The House of Abhinandan Lodha is bullish on Uttar Pradesh's infra story.
Abhinandan Lodha gauges the realty fervour amid #Ayodhya's infra boom, in conversation with Niraj Shah. #NDTVProfitLive
Abhinandan Lodha gauges the realty fervour amid #Ayodhya's infra boom, in conversation with Niraj Shah. #NDTVProfitLive
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00:03 Well, the Ayodhya fever has gripped the nation
00:09 in more ways than one.
00:11 One of the beneficiaries, one of the people with foresight
00:18 to maybe have a large presence there
00:19 and created a flutter by doing a deal with Amitabh Bachchan
00:23 was the House of Abhidendran Lodha Group.
00:25 And I thought it was pertinent to get Mr. Abhidendran
00:28 Lodha in on this conversation about what is he sensing
00:32 with regards to, say, maybe real estate, not just at Ayodhya,
00:37 but across various parcels that he may be operating in.
00:41 Because as I learned at the WAF in Davos,
00:44 that India seems to be the place to be.
00:45 Abhidendran, great having you.
00:47 Thanks for taking the time out and being with us.
00:48 Thank you, Ninas.
00:49 Thank you for having us.
00:50 Let's start off with the Ayodhya fever
00:51 because you presumably have large parcels there.
00:56 So you had the foresight to go out and do it as well.
00:58 I would love to understand how have you
01:00 seen the response or the change in response
01:04 from, say, 12 months ago to now?
01:06 And what's your assessment of how things move ahead?
01:10 So I think we were lucky to see the change in Ayodhya
01:14 G's economic and social outlook a bit ahead of the curve.
01:17 And what we've seen in the last 12 months is everybody's
01:20 seen the translation from potential to actualization.
01:24 And it's quite amazing the way Ayodhya G has built out
01:27 in the last 12 months in terms of infrastructure.
01:30 And the plans for the next 12 months
01:32 in terms of what they are going to do
01:34 creates a very, very compelling economic story for people
01:36 to participate in.
01:37 And we are also seeing the change in that.
01:39 We, in fact, launched our development just last night
01:42 called the Saryu.
01:44 And in less than 12 hours, we've effectively been sold out.
01:47 Sold out in less than 12 hours.
01:49 This is a plotted development.
01:50 This is the first phase of the plotted development.
01:52 We have villas and residential apartments there as well.
01:55 We just launched the plots.
01:56 And what we've seen is the participation
01:59 is extremely unique.
02:00 It's from roughly 63 countries across the world.
02:03 And these are people from--
02:05 70% of them have some history related to Uttar Pradesh.
02:09 Either their families have been there or they've been there.
02:11 And all of them are coming together
02:13 to realize the economic potential of Ayodhya G
02:15 with the kind of development that is happening.
02:17 So it is the emotional appeal, but it's also
02:19 very, very strong underlying economic rationale.
02:22 Can you elaborate a bit on that?
02:24 So what our sensing is, Uttar Pradesh
02:27 is the nerve center of the country in terms of--
02:29 it's the most populated state.
02:31 And it's also extremely politically important.
02:33 But for the last 30, 40 years, a lot of the investment
02:36 from Uttar Pradesh actually went out
02:39 because people were not very, very clear
02:41 about the economic trajectory of that state, probably
02:43 until 2010, 2015.
02:45 And people also migrated out of there.
02:47 People have now understood that the kind of infrastructure
02:50 getting built out in Uttar Pradesh,
02:51 starting with Ayodhya G as point one.
02:53 But even if you see Lucknow, Vrindavan, Kashi, et cetera,
02:57 it's unique in terms of the size, scale,
03:00 and speed of execution.
03:01 And the administrative behavior of the state
03:05 is also quite exemplary from what
03:06 I've seen in almost most other states across India.
03:09 It's very well managed, which normally leads
03:12 to a very strong economic boom.
03:14 The Indian cultural tourism acceptance
03:18 has also grown substantially across the world.
03:20 So I think people are sort of interjecting the fact
03:22 that there's going to be great infrastructure getting
03:24 built here.
03:25 The economic policies are pro-investment.
03:29 The kind of people coming here are in a position to spend.
03:34 And there is a deep desire to spend
03:36 because nobody spent inside the state for almost 30, 40 years.
03:39 All of this is coming together to create a confluence
03:42 of demand, not just for Ayodhya G,
03:44 but I'm guessing in most locations across UP
03:46 where we believe we will be operating in the next 12 months.
03:49 OK, before I talk a bit about that, just a word
03:52 on the demand in Ayodhya per se.
03:57 Now, do you reckon that this is a start of something
04:04 substantial out there?
04:06 Or has the substantial already happened,
04:09 and now it will be more gradual or streamlining
04:15 or flatlining?
04:16 Because a large portion of uptick,
04:17 as we read in the reports, has already happened.
04:20 My view, Neeraj, is that the movement on the ground is real.
04:24 It has just started.
04:27 Over the next 12 to 24 months, the amount
04:29 of people who will come and see Ayodhya G
04:32 is more than the amount we've seen in the last 40 years
04:34 put together.
04:34 Agreed.
