-What's ahead for #Nifty & #NiftyBank
-Which F&O strategies to adopt to beat volatility
Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
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-Which F&O strategies to adopt to beat volatility
Take stock of the derivative markets with Agam Vakil and Samina Nalwala on 'The F&O Show'. #NDTVProfitLive
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news:https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
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TVTranscript
00:00 Gain hits upper circuit for the second straight day. The stock trades with a gain of 10%.
00:05 And shares of Britannia follow 1% as regional players give tough competition.
00:12 Eat into its business. Profits dip 40%.
00:18 Chanda Coach's arrest by CBI illegal rules the Bombay High Court, upholds earlier interim bail.
00:37 And those are the top headlines that we are tracking at 10.30 am. This is Samina
00:44 Hernalwala and you are watching the FNO show, where we take you through all the derivative action.
00:48 Well, a quick check of how the street is doing. After a beautiful rally yesterday,
00:52 the markets are trading flat around 22,000 on the index. The breadth of the market is not too
00:57 bad with the bias on the upside. But interestingly, it's Bank Nifty that's actually performing in
01:02 today's day of trade, while IT stocks see profit taking after a nearly 3% rally in trade yesterday.
01:08 Well, your top gainer on the exchanges today is SBI with a gain of 3%. HDFC Life Insurance also
01:14 doing quite well up 3.5%. Tata Steel, Adani Enterprise, Bajaj Twins, Reliance Industries,
01:22 GSW Steel are some of the other gainers. On the losing side, Infi takes a break down about a
01:28 percent and a half. Britannia after a gap up of nearly 2.5% sees the selling pressure down over
01:34 a percent. ICICI Bank, Wipro, Power Grid are some of the other losers. Across the broader markets,
01:39 that's where all the action seems to be focused on with regard to earnings. You've got stocks like
01:43 EIH that trade with a gain of 20%. We will talk about that in a minute, but just first over to
01:48 Agam for all the FNO action. Agam, Nifty is trading flat, but I don't think anyone is complaining
01:53 after a sharp rally yesterday, in fact, a consolidated broad based run up yesterday.
01:58 The Nifty is taking a break at 22,000 this morning. Yes, Amina, and until yesterday,
02:05 we also saw a considerable amount of writing around the calls when it comes to the 22,000 mark
02:11 and a lot of those calls have been unwound. And it also means that 22,000 now becomes a little
02:17 bit of a pivot and perhaps a level around which we can expect the Nifty to consolidate.
02:22 Well, we are looking at a 0.3% up move there and about a 1.5% increase in open interest as far as
02:28 the Nifty futures go and the Bank Nifty, of course, which will be in focus perhaps because of
02:33 the weekly options expiry. The futures, of course, are advancing by around 0.4%. And in terms of your
02:41 open interest, we're seeing further unwinding coming through. Let's talk about how things are
02:45 panning out as far as the options market goes. And as I was suggesting, 22,000 is where we're
02:50 seeing the most amount of increase in as far as calls as well as puts a concern as far as the Nifty
02:56 goes. And moving on, this is, of course, your change in open interest. Now, a lot of that
03:02 traction will have moved higher to around 22,000 marks. So you do see a most amount of activity in
03:06 that 22,000 call strike. Moving on, the Bank Nifty, of course, remains in focus. As I was mentioning,
03:13 46,000 at the moment continues to be a place where we're going to see a lot of activity. And 46,000
03:19 will also be that cornerstone around which you see the Bank Nifty move around. But as far as
03:27 stocks go, let's pull that list up as well. And we are seeing shorts in Naveen Florian, Berger Paynes
03:33 and IEX, IOC and Max Financial, on the other hand, looking at Long's building in. And in terms of
03:39 stocks, which are seeing unwinding in open interest, we're seeing a bar shot covering for
03:43 Chamel Fertilizers, HDFC Life and Lupin. Of course, the life insurance companies are in focus today
03:48 as they are advancing. Let's keep an eye on that. And of course, the Bank Nifty today, Samina.
