What Factors Are Weighing On The Current Market? | The Portfolio Manager | NDTV Profit

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Niraj Shah speaks to Rahul Chadha on 'The Portfolio Manager'. #NDTVProfitLive


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Rahul Chadha, Founder & CIO, Shikhara Investment Management
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00:00 Thanks for tuning in to The Portfolio Manager.
00:16 I am your host, Neeraj Shah and our guest today is Rahul Chadha, founder and CEO of
00:21 Shikra Investments.
00:22 He is very well known in the Indian circles and the global circles and it is a pleasure
00:26 to have him in our studios.
00:27 Rahul, great having you.
00:28 Thanks for taking the time out.
00:30 Thanks Neeraj for having me here today.
00:32 And you know, the perspective that you bring from a global level for assessing risks and
00:40 thereby people trying to figure out what kind of portfolios can one have, by a derivative
00:46 of this conversation, will be very useful.
00:48 This may not be as much about a portfolio that you are creating because I believe portfolios
00:52 will get created under Shikra over a while.
00:55 But would love to start off by asking you about how do you see from your vantage point
01:01 the optimism around India at a point of time when the EM optimism is not so high and the
01:08 growth in various economies.
01:10 Again India kind of stands out because the world may not necessarily have the strongest
01:13 year of growth in 2024.
01:16 So Neeraj, if you look at that framework, see there is a reason why optimism about India
01:20 is high because if you see over the last four or five years, the policy makers seem to do
01:26 no wrong.
01:27 So life is all about making choices and what we've seen is consistently good, right choices
01:33 made on a macroeconomic front.
01:35 And I think that kind of explains why we've seen a lot of optimism.
01:40 This is the fiscal prudence which the finance minister kind of reiterated yesterday.
01:46 You look at what happened around COVID and we got very badly impacted as a country.
01:53 But still karma kind of on heads prevailed and the SOPs we gave, the benefits we gave
01:59 were limited to the people who really needed it rather than have a huge amount of debt
02:03 on balance sheet of a country and give handouts for everybody.
02:06 So I think that was the first mature thought and the way we handled COVID was good.
02:10 And coming out of COVID, I mean the GST collections and there is a reason why GST collections
02:15 are so good over the years because look, the government machinery has implemented GST well.
02:22 They've gone through multiple iterations.
02:24 As they say, they've learned fast, they've failed fast and quickly improve whatever the
02:28 gaps were there and that's why we've got the benefits.
02:30 And those benefits of high GST collections have not been frittered away in short term
02:35 gains to win votes, which used to happen in the past, but have been put in gainful infrastructure
02:42 projects which have multi-year economic benefits.
02:47 And I think that's playing out and that is what globally investors are noticing.
02:52 And this is happening at a time where we're seeing policymaking deteriorate in most parts
02:57 of the world.
02:58 It's like I live in New York and I see what is happening in New York.
03:01 You look at the US bond yields.
03:02 Today when US economy is kind of in red hot, US is still running a fiscal deficit of 6%.
03:10 There's a fair bit of anger in the society on a large amount of population being left
03:14 out.
03:15 Look, I consider myself relatively well off, but when I do a $3,000 monthly outgo for health
03:22 insurance and still I pray that I don't fall sick in US and come to India for treatment.
03:26 There is something wrong.
03:28 And I think that is something which is being done right by the policy makers in India.
03:36 They're creating the right framework so that the businessmen, whether it's the local or
03:41 the global companies, come and invest in the country.
03:44 And I think that is what they ought to do.
03:46 Markets can go up and down.
03:47 Let's not be too much worried about markets from a near-term perspective.
03:52 What matters is are we on the path to become the third largest economy?
03:57 Are we strengthening our institutions?
04:00 Are we moving towards becoming a developed nation?
04:03 Yeah, most certainly.
04:05 So tell me, let's kind of divvy up this into two, if you will.
04:10 And I would love to know more about Shikra as well.
04:12 It's an interesting name.
04:13 Congratulations on that.
04:14 I really like it.
04:15 But let's try and think about this from a two perspective.
04:17 So I'm presuming your firm is not an India-focused thing.
