• 10 months ago
- #TataMotors sees profits double on higher #JLR sales
- What does the market expect from the company's deleveraging plans?

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Guest List:
Gaurang Shah,Head-Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services
Soni Patnaik, AVP , JM Financial Services
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01:33 - Hello and welcome, you're watching Ask Profit
01:35 on NDTV Profit.
01:36 I'm Smriti Choudhury and with me is Alex Matthew.
01:39 And for the next 30 minutes,
01:41 we'll take all your stock related questions.
01:43 You can write to us on any of our social media channels
01:46 or to the YouTube live chat.
01:48 You can also write to us on the WhatsApp number
01:50 that'll be flashing on your screen.
01:54 Now let me introduce you to the guests for today.
01:56 We have with us Mr. Gorang Shah
01:58 of Jiojit Financial Services
02:00 and Soni Patnayak of JM Financial Services.
02:03 Welcome to both of you
02:04 and thank you for taking the time out.
02:06 Now, before we get into the questions and even the focus,
02:09 let's take a quick look at the markets.
02:11 Alex, how are the markets faring this morning?
02:13 - It's a lot of chop and churn.
02:15 Good morning to you Smriti, as well as to everybody else
02:17 and as well as Gorang and Soni,
02:19 thanks so much for taking the time.
02:21 Let's take a look at the benchmark index
02:22 and it's trading with gains of about a third of a percent
02:25 and about 80 points shy of the 22,000 mark.
02:30 It's currently trading with gains
02:33 just about a third of a percent
02:34 and off the high point of the day.
02:36 Remember, you've seen a very dramatic surge
02:39 in equity markets on Friday
02:41 and we're yet to reclaim the all-time high
02:44 that was hit intraday on Friday.
02:47 The broader markets as well,
02:48 let's take a look at where they are
02:50 and in fact, they're doing better off
02:51 than the benchmark indices at least.
02:53 You have the mid-cap 150 index
02:55 that's gaining about 7/10 of a percent
02:57 and you have the 250, small-cap 250 index
03:00 that is up as much as 0.7% as well.
03:03 Among the key movers then,
03:05 you have the auto index that is up about 1.8%
03:08 and we'll talk about one of the primary reasons why,
03:11 but you also have pharma that's outperforming
03:13 and energy index is also doing well in trade today.
03:16 Realty is up about 1.4% as well.
03:19 So by and large, the market breadth seems to be tilted
03:22 in favor of the advances in trade today.
03:24 But let's talk about Tata Motors,
03:26 which has to be the focus of the day.
03:28 And I mean, look at the headline numbers.
03:32 Revenue is up about 25% on a consolidated basis.
03:36 The EBITDA is up about 60%.
03:38 The margins have improved quite substantially.
03:41 But if you look at within the consolidated numbers
03:44 and you focus on Jaguar Land Rover,
03:46 that really is where the story is this time around
03:49 because the EBITDA margin for Jaguar Land Rover
03:51 is expanded as much as 410 basis points.
03:55 And the top line number has grown by as much as 22%.
03:59 The PBT is up quite substantially as well.
04:02 And the EBIT margin is up as much as 510 basis points.
04:06 According to all of the signs that are visible right now,
04:09 Jaguar Land Rover has not just turned around,
04:11 but it now seems to be heading
04:13 for the takeoff zone of the runway.
04:17 Gaurang, is that your view as well?
04:19 And how would you look at Tata Motors
04:21 from this point?
04:22 Is it still a buy at this level?
04:24 Thank you, Alex, for having me on the show
04:27 and morning to all of you.
04:29 So this is one stock that has been on our radar
04:34 for a pretty, pretty long period of time.
04:36 All bets were against Tata Motors
04:39 when it came to auto sector as a performance
04:41 or an investment idea, given the overhang.
04:43 And one of the biggest overhang, Alex,
04:45 was the business which has actually turned around
04:48 and started to contribute to do much better.
04:50 And that is JLR, Jaguar Land Rover.
04:53 We were always of the belief that, you know,
04:56 there is tremendous amount of potential
04:58 in terms of domestic brand Tata Motor vehicles
05:03 that we see, as well as high-end premium brand like JLR.
