Power PSU Stocks In Focus | Large Trades | NDTV Profit - video Dailymotion

NDTV Profit

-Reviewing #BikajiFoods' Q3 results - #UCOBank saw multiple large trades through today's session   Hiral Dadia brings you the bulk and block deal highlights of the day on 'Large Trades'. #NDTVProfitLive   Guest list: Manoj Verma, COO, Bikaji Foods International Rishabh Jain,CFO, Bikaji Foods International _______________________________________________________   For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/ Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports Follow NDTV Profit here Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ndtvprofit/ #ndtvprofit #stockmarket #news #ndtv #business #finance #mutualfunds #sharemarket Share Market News | NDTV Profit LIVE | NDTV Profit LIVE News | Business News LIVE | Finance News | Mutual Funds | Stocks To Buy | Stock Market LIVE News | Stock Market Latest Updates | Sensex Nifty LIVE | Nifty Sensex LIVE

Transcript

00:00 Look how markets are panning out at this hour. Overall, if you see in terms of Nifty 50,

00:05 we are above the 21,900 mark, 21,941 with gains of four-tenths of a percent coming in

00:10 there. Some bit of a recovery happening in Bank Nifty as well, but it's underperforming

00:14 the benchmark indices. It's the PSU space that is buzzing in trade today. So, if you

00:19 see the PSU Bank Index as well as the PSC Index, smart gains coming in on both these

00:24 indices. There you go. The PSU Bank Index also near the day's highest levels with gains

00:28 of 1.3 percent and the PSE Index which is up almost around 3.6 percent as we speak.

00:35 Top gainers today, Coal India, 6.5 percent up move on that one. Tata Motors reacting

00:39 to numbers. BPCL seeing some smart moves, Cipla is up in trade as well as Power Grid.

00:45 In fact, when you talk about power, you have NHPC, NTPC, Power Grid as well as the SGBN.

00:51 All your power PSUs which are having a strong run in today's session and that's mainly

00:56 on the way, the allocations that have increased in the interim budget. UPL, a 9.5 percent

01:02 downtick coming in with regards to UPL and that's mainly on the way the numbers have

01:06 panned out. Clearly, the recovery that we were expected to start seeing from the third

01:11 quarter, that seems to be getting pushed away as well. And with the UPL, you have a GHCL

01:16 also which reported numbers and similar kind of pressures building in there. So, there

01:20 is a downtick coming in with regards to GHCL, 7.5 percent at the day's lows. Parthi Airtel

01:25 ahead of numbers is down 2.5 percent. Bajaj Twins are trading under pressure. Grasam is

01:30 down. Geo Financial Services is an interesting one along with Paytm. Let's pull up Geo Financial

01:36 Services as well. There you go. 16 to 17 percent up move coming in on this counter trading

01:41 at the day's highest levels. And what's happening is Paytm's wallet business loss is becoming

01:47 a gain for a lot of other financial companies. Paytm, there you go, 10 percent downtick.

01:53 And you have a LIC that is in focus as well in today's day of trade. In fact, all your

01:56 life insurance companies which are buzzing. But moving on, Bikaji Foods, that's a stock

02:02 to look at. Let's pull that one on the screens. If you see in terms of the top line at 23

02:06 percent growth coming in there. Profits have also improved. Margins have seen an improvement

02:11 as well on a year-on-year basis. Again, on the highlight basis, the volume growth around

02:17 29.5 percent is what we're looking at. The stock is seeing gains of around nine tenths

02:22 of a percent. To discuss more in terms of what's worked and what is expected going ahead,

02:30 Manoj Verma, CEO at Bikaji Foods as well as Rishabh Jain, CFO at Bikaji Foods joins. And

02:35 welcome to the show, gentlemen. Thank you, Anjali.

02:39 Firstly, Manoj, let me come to you overall. From a business perspective, what has worked,

02:45 what has not worked and has it met your internal expectations?

02:49 So I think overall, this quarter has been a very good quarter for us. And, you know,

02:53 numbers speak louder than for what I see. So a revenue growth of 22.9 percent and a

03:00 volume growth of 29 percent plus, which is an ever-highest kind of a growth. But certainly,

03:06 yes, this is backed by a very good festive season wherein our gifting and foods are categorized

03:12 extremely well. In terms of what could have been better is I think what we felt was there

03:17 is a rural slowdown in this quarter, what we felt. Also, if you look at in terms of,

03:24 you know, the monsoons, delayed monsoons, which perhaps has impacted this rural business

03:30 and also, you know, very peak winters and delayed winters, I'm sure you would have really

03:35 heard that this is after many, many years, you know, this kind of winters was there.