04:21 It is focusing on various economies in the world because you have a global role in the
04:25 past as well in your previous assignment.
04:27 So tell us, if you were a portfolio manager sitting globally, as you will be or as you
04:32 are, and thinking of where to allocate, which economies, which countries to allocate, how
04:39 much of this portfolio would be bent towards, say, a market like India, which is growing
04:43 well, but which is, for lack of a better word, expensive relative to everything else around,
04:51 comparable?
04:52 Yeah.
04:53 So let me first kind of talk about Shikra at the genesis.
04:55 And look, I left my previous firm in September, and there was this time to think about what
04:59 one wanted to do.
05:01 And when I came with this name, Shikra, being in New York, most people said, look, it's
05:04 going to be hard for Americans to pronounce.
05:06 Why don't you have a mountain, a tree, or some forest?
05:10 And my point was, look, I'm very, very proud of my Indian heritage, and I want something
05:13 which reflects that.
05:15 So Shikra is a Sanskrit word which stands for peak.
05:18 And as we know, markets are going to be tough.
05:21 And those mountain peaks or those top of the spires of the temples, et cetera, were always
05:27 a vantage point to see the approaching enemy.
05:30 So that's what Shikra stands for, the peak, which is a vantage point for markets.
05:36 And that's where it is.
05:37 The way we look at the whole structure is, I, along with some senior colleagues, I'm
05:42 going to be in New York.
05:43 But look, every three months, I'm some part of Asia.
05:46 It's India, Hong Kong, Korea, et cetera.
05:49 So I'm constantly traveling.
05:51 We will have a team in Hong Kong, seasoned professionals, which will give us on-ground
05:57 sense, insights of what's happening in China, Korea, Taiwan, et cetera.
06:03 We'll have a team in Mumbai.
06:04 So it's going to be a truly kind of a global asset manager.
06:10 And the hope is, which is what we were discussing before, that when we grew up, when we came
06:14 in the industry, the top names in the asset management business globally were of the Western
06:20 lineage, the European names, the American names.
06:25 The idea is to build something which every Indian, every Asian is proud of.
06:29 Hopefully, this is just the beginning of the dream.
06:31 But look, the intentions are good.
06:32 The values are high.
06:35 As they say, luck favors the brave.
06:37 Yeah, most certainly.
06:38 So well, and I'm sure it will turn out well with your experience and with the team that
06:42 you're talking about.
06:44 And therefore, I'm trying to peek of it further into it.
06:46 How would you, therefore, because you have the option of investing or because you will
06:50 have the option of investing across the world, if you will, what would an ideal global portfolio
06:55 look like if you were doing this right now?
06:59 So we would start with the emerging markets or I would say more specifically Asia fund.
07:03 So India is a market we'd like.
07:05 There are times the market goes through these periods of overvaluation.
07:09 As we said today, probably that portfolio or exposure to India will be 20%, 25%.
07:14 This is a market we like from a medium, longer term perspective.
07:17 Look, there is a bit of a slowdown in the economy.
07:21 We've seen soft numbers.
07:22 I think the numbers for next quarter will be also soft.
07:25 Liquidity is tight.
07:26 Government capex into the elections is going to slow down.
07:31 Some of the clampdown on unsecured lending may hurt the economy from a discretionary
07:36 consumption in the short term, but it kind of prevents a bigger bubble from a medium
07:40 term.
07:41 So I must congratulate and I'm fairly appreciative of RBI being such a proactive kind of an institution
07:49 doing these measures.
07:51 So India is a market, like the way I said, from a medium term we like.
07:55 Outside that, I think in the second half, there is an opportunity in China.
07:59 That market's been almost written off by the market participants.
08:03 And what we're seeing is authorities clearly wake up to the fact that deflation is getting
08:08 entrenched in the economy and they've reached that stage where they'll do whatever it takes
08:13 to revive the economy.
08:15 And I don't think the market participants have priced that market for that or are baking
08:22 in that situation.
08:23 So I think there is an opportunity which may come in Chinese stocks and these stocks can
08:30 rally 30, 40 percent.
08:32 Though I think one adjustment which is pending in China is the RMB adjustment.
