- #SEBI cracks down on unlawful gains made by guest experts on #ZeeBusiness
- What led to #LIC's 49% jump in profit in their Q3 earnings?
All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Krishnamurthy V Subramanian,ED, IMF & Former Chief Economic Advisor to Govt of India
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- What led to #LIC's 49% jump in profit in their Q3 earnings?
All this and more with Alex Mathew on 'All You Need To Know'. #NDTVProfitLive
Guest List:
Krishnamurthy V Subramanian,ED, IMF & Former Chief Economic Advisor to Govt of India
______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
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TVTranscript
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01:38 Good morning and thanks so much for joining in.
01:42 Happy Friday to you.
01:43 This is NDTV Profit.
01:44 My name is Alex Matthew, and you're watching All You Need to Know.
01:47 Like the name suggests,
01:48 we get you everything that you need to know before the start of trade.
01:51 Let's start with the top headlines.
01:53 The RBI sticks to its guns and says PTM failed to take corrective measures and
01:59 an independent member of PTM Bank resigns.
02:04 Another day, another record close for the S&P 500.
02:08 It touches the 5,000 mark yesterday.
02:10 Japan's Nikkei 225 also hits a fresh 34-year high.
02:14 The wait for interest rate cuts gets longer, with the Reserve Bank of India
02:20 keeping a tight vigil on inflation and liquidity.
02:23 Separately, Dinesh Khara of SBI says that he expects rate cuts
02:27 could take place in the second or third quarter of FY25.
02:34 The economy at the center stage of the run-up to the 2024 battle.
02:39 The Modi government has tabled a white paper and slams the UPA for its failures.
02:44 SEBI cracks down on Z Business guest experts over unlawful gains.
02:52 Let's talk about US equities then.
02:56 They were volatile in trade on Thursday, with the S&P 500 briefly hitting the 5,000 mark.
03:03 It ended with narrow gains.
03:05 However, the S&P 500 posted another record close.
03:10 Meanwhile, US Treasuries have struggled to gain traction,
03:14 despite a strong $25 billion sale of long-term bonds.
03:19 The yield on the 10-year Treasury was at around 4.15% last I checked.
03:25 Now, it's going to be narrow trade, of course, in the Asia-Pacific region,
03:28 with China markets shut for the Lunar New Year holiday till the end of next week.
03:35 Two of the three early risers in the Asia-Pacific were trading last I checked,
03:39 and they were both positive.
03:41 In fact, let's also talk about certain other aspects that you need to bear in mind.
03:45 And there is a significant headline, in fact, that you should pay attention to.
03:51 Of course, the World Trade Organization is going to be hearing from New Delhi
03:58 about the potential for rolling back of a moratorium
04:02 on certain software downloads that take place here in India.
04:07 We'll tell you about that in just a bit.
04:09 But for now, let's turn to the Indian equity markets and talk about the F&O space.
04:13 We've got Agam joining in to tell you about the latest skews there.
04:17 Agam, morning, cuts for the benchmark index to the extent of 1% yesterday.
04:22 What do we look at at the end of the week?
04:24 Right.
04:25 Well, Alex, what was really interesting was that after the RBI policy was over yesterday,
04:30 we saw the markets move into consolidation move.
04:32 Sure, we did see the markets come off to a certain extent.
04:35 But after that, it was relatively quiet.
04:37 That is perhaps what we are expecting today as well.
04:40 And while we did see a cut of around 1% in the underlying as far as the Nifty is concerned,
04:45 we have had about a less than 1.5% increase in open interest as far as futures go.
04:51 The Bank Nifty futures, again, the picture is not very different,
04:55 though sure, we did see about a 2% cut there.
04:58 But a lot of that was on account of weakness in the private sector banks.
05:02 And of course, the 4% added in open interest towards fresh shorts.
05:05 As far as the Nifty open interest is concerned,
05:09 yesterday, considering we saw the markets come off to quite an extent,
05:13 that was taken as a day where a lot of traders took their profits off their puts.
