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00:00 out 20,000 for 85 crore rupees market cap so far and state bank of India reported their q3 numbers
00:08 on saturday the bank reported a 35 percent drop in profitability however showing an improvement
00:14 on the asset quality front the nashville credit guarantee trustee company has issued a forensic
00:22 audit on bandhan bank that's an ndtv exclusive and we'll get you more details on it on the show
00:38 hello and welcome you're watching hot money i'm hiral dadia let's quickly take a look how markets
00:45 are panning at this hour uh overall you are seeing some momentum that's picking up after a flat start
00:51 if you could just have nifty 50 on the screens and then the broader markets as well that will
00:55 give you a flavor there you go three tenths of a percent higher now we're above the 21 900 mark
01:01 in terms of bank 50 as well it's going to be interesting and the psu space is absolutely
01:06 buzzing and trade bank 50 seeing marginal cuts of around one tenth of a percent and if you see the
01:11 psu bank index which is up almost 1.3 percent but if you see the pse index that's the public
01:17 center enterprises that will be showing you some great returns as well there you go three and a
01:21 half percent at the day's highest levels a lot of buzz coming in there and all of them reacting to
01:26 the kind of announcements that we've heard from the budget as well the allocations that have gone
01:31 up uh overall if you see in terms of broader markets as well the mid-cap and the small cap
01:35 index let's pull up that on the screens and see what's happening on that front there you go mid
01:39 cap is up seven tenths of a percent outperforming the benchmark indices in trade and you have the
01:44 small cap index which is up nine tenths of a percent so a lot of stock specific action
01:48 that we're seeing in today's day of trade our guest who will be joining us in today's session
01:54 is ashish maheshwari director at arihant capital market uh you know to discuss all the stocks that
02:01 are on our radar but star health insurance is another stock uh that isn't focused on the back
02:07 of earnings profits are up around 38 percent and clearly it has beat street estimates as well my
02:12 colleague monal is in conversation uh with the chief financial officer at star health that is
02:18 mr nilesh kamble let's hear out that conversation there is enough and more opportunity for growth
02:25 for the segment and for the well-being of the society as a whole so if we had to look at your
02:31 retail and group proportions the retail segment has always been the stronger one but we've seen
02:36 a stronger growth in q3 in the group segment as well so what is your focus area and are you
02:42 planning to look at more group health insurance policies um can you just give us an insight
02:49 yes so when it comes to retail segment we are around 94 percent of the portfolio for us is
02:56 retail and six percent is group in the group segment we are growing very strong in the bank
03:00 insurance portfolio which is non-employer employee uh segment on the employee segment as well employer
03:06 employee segment we are focusing on smb business which is profitable so the theme for us is good
03:11 profitable business where we want to grow our business and just not bring in top line for the
03:16 sake of it so so what what exactly would be your growth parameters here i mean what um what
03:23 segments are you targeting uh not just in terms of retail and group what i mean is in terms of
03:28 channels and where do you identify the next leg of growth for star health will come from
03:33 see when it comes to channels we have agency channel which is our
03:38 you know biggest channel we continue to grow in this segment in agency channel what we have done
03:43 is we have identified certain geographies certain categories of business which are loss making and
03:47 we don't want to focus on those areas but when it comes to good geographies which means you know the
03:53 south of india the east of india we continue to grow very strong in that segment digital and bank
03:58 again we are focusing a lot of attention we have done a lot of investment and these channels are
04:03 doing really well for us today 33 percent of our new business comes from digital and bank channels
04:09 and again in the group segment you know the sme segment is a focus area where we want to grow
04:13 our business so that's the management of star finance clearly in conversation
04:20 with monal but moving on let's welcome in our guest as well to discuss all the stocks that are
04:27 in focus in today's session ashish maheshwari director at arihant capital joins in the stocks
04:33 we are discussing today is one star health tata motors upl bandhan bank paytm bharti et al lic
04:40 as well as the power psus that are in focus in today's day of trade and we're just picking up
