- #BajajFinance declines after posting Q3 results
- What are the things shareholders consider going forward?
Get all your stock queries answered by our guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Nirav Chheda, AVP, Derivatives and Technical Research, Nirmal Bang Securities
Ashish Kapur, CEO Invest Shoppe
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- What are the things shareholders consider going forward?
Get all your stock queries answered by our guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Nirav Chheda, AVP, Derivatives and Technical Research, Nirmal Bang Securities
Ashish Kapur, CEO Invest Shoppe
_______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
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02:17 - Good morning and thanks so much for joining in.
02:30 This is NDTV Prophet, you're watching Ask Prophet.
02:33 My name is Alex Mathieu and with me is Smriti Chaudhary.
02:35 We'll take you through the next half an hour
02:37 and we'll talk about the next quarter results
02:39 and also of trade.
02:41 Before we start on this program, let me tell you,
02:44 the benchmark is currently trading
02:46 with cuts of about a 10th of a percent.
02:48 We'll get into the details in just a bit,
02:50 but before we do, let's listen in
02:52 to the management of Marico.
02:55 The Chief Executive Officer, Saugata Gupta,
02:57 is speaking about the third quarter results
03:00 and outlining the key factors that will drive the growth
03:02 for the company going forward.
03:03 Listen in.
03:06 - I think it has been low single digits
03:08 for the third consecutive quarter.
03:09 Having said that, I think this quarter
03:12 was slightly different in the sense
03:13 that we took a significant stock reduction in GT
03:18 so that they become viable for core growth.
03:21 And therefore, I think if we had not taken that correction,
03:24 that growth would have been 4%,
03:25 which was slightly better than last quarter.
03:28 Now, I think two things,
03:31 if you look at the last couple of quarters,
03:35 there was significant inflation,
03:37 which led to consumers, especially in rural,
03:42 either down-trading into smaller brands
03:45 or titrating consumption.
03:47 I think inflation is largely tapering off.
03:51 We also seeing most of the players,
03:53 including us, taking pricing corrections.
03:56 I think the government continues to invest significantly
04:00 in the rural segment.
04:02 So we believe that going forward,
04:05 especially from quarter one,
04:08 next financial year, rural volumes will definitely improve.
04:12 We are seeing at least the first sign,
04:13 especially in our core brand parachute
04:16 where off-takes have started picking up.
04:18 And then when the off-takes pick up,
04:20 obviously it is followed by second to end primary.
04:23 As you know that because of the stress,
04:25 a little bit of stress even in the trade,
04:28 the STRs, the stock holding at retail
04:31 also had gone down by three to four days.
04:34 That has also led to some of the lower volume growth,
04:37 but the off-take trends for the first time,
04:40 we are seeing reasonably encouraging off-take trends,
04:42 which should translate into better volume growth
04:45 as we move into the next quarters.
04:47 - Right, so as price cuts and risks arise,
04:51 as well as modest inflation in COPRA helps,
04:53 which you just mentioned,
04:55 could you give us some numbers on the volume growth
04:58 in Q4 as well as going ahead in FY25
05:03 in the core categories, that is parachute and sub-folder?
05:07 - I think the way to look at it is we expect
05:10 the volume growth to definitely improve.
05:13 And I think as we move, I think we will,
05:17 you will see definitely from quarter one,
05:20 next year volume growth moving from the low single digits
05:22 to slightly higher volume growth.
05:25 It's very difficult right now to give an outlook.
05:27 Having said that, I think we believe that
05:30 at least in our core business next year,
05:33 the volume growth will be definitely better.
05:36 Sephola, as you know, suffered from a period
05:39 of hyperinflation followed by hyperdeflation,
05:42 and we also took some conscious calls
05:43 to maintain threshold levels of margin.
05:46 We expect Sephola also to move into
05:49 a mid single digits volume growth next year.
05:52 Also the fact that there is no deflation
05:55 that will translate directly to revenue growth.
05:57 The other area where we believe
06:01 we will again accelerate growth this year,
06:03 we had to do some consolidation in our food business
06:07 to get our backend right,
06:09 especially our supply chain, our cost structure,
06:12 and also our stock freshness norms,
06:15 which we are now back and therefore food also
06:17 is expected to grow 20% plus,
06:20 and digital continues to grow.
06:21 So I think overall, there will be better volume growth
06:25 next year, and also as far as bottom line is concerned,
06:28 we would like to strive to deliver low to mid teens
06:32 bottom line growth next year.
06:34 That was the management of Marico
06:37 talking about the growth trajectory from here on.
06:40 But let's shift focus to Bajaj Finance.
