- #Sensex, #Nifty trade higher
- #JupiterWagons, #Airtel, #AurionproSolutions in focus
Find out where money is moving in the market today with Hiral Dadia and Agam Vakil on 'Hot Money'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #JupiterWagons, #Airtel, #AurionproSolutions in focus
Find out where money is moving in the market today with Hiral Dadia and Agam Vakil on 'Hot Money'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
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01:54 - Market trades in the green nifty about 21,800
01:58 near days high led by HDFC life,
02:00 BPCL and with pro-wild sense X trades above 70,000.
02:05 Broader markets marginally outperformed.
02:08 Most sectors trade in the green led by IT,
02:13 auto and pharma banks underperform.
02:15 And Paytm trades higher after hitting lower circuit
02:22 in the last three sessions.
02:24 Meanwhile, Geo financial services denies reports
02:27 of buying Paytm's wallet business.
02:30 And shares of Bharti et al trade over 2% higher
02:35 on the back of positive December quarter numbers.
02:38 Citi reiterates a buy call with an increased target price
02:42 of 1,270.
02:44 Prime Minister Narendra Modi kicks off poll campaign,
02:50 says BJP will get 370 and NDA 400 seats
02:55 in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.
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03:07 - Hello and welcome to Hot Money.
03:14 I'm Hiral Dhadia.
03:14 Let's quickly take a look what's happening with the markets.
03:17 Clearly we're near the day's highest levels.
03:19 Seen gains of nearly half a percent there.
03:21 21,890 is the level we're tracking in terms of nifty 50.
03:25 In fact, 21,900 is the day's high so far.
03:29 You have bank nifty as well,
03:30 which has now turned into the positive
03:32 pretty much on the borderline,
03:34 but yes, in the positive trying to strive its way upwards.
03:37 HDFC live at the top gainer followed by a BPCL.
03:40 Bipro TCS are also doing pretty well from the IDPAC
03:43 and ONGC, which is seeing some smart gains.
03:46 Some bit of profit booking coming in
03:47 with regards to power grid goes after the kind of surge
03:50 that we saw in yesterday's session.
03:52 And along with the power grid,
03:53 let's just look at the other power names as well.
03:56 NHPC, NTPC, SJVA and all of these
03:59 were up and about in trade yesterday.
04:01 A possibility that all of these
04:03 are also seeing some bit of profit booking as well.
04:06 But Archfinch serve, ITC trading under pressure,
04:08 Britannia will be reporting numbers.
04:10 So that's a stock we're watching out for.
04:12 And you have a Nestle that will be reporting numbers
04:15 tomorrow, so that's another one on everyone's radar as well
04:18 from the FMCG pack.
04:20 But let's look at a Jupiter Wagons,
04:22 an interesting name to watch out for in today's day of trade.
04:26 And overall, if you go to see
04:28 in terms of Jupiter Wagons as well,
04:30 it's mainly on the way the Q3 numbers have panned out.
04:35 Joining us on the show to discuss more
04:38 with regards to the quarter is Vivek Lohia,
04:41 MD at Jupiter Wagons.
04:42 Vivek, firstly, good afternoon and welcome to the show.
04:46 A strong set of numbers that we've seen,
04:49 82% growth in terms of profitability,
04:51 margins have improved as well.
04:54 And the order wins look substantial during the quarter.
04:57 Is this trajectory something that you will be able
04:59 to maintain going ahead?
05:01 Yeah, good afternoon.
05:05 Yeah, as you're aware that the government
05:10 is very focused on the railway sector
05:12 and in the current budget itself,
05:15 the Honorable Finance Minister announced
05:18 three additional freight corridors.
05:21 So the thrust is very clear that they want
05:25 the railway pipe to improve.
05:28 And by 2030, the target is that railway should have
05:33 at least a 50% share of the entire logistics sector,
05:37 which is close to about 3 billion tons
05:41 of transportation annually,
05:44 from currently about 1 to 1.2 billion,
05:46 which railway is doing.
05:47 So definitely there is a lot of tailwind in the sector
05:51 and we are seeing a lot of demand.
05:53 So I don't see any reason why this trend will continue.
05:59 Right, so currently at what level has the company ended
06:04 in terms of the order book at the end of the third quarter?