04:45 a couple of flashes at the bottom of your screens if you see on the alcohol companies because this
04:51 is going to be an interesting space to watch out for on the back of uh the news that we are picking
04:56 up so far we'll come back to that one uh ashish good morning good afternoon i beg your pardon and
05:01 welcome to the show uh how are you viewing a star health finance because uh clearly if you go to see
05:08 a good growth coming in in terms of profitability the ni has improved as well uh what would you
05:13 advise if overall if you see how the lic stock is performing ultimately all these
05:23 companies the stock will also start doing well in fact there was some disappointment until
05:29 september 20 uh 2023 result but i think uh numbers which came in december 2023
05:37 net profit went up by from 123 to almost 290 crore uh is quite promising and what are the
05:46 they have changed the premium to family health and policy uh which management said last time also
05:54 the result of a change or increase in premium will start coming in from the next quarter onward so
06:01 those things are happening now and in my view sector is that sunrise stage healthcare sector
06:08 and this stock has not given those kind of little which other insurance companies have given so uh
06:16 looks good at this price point so that's with regards to star health moving on you have
06:21 imfl companies that are in focus as well and this is on the back of the news that we are picking up
06:25 by kerala has gone ahead and hiked imfl prizes uh this is going to be an interesting move and this
06:32 is uh in the form of excise duty the excise duty has been hiked by kerala stocks like united
06:39 spirits united breweries you have tilak nagar industries radico kheerthan global spirits
06:47 some distilleries all of this that will be in focus as well on the back of this uh very quickly
06:53 30 seconds ashish uh how do you look at this do you think this will be a pass through because
06:58 excise duty has been hiked by rupees 10 per liter and they will be able to garner around 200 odd
07:03 crores and that is what the kerala fm has indicated so far so i'm sure they are going to pass through
07:11 none of these companies are going to uh keep this excise duty hike uh on liquor with them but only
07:17 thing is like if they increase the volume there might be if they increase the price there might
07:23 be some uh you know issues related to the volume but i don't think so the impact is too much because
07:30 kerala is a typical market where the small size segment liquor is sold widely and companies like
07:36 tilak nagar industries and uh your radico kheerthan etc are prominent uh players in that segment
07:43 but in my view this is just a knee jerk reaction and sector is slightly out of fancy this is the
07:49 reason you are witnessing this fall but ultimately these are the this will be passed on to customers
07:56 so okay so this is going to be a pass on as well though there is some bit of pressure that's
08:00 building in on these counters baron beverages is another one that we need to address at least
08:05 right now uh overall they've just reported numbers revenues at 2006 68 crores uh you are seeing a
08:12 mild spike that's coming in there but the stock is in the negative 144 odd crores is the profit
08:17 number versus a 81 or 82 odd crores is what is reported the stock is down around three tenths of
08:23 a percent trying to recover uh from the day's lowest levels and come back into the green let's
08:28 see what the margin picture looks like over here because usually the third quarter sometimes is a
08:32 slightly soft cough quarter uh in the lag end from december jan onwards but overall there is that
08:39 pressure that's building and this is a company which is highly valued as well so that's with
08:44 regards to tata motor sorry i beg your pardon of our own beverages but moving on tata motors
08:49 reported their numbers as well a smart move coming in on that this counter winner joins by to tell
08:56 us more in terms of uh winner firstly what is working for the company so far and what are
09:02 brokerages making out of it that the stock is up almost seven to eight percent in trade today
09:06 yeah hi and so first of all the profit more than the world so uh and it was a significant beat on
09:13 the consensus estimates and that we are seeing the result is on the stock it has risen quite
09:18 significantly today and if you look at why this uh optimism around the company is it is because
09:25 of jlr so jlr's order book is the main reason that the analysts are giving so much positive
09:31 commentary for the company if you look at the company's order book right now it is one it was
09:36 148k at the end of q3 it is expected to decline but what is interesting here is that the high
09:43 margin models comprise 55 to 60 percent of sales and 76 of the order book so uh obviously analysis
09:51 analysts are expecting that the good uh revenue and performance of jlr will continue in the coming
