impact that it can in fact have in terms of pricing.

07:05 How are things panning out when it comes to home loans at this moment?

07:11 Competitive intensity has been, you know, always there in the housing sector and more

07:16 in particular the affordable housing sector.

07:21 But I think most of the players in the sector recognize that they have to, you know, what

07:27 do you call it, operate at certain yields to make a decent margin.

07:32 So that kind of holds the rates.

07:37 But having said that, you know, our ability to earn these yields is because of our more

07:44 granular distribution that we have, our better service to the customer, our strong technology,

07:50 and you know, very quick turnarounds that we provide.

07:52 So all of this allows us to command a slightly higher yield in the market.

07:59 And we will hopefully be able to continue to do so.

08:03 And a final question then, Manoj, what's FY25 looking like in terms of the plans that you

08:09 have with respect to expansion and what kind of implications would it have in terms of

08:12 growth?

08:13 In FY25, we are looking at, you know, increasing our distribution in some new markets like

08:21 MP and UP, which are emerging as large affordable housing markets.

08:26 Our mainstay so far has been, you know, Western and Southern markets, where we will also continue

08:31 to deepen our distribution.

08:34 But you know, we are looking at some new markets as well.

08:39 And with this expansion, we should be able to, you know, deliver a 30% AUM growth in

08:44 FY25.

08:45 Okay, Manoj, we'll leave it at that.

08:47 Thank you so much for joining us and taking us through the quarters numbers as well as

08:49 what we can expect going forward.

08:51 That's the management of Home First Finance.

08:54 And the stock, of course, is up and about on account of quarterly earnings.

08:58 But on that note, we shift focus back to the futures and options space.

09:02 And let's get in our experts for today.

09:04 We have Richard Jain, CMT Lead Research Analyst at Fypesa and Soni Patnaik, KBPF GM Financial

09:09 Services who's joining us on the show.

09:12 Good morning to both of you.

09:13 Soni, your view on the benchmarks?

09:15 We have moved above the midday high as far as the Bank Nifty is concerned yesterday,

09:22 above that mark for now.

09:24 So there is a little bit of strength returning.

09:26 But I'm not sure if we can in fact, call this a trigger for a short covering.

09:31 The question really is at what point in time would you in fact decide that short covering

09:35 is in the works?

09:36 And how are you viewing trade on the Nifty as well?

09:40 Good morning, Agam.

09:41 And to all the viewers, thank you so much for having me on the show.

09:44 So speaking about Bank Nifty first, of course, we've seen some respite today.

09:49 But as you've rightly pointed out, there's no such data which is indicating that there's

09:53 a short covering today.

09:55 As we do believe that today being the Friday weekly closing, it is important to understand

10:00 if Bank Nifty can give a closing above 46,500.

10:03 So above that, there's a residence at 47,000.

10:06 So only the moment when it's able to cross above 47,000 back again, we can say that there

10:11 is a decisive short covering scene.

10:14 So until then, there could be a lot of volatile movement swings happening in Bank Nifty.

10:19 And one must still remain cautious, you know, maintain a caution note as long as Bank Nifty

10:25 is not able to cross and trade above 47,000.

10:28 Talking about Nifty, I think Nifty, we've seen a very strong support coming in at 21,300.

10:35 It's a very crucial support for the entire series.

10:38 So as long as we're trading above 21,300, it may consolidate, may remain sideways from

10:44 21,500 immediate basis, you know, from 21,500 to 21,800.

10:49 Below 21,500, 21,300 will still act as a cushion for any sort of bounce back or respite that's

10:56 required.

10:57 The only point is that once we break 21,300 and go below, then that's a note for maintaining

11:04 some sort of a cautious view.

11:06 But until then, unless that's not happening, I think, you know, it's not a lot of a panic

11:09 for Nifty as of now.

11:10 It may remain in this consolidation zone.

11:14 And you know, what's important to note is that Nifty has still not seen any aggressive

11:18 short positions in the last two days of a fall.

11:22 It was just the longs that were getting covered and there was no fresh short positions.

11:28 I think there's some more respite in Nifty than in Bank Nifty.

11:31 All right.

11:32 So that's the view coming in for the Nifty and the Bank Nifty.

11:36 That's of course Sony's view on it.

11:38 Richard, good morning to you as well.

11:40 How are you assessing trade when it comes to the key benchmarks?

11:42 Hi, very good morning, Adam.

11:44 So, Adam, last three trading sessions, the correction that we have witnessed from the

11:49 all-time high is mainly because of selling from the FIIs.

11:51 If you look at the cash market segment figures, then they have been net sellers around 10,000

11:56 crore on each day in last two trading sessions.