06:08 And where do you see it moving from here on,
06:11 taking into consideration the orders and contracts
06:15 that you have received from Indian Railway,
06:17 as well as private companies?
06:20 Apart from that, the recent 4,000 box in the wagons
06:24 that has come in as well,
06:25 and the defense ministry order that we're looking at.
06:28 So our order book right now is close
06:32 to about 7,000 odd crore class.
06:35 Going forward, there is already railway has the pipeline
06:40 tenders for about close to 30,000 odd wagons.
06:45 Tenders for about 22,000 wagons are already out.
06:51 So they are under deliberation
06:54 and we expect another 10 to 20,000 wagon orders
06:59 in the very near future.
07:01 So in terms of the order size,
07:06 I don't see a challenge at all.
07:09 Besides this also we are seeing the traction
07:13 on the private sector continue.
07:15 So whatever we are delivering every quarter,
07:17 we are seeing renewed orders coming in
07:19 from the private sector.
07:21 And there is already a lot of private capex
07:26 which is happening in the core sectors,
07:28 mainly steel and cement.
07:29 So that is also leading to substantial demand going forward.
07:34 So for us right now,
07:35 the key is on the execution part of the business,
07:39 and that's where we are focused on.
07:42 And this we are doing in using our identity as well as.
07:49 - Right, so with this, Vivek,
07:51 the kind of expansion that you're looking at as well.
07:54 One of the questions I have for you is,
07:56 with the cost of funds currently,
07:59 do you think that is something hitting the business?
08:03 Is that a concern?
08:04 And if so, do you think it's time to cut interest rates
08:08 taking into consideration that the RBI policy
08:10 is just nearby?
08:11 - Okay, so as a company,
08:15 we are pretty much a net debt free company.
08:19 So our borrowings are not anything substantial
08:22 and going forward also since our cash flows
08:25 are going to remain very strong.
08:27 So we are not looking at a very large scale
08:31 kind of borrowing.
08:32 But again, I think for the growth momentum to continue,
08:37 obviously interest rate cut is,
08:41 I think which is going to be a very welcome step
08:47 from the sector as such and from the industry in general.
08:50 - Right, so everything said and done,
08:52 if you have to look at the next three years,
08:54 what's the key milestone that Jupiter Wagon wants to achieve?
08:57 - I think for us, we have earmarked
09:01 on certain expansion targets
09:05 in terms of our foundry capacity,
09:07 getting into the wheelset manufacturing.
09:10 We have certain targets,
09:14 the new businesses which we have started,
09:17 we have set on the breaking side of the business
09:20 on the passenger rolling stock business.
09:24 Again, the government has announced very grand plans
09:28 towards modernizing the entire
09:31 passenger rolling stock fleet.
09:33 So I think going forward that those are the areas
09:35 where we are going to focus on.
09:37 - Right, so I think that's the trajectory
09:40 one should be watching out for as well.
09:41 Thank you, Vivek, so much for joining us on the show
09:44 and sharing your views.
09:45 So that's with regards to Jupiter Wagons
09:47 in terms of their Q3 numbers.
09:50 Let me quickly welcome in Sharmila Joshi as well
09:53 from sharmilajoshi.com to understand
09:55 what's her view on Jupiter Wagon.
09:57 Sharmila, good afternoon and welcome.
09:59 A quick comment in terms of how are you looking
10:01 at Jupiter Wagons and your topics in the sector?
10:04 - So I think clearly as the management outlined,
10:10 overall I think the way the government is positioned
10:12 on railways as a sector is encouraging.
10:15 I think the only sort of caveat or negative
10:18 that I would sort of voice at this point in time
10:21 is that the stocks have seen a huge run up.
10:24 So a lot of these stocks are a little expensive
10:26 from a valuation perspective.
10:28 And then if the sort of sector preference
10:31 doesn't stay with them,
10:32 then they may not do much in this year.
10:35 But I don't think, you don't need really to worry
10:39 in terms of what kind of order books they have
10:42 or what that delivery process is going to be.
10:45 It's just that the valuations may not be in their favor.
10:49 So I think that's the only caveat.
10:51 Net, net I would stay positive on the sector,
10:53 but it may not be the fancied sector this year.
10:56 - Right, not the fancied sector this year.