09:57 quarters because even if the order book declines in the coming quarters you can still have some
10:04 cushion for the fi25 and as analysts have said that the next leg of growth will be driven by jlr
10:11 jlr you can see the moti oswal has said that it expects a bit margin to reach 9.9 percent by fi26
10:19 and now i said that the success of jlr's evs may drive re-rating as well right thanks for getting
10:27 us the details so this is interesting one 1100 is the target by jeffries thousand by motilal oswal
10:33 and 1028 by a mcquadee the stock is trading at levels of around 937 ashish tara motors already
10:41 a multi-bagger in 2023 with the performance and the commentary that we've heard and the kind of
10:47 order book that they have with regards to jlr another multi-bagger again in the making for 2024
10:54 i agree with you another multi-bagger in making in 2024 and even my target for the stock will be 1200
11:02 plus because the way other automobile companies have performed i think still a lot is still to be
11:10 captured by in that price and by tata motors and the kind of numbers which they have come as
11:17 phenomenal 7 000 crore profit in for the quarter because you are used to this at these kind of
11:23 losses in particular this company for so many years and now almost one lakh ten thousand
11:28 crore worth of sales and 300 basis point improvement in the margins so everything
11:34 is going right in the car as far as tata motors is concerned even now along with jlr also the
11:40 indian markets are also picking up and they're the kind of lead they have taken into evs etc
11:46 i think momentum will continue in the stock and maybe in the month of february i'm expecting it
11:52 will uh you will see in a four digits right a four digit stock in the month of february is what
11:59 ashish is saying let's wait and watch but let's quickly slip into a short break ashish stay with
12:03 us we have a lot more to discuss uh for the benefit of the viewers so this is any tv profit
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15:16 welcome back you're watching hot money now one stock that is under pressure in today's day of
15:20 trade is uh upl it's interesting to see how you know speciality chemical companies have been taking
15:26 a beating this was a quarter where managements had indicated that the revival could start but
15:31 does not seem to be the situation revenues are down 27 margins have contracted as well
15:36 varsha if you can highlight for us what has gone wrong numbers absolutely evident but what has
15:43 led to that and secondly what brokerages are making out of it so hi heroes as you rightly
15:48 said upl is under pressure now this is on the back of weak result posted by the company completed
15:53 post net loss of almost 1600 crores now revenue decline was led by destocking then low channel
15:59 invent demand in north america and europe and also ongoing pricing pressure especially in brazil
16:04 now if you see a company is expecting the revival from q2 fy 25 and also it expects volume decline
16:12 neuron here but sequentially volume to grow also if you see the brokerages view to say city has a
16:18 buy rating on the company while nuama has a reduced rating and nimble bung has a accumulated rating
16:24 now all the three brokerages have reduced their target price now this is on the back of they see
16:29 near-term challenges on high inventory declining agrochemical prices also if you see risk of credit
16:35 rating downgrades and pressure on balance sheet is a concern according to these brokerages and
16:40 cash flow generation and debt repayment remains key monitorable also they also see margin under
16:46 pressure on weakness in key markets and inventory restocking coming in two to three quarters
16:51 right thanks varsha for getting us the details that's upl and ghcl as well
16:56 which reported numbers weakness has continued on that one as well that's upl if we can have a ghcl
17:02 there you go six percent down tick we did speak to the management there as well ashish how are
17:07 you looking at both these companies and do you think this is a good opportunity to buy
17:12 market uh if companies are coming out with poor set of numbers uh investors are going to buy in
17:21 zippy i think you can leave them alone for quite for some time and once there is some promising
17:29 numbers or there's some revival uh in their demand that's a key then only you should buy
17:34 so upl another worrying factor is their interest cost has gone up from 871 crore to almost 11
17:41 almost 1200 crore is the interest cost which has gone up um and there are some
17:46 perils of being a global company because now we have a lot of drought like situation in south
17:52 america and the market is not picking up in north america also so all uh those issues are coming in
17:58 upl so my situation will be i still not to buy upl as well ghcl is concerned again below their
18:06 estimates are the numbers and the pen numbers are going to be like this surely you are going to get