05:08 It was only a matter of time
05:09 with the right business strategy,
05:11 right product mix, right launches, and scalability.
05:16 All this all went extremely well.
05:18 And I think the stock is where it is today,
05:20 running 7% higher, somewhere close to about 940.
05:25 Your question whether it has the potential to do more,
05:28 we definitely believe so.
05:30 The reason why we believe so is that
05:31 one of the biggest triggers that will happen
05:33 in the near future is going to be,
05:35 you know, debt-free balance sheet.
05:36 That's what the management has spoken about
05:38 over the last couple of quarters.
05:40 So our interest is going to be primarily
05:43 to see those green shoots of the balance sheet
05:47 becoming debt-free.
05:48 And that itself will be a big trigger, Alex.
05:50 So you want to have brands and all that product particles,
05:53 product mix contributing extremely well.
05:56 But debt-free balance sheet will be a huge, huge trigger.
05:59 So we still maintain a buy call on Tata Motors
06:02 from a long-term point of view.
06:04 Any trigger that you, or rather any target that you have?
06:07 Have you revised your target upwards?
06:09 We did so, but Alex, the stock is up 7%.
06:14 Yeah, that's why I'm asking.
06:15 Running away at about 60 to 60 guys.
06:17 So it's come very close.
06:19 1050 was the levels that we had thought of,
06:22 but the stock has surprised us quite positively
06:26 after it opened for trade this month.
06:28 Well, right.
06:29 The stock has, most of the brokerages
06:32 remain positive on the stock,
06:34 and it's not just after the results.
06:36 This has been the case even before.
06:38 But let's quickly dive into the questions.
06:41 The first one is from Veeru Parashar.
06:43 He's talking about NHPC.
06:45 They want to buy the stock.
06:47 And from what I can see, the stock has given over,
06:51 it's been a multi-bagger in the last six months itself.
06:54 Now he wants to know if this is the right time
06:56 to get into the stock.
06:57 Sonia, what would you suggest?
07:00 Should you buy the stock at these levels,
07:03 or should you wait a little bit for maybe a correction?
07:06 And good morning, Smriti.
07:08 Thank you so much for having me on the show.
07:10 Talking about NHPC, it is wise if you can buy it on a dip.
07:14 I think the structure on the technical charts
07:16 is looking quite strong for the stock.
07:18 However, if there's any sort of a dip
07:20 of about two to three odd percent
07:22 on short-term trading perspective,
07:23 one can enter in that range.
07:25 There seems to be multiple support
07:27 in the range of 105 to 103.
07:28 So the closer that you buy to the support levels
07:30 could be a wise decision,
07:32 as the risk reward can be favorable back then.
07:34 So try to accumulate in the range of 110 to 107.
07:38 That can be a buying range.
07:39 And re-initiate the longs, keeping a stop loss of 103.
07:42 And then you can see it going back again
07:44 to 116, 120 odd levels.
07:46 So I think that should be the strategy for now.
07:48 Okay, interesting.
07:50 We've got a viewer, Srinivas,
07:52 that's asking about renewable energy players, Gorang.
07:55 We've seen some of the names,
07:56 particularly with regard to the rooftop solar program
08:00 that the government spoke about,
08:01 or rather the finance minister spoke about
08:03 during her interim budget presentation.
08:05 Would you like any of these stocks at this juncture?
08:11 - Oh, we have a couple of coverages in the power generation.
08:14 And after the government's focus and policy changes, Alex,
08:19 most of these power generating,
08:20 conventional power generating companies
08:22 have gathered their business act together
08:25 and have done quite a decent amount of groundwork
08:29 in terms of scalability and venturing into either,
08:33 you know, green power, as we call it, solar or wind.
08:35 One company, one or two companies that we are positive on,
08:39 one is Tata Power.
08:40 This company, Alex, has done huge amount of investment
08:45 into solar energy, and they have expanded themselves
08:50 in states like Rajasthan, Punjab, UP, Haryana,
08:53 Bihar, et cetera, et cetera, including some other states.