10:58 In fact, railway stocks did see profit booking
11:01 post the budget as well.
11:02 Sharmila, stay with us.
11:04 We have some breaking news that we are picking up
11:05 with regards to Paytm.
11:07 And this is the latest update that we have so far.
11:12 Promoter Vijay Shekhar Sharma
11:13 did meet RBI officials yesterday.
11:16 Morita Swaminathan and Tamannaah Inamda
11:19 join us in the studio to tell us more.
11:22 Murali, what have you heard from your sources
11:24 with regards to Paytm?
11:25 Because that's something which is on top of our radar
11:28 today as well.
11:29 - Yeah, lots of things happening.
11:30 Vijay Shekhar Sharma, the promoter of Paytm,
11:35 sought an appointment with RBI officials.
11:38 They gave him the appointment.
11:41 They heard him, but they did not give in anything.
11:44 That's what our sources are telling.
11:46 RBI is going to do what it's going to do,
11:49 and they are continuing to stay on that course.
11:52 That's one part of the story.
11:54 For the benefit of viewers,
11:56 RBI has taken action against Paytm Bank
12:00 and told them that the KYC norms have not been followed
12:04 and they've been given time till the end of this month.
12:07 Now, that has led to a lot of confusion
12:09 about how Paytm users have to shift money
12:13 out of their wallet that they maintain with Paytm Bank,
12:17 which is used by users, that is users of Paytm app.
12:21 Now, over the last two, three days,
12:24 there have been a lot of lobbying going on.
12:25 There were reports that people can buy Paytm,
12:29 sorry, Paytm Bank could be bought by Geo Financial Services
12:34 and that got denied.
12:35 And what I have also heard is that Paytm
12:39 has approached three private banks.
12:42 Now, all the three private banks,
12:45 my source tells me is that they are not entertaining
12:48 any discussion at this stage because they have said that,
12:51 look, we don't want to get into this mess.
12:53 They want to stay clear of this at this stage
12:56 because the RBI investigation or the RBI case is still on.
13:00 Till then, they will not do.
13:02 And of course, the second part of the story,
13:04 which Tamanna has been tracking.
13:07 So this is going to be interesting on this front
13:09 because three private banks that have been approached
13:12 and now the thing is that the banks are still thinking
13:15 whether to look at a Paytm or not right now.
13:18 Tamanna, at your end as well,
13:20 you've been looking at a couple of startups, et cetera,
13:23 who have actually looked at the letter.
13:26 What are you picking up?
13:27 - So I got a sense of what the intent was
13:31 of this clutch of startup founders who wrote to the RBI,
13:34 the prime minister's office and the finance minister,
13:37 asking for a relaxation or a review of the RBI's action.
13:42 And it's quite a strong letter because it says
13:46 this is having a chilling effect on the FinTech space
13:50 and will throttle digital innovation.
13:52 So they've gone as far as equating the Paytm payments bank
13:56 with the entire FinTech ecosystem.
13:58 So I got a better sense of what they're trying to do.
14:01 And what they're saying is that the idea is not to ask
14:04 for special treatment for any FinTech founder.
14:08 That's not what they're asking for.
14:10 What they're saying though is that the RBI
14:12 should have the same approach to Paytm payments bank
14:16 as they did with say a Yes Bank,
14:18 where you've spotted a problem,
14:19 but you very quickly moved to arrest any fallout from it.
14:24 So for example, why not give someone the charge
14:27 almost immediately of Paytm payments bank?
14:29 That would avoid the situation that Murali is talking about
14:31 where Paytm is going around and asking banks to rescue them.
14:36 And no one wants to touch this with a barge pole
14:38 because they don't know what the extent of investigation is,
14:41 if there is any mismanagement in KYCs, et cetera.
14:44 Nobody really knows.
14:45 So no one wants to take on that risk.
14:48 What these people are arguing is that this is something
14:51 that the regulator should have foreseen
14:53 and maybe put someone in charge before pulling the rug
14:56 from under Paytm.
14:57 Having said that, if you see the letter here,
15:01 it's quite aggressive because you're saying that this,
15:05 that Paytm has done such a great job
15:07 bringing digital innovation.
15:08 So that is why you should review what the RBI has done.