05:19 And of course, we saw a lot of unwinding coming through.
05:23 And in terms of your overall range based on Max OI,
05:26 as we've been talking about over the past few days,
05:30 your Max OI call has been shifting between 22,000 and 22,300.
05:35 And of course, for now, it does seem like 22,000 is a tough one to take out in the near term.
05:41 On the lower end, the range once again shifts back from 21,700 to 21,500.
05:47 And this is of course based on Max OI inputs.
05:49 Let's move on and talk about stocks then and see how things are panning out.
05:53 So, PI Industries, Power Grid and Alchem Laboratories
05:56 seeing longs, shorts for Chermel Fertilizers and Britannia.
05:59 And in terms of stocks, which is seeing unwinding,
06:02 we did see about a short covering for Lupin, Trent and Cummins.
06:06 Trent, of course, is a little bit of a surprise here,
06:08 but remember that there were perhaps further shorts earlier in the system
06:12 which were being unwound or this could also mean that there's about a profit taking
06:17 even as we see the stock shoot up.
06:19 That said, we're going to continue to keep an eye on earnings as we move into trade today, Alex.
06:24 But as far as the benchmarks go, perhaps expecting a little more consolidation.
06:27 Absolutely. Thanks so much, Agam, for bringing us those details.
06:30 Now, we had a conversation with Dinesh Khara of State Bank of India last evening
06:36 and we spoke to him about the monetary policy decision
06:38 and also the possibility of a long wait before interest rate cuts come through.
06:43 And he told us what he expects with regard to monetary policy direction
06:48 as well as weighing in on the latest regulatory action
06:54 that the Reserve Bank of India has taken against Paytm.
06:58 And of course, we've not spoken specifically about Paytm.
07:00 He was referring to the system at large.
07:02 Listen in to what he had to say.
07:05 Well, I think MPC is very clearly focused in terms of ensuring
07:10 that the inflation should come within 4%.
07:14 But the kind of trajectory which you are seeing,
07:16 there is a possibility that we should actually get to see the rate cut
07:22 maybe in the second quarter of the next financial year or the third quarter.
07:26 This is what my broad expectation is and much of it will depend upon
07:30 how the economy evolves over the period of time.
07:34 See, financial sector across the globe is tightly regulated.
07:38 If at all FinTechs wants to get into financial sector space,
07:43 so then they have to be regulated the way the other financial sector players are regulated.
07:48 This is what my sense is and because there are always transmission challenges,
07:54 so that's why all the players in the financial sector and the ecosystem
07:58 should be equally regulated, should be equally tightly regulated.
08:03 Sir, are you in touch with Paytm for transfer of accounts and others?
08:08 I normally don't comment on any specific issues in such matters.
08:14 My only question was because there is a systemic thing which has been talked about
08:18 that the transfer is going to happen.
08:20 So, is it going to be smooth and are you in touch with them?
08:22 That's the reason I asked you.
08:23 I have already made a mention that we are willing to offer our services
08:28 to the merchants who are dealing with Paytm.
08:31 We will be more than happy to offer them the payment system services
08:35 and that remains service-wise.
08:38 All right, and if you want to catch that whole interview,
08:40 it's available on the website NDTVprofit.com
08:43 or in fact on any one of our social media platforms.
08:46 Let's turn to earnings then and Life Insurance Corporation of India
08:49 has reported a stellar 49% jump in net profit to over 9,400 crore rupees.
08:56 You've been wondering why the stock has been on a tear.
08:59 Perhaps this is part of that reason.
09:01 Harsh is joining you with some of the fine print.
09:03 Harsh, what can you tell us about what is very clearly a banger set of numbers?
09:08 Absolutely, Alex.
09:10 You know, this has come completely as a beat to everyone's expectations.
09:15 You know, in terms of the net premium income,
09:17 the number has gone up by 5% year over year.