06:43 It came out with its results yesterday
06:45 and kind of a mixed bag there, the profit rose.
06:48 However, it missed analyst estimates
06:51 because of the regulatory action
06:52 and more than expected provisioning.
06:54 The income rose and however,
06:57 there's concern around asset quality.
07:01 And even the management said that they have marginally
07:04 kind of decreasing the exposure in rural
07:07 and slightly in urban areas as well.
07:11 Kind of a mixed bag there,
07:12 we're seeing the street reacting sharply to it.
07:14 The stock is down around four and a half percent in trade.
07:18 Let me introduce you to the guests for today.
07:20 We have with us Mr. Ashish Kapoor of Investshop
07:23 and Nirav Chheda of Nirmal Bank Securities.
07:25 Welcome Nirav and Ashish on the show.
07:27 Ashish, I'd like to come to you first on Bajaj Finance.
07:32 We've seen the results.
07:34 There was a, the street reacted very positively
07:36 after the business update,
07:38 but kind of a big mixed bag in terms of the results
07:40 that came out.
07:41 How do you see going forward for Bajaj Finance,
07:45 especially ending this year?
07:49 - Well, I think, you know, what happens is that,
07:53 you know, every company reaches some sort of a plateau
07:59 at some stage in their growth.
08:02 And Bajaj Finance has reached,
08:05 I think that kind of plateau.
08:06 It still remains a fantastic, fabulous company
08:10 or near impossible to replicate this model.
08:12 So, and the consumer credit growth in India
08:17 is going to keep growing for many, many years.
08:20 That's also a no brainer.
08:22 So for any long-term investor who's bought at lower levels,
08:25 it still remains a very good stock to continue to hold to.
08:29 So one cannot be negative on the stock, you know,
08:32 but at the same time,
08:34 I think fresh buying should be avoided
08:37 because, you know, two reasons.
08:39 One is the company has become fairly big in size now
08:43 and to expect them to continue growing
08:47 at the kind of pace which they have done
08:49 over the last two decades, it is near impossible.
08:52 So therefore the discounting, the valuation is very high
08:56 and the kind of price earning multiple
09:00 and other, you know, other valuation parameters
09:05 are all on the very much higher side
09:07 than what it justifies,
09:11 given the fact that the company is already very big,
09:13 has a very solid base,
09:15 but cannot grow at the kind of rates
09:18 it has been growing over the last two decades.
09:20 So therefore the valuation has to correct,
09:24 to justify it to the level where it, you know,
09:27 can be, it can be come a buy.
09:30 So my best guess is that it will probably not come down much
09:33 because of, you know, it's a marquee status,
09:37 but it will not do much also for the near term.
09:41 I think at least for a year or so,
09:44 it could at best be sideways.
09:46 It could even go down a bit more,
09:48 but I think at best it will be sideways.
09:50 So not a great idea to buy even despite the fall
09:54 and despite the underperformance.
09:57 And the other thing is, one of course is size,
09:59 the other thing is that the regulator here,
10:04 and justifiably is not very comfortable
10:07 with such a large NBFC.
10:09 They obviously are putting, you know,
10:13 compliance hurdles on the company,
10:16 in which I think will continue.
10:18 My guess is that at some stage,
10:22 Bajaj Finance will have to change its structure
10:24 into either a bank or some other more regulated
10:27 kind of structure.
10:29 And till that, that itself will reduce its earnings growth.
10:32 So I think till the time the picture comes clear,
10:35 I think for the time being, it's not a great buy at all,
10:38 despite the fall.
10:40 - Okay.
10:41 - At best a hold, and for a long-term investor,
10:43 with three year plus horizon, it's definitely a hold,
10:46 but buying can definitely be deferred
10:47 till some more clarity comes
10:49 or the price falls further down.
10:52 - Got it, all right.
10:53 So that's the view on the fundamentals.
10:55 Nirav, quickly coming to you,
10:56 because we've got a viewer, Tanya,
10:58 who's writing in and asking about the one year timeframe,
11:02 which, so Aashi, you've spoken about the three year timeframe,
11:05 but based on the technicals,
11:07 based on the current market price,
11:09 would you suggest a fresh entry from a one year perspective?
11:12 - Yeah, hi everyone.
11:16 See, in terms of Bajaj Finance,
11:19 I don't think this is the right time to enter.
11:22 This stock is in a consolidation,
11:27 and its chart is much more like HDFC Bank and Kotak Bank,
11:33 where this consolidation is going on,
11:36 and I don't think this will end so soon.
11:41 Having said that, it has hit the upper band
11:43 of the consolidation, which is around that 8,000 levels.