15:12 That's not quite fair because if you run afoul of the rules,
15:15 then no matter what you've done in the past,
15:17 you will be held accountable.
15:18 - Absolutely, you will be held accountable
15:20 if there are delinquencies that are found.
15:23 But what's interesting to see over here is
15:26 after these three consecutive sessions of lower circuits,
15:30 today the stock is trading in the positive.
15:33 Muli, does that tell you anything from a stock perspective?
15:36 - Yeah, no, so that's slightly difficult to find out
15:40 because we don't know where the bottom is.
15:42 So today maybe some bias would have emerged,
15:45 therefore the circuit opened.
15:47 But from a, it's very difficult to say that,
15:50 okay, this is a stock where you should go and buy
15:54 at a particular level.
15:56 Now, if you remember, in the past also this has happened,
15:59 the stock hit lower circuit after some action was taken,
16:02 and then some bias emerged,
16:05 after that things gotten worse.
16:08 Now to get in at this stage is a bit of a risk.
16:12 I don't know who, somebody must be doing
16:13 some positional trading here.
16:15 - I think perhaps even this shows support
16:19 from all of these startup founders
16:23 would have sentimentally boosted the stock.
16:25 I just want to add one more input
16:27 of conversations I had with sources in the ministry,
16:30 which is a Meti, on how they are looking
16:33 at this entire situation
16:35 from a startup ecosystem point of view.
16:37 And they were very clear, and they were also talking
16:39 about what's happened with Byju's, et cetera,
16:42 saying that you have to follow the rules.
16:44 Another important point that came in
16:46 is that if you're so convinced that wrong was done to you
16:49 by the regulator, you always have the option
16:51 of approaching courts, and you should do that
16:53 instead of playing quote-unquote the victim card.
16:56 So a lot brewing in the story from every angle.
16:59 - And one more thing I want to add over here
17:01 is I think Bernstein was the one
17:02 who called out a buy on dip, right?
17:05 So I think that is something
17:07 that probably people are looking at.
17:09 - No, so we'll have to see how this whole thing plays out.
17:12 You'll have a clear picture only after the 29th.
17:15 Till then you cannot take a very clear view
17:17 whether it's on the stock or the business of Paytm.
17:21 One thing that has emerged, Tamanna,
17:23 is that it's an unsigned letter.
17:25 I mean, the people who are lobbying against the RBI action,
17:30 they don't want to put a name or face to this,
17:34 because they just don't want to be seen as associated
17:37 and involved in this kind of a situation.
17:40 So if somebody has got a very strong argument
17:43 and they know that there is a strong case,
17:46 why can't they come out?
17:47 They are not.
17:49 I don't know why they are hiding
17:50 and they are leaking this paper to the media.
17:53 And we also want to say that, look, very clearly,
17:55 this is an unsigned letter that has been sent out
17:58 by all the so-called startups who are saying
18:01 that FinTech is big, that'll come in the way
18:05 of digital economy and nothing will come in the way.
18:09 If there is a wrongdoing, it's a wrongdoing.
18:10 - I think it's also an extension of the lobbying
18:13 that you're talking about,
18:14 that Vijay Shepherd Sharma is now doing.
18:16 Of course, he's gone to the RBI,
18:17 he's going to ask the regulator for some solution,
18:20 but this is also sort of surround sound,
18:22 building in a case for the larger ramifications.
18:25 Having said that, the RBI will have to quickly come in
18:28 with clarity, I'm assuming, on the 8th,
18:30 when the governor answers questions from journalists.
18:33 This is going to be one, that how will you ensure
18:35 that there is no fallout, no concern in the ecosystem
18:39 at all with what's happened with PPB?
18:41 - And I'm sure they will have to respond to it as well,
18:43 because I think a little over 60% is still owned by FIs.
18:48 So an answer from the FI side will be sought
18:51 very categorically from the regulator
18:54 and almost around 10 to 11 lakh retail investors
18:58 who've now got trapped in this entire Paytm story,
19:01 taking into consideration the IPO price
19:03 from where they entered to where it is now,
19:06 until this actually gets resolved.
19:08 - Yeah, no, see, it's not just the stock market angle,
19:11 that's only one part of the story.
19:13 You know, investors taking, see, investors have to take risk
19:15 with any investment that they do, okay?
19:18 So here, it's not a question of saving the investors.