08:56 So Tata Power is one.
08:57 And of course, stock is, I think,
08:59 virtually that's at all time high,
09:01 but we are still optimistic about this particular company.
09:03 And the second one is a government-led NTPC.
09:07 This company is also going into big way
09:08 into solar, green energy, et cetera, et cetera.
09:11 So if you're really looking at long-term time horizon
09:14 with this team in mind,
09:15 then I think Tata Power and NTPC could be the two ideas.
09:19 - All right.
09:19 They have also,
09:21 they also want to know about Alok Industries,
09:24 but let's take a short-term view on this.
09:26 They've already bought in the stock at 37 levels.
09:29 Soni, how does it look on the charts?
09:31 - I think, Sreejit, it's looking quite decent
09:35 from current levels.
09:36 If you see, and it's trying to hold above the day low.
09:40 So as long as the day low is not breaking,
09:42 I think one can continue to hold.
09:44 On a medium-term perspective, the stock is quite good.
09:47 It can give you a good movement above,
09:49 almost about 10 to 12% on a medium perspective.
09:52 So just hold the stock for a medium perspective.
09:55 On a short-term perspective,
09:56 I think you can just look forward
09:57 to keeping the stock just around at 29 or so.
10:00 - Got it.
10:01 We've got a question coming from Rajesh Maheshwari.
10:04 He's asking about Indigo.
10:06 And the company's come out with its results.
10:09 He's bought at an average price of 2396.
10:12 And so he's making some money.
10:13 The stock, of course, is up as much as 3% on the back
10:16 of quite a stellar set of numbers, Gaurang,
10:18 in the third quarter.
10:19 It seems to be solidifying its market share
10:23 in the domestic sectors as a whole.
10:26 And it also, there are some reports that suggest
10:29 that it's contemplating a business class strategy as well.
10:33 That's a deviation from what it's done so far.
10:36 What do you make of that?
10:37 And would you be a holder of Indigo for the long term?
10:41 - Well, so this is one stock in the aviation pack, Alex.
10:44 When the IPO was there, we came out with an IPO note
10:48 at that point of time, advising a subscriber.
10:51 Post the opportunities and the numbers
10:54 that Interglobe Aviation reported,
10:56 we again came out with a standalone
10:59 fundamental buy recommendation.
11:02 And my sense, Alex, is, I mean, honestly, Alex,
11:05 last week I was traveling to Kolkata.
11:07 And in both the airports, Kolkata airport
11:11 and Mumbai airport, I mean, just looking at the passengers
11:14 that were flying, I mean, who said COVID
11:17 was just somewhere sometime back.
11:19 That's the kind of crowd that was there.
11:22 So opportunity is definitely there.
11:24 And my sense is that with the new aircraft edition,
11:27 fleet edition, that is, Alex,
11:28 that Interglobe Aviation is planning to do,
11:32 they will definitely come out
11:33 a decent amount of market share.
11:35 Realizations will be good.
11:36 The only small hitch that I see
11:39 is the number of aircrafts that are grounded
11:41 because of the Pleth and Whitney engines
11:43 and the inability of Pleth and Whitney engines
11:46 to rectify that particular technical issue that is there.
11:49 That's the only short term overhang.
11:51 Otherwise, we remain extremely positive.
11:54 - All right.
11:55 Next one, we're talking about data patterns.
11:57 This one's from Rakesh Arora.
11:59 And he says he's bought the stock
12:01 at an average price of 1500.
12:03 He wants a long term view on that.
12:04 Gaurang, is this in your coverage?
12:07 - Smriti, I'll give it a pass.
12:09 Honestly, we don't have a coverage,
12:10 so I won't be able to cover it.
12:12 - All right.
12:13 Then Soni, how does the data patterns look?
12:15 And since I've already bought in the shares,
12:18 it's around 1500.
12:20 The share is currently around 1900 levels,
12:23 or in fact, reaching there.
12:24 - I think, Smriti, you can just trade these drop loss
12:30 to 1850.