08:38 So highly likely that with PVOC focused on increasing domestic liquidity over currency,
08:45 what we may see over the next six months is some slippage in the currency.
08:48 I won't be surprised if RMB goes to 8, etc.
08:52 But I think that is the time to go all in China and that's there.
08:55 So that is going to be the true bottom for the emerging markets.
08:59 So if you look at, we are looking at Hong Kong, China to be anywhere between 25, 30
09:04 percent of our fund.
09:05 If you look at India, 25 percent, that's 55.
09:09 There are opportunities in Korea, Taiwan with what is happening in the AI space and AI going
09:12 mainstream with each and every organization kind of wanting it as a priority item.
09:20 What they're doing, there's a great amount of opportunity which comes in Taiwan to play
09:25 the AI story.
09:26 Korea also, the likes of Samsung, etc.
09:28 are attractive.
09:29 Some of the Korean automakers, they trade below book, three, four time P. These guys
09:34 are the top three in EVs, great model lineup.
09:37 We see how well Hyundai and Kia are doing.
09:39 I think those are opportunities.
09:40 And then finally, 20, 25 percent comes in ASEAN.
09:44 That region has not done well.
09:46 But as the global recovery comes towards the end of this year, next year, markets like
09:50 Vietnam, Indonesia and Thailand should do well.
09:55 So some people are making, just before we take that break, because on the other side
09:59 of the break, we'll try and talk about India in a bit more detail.
10:02 But there have been a few thoughts expressed over the last few days that for EM funds to
10:07 get in money, and some EM funds have shut down, some EM funds are kind of trying to
10:12 be a bit careful.
10:14 But for money to flow into EM funds and thereby to India, it is imperative for Chinese markets
10:20 to find that bit of interest as well.
10:22 Else flows into other EMs too, and EM as a pack might struggle.
10:27 Would you believe that to be the case?
10:29 So I think that is important.
10:30 See, China is close to 35 percent of EM benchmark.
10:34 And if the market, which is one third, does well, obviously the funds get allocation.
10:39 And let's also understand, in US, you had the top five names do so well last year that
10:45 that kind of took away a lot of capital away.
10:48 But I think a lot of the good news is in the price for those names.
10:52 With rate cuts happening in the second half, dollar is going to peak.
10:56 That is always good for EM.
10:57 With all the likelihood of Trump winning elections, something which US has and doesn't really
11:02 appreciate for last five years, the policy predicted, the policy predictability, I think
11:08 there are going to be questions raised on that.
11:09 So businesses are going to be reluctant to put large sums of capital if they don't have
11:14 clear visibility for the next five, 10 years.
11:16 And I think that's where markets like EM benefit, that from a relative basis, the US exceptionalism,
11:23 which was there, may not look that exceptional post the elections.
11:28 So that's what our hope is.
11:31 I would say that's what we kind of think would happen.
11:35 Relatively, EMs might look better over the next 12 to 18 months.
11:42 And there are fundamental factors for that as well, as you said.
11:44 OK, stay on, Rahul.
11:45 We'll take a very quick break.
11:48 Come back, continue our conversation on the Portfolio Manager.
11:52 Since it's a Portfolio Manager show, we'll try and focus a bit more on portfolios.
11:56 And how would Rahul Chadda think of having a portfolio in India if he was purely running
12:01 an Indian theme?
12:02 We'll come back and try and do some bit of conversation around that.
12:04 Stay tuned.
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15:50 We're back with the portfolio manager right here
15:58 on NDTV Profit.
15:59 And it's a slightly different version of Portfolio Manager,
16:01 because in the first half, we've tried and asked our guest,
16:04 Rahul Chadha, founder and CEO of Shikra Investments,
16:06 about how does he think about India
16:08 within a global portfolio.
16:10 We've gotten that idea.
16:11 He would probably allocate about 20%, 25% of his money
16:14 or his wealth into India.
16:16 And he's hoping for an EM--
16:19 not revival, but interest revival, if you will,
16:22 which is kind of low right now because of what
16:24 China is doing now.
16:25 Rahul, I hope I got that right.
16:27 Yeah, absolutely.
16:28 Absolutely.
