Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast: the dangers of moving up in the NFL Draft, Silver and Black money year players
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00:00 Hi everybody, this is Hondo Carpenter from Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation Las Vegas
00:06 Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:08 It's great to have you all with us today.
00:10 Thank you for joining us.
00:11 I want to address two big issues in today's podcast, and I think it's really important.
00:18 And the first one we're going to talk about, or the first one I'm going to tell you we're
00:23 going to talk about, is looking at this year's money players.
00:28 Now, if you're not familiar with that term, maybe you're new to the podcast or new to
00:32 my reporting, in the NFL you have expectations of rookies, obviously.
00:38 And where that rookie is selected, it raises expectations of performance, which is fair
00:45 and totally germane.
00:48 But your first year, you have expectations, but to reasonable people and to people around
00:53 the world of professional football, those are tempered based on the player and the situation.
01:01 So for example, when Dave Ziegler and Josh McDaniels made the decision to take Tyree
01:07 Wilson, they looked at last year as getting him healthy.
01:13 They knew he was not going to be healthy at the beginning, and I told you all of that.
01:16 That's what I love about the digital age.
01:18 You can go back and see all the podcasts and reporting back from around the draft.
01:23 But the year for him was hoping at the end of the year he would be much healthier and
01:29 starting to flash.
01:30 They had people like Malcolm Coons, who they hoped to take a step because it was his money
01:34 year and Chandler Jones.
01:36 Now we all know how the year went out and ended, but it's obviously expectation based
01:42 upon where, but also expectations on player health, whatever.
01:48 Year two is when you want to see a little bit of consistency.
01:53 You want to start to see again, the expectations start where the players picked or the circumstance.
01:59 But in year two, you want to start to see some more contributions, seeing some type
02:05 of stepping up.
02:07 But in year three, it's what they call the money year.
02:10 It is the year where, okay, after this year, we pretty much know what we got in a guy.
02:17 And did he step up and earn his money, meaning the vision towards his second contract?
02:25 That's why it's called the money year.
02:26 So we're going to look at those players, not the reserve futures or those that are on the
02:30 injured list.
02:31 We're going to look just at the roster.
02:34 And we'll come back and talk about those other players at another time.
02:37 But we're going to talk about the money players today.
02:40 But we're going to start with an article that was written yesterday by Zeke Trezevant, who
02:45 does a tremendous job, absolutely tremendous job for us here at Sports Illustrated, Fannation,
02:51 Las Vegas Raiders, Insider Podcast, and our Raiders Today coverage.
02:57 Does a terrific job.
02:58 And it was about cautioning Raiders about moving up for a quarterback.
03:05 Now, nothing stirs conversation like quarterback talk in the National Football League.
03:13 And I accept that.
03:14 That's completely fair.
03:17 It's the most important position in football.
03:20 But when you set yourself aside from it emotionally, and you look at it purely tactically, and
03:31 you look at it for what it is as a position, then you begin to look at analytics and you
03:38 begin to look at research.
03:41 It begins to tell you a story.
03:44 It begins to paint for you a picture.
03:48 And I want to cite some research done.
03:53 This is by Jim Sargent from the USA Today.
04:02 This article was written back in April of '23.
04:06 And it went all the way back to the '99 draft.
04:09 And his research came out and said 60% of first-round quarterbacks turned out not being
04:16 a long-term answer for their team.
04:20 Other research, such as QB List, says that less than 50% of first-round quarterbacks
04:27 ever hit a simple benchmark of 4,000 yards or 24 TDs.
04:32 Less than 50%.
04:33 And again, that matches the 60% that Sargent talked about.
04:42 You can certainly make an argument.
04:45 There have been multiple great poor quarterbacks picked in the first round.
04:51 Nobody is denying that because you'd be a fool to do it.
04:55 But you could also make the argument that 60% or certainly less than 50% don't turn
05:04 out to be a long-term answer.
05:09 And so I want to go back.
05:11 You may remember the inventor of the modern draft board was a man named Henry "Hank" Bullough.
05:18 Talked about him in the past.
05:21 He was the defensive coordinator when Johnny Unitas' Colts won the Super Bowl.
05:29 He went on, invented the draft board, and was the head coach of the Buffalo Bills.
05:33 He invented the draft board.
05:36 And Hank often-- by the way, Hank happened to be a very close personal friend of mine.
05:43 I'm still very close to his children and his grandchildren.
05:50 You may remember his grandson, Riley, back when the Buccaneers were on HBO's Hard Knocks.