12:32 1850 is at 200 EMA,
12:34 which is going to be a very crucial support for near term.
12:38 Provided if it breaks,
12:39 you can see some further downside movement up to 1750,
12:42 1700 odd levels.
12:43 So it's quite important that you can just place,
12:46 trade your stop losses to 1850.
12:48 And if you wanted to bounce back from those support levels,
12:51 you can see 1950, 2000 odd levels coming back again.
12:54 And just hold the stock, 1850 trailing stop loss.
12:58 - Okay.
12:59 This next question is coming in from Rakesh,
13:02 and it's a very small company that he's looking at.
13:05 He's already bought, I believe, into this,
13:08 Ward Wizard Innovation and Mobility,
13:12 is the name of the counter.
13:13 It's currently trading just shy of that 80 rupee mark,
13:18 and it's up as much as 7.4%.
13:20 It is, I believe, a manufacturer of electronic small bikes,
13:25 but not a very prominent player.
13:28 Gaurang, if you don't have a fundamental view
13:31 on this particular account,
13:32 and I would completely understand if you don't,
13:34 what would you buy from the perspective of two wheelers
13:38 in the EV space?
13:40 - So two wheeler EV,
13:43 I think the first company that launched an electric vehicle,
13:47 if my memory serves me right, was Hiromoto Corp.
13:51 Then they kind of just, you know,
13:54 lagged a little bit on the backside,
13:56 did not take it forward from there on.
13:59 And then after that,
14:00 we have likes of TVS Motors and Bajaj Auto,
14:03 with the legend getting relaunched,
14:06 Bajaj Chetak, in form of EV, two wheeler scooter.
14:11 So, and we have coverage on all these three names,
14:13 to be very honest, Alex.
14:14 Bajaj Auto, Hiromoto Corp., as well as TVS Motors.
14:17 - Right, Gaurang, next one's a very interesting question.
14:23 This one's from Kaji, and they're talking about PTM.
14:25 They want to know if they can take a contrarian view
14:27 on this one.
14:28 Now, we have already seen a regulatory action
14:30 against PTM.
14:32 Vijay Shekar Sharma has come out and said
14:34 that there's no ED action yet against the company or himself.
14:39 But would you suggest taking a contrarian view right now,
14:42 considering the stock has dipped already quite a lot,
14:46 10% down today as well?
14:48 - Who knows where the stock is, Smriti, to be very honest.
14:51 It has fallen maybe 20, 20 and 10,
14:54 but 50% is already down since the last couple of days,
14:58 and the news flows out.
14:59 I don't recollect whether we have a coverage
15:01 on PayTV and about 190 for communication.
15:04 I would not want to put my neck out,
15:06 since I'm not sure about the coverage,
15:08 whether we should buy, sell, and own.
15:09 But let me give you just two pointer.
15:11 First of all, it is sad that Mr. Sharma
15:16 has landed himself in this position.
15:18 This situation could have been easily avoided
15:22 if they had compliance and ethics in place.
15:26 Because these two points were missing,
15:28 they are in a situation where they are,
15:29 and I'm sorry to say that the kind of statements
15:33 that the management is making,
15:34 I think it is really surprising to me,
15:37 and it doesn't go down well, honestly.
15:39 So, and in a situation like this,
15:41 when there is investigation,
15:43 and there are already statements made by the authority
15:46 that by mid of Feb or end of Feb or early March,
15:51 they are told them to wind up their maximum business,
15:55 whatever they have, there is a lot of uncertainty.
15:57 So, it's better that you kind of just be a little bit
16:02 cautious with respect to your decisions,
16:05 whether you want to invest or not.
16:07 I will not give a clear cut answer,
16:09 since we don't have coverage, according to my understanding.
16:11 - Okay, fair point.
16:12 I do want to throw this to you as well, Soni.
16:15 Right now, there are no buyers in the stock,
16:18 as evidenced by the fact that it's at lower circuit,
16:21 but if you are holding,
16:23 or if you are contemplating a contrarian view,
16:26 or a contrarian bet at this juncture,
16:29 because of the number of question marks
16:30 that really don't have any answers,
16:32 what should you bear in mind from a technical standpoint?