03:40 So I think, you know, these two factors were the factors which perhaps would have slowed

03:50 down things. But overall for us, it's been a good quarter, be it the top line or be it

03:55 the bottom line growth.

03:57 Is this something, you know, overall this trend will continue? And if so, what's the

04:02 kind of growth you're looking at in terms of FY24?

04:07 If you look at on a YDD basis, the kind of growth what we have delivered, right, so which

04:11 is about 14% in terms of value. And in the beginning of the year, the guidance what we

04:18 gave was about 16 to 18% kind of a volume growth. I think, you know, as an organization,

04:24 we would live up to it and we'll deliver that kind of growth. That's what is our expectation.

04:29 In terms of opening up, yes, you know, the first 15 days of January were again under

04:37 the acute winter pressure. But things are now picking up and we're very hopeful for

04:44 this quarter again.

04:45 Right. Rishabh, coming to you, you know, with the growth that we're looking at and the outlook

04:50 that you have, ROE of around 20%, ROCE of around 27%, is that something which is continuable

05:01 or do you think it could be better from here on?

05:03 See, currently we are utilizing close to 46, 47% of overall capacity. Our target is to

05:11 take this to 70, 75% utilization in next three and a half years. That's the target we are

05:16 putting on. In last two and a half years, we have put up majority of capacity in all

05:20 of the core market as well as focus market. So we have put up capacity now. It's planned

05:24 to utilize the same in a more aggressive way. That's what we are doing on. Overall, at the

05:29 industry level, the category is growing at 10, 11% and we are growing it close to 70,

05:33 18%. So that's a growth what we are looking at it from volume perspective. And that's

05:37 what we're targeting on for next year also. For FY25 also, we are targeting close to 16%

05:42 type of volume, 16 to 18% volume growth. That's what we are looking for.

05:46 So Rishabh, when you talk about capacity expansion as well, between ethnic snacks, packet sweets,

05:52 Western snacks and papad, where is that expansion going to come into? And to then how do you

05:58 expect the revenue mix to change?

06:02 So more of basically our capacity target should be growing it around Western snacks and Namkeen

06:10 category. That's what we are focusing on. And major minority capacity addition is in

06:14 this two category. And we have set up all the plant in each part of India, be it Assam

06:21 or Bihar. So majority addition is in Namkeen and Western snacks category. Majority of growth

06:27 will shift towards these two categories. Of course, Bhujiya is our core, but all the addition

06:31 is in these two categories.

06:34 And with regards to the capacity expansion as well, how are you funding it and how much

06:41 inputs or funds are going to be required for the same from here on?

06:44 So we are committed to our CapEx commitment. So in FY24, we are committed to our CapEx

06:50 commitment. We have received a PLI of close to Rs. 261 crore, in which we have committed

06:57 to the government of India in PLI that we will invest close to Rs. 400 crore under CapEx

07:02 commitment. And we will complete our CapEx commitment by FY24. For the next two years,

07:07 we will not require majority of funding CapEx. It will just be a regular maintenance CapEx

07:12 for NPD. That's the commitment. That's the CapEx we will do.

07:17 Okay. Overall, you know, Manoj, if I talk about the outlets, right, 23,000 outlets in

07:24 Q3, the plan is to reach 2.5 lakh outlets by FY24. Correct me if I'm wrong there. If

07:33 this happens and if you're on track to do this, how much revenue addition are you expecting

07:38 to see?

07:39 So as we've closed this last quarter, so by December, our direct reach has gone up to

07:46 2.31 lakh outlets, right? The budget or the target what our sales team are carrying is

07:52 to reach to 2.5 lakh outlets by end of this year. See, when we add these new accounts,

07:58 right, so it is not that they're not selling because if you talk in terms of reach, we

08:03 are already available close to 1 million outlets. That's where the presence is if we refer to

08:07 needs and data. You know, what happens is that, you know, when we bring these accounts

08:12 in our direct reach, so the quality of coverage, you know, is, you know, enhances. So, you

08:17 know, then there's a focus on all products and all that stuff. So it will not be, you

08:22 know, right to quantify that what each additional account gives. It's also the quality of, you

08:28 know, coverage. But some totally, you know, one is to deliver, say, 15% value growth.