05:59 He was the guy that was called Joe Dundurt, the long-haired linebacker.
06:03 His grandson, Max Bullough, tremendous college linebacker, played in the NFL, who's now coach
06:10 at Notre Dame, on the staff at Notre Dame, a defensive coach.
06:16 So when you look at what Hank started and what has now become perfected in the NFL,
06:27 you begin to notice value.
06:31 Now I have shared this with you before, and I'll share it with you again.
06:35 The best teams aren't wagering their future.
06:42 Now hear me out, because this is going to come around.
06:45 I'm not against picking a quarterback in the first round.
06:48 So please hear this out.
06:51 But there's a reason.
06:52 I mentioned to you before, I had a general manager say to me one time, there's a reason
06:56 certain teams are always picking at the top.
06:59 It's because they're not good drafters.
07:03 The best teams understand the value of the draft, and I can't wage my future.
07:10 So what happens is you see a lot of people-- we got to move up and get a quarterback, got
07:14 to move up and get a quarterback, got to move up and get a-- well, there's no guarantee
07:17 that when you move up, that quarterback is going to possess value.
07:21 Remember, it's less than 50%.
07:27 And the Sargent research, it's 60% of quarterbacks.
07:30 I'll read it to you again.
07:34 60% of first round quarterbacks aren't the long term answer for their team that picks
07:38 them.
07:40 So it's not just moving up.
07:46 It's not a magic pill.
07:47 In fact, statistics tell you a first round quarterback has a better percentage chance
07:54 of being a failure than being a success.
08:01 So when you move up, what you're doing is you're giving away your future to move up
08:08 for something that's a crapshoot.
08:10 Now, not against it, but you have to know the guy I'm getting is a can't miss.
08:22 If I'm willing to trade my future for my now, I have better be sold.
08:29 Now, at this moment, right now, I don't believe Tom Telesco and Antonio Pierce have made a
08:37 decision about is there anybody worth mortgaging the future?
08:43 Do I think there are guys that they absolutely have their eyes on?
08:46 100%.
08:48 That's their job to constantly be evaluating.
08:52 Is this person worth my future?
08:55 If I don't think I can get them at 13, what will it cost me to move up?
09:03 And then how sure am I?
09:05 Because you don't get a whole lot of chances to make a second pick like that.
09:15 That's reality.
09:17 And so if you look, so for example, I don't cover college football.
09:24 Do I watch it?
09:25 Sure I do.
09:26 But I don't cover it enough to there are some guys that I noticed and I'm just now starting
09:32 to watch film on some guys.
09:35 But most of my opinions on guys are having just watched, I haven't dug enough.
09:43 But what I do pay attention to is obviously the Raiders are going to do all their due
09:48 diligence.
09:49 We know that.
09:50 But what I do pay attention to is not my opinion.
09:55 What am I hearing from scouts?
09:57 What am I hearing from other NFL teams and analysts that I trust?
10:00 Now remember, we're going to be bringing somebody on who professionally is an analyst that looks
10:08 at quarterbacks to get their opinions on things.
10:13 So let's talk about Caleb Williams.
10:14 And I'm only going to use Caleb just for the sake of this argument.
10:20 I am hearing from NFL people, there are major concerns.
10:26 Now I was hearing this and I've been sharing this with you going back into the season.
10:35 I've not seen enough from Caleb to make that decision.
10:37 That's not Hondo's opinion.
10:39 That's what I've heard from multiple different people.
10:42 Number one.
10:43 Number two, you also know that it's the football season and there are some people who purposely
10:48 disseminate improper information.
10:52 That's factual.
10:54 So I rely on people who I trust, people who have given me great information in the past,
11:01 and people who I believe are honorable and not simply trying to sway narrative.
11:12 So when I talk to people like that and I'm hearing concerns about Caleb Williams, I share
11:17 that with you.
11:19 I don't have them yet.
11:20 I haven't spent enough time.
11:22 I will.
11:24 But I still trust them.
11:26 Since exponentially more than me.
11:30 Do I trust Antonio Pierce and Tom Telesco?
11:35 I trust any general manager and coach at this level to have a higher opinion than me.
11:39 And they still only get 40% correct.
11:45 So then not only do I listen to people that I respect, I look at people who have a track
11:49 record of being analytically correct.
11:52 I have one friend who's a scout that's been a part of a couple of organizations that have
11:58 drafted quarterbacks very well.
12:00 He was very high on the quarterbacks selected by his team.
12:08 The two that he's been a part of.
12:11 Who gave me his information before the draft.
12:15 I listen to them.