11:46 Should come down now to the 6,500 to 6,200 band,
11:51 which is a very good level to again buy,
11:54 and that is when probably you can look to buy
11:57 for that one year perspective,
11:59 but the major real resistance year
12:02 is around the 8,000 levels.
12:04 Once on a closing basis, that is broken.
12:07 You might see good buying coming in,
12:10 in Bajaj Finance post the breakout,
12:12 and it can go toward that 9,500, 10,000 band,
12:17 probably even higher, but at this point,
12:19 I avoid the buying.
12:20 - Thank you, Nirav, for that.
12:24 I request our experts to keep the answers short.
12:27 We have a lot of questions pouring in.
12:29 Next one is from V.S. Mohan from Talcher.
12:31 They're talking about Yes Bank.
12:33 They have already bought shares at 31 rupees,
12:36 and that was two years ago.
12:37 They want to know if they should continue holding onto it,
12:40 or should they switch to some other stock within the sector?
12:44 Ashish, what would you suggest?
12:45 - Well, I think the answer would be
12:49 to switch to some other stock,
12:51 because Yes Bank, the capital base is now very huge.
12:55 It'll take a very, very long time
12:57 for the share to really move up.
12:59 The turnaround is certainly happening.
13:02 The performance is improving.
13:03 I think the books have got clean,
13:06 but I think it'll still take a long time
13:08 for this stock to start moving up
13:11 because of a very huge capital base.
13:14 So my idea would be to shift to some other stock.
13:19 I think within the banking space,
13:21 you could look at an IDFC first,
13:25 or if we're okay with a larger cap,
13:28 then of course there are many ideas,
13:29 including ICICI Bank,
13:31 which has had some period of underperformance
13:34 and now looks very ripe for a nice up move.
13:38 - Interesting.
13:39 Sticking with the banking space,
13:41 we've got a question coming in from Karthik
13:44 from Vishakhapatnam, but this is a short-term query.
13:47 IDBI Bank is a counter that he wants to know about.
13:49 So Nirav on the charts, how does it look?
13:51 - Yeah, see it's witnessed a very good move,
13:56 a good reversal is in place.
13:57 I believe even for short-term, you can buy this stock.
14:00 An important breakout has come in about the 80 levels.
14:04 You can keep a stock loss of around 78 for your longs.
14:07 Go long for a target of around 105 odd.
14:10 It can be achieved in about 10 to 15 days time.
14:15 - All right.
14:15 Next up, we have a question from Jayakrishnan
14:18 from Kozhikode.
14:19 They're talking about Dixon.
14:20 They've bought shares at 6,165, slightly elevated levels.
14:24 The current market price is around 5,900 rupees.
14:27 He wants to know if he should continue holding onto it
14:30 for the medium term.
14:32 Nirav on the charts, for the medium term,
14:34 would you suggest holding onto it?
14:36 - Definitely hold onto it.
14:39 A breakout was witnessed around 5,700 odd levels.
14:42 The stock went up, it has come down to retest the breakout.
14:45 So it's a good level to actually enter again.
14:47 So you can average a bit at current levels
14:49 or on dips up to 5,700 levels.
14:52 And hold on, I think 6,800 will be broken again.
14:56 You can get about 7,500 to 7,800 as a target
15:01 in the medium term perspective.
15:02 So hold on.
15:04 - Okay.
15:05 We have to slip into a very quick break.
15:07 And as we do, I'm gonna try and get Smriti
15:09 to say Kozhikode the right way.
15:12 We'll be back before you know it
15:13 and we're gonna take queries after that.
15:14 So do stay tuned.
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18:12 - Welcome back, you're watching Ask Prophet
18:17 and it's Kory Kode.
18:18 (laughing)
18:19 - There you go.
18:20 - Kartik, I've corrected myself and it's Kory Kode
18:23 but let's move on to the next one.
18:25 We have a question from Sri
18:27 and he's writing in from Kerala.
18:30 He's talking about Varun Beverages and Prestige.
18:32 He's already bought the shares at 1100 levels,
18:35 both of the shares.
18:36 And he wants to know if he should accumulate
18:39 these two.
18:40 Now, Ashish, what would you suggest?
18:42 Would you suggest accumulating both of them
18:45 based on the current market conditions
18:47 for both the stocks?
18:48 - Varun Beverages, certainly yes.
18:52 I think very, very good growth story
18:55 and I think it will continue to doing well
18:57 at least for a few more years.
18:59 So Varun Beverages is definitely a very great idea.
19:02 Prestige, I think is already the sector
19:05 and even the stock has moved quite a bit
19:08 and I think I wouldn't recommend
19:12 buying more at these levels.