09:20 Mind you, LIC largely ceding market share most times with regard to this number
09:25 but this time around actually catching up with regard to market share,
09:29 which is a huge positive.
09:31 Profit after tax, as you did mention, up 49%
09:34 but the key number here is the value of new business.
09:37 It's up 46% year over year.
09:39 From that 1,800 crore number, it's coming at 2634 crore
09:43 and that clearly is also seen with regard to VNB margins.
09:47 It's gone up from 14.5% to 20% for the quarter Q3,
09:53 standalone quarter Q3 of FY24.
09:57 Even on the nine-month basis, it's coming at around 16.5% plus,
10:02 which is extremely solid, right, Alex?
10:04 This is a company where the margins were sub 10%
10:08 at the time of listing in May of 2021, 22 types.
10:13 And now in the last two years, from May 2022,
10:16 it's gone up from that sub 10% mark to 16.5% plus
10:22 and it's a large company to be able to do that.
10:24 What they've actually done is they've switched towards non-par.
10:27 And in terms of the non-par number, again, extremely strong.
10:31 You've seen a 49% growth in non-par AP
10:35 and that number has come in just below the 3,300 crore mark.
10:39 So overall, it looks like a very, very strong set of numbers.
10:43 Also, one more key positive is your 13-month persistency ratios
10:48 for the nine months have improved from 77.6% to 78%.
10:54 Your 61st month persistency has stayed level,
10:57 62.7 versus 62.4 currently.
11:00 So largely, it's a very solid set,
11:03 persistency going up, margins going up, profitability going up.
11:06 So, and it's a large-ish company, right?
11:09 And therefore, you're very likely to see a good reaction.
11:14 Certainly, and the float has to be taken into account as well.
11:16 Harsh, thanks so much for joining in and giving us that perspective.
11:19 We have to slip into a very quick break.
11:21 There's more action on the other side, so do stay tuned.
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14:15 Welcome back. You're watching All You Need To Know.
14:21 With the interim budget and the monetary policy decision out of the way,
14:24 the markets will look for direction, and possibly,
14:26 the next big event that will be tracked will be the general elections.
14:30 And ahead of that, the Modi government is seemingly pulling no punches.
14:34 Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Thursday
14:36 tabled a white paper on the Indian economy,
14:39 highlighting the BJP-led NDA government's achievements in the past decade
14:43 since it came to power, and also laying out what her government has described,
14:47 the failings of the UPA government led by the Congress.
14:51 My colleague, Muralidhar Swaminathan, is speaking to Krishnamurthy V Subramanian,
14:55 who is executive director at IMF, about some of those charges.
14:59 Let's listen in.
15:01 - Every month for 18 months, peaking at 17, 18 percent,
15:06 India becoming part of the Fragile Five.
15:09 Now India has become part of the top five economies
15:11 because of a much better policy response.
15:13 Overall, I think these three things stand out.
15:16 The data intensiveness, the focus on growth,
15:19 impact of policies on growth, and the focus on macroeconomic fundamentals.
15:23 - Absolutely. So that's a very interesting aspect to compare the two.
15:29 Though, of course, the document presented by the finance minister
15:33 lists 46 items which were not managed properly at that time
15:41 or which went out of control, as opposed to some 40 odd items
15:45 where the current political regime has done very well.
15:49 But that's a political argument.
15:51 Let me focus on the economics or the economy part of this.
15:55 The global crisis, let me take our viewers back.
15:59 The effect by the end of 2007 till about 2010-11, I think was unprecedented.
16:07 It's something that we have not seen in this modern era.
16:10 It absolutely did not spare any country.
16:14 But it would have been very tough to manage,
16:17 but still we got away with small bruises.
16:20 How would you respond to it?
16:22 - I think it's important to highlight that India did not face the impact of the crisis immediately,
16:35 but by using policies that were more or less a cut-paste of what the advanced economies were doing,
16:45 primarily a very large demand-side stimulus.
16:49 This is something that I've always articulated.