03:54 Indeed, it's doing a little bit of a catch up this morning with regard to Bank Nifty. In terms
03:58 of stocks, well, Agam highlighted the ones that are seeing F&O activity. There are others as well
04:03 that are seeing interest in trade. You've got EIH that's up 18% on earnings. You've got
04:08 197 Communication that's up 10% and that's Paytm we're talking about. WeMart on earnings is doing
04:14 well. JB Chemicals is having a pleasant day. Angel One on back of customer additions of 10% in the
04:19 month of Jan is seeing a substantial rally. On the sell side, Naveen Florian like Agam maintained,
04:26 EID Perry, Redington are seeing some pressure in today's session. Endurance Tech as well,
04:31 disappointing numbers down 2% and Silma also seeing a cut of 12.5% on back of earnings. But
04:38 it is Paytm that the market still seeming to be getting excited about. The stock is up 10%
04:43 hitting upper circuit. Harsh is joining us with the fine print. Harsh, over to you. What's going on?
04:48 Well, yes, absolutely, Samina. Of course, good recovery. It's a bit of a cheer with regard to
04:54 where Paytm investors are seeing the kind of recovery on Paytm. Market cap has come back
04:59 above the 30,000 crore mark. It's at 31,000 crore. Just to add some more perspective,
05:06 you have cash balances in Paytm as well as the asset base of Paytm. And I've tried to pull out
05:12 as of September of 2023, where the cash balance stood around four and a half thousand crore
05:17 is where that cash balance could mind you against a market cap of 31,000 odd crores, almost 15%
05:24 odd of that market cap is pure cash balances. Also, it has certain investments as well as
05:30 receivables of around three, three and a half thousand crore. So something around seven and a
05:34 half to eight thousand crore of all of these receivables plus cash balances for a market cap
05:42 of roughly 31,000 crores. So that's possibly one positive that one needs to look out for.
05:48 The other piece, of course, is all the commentary that's come through. They seem confident that
05:53 they're going to migrate accounts to another bank. Of course, how, when, where still awaited
05:58 tons of uncertainty. But with that, I also want to go across and understand breakdown how analysts
06:05 are rating the stock. We have most analysts or rather 40% of the analysts have a buy rating on
06:11 the counter. The target price average for the next 12 months is 740 rupees or 50% upside even from
06:19 here as per analysts, of course. And we have 27 holds, 33%, which have a sell rating now within
06:26 the sell rating as well. Very interesting trend playing out. Only one analyst has a sell at 450
06:33 outside of that, all of which have ascribed a target price of 500 plus on the share. So that's
06:40 how we can round it up. But nonetheless, the commentary that seems to be coming from the
06:44 analyst community is there's plenty of uncertainty even now. Right. That's the Paytm story.
06:50 And now, brokerages think about the counter, the stock trading at 490. Off the day's high
06:55 points, the circuit has opened up, but still trading with a gain of nearly 9%. We're now joined
07:00 by Ashish Kyal, founder and CEO of Wave Strategy Advisors, and also Jai Patel, Research Head,
07:06 Investment Securities. Hi, gentlemen. Thanks for joining us. Jai, I'll start with you first.
07:13 Yesterday was quite a beautiful up move. It was a broad-based rally. The markets closed pretty
07:19 much at the day's point, barring banks. I think every other sector participated in trade.
07:25 This morning, we've opened at highs, but we're off that point, around 22,000 on the Nifty.
07:31 What is the trade? Would you go long for the Feb series?
07:33 So good morning, Samina. I would look at 22,040 levels to sustain for like one and a half hours.
07:42 After that, we can see a good, a long buildup coming in. Particularly, I am bullish about
07:48 the market Nifty, but I will suggest 21,150 levels to be taken out if 22,040 levels sustain.
07:57 So currently, if we see the market, PSU banks are holding out, giving good support. IT sector is
08:03 giving good support. Particularly, I would say pharma sector is a good defensive sector, but at
08:08 this point of time, since bank Nifty, and particularly one segment of bank Nifty, private
08:13 banks are less supportive. I would see today's closing particularly is very important for Nifty.
08:19 The opening was 22,000, about 22,000. That was a good point, but we didn't sustain that level.
08:25 At 22,000, one-crore Paul Reuters position are already accumulated at 22,000 levels. So 22,000
08:32 would be a crucial point. Once we sustain about that level, we can see new all-time highs coming
08:36 in in Nifty index, and particularly bank Nifty. I would currently avoid bank Nifty for buying or
08:42 for even shorting. So since it's in a range-bound trade, I would wait for bank Nifty to rebound
08:48 above 46,400 zones and then I will go long on bank Nifty. But for Nifty, I would go long after it
08:55 crosses above 22,040 levels into intraday's perspective. Well, you can see bank Nifty for
09:01 now weakening further as we speak. Over the last five minutes, it has dipped quite a bit.