11:59 And even in the index futures, they have formed short formations and covered some of the long

12:03 positions.

12:04 So three days ago, when the markets were at all-time high, they had about 64% long positions

12:09 in the index futures.

12:10 That has now come down to 49%.

12:13 And this combination of short formations or long unwinding in the future segment along

12:18 with selling in the cash segment is usually not a good sign for our markets.

12:22 Generally, whenever you see the FIIs figures, whenever they go long in the index future

12:26 segment and they are simultaneously buying in the cash segment, that is a phase where

12:31 we usually see a good trend and a move.

12:33 That is what we have witnessed in the last two or three months.

12:35 But these figures of the last two or three days are not much encouraging for the markets.

12:39 The RSI readings technically has also given a negative crossover from the overbought zone.

12:45 So I think we would see selling pressure again at higher levels in the index.

12:49 The 50% retracement of this last three days fall is around 21,700 and 61.8% is around

12:55 21,800.

12:56 So I think these are the levels where markets would again face resistance, 21,700 or 21,800

13:02 and we would again see some more downside from that levels.

13:05 So I am not very optimistic from a very short term perspective considering that the data

13:09 has turned negative.

13:10 Yes, if the data turns positive again, then we may change our view.

13:13 But for now, it could be a good opportunity to lighten up the long positions around 21,700

13:18 to 21,800 rates.

13:20 Okay, so that's the consensus as far as our panel currently is concerned is that there

13:25 is caution and there is no reason to go long into the markets at least at the moment waiting

13:32 for a whole lot of cues before we can in fact expect a change in direction considering the

13:38 benchmarks.

13:39 But on that note, we slip into a short break.

13:42 But on the other side, we talk about stocks and a lot more.

13:45 Stay tuned.

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18:15 Hi, this is the FNO Show and we now shift focus to all the stocks which are buzzing

18:19 in trade futures and options space related.

18:23 So let's take a look at all the stocks which are seeing an increase in open interest and

18:27 we have Dixon Tech along with IndusInd Bank right at the top of that list looking at weakness

18:32 and shorts building in.

18:34 On the other hand, Titan, Birla Soft and Bharti Airtel advancing in trade with fresh longs.

18:41 And in terms of stocks which are seeing unwinding, Indiamar Intmesh was something of next expectation

18:48 since it did come up with strong earnings and we have seen the stock decline yesterday

18:53 so we are seeing an advance here today.

18:56 Oracle Financial Services, well, advancing by another 3.5%, 4% after the whopping up

19:01 move that we saw yesterday, short coverings there as well.

19:04 Aarti Industries, Chambal Fertilizers also looking at, well, decline in OI and of course

19:09 Apolita is looking at longs unwinding.

19:12 That's as far as the most active stocks are concerned in today's day of trade.

19:17 Let's see what our experts have to say and recommend.

19:20 Well, Sonia, I come to you.

19:22 I believe you have a buy on IRCTC and L&T.

19:27 Can you take us through that one?

19:28 Yes, that's correct.

19:30 So I think IRCTC technically if you look at it has taken a good support at 9.35 and moused

19:36 back.

19:37 There's a resistance around 9.80.

19:38 We believe that if this resistance is taken out, it can rally up to 10, 2090, also very

19:43 good support levels and good breakout levels.

19:46 Plus, it is also adding up some good long positions today.

19:50 So this option that I have recommended is 9.70 call option.

19:54 Although the price has moved up a bit, it's around 20, 21 right now.

19:57 If there's any decline up to 17, 17.5, we can enter in that level, keeping a stop loss

20:03 of 11 and targets of 29 to 30.

20:06 This is the first recommendation on IRCTC.

20:09 The second recommendation is in L&T.

20:12 So L&T for a very long time, there's been a good support of around 3,500 and continuously

20:19 a lot of good additions were happening in the past two days in 3,500.

20:23 So that support has held, defended even in the volatile market.

20:27 And from there, we've seen it bounce back and taken out the resistance of about 3,600,

20:33 which has proven today.

20:34 So it's a fresh breakout in L&T.

20:36 So L&T can buy in the range of 36.40 to 36.30, keeping a stop loss of 35.80 and targets of

20:44 3,700 to 3,740.

20:45 Okay, so some interesting calls coming in, one from the mid-cap space and the other one

20:50 from the large cap space.

20:52 Ruchit, coming to you, I believe you have a long on ONGC?

20:57 Yes, I have a buy recommendation on ONGC.

21:01 So if you look at recent price action, then technically there's a high top, high bottom

21:04 structure and even then in a derivative segment, we have seen a good amount of long built up

21:09 since the start of the January series.