19:14 You could continue to hold on
19:15 but I don't think we should add more at these levels.
19:18 - All right.
19:19 And by the way, viewers,
19:22 if you've got tough words to say in Punjabi
19:24 or any other language, do let us know.
19:26 I happen to say, you know how to say Kory Kode
19:29 the right way.
19:30 Let's talk about Tata Steel as well as Borosil.
19:33 We've got Rakesh from Ghaziabad who's writing in
19:35 and he's bought both of these counters.
19:37 Tata Steel at levels of 110
19:41 and Borosil at levels of 220.
19:44 He's looking for a view for at least one year.
19:47 So let me go across to Nirav on the charts.
19:49 How do these two counters look?
19:51 - See, Borosil seems like he's been holding on
19:55 for the last three, four years
19:57 and the overall pattern is positive.
19:59 Two-year consolidation is over.
20:01 The stock has broken out above that 500 odd levels
20:04 and I believe he can continue to hold on.
20:07 This stock is now slated to move up towards
20:09 that 850-900 levels, probably even higher.
20:12 So hold on to your position.
20:15 Your stop loss now should be 410 on a trading basis.
20:20 For Tata Steel, again, you know,
20:22 a very similar story to Borosil.
20:24 Two-year consolidation is over.
20:25 It has broken out above important resistance of 120.
20:29 I believe now the stock will break above
20:31 all-time highs as well
20:32 and probably move up towards that 180-200 levels.
20:35 So from that one-year perspective,
20:37 you are in the right stocks.
20:39 Continue to hold them.
20:41 Your stop loss for Tata Steel would be around 120.
20:44 - All right.
20:45 Next up, we have a question from Raghuram Patro
20:47 from Bhubaneswar.
20:48 They're talking about Patel Engineering,
20:50 that they've bought the shares at 55 levels.
20:52 Now the shares is already a multi-bagger.
20:55 It has given about 3x returns in the last one year itself.
20:59 Ashish, do you have coverage on this one?
21:02 And is there more upside to this one, this stock?
21:05 - Okay. - All right.
21:10 We'll go to Nirav.
21:12 Nirav, we've already seen a massive upside
21:15 in this stock in the last one year.
21:16 How does it look on the charts?
21:18 - Yeah, see, on the charts, there's no doubt, you know,
21:23 that a reversal is in place.
21:26 But it has now come near the resistance area.
21:29 And that resistance is a multi-year resistance
21:32 at around 67, 75 band.
21:35 Once that is broken, only then you'll see, you know,
21:38 further buying coming in.
21:40 So at this point of time, I would suggest
21:42 if you're holding on from lower level,
21:44 this could be a good area to book profits.
21:46 Once 75 level is broken above,
21:49 only then, you know, buy again and buy very aggressively
21:53 and this stock will then again fly up towards 125, 140 band.
21:57 So until then, just book profits and continue to watch.
22:01 - Okay.
22:02 Sai Krishna has bought PNB Housing Finance
22:05 at slightly elevated levels, 844 thereabouts.
22:08 And the share price is currently at 788 or thereabouts.
22:12 It's down about four-tenths of a percent.
22:14 But it's had a decent six months.
22:16 It's gained about 24% or thereabouts.
22:18 Ashish, on the fundamentals, would you hold on to this one
22:21 or would you switch to some of the banking names
22:23 that you had suggested earlier?
22:25 - I would hold on to it.
22:28 I think the company should do well going forward
22:31 and I think the stock price should also reflect that.
22:35 So I think there's no issue in this.
22:37 I think continue to hold on.
22:39 - All right.
22:40 Next up, we're talking about Chemcon Specialty Chemicals.
22:43 Shriv Kumar from Dubai has already bought in the shares
22:46 at 297, that's the average price.
22:49 Should they continue holding on to this one?
22:51 Now we've seen a lot of uncertainty
22:53 within the specialty chemicals sector.
22:55 Ashish, would you suggest holding on to this
22:57 for the longer term?
22:58 - Well, frankly, I haven't tracked this one also,
23:02 so I wouldn't--
23:03 - Okay, all right.
23:04 We'll take it to Nirav then.
23:05 Nirav, how does Chemcon Specialty look on the charts?
23:09 - Yeah.
23:11 See, I believe this stock hasn't done much
23:15 and I don't see much volume as well.
23:18 So better to avoid this stock, exit the counter
23:22 and probably go into something, you know,
23:25 a chemical stock which is doing pretty well
23:28 and above all-time highs.
23:30 So RCF is something I would suggest to move into.