19:21 Investors have taken a risk, they've put in money,
19:23 there are investors who paid a IPO over 2000 rupees.
19:26 Now, that's not the issue.
19:27 The issue here is, you know, what will happen
19:31 to the customers?
19:32 Customers, will they have trust?
19:35 I have heard, you know, cab drivers telling me
19:37 that (speaking in foreign language)
19:40 I could not use (speaking in foreign language)
19:42 Those kind of questions have started coming.
19:44 And some people are also saying
19:45 that they're shifting to other apps.
19:47 Now, so I think what the RBI would do,
19:50 and its intention is to clearly let people take out
19:54 whatever balances that they have with the Paytm Bank,
19:57 and that's why they've given time till the end of this month.
20:00 - End of this month.
20:01 So I think this is, the development is gonna be
20:03 absolutely important for all of us to track from all angles.
20:06 - Right.
20:07 - Because it's not only the legal part of it,
20:09 but you know, even if you have to look at
20:12 how much retailers' trust is broken,
20:15 that part of it is also a bigger part of the story,
20:17 because it's not only about Paytm then.
20:20 This extrapolates to a lot of other startups
20:23 and that entire ecosystem,
20:25 taking into consideration what you've spoken about.
20:27 - I would argue not.
20:28 That's the argument they're trying to make, Hiral.
20:30 But frankly, not.
20:32 Because if there is a concern, then you have to face it.
20:37 It's like saying the Yes Bank case
20:39 extrapolates to the entire banking system.
20:41 No, it does not.
20:42 There was a particular problem there
20:43 that the regulator moved and swooped in to fix.
20:47 And likewise, they're doing with Paytm's payment bank.
20:50 Having said that, what they've done does not
20:53 hinder day-to-day operations and use of the Paytm app.
20:57 You can still Paytm karo.
20:58 So that's pretty much there.
21:00 What has hit them is the reputational risk,
21:02 which the markets seem to be reversing now.
21:04 - Absolutely.
21:05 Let's see where it ends up with
21:06 once you get some bit of further clarification coming in.
21:10 But 3.5 to 4% is the up move
21:12 that we're seeing in today's session.
21:13 Thank you, Murali.
21:14 Thank you, Tamannaah, for joining us on the show
21:15 and getting us this detailed analysis of what's gone wrong,
21:19 what happened when Vijay Shekhar Sharma
21:21 actually met the regulator
21:23 and post that what others are thinking about it as well.
21:26 But let's quickly slip into a short break.
21:28 We'll get you lots more on the other side.
21:30 Please stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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24:33 - Welcome back.
24:41 We have Sharmila Joshi back with us.
24:42 Sharmila, you heard my colleagues discuss about Paytm
24:47 and what's brewing and what's the latest information
24:50 that we're picking up there.
24:51 Paytm has approached three private banks.
24:53 However, they're not really keen
24:55 at any transaction at this stage.
24:57 How would you, what would you advise a Paytm investor?
25:01 Firstly, someone who's invested
25:02 and secondly, is this time to really enter the stock?
25:06 - So that's a difficult question to ask
25:08 because as you all were clearly outlining,
25:10 there are just too many uncertainties at this point in time
25:13 and most of them are rather, I would say, unfortunate
25:15 because at the end of the day,
25:17 this can also be viewed as a new economy
25:20 versus old economy sort of a debate
25:22 because if you remember about a year and a half back,
25:25 all these companies which had IPOs at that point in time,
25:29 whether it was a Paytm, whether it was a Nika, Zomato,
25:32 I mean, you name it and they were all viewed
25:35 as new age businesses
25:36 which their growth was going to be exponential going away.
25:39 And most of them have hit roadblocks for various reasons.
25:43 This is of course a regulatory issue,
25:44 but I do think that some of this could have been avoided
25:47 and I think it would be greatly appreciated
25:49 if you get clarity on the situation largely
25:53 because of the number of users that are there with Paytm
25:58 and in a way they have become synonymous with FinTech.
26:02 So I would just basically advise people to,
26:05 investors to wait a bit.
26:07 Yes, I think traders are sort of taking positional calls
26:12 at this point in time,
26:14 but I think if you give it a couple of days
26:15 and if some sort of clarity emerges on this,
26:18 then that could be a time to really take a position
26:21 in the stock because then the sort of the door opens
26:25 for private banks to come in.
