IMF Revises India's GDP Growth Forecast To 6.7% | All You Need To Know | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

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00:00 (upbeat music)

00:02 (upbeat music)

00:05 (upbeat music)

00:07 (upbeat music)

00:10 Good morning, and thanks so much for tuning in.

00:39 This is NDTV Profit and my name is Alex Mathew.

00:41 You're watching All You Need to Know.

00:43 Let's get to the headlines.

00:45 IMF upgrades India's GDP growth forecast to 6.7% as part of a global growth upgrade.

00:51 The fund also sees China's growth picking up.

00:55 US markets trade mixed amid caution ahead of the Fed outcome.

01:00 Shares of Alphabet as well as Microsoft slide on results.

01:03 The Dow, however, notches a second straight record close.

01:08 Asian markets follow suit.

01:10 Early risers open mixed as China and Australia await key economic data.

01:16 Tata Consultancy Services signs a new 15-year deal with Aviva PLC to service its 5.5 million

01:22 customers.

01:23 The deal could be worth over $1 billion.

01:27 Swiggy's losses increase to over Rs 4,000 crore despite a 45% surge in revenue.

01:36 First up, it's good news for India's economy.

01:39 A day before the Union Budget, the International Monetary Fund has revised its growth forecast

01:46 to 6.7% in the current financial year.

01:49 That's 40 basis points higher than its previous forecast.

01:53 The IMF has also revised the forecast for FY25 and FY26 by 20 basis points each and

02:00 now projects the GDP to grow 6.5% in both of those financial years.

02:07 In international news, US markets closed mixed as investors await the first interest rate

02:12 decision of 2024.

02:13 The Dow notched a second straight record close.

02:16 While the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell about 0.06%, its flat more or less and about 7.1%

02:26 respectively.

02:27 Asian markets have followed suit with the early rises in trade mixed.

02:31 In fact, right now you're seeing red across the board.

02:34 The Nikkei 225 trading with cuts of about 0.7% and Shanghai also losing ground.

02:40 Narrow cuts for the Hang Seng as we speak.

02:43 In Japan, you've seen a rebound in factory output in December though it was still below

02:49 the consensus estimates.

02:51 Let's turn to the Indian equity markets and talk about the latest skews from the F&O space.

02:56 You've seen a lot of chop and churn over the last few sessions.

03:00 In fact, you saw a bit of selling in trade yesterday.

03:02 Agam is here to break down the latest data for you.

03:06 Agam, I guess caution is what is prevailing across the board globally.

03:13 What are the cues heading into trade today for us?

03:15 Right.

03:16 Again, Alex, it's not going to be a very easy market trade as you've already suggested.

03:20 It has been a choppy one over the past few weeks and well, there's a likelihood that

03:25 choppiness could come through until we finally have the outcome of the Voton account that

03:29 comes up tomorrow.

03:31 Of course, the fact that we do have weekly expiry is now coming in doesn't really help,

03:37 but we certainly did have a lot of traction when it comes to markets yesterday.

03:41 And even as the index, that is the Nifty, fell by around 1%, we saw a lot of traders

03:46 take off their positions.

03:47 There was indicated by a near 9% decline in OI.

03:50 As far as the Nifty futures go, for the bank Nifty futures again, we didn't see too much

03:55 change in the underlying nor did we see too much change as far as its open interest is

04:01 concerned.

04:02 Now, in terms of the range that we are keeping an eye on as far as the Nifty goes, well,

04:06 yesterday of course we saw a lot of writing around 21.6 and 21.7.

04:12 Well, considering the Nifty came off to a certain extent and I reckon it is going to

04:18 be a hard one to call because at this point of time in the run up to the budget, there

04:24 will not just be writing, but a lot of buying as far as options are concerned as well.

04:28 But where does that leave us when it comes to range based on max OI on the Nifty?

04:32 That hasn't really changed.

04:34 On the higher end, but we are looking at a considerable amount of writing around the

04:39 21.7 through 22,000 calls.

04:43 And on the lower end, we don't have as much traction as far as puts go, which also begs

04:48 the question of whether or not we can in fact expect a little bit more weakness based on

04:51 max OI right now.

04:53 It is also the bank Nifty expiry and we will be talking about that as well.

04:57 Well, the sort of a kind of a pivot is around 44, 500 and that's where we are seeing significant

05:03 amount of traction as far as calls go.