09:06 But Ashish, good morning to you as well. How are you addressing the benchmarks at the moment?
09:12 Good morning to you and all the viewers. See, if you look at overall trend of Nifty and bank Nifty,
09:17 there has been some kind of a diversion that we can clearly see. Bank Nifty has been an underperformer
09:23 for quite some time, and Nifty has managed to move upside. But having said that, Nifty is also
09:29 failing to sustain about that 22,000 mark. Every time it goes towards the near to the lifetime
09:33 highs, we can see some kind of a selling kicking in. So I think it's going to be a range-bound
09:40 market. On the upside, today's high around 22,050 is going to be an important hurdle.
09:45 And on the downside, the index has a very important support, which is going to be around 21,850.
09:50 So that is the broad range within which the market is stuck. And breakout of this range is required
09:54 for movement in that specific direction. As far as bank Nifty is concerned, I think bank Nifty has a
10:00 very important hurdle, which is going to be around 46,200. So if bank Nifty does not move beyond
10:06 46,200, I think we can start seeing again some kind of a selling pressure, and the index can move
10:11 lower towards the level of 45,500. So if I have to short, I would be looking for bank Nifty as a
10:16 shorting opportunity. And if I have to play a range, maybe if you look at the options data also
10:21 for Nifty, you can see equal amount of buildup on either side of 22,000 of call and puts. That shows
10:27 a short straddle is possibly in play. And there is no strong conviction by big players either.
10:32 So I would be playing a range bond trade on Nifty and maybe a shorting trade on bank Nifty.
10:38 What would you do, Jai, with IT today after a nearly 3% rally yesterday? Some of the stocks
10:45 are seeing profit taking now. Is this a good opportune moment if one is considering going
10:50 long on IT? And if yes, would it be the index or specific stocks?
10:54 So Samina, if we look at Nifty IT's daily chart, particularly we see a rounding bottom pattern
11:01 finishing up yesterday's trade. And particularly today, we can see that it's taking support at
11:06 around that level 37,900 around level. So I would suggest we can see a good leg of up move again
11:13 in IT sector, particularly if we see tomorrow's, yesterday's particularly session, DCS and all
11:19 the stocks which have seen a good up move rally, particularly after one or two years. So we can
11:26 definitely see a profit coming from particularly retail investors and as well as from the DIA side.
11:31 So I would go long on Nifty IT, wait for a little dip coming in this index, particularly 37,600
11:39 zones. I would be a buyer at that level. And Nifty IT could be something which you can look out for
11:44 in coming quarters. So Nifty IT, as well as if we focus on DCS as well as on some mid-cap IT
11:50 companies like Koforge, I would see a good buying opportunity coming in these stocks. And DCS would
11:55 be a good long-term buying opportunity currently at this level. I would see DCS hit 4,600 zones,
12:03 we can see a good bonus or something coming up in this stock. So I would focus if there is something
12:09 called protection coming in after stock process about that level. So let's see what happens.
12:14 But IT, I am very bullish on. Bullish on IT, bearish on buying Nifty. We'll take a quick
12:20 break. We'll come back, continue talking to our guests and take you through all the action in the
12:24 markets this morning.
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15:40 Welcome back. This is the FNO Show and we now shift focus to all the trading ideas that our experts have for us.
15:46 Ashish, I come to you. What are you recommending today?
15:50 The first stock on the buy side is going to be Kenfin Homes. We can clearly see a very strong
15:54 bullish candle formation here. The volumes are picking up and the stock is breaking out after
15:59 forming the double top earlier. So I think there is a positive breakout that we can see on the stock
16:04 here. And one can create long positions for the target of 910 and maintain a stop loss of 815 on
16:10 the downside. And the next stock pick is going to be AB Capital. After a good enough consolidation,
16:18 we are seeing a strong bounce back on the stock. It's possibly starting the third wave on the upside,
16:23 which can be strong and fast. And long positions can be created in AB Capital
16:27 for the target of 200, maintaining a stop loss of 180 levels.
16:31 Jai, what about you? What are your top trades this morning?