18:11 punished so both are avoided in my view avoid in terms of both these counters moving on
18:18 the national credit guarantee trustee company has actually issued a forensic audit on bandhan bank
18:26 and this is an ndtv exclusive my colleague pragati oberoi joins us with the details pragati
18:31 what are you picking up why the forensic audit yes you know you're absolutely right the ncgtc
18:37 has called in a forensic audit of bandhan bank's credit guarantee portfolios which are worth
18:42 23 300 crore rupees now the catchword here is forensic audit because when in when an organization
18:48 like ncgtc conducts a forensic audit it is usually when there are suspicions of malice like ever
18:54 greening of loans or creation of fictitious accounts now the whole context of this story
18:59 lies in a 9th january exchange filing when bandhan bank posted and said that uh the audit that is
19:06 being conducted is just for a cgfmu portfolio worth about 1290 crore rupees but our findings
19:14 of uh based on a document that we have reviewed revealed that actually the audit is of the entire
19:19 portfolio of cgfmu claim and the n and the uh eclgs claim and both these claims total amount
19:27 to 23 300 crore rupees sources have also told us that ncgtc actually conducted a preliminary audit
19:34 in late 2023 when they found discrepancies or they were not sure exactly of what happened that's when
19:40 they initiated the entire forensic audit of the entire credit guarantee portfolio for the timeline
19:46 for example the cgfmu portfolio is for fi 21 and the eclgs portfolio which is under
19:52 the forensic audit is from uh march 2020 to june 30 2021 that's the catch here we'll bring you more
20:00 updates as and when we have them thanks pragati for getting us the details the stock is under
20:04 pressure uh very quickly ashish how are you looking at a bandhan bank because we are running slightly
20:10 over time yeah already is under performer stock if you see compared to other private sector banking
20:17 with ps and this was the concern even highlighted after the q2 numbers the cgfmu portfolio are
20:25 having some issues and audit is going on stock has already corrected at that time also but uh
20:31 it's still uh the stock is under that correction uh more than until there is clarity what is going
20:38 to happen and oppose the audit outcome i think the stocks will continue to uh we'll end the
20:44 pressure so i just avoid uh at this price uh in my way right so that's an avoid on abundant bank
20:51 stay with us we'll quickly slip into a short break and discuss lots more once we are back on ndtv
20:56 profit
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23:27 welcome back lic that's a stock to focus on stock has crossed thousand rupees for the first time
23:34 ever 1028 is what the day's high is in terms of lic a lot of investors that are happy with this
23:41 harsh what are you picking up what's really working for lic to see this again market cap
23:47 crossing six lakh crore and it is you know i mean above the ipo price now well absolutely here i'll
23:55 cause for cheer especially for patient investors who waited through all since the ipo till date
24:01 and you know essentially what's happened is it's been a dramatic re-rating with regard to
24:06 valuations itself so let me talk a bit about that because that is going to be the key piece
24:11 you're seeing valuations which have gone from half times uh price to ev to now almost one time
24:19 price to ev is gone from sub 550 all the way to uh thousand plus and essentially it was valued at
24:27 even lower than its book or intrinsic value and therefore what we've seen is a d rating but outside
24:33 of that even the fundamentals seem to be getting better they've guided for a better h2 which is h2
24:39 fi 24 growth number they're also expecting margins to improve margins have already improved quite a
24:45 bit from sub 10 percent at the ipo stage all the way now above the 15 mark and they're stabilizing
24:51 there so that is the other positive so plenty of positives their new product pipeline launched
24:57 more focus on non-par more profitable products and all of that is obviously reflecting on the price
25:02 as well as ought to reflect on valuations as well right ought to reflect on price and valuations and
25:07 whether a re-rating from here on could be on the cards is anyone's guess thank you harsh but very
25:13 quickly few stocks that are up in trade is the power psu bank nhbc sjvn and power grid and this
25:20 is on the back of the increase in the budgetary allocations that we've seen all of them are buzzing
25:25 in trade very quickly ashish what's your view on the power psus and what would you advise investors
25:30 to do because it's already seen a good run up this will buy will be my strategy all the psu
25:37 and stock which are into the power segment because one thing is clear that whatever the government has