08:33 So I'm sure this expansion is one of a large growth driver to it.

08:40 Okay. And overall, my last question coming to you is, what's the visibility that you

08:46 have with regards to FY25 and to which segments will be growth drivers?

08:53 So as Vishal said, that the capacities what we have built for ourselves is majorly on

08:59 namkeens and Western snacks. So you will see, you know, higher growth from both these segments

09:05 or these categories coming in. That's what we look at for next year. And I think overall,

09:11 now if we look at, so we would be in the same space about 16 to 18% volume growth in the

09:17 next year also. That's what is the plan.

09:19 Right. So that's with regards to where overall business is concerned and the outlook for

09:25 FY25. Thank you, Manoj. Thank you, Rishabh, so much for joining us on the show and sharing

09:30 your views with regards to what's in store. So that's with regards to Bikaji Foods. Let's

09:34 just pull up a long term chart as well with regards to Bikaji. Today we're seeing some

09:38 gains of around eight tenths to nine tenths of a percent. But in the last 12 months, 47

09:44 to 48 percent is the kind of returns that we've already seen in one year. So that's

09:49 with regards to Bikaji Foods. But let's quickly slip into a short break. Lots more lined up

09:55 on the other side. A couple of large trades that have happened. Let's understand what's

10:00 in store for all those companies. Our research team will be joining us shortly.

10:03 [MUSIC]

10:13 [MUSIC]

10:23 [MUSIC]

10:33 [MUSIC]

10:43 [MUSIC]

10:53 [MUSIC]

11:18 [MUSIC]

11:43 [MUSIC]

12:08 [MUSIC]

12:33 [MUSIC]

12:58 [MUSIC]

13:23 [MUSIC]

13:33 Welcome back. One stock that is up in trade today is a Yuco Bank. 20 percent, almost an

13:44 eight year high that the stock has hit. And this is after two block deals that have happened

13:51 on the counter. Right now, the stock is seeing gains of 17 to 18 percent. Now, what is it

13:57 and why is it that we're seeing this kind of a buzz? My colleague Varsha joins in to

14:01 get us more. Varsha, what are you picking up with regards to Yuco Bank? Because we do

14:06 see some bit of volume uptick that has happened. And what's in focus here?

14:10 So, hi, here. As you rightly said, currently it is trading over 18 percent. Now, this is

14:16 on the back of large trade that has happened, almost 2.43 crores change hands in large trade

14:22 today. Now, buyers and sellers are not known immediately. But there are a few things, interesting

14:27 things that I want to highlight. If you see the total outstanding shares of this bank

14:31 is almost 1,196 crores. Now, of this, 25 percent is hold by public, which stands at almost

14:38 60 crores, while 95 percent is held by government. Now, if you see Friday, almost 11.2 crore

14:45 shares traded, which is almost 20 percent of public shareholding. And volume of the

14:50 last five days is at 2.5x of its 30-day average. So, considering this as a low free-float stock,

14:59 the demand is really high for this stock. And this is the reason we are seeing in last

15:03 five days, if you see, the stock performance company has given almost 40 percent growth

15:11 to its investors, while in last one month, if you see, returns has been almost 43 percent.

15:16 Now, this is on the back of earnings, which were posted by companies. So, total business

15:20 grew almost 10 percent year on year and 4 percent quarter on quarter. Also, gross advances

15:25 grew by 18 percent year on year. And company did see improvement on gross NPA and net NPA

15:32 as well. Right. So, that's with regards to where Yuco

15:35 Bank goes, 17 to 18 percent is the kind of gains that we are seeing on this one. And

15:40 if you see in terms of the other banks as well, which are up and about in trade today,

15:45 you have the likes of IOB, which is up almost 15 to 16 percent as we speak. So, that's with

15:51 regards to Yuco Bank. But moving on, the power pack is in focus and I'm specifically talking

15:57 about the PSU power companies. Overall, if you go to see in the budget, the allocations

16:04 have gone up and that's one of the reasons why the pack is buzzing in trade. In fact,

16:09 NHPC again is in focus on the back of a 0.3 percent equity deal that exchanged hands.

16:16 Anushi standing by to get us more in terms of NHPC as well as the other power companies.