12:16 Why?
12:17 Track record of success.
12:18 I have other scouts that have been very successful with running backs.
12:22 I have other scouts that have been very successful with linemen.
12:25 I listen to those people.
12:27 And so sometimes there is the narrative, oh, we got to move up to get this quarterback.
12:34 And I think it's imperative to be to show discipline and say, okay, do we?
12:39 Okay, first you have to make the decision.
12:41 Do you need a quarterback?
12:42 Well, the Raiders do.
12:43 Okay, you say, well, you're minimizing Aiden.
12:47 No, I'm not.
12:48 You got to have three quarterbacks.
12:50 In the modern NFL.
12:52 You have to.
12:55 And Aiden O'Connell started a bunch of games, finishes his last five games, I think with
13:01 nine touchdowns, one interception.
13:02 I know it was eight touchdowns, zero interception his last four.
13:07 Okay, those are legitimate.
13:11 I've said before, I have seen a lot from Aiden O'Connell that makes me think he can be a
13:17 QB one, a long-term QB one.
13:22 I have seen some things that would say, okay, he's got to develop here before I think he
13:27 is a QB one.
13:30 You're claiming that he's Ken Stabler.
13:33 First of all, I'm not claiming very many people are.
13:36 That guy was phenomenal.
13:39 But has he shown you enough that he still deserves for a chance to compete?
13:43 Absolutely.
13:44 Absolutely.
13:45 He's earned that.
13:47 And I don't think you give a rookie anything.
13:49 So if the Raiders go pick a rookie, and I don't care who the rookie is, I think they
13:55 go into camp second on the depth chart, no matter where they're picked or wherever.
14:00 What if the Raiders go make a big trade?
14:04 Let's talk about some of those names that are out there as a possibility.
14:07 Russell Wilson was playing excellent last year.
14:12 Excellent last year for the Broncos.
14:15 And Sean Payton is obviously all appearances going to let him go.
14:20 That name has been ballied about.
14:22 Do the Raiders go get him?
14:25 You can get him at a very reduced rate, a very cat-friendly rate.
14:31 You can sell him on a chance to compete against the Broncos twice.
14:36 And you bring that guy in who was playing at a high level, tremendous man, great character,
14:42 let him mentor Aiden, then maybe go select another quarterback in the later rounds to
14:47 have some mobility to develop.
14:49 That's an option.
14:52 Baker Mayfield is an option.
14:54 Kirk Cousins is an option.
14:57 Trading for a Justin Fields with two years left on his rookie deal.
15:04 That's a significant option.
15:07 So if you don't say, "Okay, listen, I think there's a guy here that Tom Tolesko and AP
15:16 said, 'Okay, we're willing to roll our careers on.'"
15:20 Because if they move up, which is a possibility, they're gambling with their future.
15:31 Or do we like the idea that we think we've seen enough from Aiden to let him develop?
15:36 Go get a rookie, go get a veteran.
15:39 That's an option.
15:40 It's a total option.
15:43 I shared with you before about Dave Ziegler last year in the draft threw up to Josh McDaniels.
15:51 What about we keep Jarrett Stidham?
15:54 What about we go sign Jacoby Brissett and then go get a rookie?
16:00 That was an option.
16:02 There are lots of different options.
16:04 And when you say, "Listen, the analytics and the research say getting a guy at one is not
16:12 a guarantee at all.
16:13 In fact, it's less than a guarantee."
16:15 Doesn't mean that you don't do it.
16:18 It just means now where your scouting staff, your general manager, your quarterback have
16:24 to come into a big unity and say, "Are we willing to risk the future?"
16:28 Because we all know in the NFL, if you don't have the guy at quarterback, if you don't
16:33 have that guy, you don't have a guy.
16:35 I've shared this with you many times.
16:37 I'll share it again.
16:38 I had an NFL general manager tell me this.
16:40 Eight teams in the NFL are 100% convinced their quarterback can go win them a Super
16:45 Bowl.
16:46 Eight teams think their quarterback might be able to go win them the Super Bowl.
16:50 The other 16 are wishing that they were one of the 16 or one of really the top eight.
16:57 That's where you have to trust your own eyes as a scout and general manager.
17:03 Tom Salas.
17:04 [inaudible]
17:17 The article simply was saying, "You better tap the brakes a little bit.
17:22 Find out what you have."
17:25 I only used Caleb Williams because people are in love with his athletic talent.
17:29 Let me tell you, the few times I have watched him, he has been an incredible talent.