25:42 increased the budget outlay on this sector most of it will be channelized through nhbc or sjvn
25:48 or irida etc because now government is focusing more and more on this particular sector which is
25:55 renewable energy so these stocks will go to a roof or it will go to places whatever you may call
26:02 but all are buying my view i think sjvn is very promising after irida touching the five percent
26:09 circuit every day as jvn maybe soon crossing irida in short along with the sjvn along with the
26:17 jvn i think nhbc pfc rec all are good stock in this particular sector because rec is again a
26:24 known agency for that right so all power psu is a buy at this current point in time thank you
26:31 ashish so much for joining us on the show and sharing your views we're completely out of time
26:35 on this edition of hot money thanks for watching and lots more lined up on the other side please
26:39 stay tuned to ndtv profit
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28:48 thanks for tuning into the portfolio manager i'm your host niraj shah and our guest today
29:00 is rahul chadha founder and ceo of shikra investments he's very well known in the indian
29:05 circles and the global circles and it's a pleasure to have him in our studios now great having you
29:09 thanks for talking taking the time out thanks for having me here today yeah and and you know
29:13 that the perspective that you bring from a global level for uh for assessing risks and thereby
29:21 people trying to figure out what what kind of portfolios can one have by a derivative of this
29:28 conversation will be very useful this may not be as much about a portfolio that you are creating
29:32 because i believe portfolios will get created under shikra over a while but but would love to
29:37 start off by asking you about how do you see from your vantage point the optimism around india at a
29:45 point of time when the em optimism is not so high and the growth in various economies again india
29:51 kind of stands out because the world may not necessarily have the strongest state of growth
29:55 in 2024 so there is if you look at that framework see there is a reason why optimism about india is
30:01 high because if we see over the last four five years the policy makers seem to do no wrong so
30:08 life is all about making choices and what we've seen is consistently good right choices made on
30:14 a macroeconomic front and i think that kind of and explains why we've seen a lot of optimism this is
30:21 this is the fiscal prudence which the finance minister kind of reiterated it yesterday you look
30:27 at what happened around covid and we got very badly impacted as a country i mean there but still
30:34 karma kind of and heads prevailed and and the sops we gave the benefits we gave were limited to the
30:41 people who really needed it rather than have a huge amount of debt on balance sheet of a country
30:46 and give handouts for everybody so i think that was the first mature thought and the way we handled
30:50 covid was good and coming out of covid i mean now the the gst collections and there is a reason why
30:56 gst collections are so good over the years because look the government machinery is implemented gst
31:02 well they've gone through multiple iterations as they say they've learned fast they failed fast and
31:07 quickly improve whatever the gaps were there and that's why we've got the benefits and those those
31:12 benefits of high gst collections have not been frittered away in short-term gains to win votes
31:19 which used to happen in the past but have been put in gainful infrastructure projects
31:25 which have multi-year economic benefits and i think that's playing out and that is what
31:30 globally investors are noticing and this is happening at a time where we're seeing policy
31:36 making deteriorate in most parts of the world like i live in new york and i see what is happening in
31:41 new york you look at the u.s bond yields and today when u.s economy is kind of an red hot piping hot
31:48 u.s is still running a fiscal deficit of six percent there's a fair bit of an anger in the
31:53 society on a large amount of population being left out look i consider myself relatively well off but
31:59 when i do a three thousand dollar monthly i would go for health insurance and still i pray that i
32:05 don't fall sick in u.s and come to india for treatment there is something wrong and i think
32:09 that is something which is which is being done right by the policy makers in india they're
32:17 creating the right framework so that the businessmen whether it's the local or the global
32:23 companies come and invest in the country and i think that is what they want to do markets can go
32:27 up and down and markets can let's not be too much worried about markets from a near-term perspective
32:33 what matters is are we on the path to become the third largest economy are we strengthening our
32:39 institutions are we moving towards becoming a developed nation yeah yeah most certainly