16:21 Anushi, over to you. Well, Hiral, as you highlighted, multiple

16:25 large trade in this counter with about 0.3 percent equity changing hands and even if

16:30 you look at the volumes that are buzzing out, at least three times its 30-day average now.

16:35 The stock also did market intraday high of about 15 percent and marked a new fresh life

16:41 high. So, that was at a price of about 115.85 rupees. So, as you correctly mentioned, there

16:47 has been an increase in budgetary allocation for these power PSU companies. If you look

16:51 at the demand grant increase that includes an investment in public power enterprises

16:57 going up about 14 percent at rupees 67,000 crore now, with now NHPC seeing an increase

17:04 in its budgetary allocation up about 30 percent at rupees 11,760 crore compared to 9,006 crore

17:12 of last year. If you look at power grid, that also showed about a 39 percent uptick followed

17:18 by SJBN's 20 percent uptick. So, if you have to pull out the stock performances and check

17:23 the intraday high of each, you will see NHPC and SJBN have done fairly better with about

17:31 15 to 19 percent gains in just these two counters. Even power grid was up about 5 percent. So,

17:37 these are the reasons why the power pack is up today in focus.

17:40 Right. So, that's the power pack which is up in trade from NHPC to SJBN to a power grid

17:48 to a NTPC. All of these counters seeing a smart up move in today's year of trade and

17:53 in fact, when we spoke to a couple of analysts in the morning as well, they are of the opinion

17:57 that all the power companies specifically from the PSU banking space, in spite of the

18:02 kind of run up that they have already seen are still good buying opportunities. Because

18:07 if you pull up a long term chart as well, let us just see a one year chart of all these

18:11 companies, they will give you the entire story of what's brewing. Can we just have one year

18:16 charts there you go. Almost a 2.7 percent up move coming in with regards to where NHPC

18:21 goes. Power grid as well almost 78 to 79 percent is the kind of gains on this one. SJBN is

18:28 another one and a NTPC. There you go. NTPC has also doubled in the last one year and

18:33 a SJBN that's been a multi bagger as well. There you go. 5.2 times is the kind of returns

18:40 that this stock has given. In fact, similar is the trend with the REC, PFC as well as

18:45 a IRDA which are related to the power space. All these three counters have also seen some

18:50 smart moves in the last one year. But moving from the power space, you have Paytm that

18:56 is in focus as well. The moves continue. The stock has hit lower circuit for a third straight

19:02 session. In fact, 20,500 odd crores is nearly what the market cap that has been wiped out

19:09 so far. Let's head across to Harsh to understand more. Harsh, what are you picking up with

19:14 regards to Paytm and what should be highlighted from here on? Well, yes, this story continues

19:20 to unfold in front of us here. 20,500 crores wiped out in three trading sessions for shareholders

19:26 of Paytm. Now, first off, I want to try and highlight the deal which has happened earlier

19:31 today. We had a pre-market deal where 19.5 lakh shares odd were exchanged hands in pre-market.

19:40 This was a large trade where 0.3% of equity changed hands by a seller's currently unknown.

19:47 I also want to flag off one more large trade which happened on Friday with regard to Paytm

19:51 known, of course, but nonetheless important to flag off. 244 crore worth of buying that

19:56 happened on Paytm. Morgan Stanley Asia has bought Pnotts. Now, that typically will mean

20:03 that the buyer is actually someone outside of Morgan Stanley, unknown. But Morgan Stanley

20:09 has enabled that purchase for the buyer because it's Pnotts. And therefore, that's the other

20:16 block deal which happened, but that happened post-market on Friday. So a couple of block

20:21 deals coming in on Paytm. But nonetheless, without respite, the stock is down another

20:26 10% today, which is the lower circuit on the stock. Let me try and break down as to what

20:32 is causing this anxiety. And we had a city note which came today morning after the clarification

20:38 that Paytm issued with regard to the money laundering charges which have come through

20:43 and the possible ED directions which could come through. What Citi continues to suggest

20:49 is they've downgraded Paytm firstly to a sell target price 550 from 900. What they are suggesting

20:55 is that adjusted EBITDA, which Paytm suggests will be impacted by 300 to 500 crore. They've

21:01 revised their and they've cut their adjusted EBITDA forecast by 400 crore for the year

21:06 of FY25 and 600 crore for FY26. For context, adjusted EBITDA for Paytm has come in at a

21:13 456 crore for nine month FY24. So they've pretty much wiped out nine months of adjusted

21:21 EBITDA for the single year FY25 itself and probably the full year adjusted EBITDA equivalent

21:27 of FY24 for FY26. That's what Citi has essentially done. They further lowered their multiple

21:33 as well. And they are suggesting that there's a heightened regulatory overhang on the stock.