16:35 - I think, Alex, from technical charts,
16:38 it is actually quite weak,
16:39 and there are no such signs of any reversal as of yet.
16:43 In fact, 440 was the support,
16:45 it's just broken all supports that we can see,
16:48 and there's a weak down, you know, bearish biasness
16:52 that it can even test 350 odd levels,
16:54 so now, and then for the coming days.
16:57 So one definitely should probably look forward
16:59 to exit this stock,
17:01 and, you know, from a portfolio perspective,
17:02 can look for some other better stocks,
17:05 which can outperform.
17:06 So I think it's wise to form a technical perspective,
17:08 to just exit and avoid the stock from current levels.
17:11 - Fair point, all right.
17:12 Soni, as well as Gaurang,
17:14 we have to slip into a very quick break.
17:15 Viewers, we'll be back before you know it.
17:17 Keep your questions ready.
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21:29 - Welcome back.
21:38 You're watching Ask Prophet,
21:39 and we're in conversation with Gaurang Shah,
21:41 as well as Soni Patnaik.
21:42 The next question that we're taking is from Mohit,
21:45 and he's writing in from Ludhiana.
21:46 He's asking about NMDC, which he's bought at levels of 136.
21:50 He's also got 500 shares of NMDC steel against the demerger,
21:55 and he's got a time horizon of as much as two years.
21:58 Gaurang, with these two, what should he do?
22:00 Should he hold on?
22:01 - So NMDC would be a whole recommendation
22:05 from a long-term point of view on the fundamental side,
22:07 and I think the entire sector,
22:10 which is related to metals, ferrous, non-ferrous,
22:14 I think the consumption demand is going to be there,
22:19 possibly after the elections are done and dusted,
22:23 and we have a decisive outcome
22:24 as per everybody's expectations.
22:26 So that's point number one.
22:27 Point number two, a flat and long product prices,
22:30 we expect a slow and steady up-north revision,
22:34 and the input cost that was an overhang
22:36 on the margins percentage profitability,
22:39 that's also reducing.
22:40 - Right.
22:42 Next one, we have a question from Tanya,
22:44 and they're talking about Praj Industries.
22:46 They say that the stock,
22:48 their time period is around six months,
22:51 and the stock has corrected a bit in the last one month.
22:55 It has lost about 13% in trade.
22:57 Soni, from a six-month perspective,
23:00 is it a good time to enter the stock?
23:03 - I think from current levels,
23:06 I can see that there could be some more pain left,
23:09 and there could be a further downside dip
23:11 up to 440-odd levels.
23:14 That could be the turning point,
23:15 so one can hold up to 440, 420 as a good support range.
23:20 You know, from a six-month perspective,
23:21 if that level is getting defended and it can bounce back,
23:25 you can see again the targets coming off 520.
23:28 So 520 is a resistance on technical charts.
23:32 So the moment it has to cross again above 520
23:34 to see some further upside towards 600-odd levels,
23:37 I think that can be the period,
23:39 but definitely do hold as 420 stop-loss
23:42 for six-month period.
23:44 - Gaurang, very quickly,
23:45 there was one mention in the interim budget
23:48 of mandatory progressive blending of biogas with CNG,
23:54 and I believe that Praj Industries has a play here.
23:57 Is that something also to keep an eye on?
24:00 - It will be.
24:00 I won't comment on absolute clear buy-sell alone of Praj,
24:04 but Alex, I think this company has been
24:07 in the entire alternative clean green fuel business
24:12 for a pretty long period of time.
24:13 And my sense is that government mandating blending
24:18 of a particular percentage,
24:19 whether it is with ethanol towards diesel and petrol
24:22 or any other kind of alternative form,
24:25 the capital investment has to be done for the incumbents
24:29 to go and increase that percentage to a higher level.
24:33 So it is in a niche business.
24:35 Only thing is time is something that will be needed
24:39 for companies to start blending
24:41 and spur the expectation.
24:42 - A very old viewer of this program,
24:45 Sagar is writing in asking about Ramkey Infra,
24:48 which he's bought at sub-100 levels.