32:45 so tell me let's kind of divvy up this into two if you will and i would love to know more about
32:52 shikara as well it's an interesting name congratulations on that i really like it
32:55 but let's try and think about this from a two perspective so i'm presuming your firm is not
33:01 an india focused thing it is focusing on various economies in the world because you have a global
33:06 role in the past as well in your previous assignment so tell us if you were a portfolio
33:11 manager sitting globally as you will be or as you are and thinking of where to allocate right which
33:16 economies which countries to allocate where would the port how much of this portfolio would be bent
33:22 towards say a market like india which is growing well but which is for lack of a better word
33:27 expensive relative to everything else around comparable yeah so let me first kind of talk
33:35 about shikara at the genesis and look i left my previous firm end september and there was this
33:39 time to think about what one wanted to do and when i came with this name shikara being in new york
33:44 most people said look it's going to be hard for americans to pronounce why don't you have a
33:48 mountain a tree or some forest here and my point was look i'm very very proud of my indian heritage
33:54 and i want something which reflects that so shikara is a sanskrit word which stands for peak
33:58 and as we know in markets are going to be tough and those mountain peaks or those top of the
34:05 whatever spires of the temples etc were always a vantage point to see the approaching enemy so
34:11 that's that's what shikara stands for the peak which is a vantage points for markets and that's
34:17 where it is the way we look at the whole structure is i along with some senior police i'm going to
34:23 be in new york but look every three months i'm some part of asia it's india hong kong korea etc
34:30 so i'm constantly traveling we will have team in hong kong seasoned professionals which will give
34:36 us on ground sense insights of what's happening in in china korea taiwan etc we'll have team in
34:44 mumbai so it's going to be truly kind of an global asset manager and the hope is which is what we
34:52 were discussing before that when we grew up when we came in the industry the top names in the asset
34:58 management business globally were of the western lineage the european names the the american names
35:06 the idea is to build something which every indian every asian is proud of hopefully this is just the
35:11 beginning of the dream but look the intentions are good the values are high as they say luck favors
35:17 the braver yeah most certainly so well and i'm sure it will turn out well with your experience
35:22 and with the team that you're talking about and and therefore i'm trying to peek of it further
35:26 into it how would you therefore because you have the option of investing or because you will have
35:31 the option of investing across the world if you will what would an ideal global portfolio look
35:37 like if you were doing this right now so we would start with the emerging markets or i would say
35:43 more specifically asia front so india is a market we'd like there are times the market goes through
35:48 this periods of overvaluation as we said today probably that portfolio or exposure to india
35:53 would be 20 25 percent this is a market we like from a medium longer term perspective
35:58 look there is a bit of a slowdown in the economy we've seen soft numbers i think the numbers for
36:04 next quarter will be also soft liquidity is tight government capex into the elections is going to
36:10 slow down some of the clamp down on unsecured lending may hurt the economy from a discretionary
36:17 consumption in the short term but it kind of prevents a bigger bubble from a medium term so i
36:22 i must congratulate and i'm fairly appreciative of rbi being such a proactive kind of an institution
36:30 doing doing these measures so india is a market like the way i said from a from a medium term we
36:35 like outside that i think in the second half there is an opportunity in china that market's
36:41 been almost written off by the market participants and what we're seeing is authorities clearly wake
36:46 up to the fact that deflation is getting entrenched in the economy and they've reached that stage
36:52 where they'll do whatever it takes to revive the economy and i don't think the market participants
36:57 have priced that market for that or are making in that situation so i think there is an opportunity
37:06 which may which may come in chinese stocks and these stocks can rally 30 40 percent though i
37:14 think one one adjustment which is pending in china is the remember the adjustment so highly likely
37:20 that with with pvoc focused on increasing domestic liquidity over currency what we may see over next
37:27 six months is some slippage in the currency i won't be surprised if remember goes to eight etc