21:40 Full clarity they believe will only come through in the next one to two quarters. So maybe

21:44 Q1 FY25 is what they're expecting. And there are a ton of uncertainties which investors

21:50 will continue to have to face. They are also estimating lower monthly transacting users

21:55 which are currently standing at 10 crore at the end of Q3. And they're expecting elevated

22:00 churn in terms of near term customers as well as merchants. So they're expecting some migration

22:06 to start to happen. Extent only to be known in Q1 of FY25. So they're playing wait and

22:12 watch. Target price completely breached. The stock currently trading sub 440, the lowest

22:18 levels ever traded by Paytm.

22:21 Lowest levels ever traded by Paytm. Thanks Harsh for getting us the details and even

22:26 what brokerages are making out of it as well. Because this is going to be an interesting

22:30 play because what happens to their payments wallet and the business, where does it go

22:35 is going to be key taking into consideration the action that the RBI has asked them to

22:41 take so far. But moving on UPL another one which is in focus in today's day of trade

22:45 a 52 week low. And this is mainly on the way the earnings have panned out. And you have

22:51 a couple of volumes and the volumes have been pretty high as well. Mika joins us to tell

22:56 us Momika what are the volumes telling you number one plus the stock performance and

23:00 anything that you've picked up from the management.

23:03 Yes. So the volumes are like a more than six times 30 day average with the sellers being

23:08 more than twice the buyers and the percentage of deliverable quantity to the traded quantity

23:13 was nearly 43 percent as of 1 p.m. The stock is down 10 percent intraday. It also hit a

23:18 52 week low at 482 per share. And the stock has also shown weakness in the past month

23:25 down about 16 percent. The main reason for the fall is the Q3 earnings which were weak

23:31 mainly on the pricing pressure and the destocking and the low demand as well. Now the near term

23:37 challenges that have been highlighted is the high inventory and the declining agro crime

23:42 prices which will later result on for a pressure on their balance sheets which remains a key

23:48 risk. And this could also lead to a credit rating downgrade. Now management does expect

23:55 to continue to see challenging conditions in Q4 as well and expect a low single digit

24:02 decline in volumes in the upcoming quarter on a YOY basis and expect the margins to be

24:08 under pressure as certain key markets such as Brazil and inventory destocking. They expect

24:15 it to continue for the next two three quarters. We also have certain brokerage calls where

24:20 Citi has maintained its buy rating but reduces target price from 700 earlier to 650 rupees.

24:25 Nuvama has a reduced rating and it's decreased the target price from 718 rupees earlier to

24:31 486. And lastly we have Niran Bang which has an accumulate rating and it's decreased the

24:37 target price as well from 622 rupees to 568 rupees. Thank you for getting us the details

24:44 on that one as well. This is an interesting one. You're watching out for GHCL also is

24:48 trading under pressure on the back of the earnings.

24:51 But let's really take a look at a few of the newsmakers. Unicam Laboratories, the stock

24:56 is seeing some smart moves, profits have improved and if you see in terms of the top line as

25:01 well almost a 43% growth. There you go the numbers have just been reported 16% up move

25:05 coming in in terms of where Unicam goes. You have Alambic Pharma has reported numbers as

25:11 well. In spite of the slight weakness that we've seen on the margin front, profits have

25:16 risen on this company and that stock is seeing gains of almost 4, 4.5%. So that's with regards

25:22 to Alambic Pharma. That's another stock which is buzzing in trade. Apart from that, Coal

25:27 India is another one which is one of the top gainers as well in today's session as well

25:32 as you have Tata Motors which is seeing some smart moves. So that's with overall markets.

25:37 But with that we are completely out of time. Do stay tuned to NETV Profit. India Market

25:42 Close coming up next.

25:43 [Music]

25:44 [Music]

25:45 [Music]

25:46 [Music]

25:51 [Music]

25:56 [Music]

26:01 [Music]

26:06 [Music]

26:11 [Music]

26:16 [Music]

26:21 [Music]

Power PSU Stocks In Focus | Large Trades | NDTV Profit

Category

Transcript

Recommended