17:36 There were a lot of people that thought that about a lot of other quarterbacks over the
17:39 years who didn't pan out, who turned out being, "Eh."
17:49 Before you gamble away your future, before you throw it away, you better be really sure
17:58 because if you go all in on your quarterback today and they're not it, not only have you
18:04 set your franchise backwards, but now just for the immediate, you've now sacrificed your
18:15 future because draft picks are precious.
18:19 Now, I come from the school, draft picks are precious and you can trade them or use them
18:29 as collateral to go get the best options, but you better be convinced you have the most
18:37 information.
18:40 I talked with a general manager one time who said to me, his owner was really good about
18:47 letting him do his job, but before he gave away draft picks, he had to sit down with
18:52 his owner every time and explain, "Here's the risk evaluation.
18:56 Here's what we're giving up.
18:58 Here's an overall."
18:59 He said to me, "My owner," and this is a very successful franchise, "My owner values draft
19:08 picks like babies."
19:11 He spends more time looking at where we failed in a draft than almost where we've succeeded.
19:16 I thought that was a good point.
19:20 That is where the mindset of the best franchises are.
19:25 If I give up draft picks, I don't care if it's for a quarterback, if I give up draft
19:30 picks, am I giving up my future to pull it forward and buy my present?
19:41 How confident am I?
19:44 Very few guys get an opportunity to sell their future, to buy their present, and fail and
19:51 get another opportunity to do it.
19:54 Now let's look at San Francisco.
19:58 They go pick Trey Lance.
20:00 There are a lot of people that thought Trey Lance was going to be a great quarterback,
20:04 but when Trey Lance came out, I heard from multiple people, "Boy, he's talented.
20:09 He's super talented."
20:11 But the level of competition is a concern, which there have been great quarterbacks who've
20:15 come from lesser competition, but it was at the time a concern.
20:21 They were concerned at a lack of playing time.
20:24 I mean, Bill Parcells was adamant.
20:27 He didn't want a quarterback who hadn't thrown, and I don't remember the number.
20:31 I'll get it for you the next time, but for some reason, I think it was 2,500 passes.
20:36 Next time John shops on, we'll talk about it.
20:39 But he wanted a guy with a ton of experience because he believed that that minimizes the
20:44 risk.
20:47 I agree with Bill on that.
20:49 So there were a lot of people.
20:52 So they go pick Trey Lance and then pick Brock Purdy as Mr. Irrelevant.
20:55 Brock ended up being the guy.
20:57 I think Brock Purdy takes a ton of criticism now that if he had been picked three overall,
21:02 people would be praising him.
21:04 But because he was Mr. Irrelevant, they dump on him because of the mindset.
21:09 So again, it is important when you look at the quarterback position to understand its
21:17 value and its history, its value and its history, and then to be able to go out and ascertain,
21:27 "Okay, is this risk worth it?
21:30 Is this player worth it?
21:33 Is what I'm willing to give up worth it?"
21:38 And that's a big risk.
21:41 And when you're the Raiders and you're close, okay, how many great offensive linemen have
21:47 they let go by?
21:50 How many great defensive players have they let go by?
21:56 Or any team for that matter.
21:58 And you build on the lines, you build there, and then you go find your quarterback.
22:08 And I think it's fascinating.
22:09 It's going to be interesting to watch.
22:11 All right, now let's talk about some money players.
22:14 Number one, Zemir White, running back.
22:16 I think Zeke showed a lot this year, but next year is the year where expectations, where
22:23 he steps up.
22:24 I think there's a chance, obviously, that Josh Jacobs comes back.
22:27 I know that Antonio Pierce wants him, but even then you still want to begin to see the
22:32 transition to Zeke more.
22:35 So it's going to be fascinating to watch with Zeke.
22:37 I'm a buyer on Zeke.
22:39 Zeke, as you guys may remember last offseason, I was a big buyer on Koonce.
22:44 I'm a big buyer on Zeke.
22:45 I like him.
22:46 I like his style.
22:48 I like his personality.
22:50 I like who he is as a man.
22:52 I'm buying in on Zeke, but he's a guy coming into his money here.
22:56 The Raiders got to get him more reps next year.
22:59 Next defensive tackle, Matthew Butler.
23:01 Played in two games in '23, but he hasn't really demonstrated anything.
23:09 If he makes the roster in 2024, it's a huge money year for him.
23:16 I like Matthew Butler.
23:18 This isn't anything personal, but I'm not a buyer.
23:22 We just haven't seen a lot from him.
23:24 Could he do that?
23:25 But in the money years, when he wants to do it.