16:52 While economic trade-offs remain the same across countries,
16:56 boundary conditions are different,
16:58 and having been a business school professor,
17:00 I understand the supply side of the economy very well.
17:03 One of the things that stands out is that supply-side frictions,
17:07 we economists use this term basically to focus on the fact that when supply does not respond immediately,
17:15 supply-side frictions are far more salient in a country like India than in advanced economies like the US.
17:21 By doing a demand-side stimulus, using the crisis as a reason to actually really expand significantly on revenue expenditures,
17:31 you will remember that the farm loan waiver that was about 65,000-70,000 crores at that time,
17:38 a very large, by far among the, I think possibly the largest farm loan waiver among emerging economies.
17:46 All right. So you can tune into that conversation.
17:50 Of course, it is live on our social media platforms, and you can switch if you like, or you can watch it later.
17:55 For now, let's turn to earnings and talk about the pharma space where we've got significant developments.
18:00 We've got Varsha who is joining in with some of those details.
18:03 Varsha, what can you tell us? Morning.
18:05 Good morning, Alex. So let's start with Biocon where the net profit have beaten estimates.
18:11 Now if you see, the revenue was up to 34%.
18:14 Now revenue from operation includes income from the divestiture of two non-core business assets amounting to 350 crores.
18:21 And net profit of 753 crores includes other income that is again of 456 crores,
18:28 mainly from the fair valuation of Biocons holding in Biocara Therapeuty.
18:32 So that's the reason we are seeing uptick in revenue led by net profit.
18:36 Now the other company that I have is AstroDM Healthcare where if you see India business grew 23% year on year.
18:43 Now this is led by expansion of over 750 beds within the past year.
18:48 And EBITDA and profit growth is led by cost optimization and operational efficiencies.
18:53 Then we have Shilpa Medicare where you see revenue is up 9%, but this huge uptick in margin.
18:59 So margin stands at 23% versus 11% last year.
19:03 Now improved operational efficiencies and cost rationalization with focus on development of niche opportunities has led to increase in EBITDA margins.
19:11 A company has approved a fund raising of rupees 500 crores as well.
19:16 Lastly, we have Orchid Pharma where if you see revenue is up 38%, but EBITDA is up over 2x now.
19:23 The reason is the cost of material if you see with respect to revenue which was 60% last year came down to 55%.
19:31 This is the reason we are seeing huge uptick in EBITDA.
19:33 Understood. Alright, thanks Varsha for that.
19:36 Let's talk about United Breweries as well as Patanjali Foods and Grasim Industries.
19:41 They are in focus on account of earnings as well.
19:43 And we've got Mahima to tell you some of the details there. Mahima, morning, what stood out?
19:47 Morning Alex. So United Brewery, the net profit missed its estimates.
19:52 However, there is a profit as compared to loss in Q3 FY23.
19:57 So that's a good sign.
19:59 Well, if you talk about the key highlights, there has been a good volume recovery.
20:03 The volumes have grown by 8%.
20:05 Their focus on premiumization strategies still is on the track.
20:09 The premium segment has grown by 14% this quarter.
20:12 And they have seen some kind of inflationary softening.
20:16 So overall, United Breweries has had a good set of numbers.
20:21 Then we have Patanjali Foods, where Patanjali Foods have missed analyst estimates.
20:25 There has been some recovery in the edible oil segment.
20:28 However, the input price inflation has exerted some kind of pressure on the cost structures.
20:33 Overall, there has been 14% divergence in the soya oil futures.
20:38 And also there has been some kind of unexpected seasonal pressures because of which the performance has gone down.
20:44 Also, their advertisement spends have gone extremely up.
20:47 The stock in trade has increased and finance costs have also gone up.
20:50 And lastly, Grasim.
20:51 Grasim Industries has shown a net loss.
20:56 Sorry, they have had a net profit which is down 41%.
20:59 However, this is on account of a one-off.
21:01 In Q3 FY23, they had recorded an exceptional item of net gain.