05:05 On the lower end, continuing to keep an eye on 45,000, which at the moment seems unlikely.

05:10 It could be breached, but these days we have about a good 500, 600 point move.

05:15 So it isn't out of the works completely.

05:19 But that said, let's talk about stocks then.

05:22 We saw longs building up in Concord and Zee Entertainment and shorts building in Coromandel

05:26 International, Bajaj Finance reacting to earnings and Chambal Fertilizers.

05:30 And on the other hand, saw longs and winding in Co-Forge Gales and MCX and about a short

05:36 covering for JK Cement and Sinjin International.

05:39 And once again, Alex, today is the Bank Nifty weekly options expiry.

05:42 I reckon banking counters once again will remain focused today.

05:45 Alright, thanks so much, Agam for bringing us those details.

05:48 From the IT space, Tata Consultancy Services is likely to be active in trade today because

05:53 it signed a new 15 year deal with Aviva.

05:57 In the release that was sent out yesterday, there was no mention of the quantum of the

06:01 deal, but there are indications as to how big it could be.

06:04 Tushar is joining in to tell you about the significance and also the nitty gritties of

06:08 it.

06:09 Tushar, you've picked up what the deal value could potentially be.

06:13 Is this significant and how does one look at it in the context of deal making for IT

06:18 companies?

06:19 Absolutely, Alex.

06:20 First of all, good morning to you and Agam both.

06:23 So this is actually a renewal contract with the UK's biggest insurers, insurer Aviva,

06:27 PLC.

06:28 We have to remember that TCS and Aviva have been in a deal for 20 years.

06:32 Now, this particular deal will push the TCS Aviva Alliance to about 2039.

06:37 Now, while TCS did not disclose the financial details of the transaction, our conversations

06:42 with analysts indicated that TCS stands to gain at least $100 million every year from

06:49 this particular deal.

06:50 A Mint report also indicated that the deal could be valued at $2.5 billion, which will

06:56 be actually the largest outsourcing contract that TCS has won in its lifetime.

07:02 So what essentially that means for TCS's earnings, TCS's dollar revenue growth so far this fiscal

07:08 year, in the nine months to December 31st, rose about 4.7 percent.

07:12 TCS now needs about only $146 million to beat its FY23 growth numbers.

07:19 That is the key number that is there.

07:20 So estimating that it's going to earn $100 million and if these incremental revenues

07:24 step in at Q4, that's a plus for TCS.

07:27 We have to also remember that these compare with the TCS Transamerica deal that was scrapped

07:33 last June.

07:34 That was a $2 billion deal spread over 10 years.

07:37 And we also have to remember that TCS has struck another deal with an insurer, a U.S.-based

07:41 insurer, a U.K.-based insurer called Nest at $1.99 billion over 18 years.

07:47 In the Nest case, the company is handling 10 million accounts.

07:50 In the case of Aviva's new account, they just run 5.5 million accounts.

07:55 So essentially almost half of it.

07:57 So we are ballparking the TCS Aviva deal, the new one, at $1.5 billion.

08:02 Alex.

08:03 Fantastic.

08:04 Thanks so much for bringing us those details.

08:06 Tusharan, it bodes well for the rest of the ITPAC as well, if the largest IT company manages

08:11 to strike a deal.

08:12 Let's talk about the pharma space and earnings then.

08:15 And Dr. Reddy's Laboratories has reported an 11 percent growth in net profit for the

08:19 third quarter.

08:20 But I'm sure there's a lot more to focus on than just that headline number.

08:24 Monal is joining in with all of the fine print.

08:27 Monal, what can you tell us about the numbers?

08:29 Good morning.

08:30 Good morning, Alex.

08:31 Yes, profits did come up, but they were pretty much in line with the estimates while they

08:37 were up 11 percent.

08:38 Margins came in slightly lower at 28.1 on higher SG&A expenses is what the analysts

08:46 are saying.

08:47 The North American market did report a growth of 9 percent, but India market was muted at

08:52 around 5 percent.

08:55 Now, management in conversation with us did tell us that they're expecting a high single

09:01 digit growth to continue and aiming at a double digit growth which will outpace the India

09:07 market very soon.

09:08 They're also aspiring to be in the top five in India.

09:09 Now, all of a sudden, the analysts are still not as positive on the stock.

09:10 Citi has maintained its sell version, saying that the relevant contribution to the U.S.