26:26 Then I think that could be a possible way out
26:29 and a road ahead for Paytm.
26:30 So we need to wait and see how the regulators respond
26:35 to this meeting and what clarity emerges
26:39 in the next couple of days.
26:40 That's going to be interesting to watch out for as well.
26:42 Thank you, Sharmila, so much for joining us on the show,
26:44 but we're completely running out of time.
26:47 And before we call it a wrap on the show,
26:48 we also caught up with the management
26:50 of Orion Pro Solutions.
26:53 Now, clearly the company's revenues have gone up 9%
26:56 while margins have expanded as well.
26:58 Let's hear a slice of that conversation.
27:00 We've been trying to build out what we've said
27:05 is a global products and platforms business.
27:09 Execution remains on track as you saw in the quarter
27:13 revenue grew 37% and profit after tax grew 45%
27:18 so far our score also that's broadly slightly ahead
27:21 of the guidance of 30 to 35% that we have out there.
27:25 Both of the major segments for us
27:29 are growing pretty solidly.
27:31 So the banking software business,
27:33 both the lending software that we do
27:34 as well as transaction banking,
27:36 doing very, very well in the quarter
27:38 and on the technology innovation group that we have
27:42 the transit payments business again,
27:45 doing pretty solidly in the quarter.
27:46 So overall, I think good all around performance
27:51 from each of the businesses.
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30:38 - Hello and welcome to the Portfolio Manager.
30:48 We have with us a very special guest,
30:50 Prabhakar Khodwa, co-founder of Samwiti Capital joining us.
30:54 Samwiti Capital has been one of the most
30:57 outstanding performers in the PMS space,
31:00 not just last year, but since inception.
31:02 Prabhakar, of course, joins us to talk to us
31:04 about the investment philosophy,
31:06 the assets that they manage,
31:08 and of course, sectors and stocks that they like
31:10 and why they like them.
31:11 Prabhakar, good afternoon.
31:12 Thanks a ton for joining us today.
31:14 You clearly are a hidden gem.
31:16 I mean, Samwiti Capital is a hidden gem.
31:18 Performance of the fund has been exponential
31:21 to say the least in the last one year, last six months,
31:24 and even since inception, it's a clear beat
31:26 with a 44% return versus the index of 19%.
31:30 Talk to me, Prabhakar, about your investment philosophy
31:34 to begin with.
31:35 - Thank you so much for inviting me.
31:39 The investment philosophy is slightly different
31:42 from typically what the street does, right?
31:45 So typically what happens is people generally,
31:48 fund managers try to take a three to five year view
31:51 of a particular stock or a particular sector, right?
31:55 So what we do is slightly different.
31:59 So we essentially, typically the core thesis
32:05 for buying a stock is driven by valuations
32:09 or if a stock is undervalued or overvalued and so on.
32:14 But what we do is we look at identifying
32:19 some sort of asymmetry starting to appear
32:24 in the stock or the sector, right?
32:26 So whenever we see that something that was neglected
32:29 for a long time and suddenly a new catalyst
32:32 has emerged in the picture, which we believe
32:35 can change the trajectory of the company,
32:37 we try to identify such stocks and build a basket
32:41 of such bets.
32:44 And instead of taking a three to five year view,
32:47 typically our holding periods are relatively lesser.
32:50 So we look at a transition period of six to eight quarters,
32:55 which is anywhere between one and a half
32:57 to two and a half years, because based on our research,
33:00 we've realized that most of the re-rating of a stock
33:03 typically happens over a six to eight quarter period.
33:07 And that is what our average holding period is.
33:10 But essentially the key difference in philosophy is,
33:13 instead of taking a valuation based approach
33:17 or trying to find undervalued stock,
33:19 what we look for is a neglected stock where a new catalyst
33:24 has entered, which can materially change
33:27 the earnings trajectory of the company.
33:29 And that is what we have been doing.
33:31 And so far we've been quite successful.
33:33 That sounds very interesting.
33:34 I'm sure at this stage when the markets are anyway
33:37 looking so stretched and looking for themes,
33:40 viewers would love to know how you actually go about
33:42 identifying these stocks or sectors.