16:28 Now let me try and ask you that if you were in this segment,
16:32 if you were running an India scheme alone,
16:35 how would you think about that?
16:36 Because there are a lot of sectors firing.
16:39 India is promising growth.
16:41 But it's also a world which is kind of cagey on growth.
16:45 And therefore, it will have an impact
16:47 on what happens to any market, including India.
16:50 So if you rewind, early last year
16:53 was a very attractive time.
16:55 In fact, what we were doing was when everybody was excited
16:58 last Jan, Feb about China reopening,
17:00 we were taking some money out of China.
17:03 And there was this Adani episode where
17:05 you got good entry level in India.
17:06 We were adding to it.
17:08 What we saw was as this narrative of inflation
17:12 peaking gained ground, we had a huge run-up,
17:15 which happened in markets from April onwards to now.
17:19 And I think most markets took a breather September, October.
17:23 India had its own peculiar rally in this.
17:25 Some of the names we were discussing,
17:27 small mid-cap names, et cetera.
17:29 And recently, there was a rally in all these AI names.
17:31 So I think that part of the market looks frothy.
17:34 Some of the mid-cap names which we've liked in the past,
17:36 the hospitals, real estate, look a bit stretched.
17:39 Ideally, one would like 15%, 20% pullback in that.
17:42 So if you're asking me to deploy capital,
17:44 I'll probably deploy only half of my intended capital
17:47 in these mid-cap names.
17:49 But these are the themes which over the next 5, 10 years
17:52 will be multi-bankers.
17:53 So if you ask me how would I create a portfolio,
17:56 banks still would be about 25%, 30% of the portfolio.
18:00 Look, we were always historically inclined
18:02 towards private banks.
18:04 But why one was not looking at public sector banks
18:08 was because of the frequent government intervention in that.
18:11 So you want to give credit to the current government
18:13 that look, they've not interfered, intervened
18:18 in the working of the public sector enterprises.
18:22 They've become fairly competitive.
18:24 The leadership there is fairly meritocratic.
18:28 So there is a case.
18:29 There is a case to look at some of these
18:31 well-managed public sector banks.
18:33 And I think that's an opportunity.
18:34 Though these names have done well,
18:36 but on pullbacks, one can evaluate.
18:38 So private sector banks obviously remain
18:40 a core part of the portfolio, but probably add 15%, 20%
18:45 in that banking allocation to some of the public sector banks.
18:49 So I think that's kind of-- we've always had SBI.
18:52 But yeah, one would kind of go out and add
18:55 some more names over there.
18:56 So that's, I would say, a slight change in the view
19:00 for that perspective.
19:02 Outside that, industrials is something we have liked.
19:05 So continue to add to those names.
19:07 I think real estate, historically, it's
19:10 at least a five to seven-year cycle.
19:12 We are in year three of that five to seven-year cycle.
19:15 You look at the market caps, despite these names doing well
19:18 from the COVID lows, they still have a long way to go.
19:21 The market caps are not that huge,
19:22 so there is an opportunity.
19:24 In all this time, we were playing the whole basket,
19:27 Daylife, Sova, Prestige, continue
19:28 to kind of like these names.
19:30 Hospitals is something we've liked.
19:32 We've not seen the revival of medical tourism
19:35 to the fullest extent.
19:36 I think that picks up in the next couple of years.
19:38 And a lot of these hospitals have also learned their lessons.
19:42 They are doing smart brownfield expansions.
19:44 There are no huge greenfield expansions, et cetera.
19:48 So that's attractive.
19:49 One sector which kind of emerges because
19:53 of what the government's focused over recent months
19:56 is tourism, mostly domestic tourism.
19:59 So I think that's a big, big story.
20:00 And that takes care of this whole youth unemployment
20:05 which we have in the country.
20:06 This need to create 10 million jobs, as they say,
20:09 which in today's AI world--
20:12 It's difficult.
20:12 --the manufact-- it's genuinely difficult.
20:14 So I think that takes care of a lot of the issues,
20:17 if we do that and that--
20:18 Can you explain that?
20:19 Look, again, in any country we've seen,
20:22 tourism creates a huge amount of job.
20:24 It's a service industry.
20:25 It's a service industry, and how much would you automate
20:28 over there, the restaurants and everything?