09:11 business is not enough.

09:12 So, there's a lot of uncertainty.

09:13 And the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:14 beginning.

09:15 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:16 beginning.

09:17 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:18 beginning.

09:19 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:20 beginning.

09:21 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:22 beginning.

09:23 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:24 beginning.

09:25 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:26 beginning.

09:27 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:28 beginning.

09:29 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:30 beginning.

09:31 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:32 beginning.

09:33 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:34 beginning.

09:35 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

09:36 beginning.

09:37 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:00 beginning.

10:08 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:09 beginning.

10:10 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:11 beginning.

10:12 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:13 beginning.

10:14 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:15 beginning.

10:16 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:17 beginning.

10:18 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:19 beginning.

10:20 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:21 beginning.

10:22 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:23 beginning.

10:24 So, the reason for that is that the stock market is not as positive as it was in the

10:48 beginning.

11:14 This is the reason why I do not track pharma, ladies and gentlemen.

11:17 Updates on new launches as well is what we are looking at.

11:20 We will get Monal to get you more details over the course of the day though.

11:24 Let us talk about Larsen and Tubro then and this is a company that has reported its profit

11:31 as well as revenue and much higher than what was expected as well I believe.

11:37 We have got Vikas joining in to give you some perspective on that.

11:40 Vikas, what can you tell us?

11:42 Yeah, right.

11:43 Alex, good morning.

11:46 As you rightly said, they have reported earnings which are better than the estimates what the

11:51 analysts had estimated and they have beaten it by good numbers as far as the profits and

11:58 revenues are concerned.

12:00 But it is not as good as on the EBITDA margin side, mostly on the strong execution in the

12:07 project and the manufacturing segment that the company has undertaken in this quarter.

12:12 The order inflows mostly from the international orders has helped the company.

12:17 Almost 67% of the orders have come from Middle East and other international geographies where

12:23 they are present.

12:25 Although domestic has not done well mostly because it is an election season and the company

12:31 expects that from second quarter of FY25 domestic orders will again pick up.

12:38 But till then it is the international orders which have been helping the company and the

12:41 executions are taking place there in the projects and the manufacturing space mostly.

12:48 As far as their margins are concerned, the company believes that this is likely to be

12:55 hit or will continue to be hit for at least for some quarters.

12:59 There has been sequential recovery in that although, but from FY25 onwards the company

13:05 sees that these legacy orders where the margins were low especially from the Covid period,

13:10 they will start to come up once the execution will happen in that, there also the performance

13:16 will improve.

13:17 As far as the key monitorables or takeaways from this earnings was that the company has

13:24 raised the guidance for order inflows as well as for the revenues.

13:32 Order inflow they expect guidance of 20% in FY24 which was earlier 10-12% and revenues

13:40 they expect that this will be in the high teens.

13:43 Okay, I got it.

13:45 Thanks so much Vikas for bringing that down for us.

13:47 Stock was under little bit of selling pressure yesterday but remember it had a stellar run

13:51 over the last 12 months or so and I am looking at gains of over 70% in that period.

13:57 Let us talk about Maruti Suzuki as well then.

14:00 Its market capitalization being eclipsed by Tata Motors in trade yesterday but of course

14:06 the earnings are what we are focusing on today for Maruti Suzuki and we have got Vinay joining

14:10 in to give you some perspective on what to expect.

14:13 Vinay, what can you tell us?

14:14 Morning.

14:15 Well, according to Bloomberg estimates the profit is likely to rise 27% in higher sales

14:21 and increase share of SUVs in these overall sales.

14:24 So the overall sales in the quarter rose 7.6% year on year to 5.01 lakh units and that is

14:31 going to help the company in the quarter and a combination of higher volumes and rise in

14:36 average ticket prices due to increase share of SUVs in the overall sales will aid the

14:40 company's performance in the quarter.

14:42 Revenue is likely to rise 20% and margin may expand to 11.7% compared with 10.2% last year

14:49 and this is also due to softer commodity prices that we have seen in the quarter for the automobile

14:55 companies.

14:56 Got it.

14:57 Thanks so much Vinay for bringing us those details.

14:59 We have to slip into a very quick break.

15:01 We have got stock specific action on the other side.

15:03 So do stay tuned.

15:04 Thanks so much.

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IMF Revises India's GDP Growth Forecast To 6.7% | All You Need To Know | NDTV Profit

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