21:10 Now in the last two, three days when we witnessed some pullback move, those long positions are

21:15 still intact, not much unwinding of those longs and prices are now crossing the previous

21:19 no reason swing as again.

21:21 So this is just a sign of a continuation of the trend.

21:24 So we are expecting a good outperformance irrespective of the market volatility in the

21:27 stock.

21:28 One can go long for short term with stop loss below 230 expecting targets somewhere around

21:33 251.

21:34 All right.

21:35 Well, let's move on and also address what's happening with the oil marketing companies.

21:40 Since Ruchit has already spoken about ONGC, you want to address what's happening with

21:43 BPCL as well because that's where we have seen some amount of an up move and well, the

21:48 trend looks good at the moment.

21:51 It's advancing today as well as we speak up another 1% but on the whole, it has kind of

21:59 bucked the trend as far as markets go and it has also done reasonably well in terms

22:04 of how things have panned out off late.

22:07 Ruchit, anything out here?

22:10 I know that BPCL has made a little bit of a swift up move off late but is there more

22:15 legs to this rally?

22:16 Quite possible.

22:17 The stock is coming out of a decent amount of consolidation phase where time wise correction

22:24 was seen in the entire month of December and till mid January.

22:28 So I think if this continues, it's a 483 would be the important level to watch out for because

22:33 that was the high which was made on the 6th of December after which the stock slipped

22:37 into that consolidation phase.

22:38 So if the price has managed to surpass that high of 483, then I think we could see some

22:44 good amount of up move in the short term itself.

22:47 So as of now, if any existing positions are there, then one should continue to ride this

22:51 trend.

22:52 Nothing looks negative for now on the data front, but 483 would be the level to watch

22:56 to know for momentum to pick in.

22:59 And also want to take a view on Reliance Industries with Soni here.

23:04 Of course, we're expecting earnings as far as Reliance Industries is concerned.

23:08 Soni, a lot of hands involved in trading in Reliance Industries, so perhaps a more challenging

23:15 stock to make a bet on.

23:18 Still, how would you see this and what would your view be on Reliance Industries?

23:24 So I think last week itself, we've seen Reliance giving a very strong breakout above 2650 and

23:31 that holds a crucial level even as of today.

23:34 On the options data, there is a lot of call writing that has happened on higher strikes

23:38 such as 2800 call, which also holds the highest open interest on the overall all across all

23:45 these strike prices.

23:46 So maybe there is a bit of a resistance at 2800.

23:49 Maybe above that level, 2800, you can see some, again, a lot of short covering happening

23:55 and a good one-sided move up to 2860, 2880 levels.

23:59 But on the downside, there are multiple support, 2700 instantly, there's a good support below

24:05 that 2650.

24:06 So the view stands that it may hold the support of 2700 and 2650, that range is a good support.

24:13 It may hold the support and bounce back towards 2800 instantly.

24:16 But the moment it is able to cross above 2800, then only you can see another fresh breakout

24:20 coming in.

24:21 So as of now, anything lower to the dip of the support, you see any dips, I think that's

24:25 where you can see a bounce back happening towards the higher end of the resistance.

24:30 Okay, that's your view on Reliance Industries.

24:34 And before we conclude, just want to take a view on some of the other bigger movers,

24:40 at least one of the other bigger movers as far as today's GF3 is concerned, and that's

24:44 Bharti Airtel.

24:45 Of course, that will also be announcing earnings a little later on, not today, but a little

24:50 later on in the week.

24:51 That's up and about and it's also the biggest gainer up as much as 2.9% as we speak.

24:56 Richit, if you have a view on Bharti Airtel, how would you trade this?

25:02 So the view is positive, even the data is positive.

25:05 Today we have seen open interest increase of about 4, 4.5% along with the price up move,

25:10 which indicates a long formation in the stock.

25:12 And even the stock is no still holding, technically holding above its 20 DMA support, which is

25:17 a crucial one.

25:18 So until we see any kind of reversals happening soon after the numbers, if no such kind of

25:25 situation is there, then I think the stock should continue to move higher.

25:28 So one can take a fresh long bet over here, but keep a stop at about 1070, which is the

25:33 support and on the high side, one can expect targets around 1050 to 1060, sorry, 1150 to

25:39 1160.

25:40 All right, well, we leave it at that.

25:41 That's your view coming in on Bharti Airtel.

25:44 But on that note, going to take a moment to thank both our experts, Richit and Soni for

25:48 joining us and taking us through their views on the markets and also giving us a whole

25:53 list of ideas to trade around with.

25:56 But with that, it's a wrap on the F&O Show.

25:59 But lots more lined up on the other side.

26:00 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit.

26:02 Thank you.

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Will Markets See Short Covering Today? | The F&O Show | NDTV Profit

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