16:35 So coincidentally, I have also a long position on Kenfin Homes, particularly at current levels.
16:41 If we see the stock has given a strong breakout above 840 zones, and particularly the rounding
16:47 bottom pattern has been seen as finishing up. And we can see a good up move, particularly from
16:52 this level, above 896 would be a target and 828 would be a stop loss. I can see RSI is seeing a
17:01 strong positive divergence and we can see MSCD displaying a good momentum, particularly on
17:06 current chart. And after the budget, we can see a good buying coming in, particularly home financing
17:11 companies, LIC Housing Finance or Kenfin Homes. So Kenfin Homes would be a buy at current levels.
17:16 The target would be 896 and stop loss would be 828. The second stock would be Adani Enterprise.
17:22 Adani Enterprise today displayed a strong buying momentum and particularly at current levels,
17:26 we can see a breakout on a daily chart at this level, and particularly on a weekly chart also,
17:31 we can see strong accumulation zone and stock is climbing above this accumulation zone. So 3242
17:37 would be a buying price and I can see the stock climbing towards 3460 levels. The stop loss,
17:44 however, we can keep at 3194 zones. The volume we can see today is building up strongly and
17:50 particularly we can see long build up in Adani Enterprise. So I would be a buyer at Adani
17:55 Enterprise and Kenfin. Okay. Well, let's talk about a handful of companies that we want to talk
18:01 about. Life insurance companies are buzzing in trade today. In fact, one of them is the top gainer
18:08 on the Nifty, that's HDFC Life. But behind it, we have some gains coming in as far as SBI Life
18:14 is concerned as well. Of course, LIC is not doing as well in today's day of trade, but SBI Life and
18:19 HDFC Life are advancing in trade. Ashish, can you come in on HDFC Life? We haven't seen too much
18:26 traction here in general. Do you think there is any trade at all in this particular counter at
18:32 the moment? Any levels that you're watching out for, would you absolutely avoid? See, if you look
18:37 at HDFC Life and SBI Life, I think SBI Life is trading near the 52X high, but HDFC Life has shown
18:44 a decent amount of down move and is now showing kind of a retracement. So I would be bullish here
18:49 because the stock might have completed the correction on the downside. And if it manages
18:54 to sustain above the level of 615, I think the stock is headed towards the next price action
18:59 area of 640. So the overall trend for HDFC Life might reverse. We can expect a move towards 640,
19:05 provided it crosses 615. And on the downside, the support for the stock is going to be near
19:09 today's low, which is 596. So as long as stock manages to sustain that 596 levels,
19:15 I think there is a possibility of playing for that pullback towards 640.
19:20 Right. That is a few of the picks coming in from our guest. In the meantime, there are a few others
19:28 that the market is drawing attention from. A whole bunch of auto counters are having a pretty good
19:34 day. You also got real estate that is in a sweet spot. Jai, if I had to ask you anything
19:40 in the real estate or auto pack that has caught your attention today?
19:44 So on a reality space, I would say DLF is something is very interesting, particularly
19:51 after the stock has crossed its multi-year highs from 2014. The stock has bounced back and it is
19:57 currently in doubling soon. And I would say the stock can climb above four figures in a very short
20:03 period of time because we can see strong spurs coming in in real estate space and particularly
20:08 the real estate stocks like Shoba. Even if we talk about Shoba and DLF, I would be a buyer at
20:14 current level also for a bit to short term. And Shoba displayed a strong rounding bottom,
20:20 finishing with heavy volumes on a chart in yesterday's session. And particularly at current
20:24 levels, I would say on Shoba, we can see 1720 levels coming in a very short period of time.
20:31 So Shoba and DLF would be on real estate space and on auto space, I would be a buyer for
20:36 Tata Motors. Tata Motors displayed a strong result particularly and after the result,
20:43 we can see the stock has climbed upwards towards 900 zones. And in a short period of time,
20:48 we can see strong demand coming in in the stock and we can see the EV play, particularly after
20:54 the fame three rules kicking in after the budget, we can see EV demand to be increased and we can
21:01 expect the stock to climb upwards towards 1060 levels for Tata Motors as well as Maruti is also
21:06 currently trading near its all-time highs. So Maruti would be something very interesting,
21:10 particularly passenger vehicles, its all-time high sales and we can expect the stock to cross above
21:16 11,000 and once it crosses above that level, we can see the stock climbing upwards towards
21:20 13,000 zones. So I would be a buyer for the large cap space on Tata Motors and Maruti.