23:34 Sell this one and buy RCF.
23:36 It can probably double in the next six to 12 months.
23:40 - The next one, Ashish, is on NELCO.
23:43 This is N-E-L-C-O.
23:45 And we've got a viewer, Sandhya from Hyderabad,
23:47 who has bought it levels of 871,
23:50 asking whether to hold the stock.
23:52 What's your view?
23:53 Do you have coverage?
23:54 - Yeah, I have tracked this company.
23:57 I think it's a very solid story
23:59 and I don't see any reason why you should be worried
24:03 about a small fall.
24:04 I think continue to hold down too.
24:05 I think you will do very well going forward.
24:08 - All right.
24:09 Next up, this one's from Purvan
24:11 and they're talking about GE Shipping.
24:14 That's a great Eastern shipping company.
24:17 Now he has already bought the stock at 300 levels.
24:20 The current price is around over 1000 rupees,
24:23 so a considerable profit there.
24:25 But they see a little bit of uncertainty around shipping.
24:28 We're seeing some conflict related to Red Sea as well.
24:32 Ashish, would you suggest holding onto this one
24:36 or is it a good time to exit now?
24:38 - Well, I think conflicts will keep coming and going.
24:42 I think the world and the trade is not going to really
24:47 see a major dent because of these conflicts.
24:49 I think it'll keep carrying on.
24:50 It was always like this even in the past.
24:53 So I don't see if you're a long-term,
24:54 obviously you're a long-term investor,
24:56 you've held this for many years.
24:57 So I don't see any reason to worry,
25:00 continue to hold onto.
25:02 As long as you have the long-term holding period,
25:05 I don't see any reason to worry in this stock.
25:07 - Okay, Parveen, hopefully that answers your question.
25:10 LIC is the next counter we're looking at.
25:12 We've got Murlidharan from Madikpakkam,
25:17 see there you're testing my ability to say these words, right?
25:21 From Chennai.
25:22 And he's asking about whether or not
25:24 LIC can head up to 2000 levels.
25:27 Will it be a doubler?
25:29 I mean, the question is really about
25:32 what the government's plan also is going to be
25:34 about this particular counter.
25:36 Float is currently not very high, right, Ashish?
25:38 But the counter has gained quite substantially.
25:40 It's trading very comfortably above 900 at 950 or thereabouts.
25:45 Would you suggest holding on
25:46 and what the probability of it hitting 2000
25:50 based on the fundamentals?
25:52 - Well, certainly hold on.
25:54 And I think insurance is a sector
25:57 which has underperformed, including LIC for some time.
26:01 I mean, I think, yes, it has come up from 600 levels,
26:04 but this is very close to the IPO price.
26:08 So an IPO investor is still not making money in this.
26:12 I think the outlook is very encouraging
26:15 because insurance has a long way to go here.
26:18 Penetration has to increase
26:19 and LIC is a market leader by a huge, huge margin.
26:23 So while 2000 may look very stretched kind of a target,
26:29 but anyway, 1500 is a target,
26:31 which I also have for one year, one and a half year kind of holding.
26:36 And 2000 is also not something which is difficult to perceive.
26:40 So I think about two, two and a half years,
26:42 I think we should, in my opinion,
26:44 we could see a level of around 2000 in this.
26:48 - All right.
26:49 Next up, we have a question from Dr. Santosh Bhardwaj from Lucknow.
26:54 They're talking about Paracable,
26:55 which is Paramount Communications,
26:57 and they bought the stock at 92.
26:59 Now Nirav, should they continue holding onto this one?
27:02 It's trading around 111 levels.
27:04 - Oh yes, continue to hold on.
27:07 It's a multi-year,
27:08 but this is the first time this stock went above 70 levels post 2007.
27:14 So whenever such things happen,
27:17 the stock generally moves up very aggressively
27:20 because it has remained in a range for about 15 years.
27:24 So I believe this stock will more than double from here,
27:28 continue to hold on.
27:29 You can keep a trading stop loss now of about 80 for your loans.
27:34 - Got it.
27:35 Nirav, Ashish, thank you so much for joining in.
27:37 We're completely out of time on this particular edition.
27:39 And thanks so much for answering all the questions you did.
27:41 Viewers, if we missed you out, it wasn't intentional.
27:45 Of course, we ran out of time.
27:46 And some of you, I've told you we will take tomorrow.
27:49 We'll be back tomorrow at 1130.
27:51 In the meanwhile, lots of coverage on markets,
27:53 business and everything else over the course of the day.
27:55 You'll find all of that right here on NDTV Profit.
27:58 Do stay tuned.
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