24:50 It's not a stock I think that is widely covered.
24:53 So I'm not sure if there is going to be a fundamental view,
24:56 but I will still check.
24:57 Ramkey Infra, he's 8x Gaurang at this juncture.
25:02 Any fundamental view?
25:03 - Well, you invest in stock markets
25:07 so that you can get 15, 20%.
25:09 When you get 8x,
25:10 I think you only have to laugh your way to the bank, Alex.
25:15 I'm not giving a straight out answer,
25:16 but I'll just refer my earlier point.
25:19 Once the election is done and dusted
25:21 and a decisive government in this place,
25:22 infrastructure activity is going to pick up even more.
25:26 By the virtue of that,
25:27 all the infrastructure related stories
25:30 like PNC, Infra, KNR constructions, HD, Infra,
25:33 and engineering, all of them are likely to do very, very well.
25:37 For this gentleman, I have no straight out answer
25:39 since we don't cover Ramkey Infra.
25:41 - But Soni on the technicals then,
25:43 and he's saying that he's sitting on massive quantity.
25:46 So not only will he be laughing his way to the bank,
25:49 he's also got something to spare.
25:52 So therefore, should he take some money off the table
25:54 and celebrate this weekend?
25:57 - Absolutely, Alex.
25:58 I think from a technical perspective,
26:00 all technicals will always advise to book the profits
26:04 and wait for a certain dip to re-enter or re-initiate your loans.
26:07 Or even if the gentleman is not willing to take the profits out,
26:11 at least keep a trailing stop losses to 750.
26:14 That seems to be a very important support.
26:16 If it's not breaking,
26:17 it can definitely bounce back towards 850, 900 odd range.
26:20 I think that can again be a level
26:22 where you can book your final profits.
26:24 - All right. Next up, we're talking about Trident.
26:27 This one's from Shivansh.
26:29 He wants to know if this is a good time to buy.
26:31 Korang, if this is part of your coverage,
26:35 do tell us if there are any targets for the stock as well.
26:39 - Again, Smriti, we don't cover this stock.
26:42 So I think Soni would be in a better position.
26:44 - And anything in the textile space that you're constructive on?
26:50 - So Vardhaman Textile is one.
26:52 Raymonds is the other one that we are positive on.
26:54 These are the two in this.
26:55 - All right. And Soni on Trident, good time to buy the stock?
27:01 - I think technically, from a very short-term perspective,
27:05 45 is the support.
27:06 So even if you're buying at current levels,
27:08 which is around 47.1, so keep a stop loss of 45
27:12 and max the target that we can see is 51.
27:16 Above that, it can go to 53.
27:18 So these are the sort of targets from current levels.
27:21 - Okay. I think we already kind of referred to this with Korang.
27:25 So I'm just going to go to Soni, you on this one.
27:28 KPI Green as well as Vari, both of these stocks have done incredibly well,
27:33 particularly Vari in the recent past. Vamsi is asking,
27:37 is this the right time to sell if you are holding right now?
27:43 - I think, you know, it's wise to just take your profits and, you know,
27:48 just from the Vari, I think it's better to just take your profits.
27:51 There could be a resistance that can be seen coming ahead.
27:54 Just wait for some dip, some minor correction of 5 to 6% to re-enter the longs Vari.
28:00 But talking about KPI Green,
28:02 I think KPI Green is still looking like quite a strong buy from even from current levels.
28:06 So, you know, maybe you could partake some of your portfolio to KPI Green instead
28:11 and there's a multiple support that can be seen at the level of 2000 to 1900
28:16 from a medium-term perspective.
28:18 So I think that stock can do fairly well, keep a stop loss of 1900
28:22 and in a positional basis target can be 2400.
28:26 - All right. That's all the time we have on this edition of Ask Profit.
28:30 Thank you, Gaurang and Soni for joining us and for answering so many questions for us.
28:35 And viewers, we'll be back tomorrow, same time at 11.30 a.m.
28:40 But stay tuned, lots more coming up on NDTV Profit.
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