23:28 Next Jack Jones.
23:31 Total buyer on Jack Jones.
23:33 This guy played like an all pro last year under the tutelage with the leadership of
23:38 Patrick Graham and Antonio Pierce.
23:43 I think Antonio Pierce had the relationship with him going back to high school, so he
23:47 was able to keep him focused.
23:53 The leadership of Patrick Graham was phenomenal in his life.
23:57 But Jack Jones and Zemir White, two of our first three money guys, I'm a buyer.
24:02 I believe in those guys, both of them.
24:05 Then you come to Luke Masterson, the linebacker out of Wake Forest coming into his money year.
24:10 I'm a big buyer on Masterson.
24:12 I like him a lot.
24:15 I like him personally a lot.
24:18 Just his style.
24:20 Again, him and Zemir, two guys quiet, just go about their business, do their job.
24:27 He has shown a lot of flashes, a lot.
24:29 Now Divine Diablo is older than him, and him and Spillane really came on.
24:36 But Luke did a lot too.
24:38 He's a Swiss Army knife guy.
24:40 I think he has a shot at being the next Robert Spillane, but I like Masterson and I'm buying
24:46 on him in a money year.
24:48 Thayer Mumford, this is a guy that's gotten plenty of opportunity, the offensive tackle.
24:56 I know last year, their desire was for him to beat out Jermaine Illuminor, and he didn't.
25:03 Jermaine held him off.
25:06 To Jermaine's credit, a lot of people felt like Jermaine deserved a bigger contract than
25:12 what he got, but he was there and it was what it was.
25:16 They were hoping Thayer would come along.
25:18 Again, I think Thayer has a world of potential.
25:21 I really like him.
25:23 I think he's a guy, but this is the money year.
25:28 I think the Raiders are spending a long, hard look at drafting a right tackle.
25:32 In fact, I know they are.
25:34 And so this is going to be a year where they know what they're going to get with Jermaine
25:38 Illuminor and the head coach is a big Jermaine Illuminor guy.
25:42 This is going to be Thayer's opportunity now.
25:45 He's got to step up and earn it.
25:46 I think he clearly has the talent.
25:48 I like him personally.
25:49 I like him professionally.
25:50 It's going to be interesting to watch what he does.
25:55 Then Dylan Parham, he's already a money guy.
26:00 Came in, started from day one.
26:01 This was the first pick by Dave Ziegler and Champ Kelly.
26:03 It was a great pick.
26:04 I mean, you can make the argument that Devontae was a pick, but we all know he wasn't.
26:10 But Dylan Parham has been a stud.
26:11 He set himself up for a long-term extension.
26:17 And this is a guy coming into his money year where he's already had two money years in
26:21 a row.
26:22 He way outperformed his rookie year, way outperformed sophomore year, and now coming into his third
26:29 year, he's an anchor on the offensive line.
26:31 A guy you trust, a guy you believe in.
26:34 He's been everything that you would hope or wanted him to be.
26:38 Another one is safety, Isaiah Palamal.
26:40 This is a guy who's shown a lot of flashes.
26:44 I am a buyer on this kid.
26:48 I think he has the potential to be extremely good, extremely good.
26:54 Now, he reminds me a lot.
26:57 That's not true.
26:58 He's similar to Koonce, flying under the radar a little bit.
27:02 Koonce was flying under the radar more, but look what he did in his sophomore campaign.
27:08 Excuse me, his money year campaign.
27:13 Last half of the year, he's one of the best, and now he's set himself up for big money.
27:18 Same way with Palamal.
27:19 I think he's got the shot here.
27:21 I really do.
27:23 I really do.
27:25 Now, last one I want to talk to you about is DJ Turner.
27:33 I know you're thinking about other names.
27:34 I'm going to get to those.
27:35 This is just for today.
27:37 What about DJ Turner?
27:39 He's a wide receiver who's done some things.
27:44 I don't think he's proven that the Raiders can live without him, like Butler, but he's
27:50 shown some things.
27:52 Now he's going to have to shine out in mini camp, going to have to shine out in OTAs if
27:56 he's there, but this is why it's called a money year.
28:00 He's going to have to make some money this year, going to have to go prove some things.
28:05 Now, there are other guys.
28:06 This is not an exhaustive list.
28:08 I'm going to get into those.
28:09 Those are just the first group I want to talk about.
28:12 Thanks everybody for tuning in today for Sports Illustrated's Fandation, Las Vegas Raiders
28:17 Insider Podcast, part of the Fans First Sports Network.
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