04:35 And more and more the people come, and they see the change.
04:38 In the last 12 months, Ayodhya G has gone from being,
04:42 I would believe, a town in Uttar Pradesh
04:44 to it's getting built out like any other global city.
04:46 When you see the common areas, they
04:48 are on line with what you would probably see in Sydney or Prague.
04:52 The kind of cleanliness, the size of the common areas
04:56 that they are building out, and the quality of work
04:58 that they are doing is quite outstanding.
05:00 So if I was to juxtapose all of these together,
05:03 it would ideally mean that we are
05:05 seeing the start of a sustained economic revival
05:08 in that part of the country.
05:10 And that will lead to a very, very quick escalation
05:13 over the next three or four years in terms of demand
05:15 and on-ground change in pricing.
05:17 Also because the base is--
05:18 It's very, very small.
05:19 It's very, very small.
05:20 Got it.
05:21 And you anticipate that even Uttar Pradesh as a state
05:25 could actually see, if not similar, but strong trends.
05:29 Because as you said off air, that real estate and economy
05:33 follows infrastructure development,
05:35 and infradevelopment out there is to be seen to be believed.
05:38 We are very, very bullish on Uttar Pradesh as a group.
05:40 We believe that this is going to be quite transformational
05:44 over the next five years.
05:45 And in our mind, the largest real estate movement
05:49 in this country will come in this state.
05:52 So it is not just Ayodhya.
05:54 I think there are almost eight or nine locations
05:56 across Uttar Pradesh which will see similar kind of movement
05:59 over the next four to five years.
06:00 OK.
06:01 And you reckon that infradevelopment has happened,
06:03 but economic development, which thus far hasn't
06:06 been the strongest, could also come about?
06:08 Because as a real estate person, I'm
06:10 guessing you look at all of these factors.
06:11 Can you talk a bit about what you're seeing there?
06:13 So what we're seeing is the infrastructure development
06:15 is taking place at a rapid pace.
06:17 The acceptance of Uttar Pradesh as being
06:18 a central part of what the story in India needs to be
06:21 is quite high.
06:23 People are sort of seeing that there
06:24 is no issue with regards to law and order.
06:26 And with all of this put together,
06:29 we see the real estate pricing is going
06:31 to change quite substantially.
06:33 And economic rationale dictates that a lot of the industries
06:36 and a lot of participation has to go up in UP.
06:39 If I was to sort of put the numbers,
06:41 my personal belief, backed with some data,
06:44 is that the investment UP will see in the next five years
06:48 is more than what has seen the last 30 years put together
06:50 from outsiders.
06:52 Wow.
06:52 OK.
06:53 OK.
06:54 And a bit of emotional factors attached,
06:56 because Uttar Pradesh people haven't--
06:58 or anybody with any lineage to Uttar Pradesh
07:00 hasn't quite invested, and now they
07:01 might see rational there.
07:02 But even aside of that.
07:03 Yes.
07:04 No, I think there is a very strong emotional appeal.
07:06 But the emotional appeal may have
07:08 been there for a long period of time.
07:09 But it is now getting backed with two things.
07:11 It is getting backed with an economic rationale,
07:14 and getting backed with the revival
07:15 of sort of cultural epicenters of India.
07:18 Which, again, coming back to the economic part of it,
07:20 means that anybody who's been taking money from the state
07:22 and moving outside now believes that it's
07:24 best to keep the money inside the state and see it multiply.
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13:32 We were talking to the Tamil Nadu minister,
13:35 and he was talking about how tourism in the state
13:37 is very high, simply because it's not necessarily people
13:39 coming from outside the way they are coming to Goa, or Kerala,
13:42 or Rajasthan, but it's the temple tourism which
13:44 is very high in Tamil Nadu.
13:45 And what you say might be echoing that.
13:47 Now tell us, since we have you, we'd
13:50 love to understand about your view on the real estate
13:54 cycle as well, both from a perspective of land, which
13:57 you are predominantly doing, but even otherwise,
13:59 because you've been forced to reckon with all these years.
14:03 Most people seem to suggest that we
14:05 are in the midst of a long up cycle in real estate.
14:13 You have seen multiple past cycles.
14:15 What's your belief about the current one,
14:17 which has been underway now for a couple of years?
14:20 What's your belief?
14:21 I think if you step back and see that there was almost a six
14:24 to seven year period where real estate was not necessarily
14:27 doing as well as it had done historically.
14:30 So I think what we've seen right now is largely
14:32 a catch up of those six or seven years of lower performance,
14:37 coming back and setting the sector back on par.
14:41 The general theory would be that the kind of economic growth
14:45 that is on and the propensity of people
14:47 to spend with the lowering of cost of borrowing
14:50 across the board for most companies
14:52 means that the participation of real estate
14:54 should grow substantially in line
14:57 with the sort of growth on the mortgage rates, et cetera.
15:00 So I would say that we are probably
15:01 at the early start of what should be a continuing
15:04 movement on real estate.
15:06 Now whether it is volume led or pricing led
15:08 will need to get discovered.
15:10 Pricing will definitely move in line
15:12 with inflation, which is reasonably closer
15:15 to double digits at this point of time
15:17 for real estate developers.