21:26 Right, right, right. Jai, thanks so much for that. In fact, we're out of time. So I'm going
21:30 to thank both our experts, Jai as well as Ashish for joining us and taking us through
21:34 their views on the markets and giving us trading ideas. But we shift focus to JK Daya where we
21:40 spoke to the management on the back of their December quarter earnings. This is what they
21:44 had to say. Listen in. We have been working continuously on our efforts on premiumization,
21:51 wherein we focus to sell more of the premium products, the SKUs in which we are able to
21:58 deliver better value to our customers, whether it is in the TBR segment or also in the passenger
22:05 car radial segment. That is one area that we have been able to make good progress.
22:10 The other is that the overall product mix has become favorable for us. When I say that,
22:16 what I mean is that in our Bhanmor tyre plant, we had taken our capacity expansion program
22:22 to make more of the passenger car radial tyres. That expansion program has started giving results.
22:29 Almost 80% of the program is commissioned and we have started getting the increased output
22:35 from that plant. And therefore, we are able to improve our product mix towards more of the
22:42 PCR segment, which is definitely a more profitable segment for us. Within that also,
22:49 we are trying to sell more of the premium, the high rim size SKUs, which are the 16 inch and
22:55 above. There again, we have been able to make some decent progress. As I speak, maybe in quarter four,
23:03 we will see more of it happening in the Bhanmor plant and even in our Chennai plant, which are
23:09 more focused towards producing the passenger line radials. Having said that, even in our TBR segment,
23:16 we have been working on certain power SKUs, which are the fuel saver, which definitely give much
23:23 better value to our customers. And thereby, it also helps us command a premium on those SKUs in
23:30 the marketplace. We are working on extra mileage. One thing which we have seen is that many of our
23:36 customers are looking for tires which are more suited for the applications that they are in,
23:43 rather than just taking some generic tires. Even when it comes to the buses, a lot of tubeless
23:50 radials are being seen. The demand for that is going up. On EV buses, we have been able to
23:56 provide state of the art products. The product that we have recently introduced, the JUXE,
24:04 is specifically designed, engineered, developed, and validated for application on the EV buses.
24:12 These buses require tires which are low on rolling resistance, low on noise, and at the same time,
24:21 are able to provide all the performance parameters, including durability. As we know that the EV
24:27 buses have a high starting torque. So, these also are suited for such applications. So, overall,
24:33 our efforts are in the direction of making products which are differentiated in performance
24:40 and deliver better value. And thereby, we are able to command a certain premium. This actually
24:46 helps us, keeps us in good stead towards meeting some of the pressures which come either from the
24:54 cost side or even from the market side when it comes to the pricing of the regular SKUs.
25:02 And as we wrap this show, let's listen in to SBI's Dinesh Khara as to what he has to say
25:09 about expectations from the upcoming monetary policy. Listen.
25:12 I think perhaps I'm not expecting any kind of a change in stance or the direction as of now. But
25:22 maybe they will, and we see would have even much more data, which I'm not privy to. So,
25:29 I'll not be in a position to really comment much on that. But my overall sense is that perhaps it
25:34 is likely to be the tone and also the direction should be what it was in the last policy.
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29:48 Hello and welcome. You're watching NDTV Profit and you're tuned into the Small and Mid-Cap show.
29:52 I am Heeral Dhadia and with me is Harsh Saita. Good morning, Harsh. Clearly, if you see from a market's perspective,
29:58 we're trying to again inch towards that 21,000, sorry, 22,000 mark pretty closely, two-tenths of a percent higher.
30:06 And if you see the advance-to-client ratio, pretty much 50-50, no major upticks coming in there.
30:12 You have the life insurance companies, which are seeing some smart moves. So, HDFC Life and SBI Life, which are up in trade.
30:18 SBI is up in trade. Financials, we're talking about as well, and that's mainly ahead of the RBI policy tomorrow.
30:26 Britannia, on the back of earnings, is up 1.9%. They've taken around 2-3% price cuts.
30:32 And rural demand seems to be a concern so far. Hindalco Coal India, two other names which are seeing smart moves.
30:39 Infosys trading under pressure. Power Group is up in trade.