20:31 So that creates job.
20:32 And look, at the end of the day, people would have spare time.
20:35 And rather than go out and spend that money outside the country,
20:40 it creates a huge multiplier effect
20:42 if that money is spent in the country.
20:44 And we've seen, after nearly 15 years,
20:48 we see the Capex pick up in the hotel industry.
20:52 So I think that is where it is.
20:54 So the airports have been built.
20:56 So I think that is a space one would look at
20:58 for the next 5, 10 years.
20:59 And I think that kind of story lasts much longer.
21:03 So tourism, again, hospitals, real estate,
21:07 industrials, financials--
21:09 these would be interesting stories.
21:11 Nice.
21:12 Can I ask you about what within-- let's say,
21:14 I'll start with the last first, then go into banks as well,
21:17 because PSU Banks is an interesting piece.
21:19 And because you bring that view that a typical FII might have.
21:23 Yeah.
21:23 Right?
21:24 So how would a large FII like yourself, for example,
21:27 look at playing, let's say, tourism?
21:30 Because it's a sector with a lot of offshoots,
21:33 but none of the offshoots have significant large cap presence.
21:37 Right?
21:37 So how does a money bag like you play that theme?
21:40 Yeah.
21:41 So we were kind of exposed to some of the hodl names,
21:45 like something like a lemon tree.
21:47 We were anchor investors.
21:48 So you went through that period where COVID hit them bad.
21:52 And we were playing along with the promoters that
21:54 look somewhere it comes out of it.
21:56 But they've done a great job.
21:57 They've done a great job.
21:58 So I think those prayers worked.
22:01 So hats off to them.
22:02 So I think that's there.
22:03 You've got options like MakeMyTrip, the OTS, et cetera.
22:06 So all those things are there.
22:08 Look, what would happen is in due course,
22:10 as you have the structural growth stories,
22:14 revive in the sector, more companies would come for IPO.
22:17 So you will get the stocks.
22:19 It's really a function of the growth and the opportunity set.
22:22 And you'll get the names.
22:24 There are some resorts listed here and there,
22:27 but they are small market caps.
22:29 But hotels, some of the OTAs, airlines
22:31 are a good way to play.
22:34 Airports, I think that is where it would come.
22:36 We've seen a huge run up in some of the listed airports.
22:39 So one would like to get them cheap.
22:41 But I think such is in the situation
22:44 with most good names in India.
22:46 Yeah, you can argue, yes.
22:48 OK.
22:49 Well, there's probably one pure player listed name.
22:52 And the other one, which will, as per a note recently,
22:54 will get listed in a few.
22:56 But otherwise, we don't have too many players there.
22:58 But the point is well taken.
22:59 OK.
22:59 The other aspect is PSU banks.
23:01 The bulls make an argument that even
23:04 if you think hard about which large default could happen
23:07 in India over the next 12 to 18 to 24 months,
23:09 you have to think really hard.
23:10 And still, it might be difficult to come up with a name.
23:13 So asset quality, which used to plague PSUs in the past,
23:15 have not.
23:16 You also made this point about interference, et cetera,
23:18 which is also coming.
23:19 So my question to you is, do you reckon
23:20 that there is a case that PSU financials can trade
23:25 at a much higher average valuation
23:28 over the course of this decade than what they
23:30 have in the previous decade?
23:31 So I'm a strong believer in market cycles.
23:34 And we've seen-- and being in market for 25 years,
23:36 we've seen those cycles.
23:37 And typically, these are 8 to 10 year cycles.
23:40 So I jokingly tell my team that we sell hubris
23:43 and we buy humility.
23:44 And that is where you make money.
23:46 I still remember when we bought real estate in September
23:49 of 2020, even the management was surprised.
23:52 And I like, boss, you're putting on the best behavior.
23:54 You are deleveraging.
23:56 You got the best system in place.
23:58 You don't want to buy a land bank.
23:59 This is the time we'll make money.
24:01 And then after seven, eight years of cycle,
24:02 when you go back to land banking,
24:04 it's the same old story.
24:05 So to that point, if you look at where has the excesses
24:09 happened in India, it is unsecured retail credit.