15:19 Whether it's able to move above that or not
15:21 will really depend from-- I would say there will be
15:23 a set of developers who will probably see price appreciation
15:25 beyond that based on the quality of development that they do.
15:28 But there should be volume growth across the board.
15:30 OK.
15:31 The other aspect that I keep on hearing
15:33 is that because the number of players
15:36 is getting concentrated, that automatically
15:39 means that the organized and the large players
15:42 will keep on seeing benefits.
15:44 Now some bit of that you would argue
15:46 could have played out already.
15:47 I would love to understand from you.
15:48 Do you think that that aspect itself
15:50 still has some way to go?
15:53 There was a phase where real estate consolidation
15:55 had become the buzzword.
15:57 And there were sort of weaker hands.
15:59 I think there were a lot of weaker developers
16:01 who were sort of moving out and stronger developers
16:03 were coming in because demand was getting concentrated.
16:05 I think that phase, to my knowledge,
16:08 has reasonably played out.
16:09 OK.
16:10 Now demand is across the board.
16:12 Maybe it's at different price points.
16:14 So the movement from here will be--
16:16 the bigger probably will get bigger,
16:18 but the smallest will also continue to exist.
16:20 OK.
16:21 My final question, Abhinandan.
16:23 We were reading a Collier's note in December
16:27 which spoke about the kind of uptick in demand
16:30 for commercial real estate, but concentrated
16:34 around the three southern cities--
16:36 Hyderabad, Bangalore, Chennai, maybe to an extent Pune.
16:39 But that was-- and to an extent NCR.
16:42 But that was about it.
16:44 MMR, for example, didn't have a very large commercial uptick
16:47 as per that note as well.
16:49 I would love to understand from you
16:50 because a lot of people are talking about how REITs,
16:53 commercial real estate, leasing, the power of 12%,
16:56 13% return might be big in India over the course
17:00 of the next few years as well.
17:02 Now, one, do you agree with that assessment
17:04 that leasing, REITs, commercial real estate could be big,
17:07 part one?
17:08 Part two, could it be concentrated
17:10 where the tech hubs are?
17:11 Or do you reckon events like what's
17:14 happened on 22nd Jan in Ayodhya or elsewhere
17:18 could actually see some bit of that moving
17:21 to the other parts of the country as well?
17:23 I think I'll break this down into two parts.
17:28 For a long time, India's population
17:31 generally has not invested into alternative assets.
17:33 So we've seen sort of fixation around three or four
17:35 kinds of asset categories.
17:37 Yield-based real estate buying has not
17:39 taken place for a long time.
17:40 But it is quite prominent now in the minds of most people.
17:43 It doesn't need to be that you're going to put, say,
17:45 a million or five crore rupees into a REIT.
17:48 People are wanting to participate, maybe
17:50 with a smaller ticket size also.
17:52 That, enabled with the recent SEBI thought process
17:55 around allowing REITs of 25 to 50 crores to start fructifying,
17:59 in my mind would mean that a lot of participation
18:02 will happen for that 10%, 12%, 13% yield.
18:05 You will see the quality of the commercial assets
18:07 also changing.
18:08 You'll see a lot more of hospitality play
18:10 also coming into becoming yield assets.
18:12 And people participating there, not necessarily
18:15 in the form of fractional ownership,
18:16 the way it is understood today, but in the form
18:18 of having an upside link to the change in the underlying asset.
18:22 So that will change quite substantially.
18:25 I think there will be a lot more 25, 50, 75, 100 crore
18:29 happening now than the larger ones happening
18:32 in terms of the participation from the larger population.
18:35 In terms of where the commercial hub will get concentrated,
18:39 I do believe it requires a lot of infrastructure creation,
18:42 which some of the sun states and Pune have done very, very well.
18:45 Unless the other epicenters of the country catch up
18:48 with the creation of that, it will
18:50 be difficult to keep pace with those four or five regions.
18:54 OK, what about-- last question, what about Mumbai?
18:56 MMR is seeing infra development for sure.
19:00 What happens here?
19:02 The pricing difference in MMR between residential
19:05 and commercial real estate is quite stark.
19:07 MMR also is probably the most-- it's got the highest price
19:10 point across all parts of the market
19:12 as compared to any other city.
19:13 Just in terms of economic rationale, in most places
19:17 it ends up that the supply of residential
19:21 is limited and needs to grow.
19:23 Commercial is not necessarily in line with the same.
19:26 So most developers in Mumbai necessarily
19:28 look at commercial as either completion of a township
19:33 or only in very, very select locations.
19:36 I would believe the growth in residential in Mumbai
19:38 would be stronger and faster as compared
19:40 to the growth of commercial.
19:42 OK, great.
19:44 Abirandan, thanks for joining us today.
19:46 Fantastic work in all that you've done in the recent past.
19:49 And thanks for sharing what could happen
19:51 towards the biggest news flow in town currently,
19:54 which is what's happening in Ayodhya.
19:56 Thank you for taking the time.
19:57 Thank you, Nilesh.
19:58 Thank you so much.
19:59 And viewers, thanks for tuning in.
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