24:13 What does every NBFC want to do?
24:15 Unsecured retail credit.
24:17 So that is where you've got to stay out.
24:20 That is where valuations will contract.
24:22 That is where you will get negative surprises.
24:24 The PSU banks call them that-- I won't call them
24:28 [INAUDIBLE] but they were slow to come to this.
24:30 And that is where they get saved.
24:33 And on the corporate lending, I think
24:35 things are in fine fettle.
24:37 So it doesn't look like that you're
24:38 going to have large accounts which go delinquent.
24:43 And they've got a decent liability franchise also.
24:45 So that kind of helps.
24:47 So I think they can go anywhere, let's say,
24:50 between 0.7 to near book, et cetera.
24:53 And that's where the upside is.
24:55 So obviously, you don't go too much down the curve.
24:57 Look at the top two, three PSU banks.
24:59 And I think that's where--
25:00 But they are above one book, so to say.
25:03 You expect that could happen to--
25:05 therefore, they need to trade at above average valuations,
25:08 except one, maybe.
25:09 You've got to trade at above average valuations
25:11 for the past decade, right?
25:12 Yeah, see, what happens is when you have a strong tailwind,
25:15 stocks would trade.
25:17 It is really a question of do they
25:19 trade at, let's say, one standard deviation above,
25:22 or do they trade about two standard deviation above.
25:24 And there's a reason that they may trade above average
25:27 valuations, because last seven, eight years, what
25:29 we've seen from the government is
25:31 very positive for these banks.
25:32 The macroeconomic stability is very positive for these banks.
25:35 And so I think that kind of helps them.
25:37 Point well taken.
25:38 Before we wrap up, because we're out of time completely,
25:40 but just would love 60 seconds if you can.
25:42 Could there be a similar case made for public sector
25:45 enterprises at large?
25:46 I know it's wrong to paint that with the same brush,
25:48 because there are various sectors.
25:50 And people play sectors and not necessarily the owner.
25:52 But I'm just trying to understand,
25:54 because this government is making a difference
25:56 in the markets.
25:57 Do you like other PSU bets?
25:58 Because they've been the rank out performers
26:00 in the last three to six months.
26:02 So I think somewhere that's playing out.
26:04 Somewhere that's playing out, let's say, in utilities,
26:06 and maybe somewhere OMCs.
26:09 Look, there is a bit of a froth also.
26:10 There is a bit of a froth in some names which
26:13 are trading at five, six times bulk,
26:16 and valuations you see beyond 20, 25 times.
26:18 So it's not that everything is attractive.
26:20 But again, there is operational efficiency.
26:24 There is, again, somewhere we can say the swing in the walk,
26:27 all these right things being done by these PSUs, et cetera.
26:30 So one can look at these PSUs in particularly what we like
26:33 is the power generation, the power transmission space,
26:36 et cetera.
26:36 Yeah, so my final point, Rahul, just trying to understand,
26:39 again, because you are an FII, right?
26:41 PSUs probably were untouchable in the last decade,
26:44 if you will.
26:45 Very few people would go for it.
26:46 You believe that is no longer the case?
26:48 Yeah, I think with the governance improve,
26:50 it has happened.
26:51 And a large part of PSU governance
26:53 is determined by what priorities the government has.
26:56 And with the governance improvement which has happened,
26:59 I think FIs would look at it.
27:01 OK.
27:02 Because this is an important view,
27:04 because Rahul Chadha wears his Indian lineage on his sleeve.
27:08 Very proud of that.
27:11 But he's a large FII voice.
27:15 And therefore, it's great to get a perspective from him
27:17 on the portfolio manager about how he thinks about portfolio
27:20 construction.
27:20 Because that is how typically a foreign institutional investor
27:23 would think about it.
27:25 And I think in some of these conversations,
27:27 some of these answers, you've told us a lot more
27:30 than I was hoping for.
27:31 So Rahul, thanks a lot for taking the time out
27:33 and coming to our studios, more importantly.
27:35 Thanks, Nitesh, for having me.
27:36 The pleasure was ours.
27:37 And viewers, thank you for tuning
27:38 into this episode of The Portfolio Manager.
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