21:05 Otherwise, their profit has been up 48% year on year.
21:08 And their VSF sales volumes have also gone up 34%.
21:12 So overall, good resumes for Grasim as well.
21:14 Got it. Thanks so much for bringing us those details, Mahima.
21:17 Sticking with earnings, we have got IRCON, ITD Cementation and various others that are also in focus.
21:23 And we have got Anushi joining us with some of those details.
21:26 Anushi, what can you tell us? Morning.
21:28 Morning, Alex.
21:29 So starting off with some stronger set of numbers, IRCON International has shown about a 22% of revenue growth.
21:34 While its EBITDA and margins have improved also.
21:37 But net profit has seen an even higher growth compared to the revenue at about 28% to Rs. 245 crore.
21:44 But it is to be noted that this was on the back of higher other income which has gone up by about 69% this quarter.
21:51 Coming to the order book status, the order book status has shrunk to about Rs. 29,000 crore compared to Rs. 32,000 crore it had clocked in the earlier quarter of last year.
22:02 Next, moving on to ITD Cementation, strong set of numbers beating market expectations with the revenues going up about 52% and the EBITDA seeing about a 100% jump.
22:12 The margins have also improved to 10% compared to 7% earlier.
22:16 Even over a year, the net profit has almost doubled.
22:19 But this is also on the account of higher other income which stood at about Rs. 12.3 crore compared to about Rs. 0.7 crore last year.
22:27 Other than that, the company has secured about 1,200 worth of orders and its order book now stands at about Rs. 20,000 crore.
22:36 Now, coming to the weaker set of numbers, there is Torrent Power which has recorded a revenue decline of about 1% and while its EBITDA has seen an even bigger decline at about 28%.
22:48 While they have attributed this due to the reduction in net gain from trading of LNG and merchant power sales, but the other factor is also the higher fuel cost compared to the last year.
22:59 Last on the list is Rail Vikas Nigam which has missed all expectations with the revenues seeing about a 6% decline and its margins also shrinking.
23:08 Again, the stock has moved about 3X in just one year.
23:12 So, definitely anticipation of some negative reaction in the markets for today.
23:17 Certainly, absolutely. Thanks so much for getting us those details.
23:21 In fact, we will talk about a few of the plays in the PSU space, not necessarily in the railway space.
23:27 Of course, you should stay tuned for that in the next show.
23:30 We have got more earnings to talk about.
23:32 Mihika is joining in to tell you about JK Lakshmi Cement as well as Ramco Cement and K&R Construction, all plays in the construction and cement space.
23:41 What are the numbers that you are focusing on Mihika? Morning.
23:44 Morning. So, let us start off with Ramco Cements where it was a revenue beat but a profit miss.
23:49 Now, revenues were up 9% while EBITDAs, revenues were up 4.9% while EBITDA was up 40% and the reported profit was also up 59.28%.
24:02 And this was mainly back on two things.
24:04 One was the cement sales that grew 24% year on year and the EBITDA per ton also improved by 37% year on year.
24:14 And power fuel costs were down by Rs. 543 per ton.
24:19 The company also approved a capacity expansion which is at their Kalavatana plant in Andhra Pradesh.
24:26 And they are going to add clinker capacity of 3.15 million tons per annum and a cement manufacturing capacity of 1.5 million tons per annum as well as a waste heat recovery system of 15 megawatts.
24:40 And this will take an investment of Rs. 1250 crores and completed in 18 months.
24:47 Then we have JK Lakshmi Cement which was a revenue and a profit beat.
24:54 Revenue up 9% while the EBITDA was up 64.7% and margins stood at 17.9% versus 11.9% a year ago and profit showed a 93.9% year on year growth.
25:08 The company also approved a Rs. 2,500 crore fund raise via a long term loans or the issue of debt securities and they will use this to finance ongoing and the future expansion projects.
25:21 They also approved an interim dividend of Rs. 2 per equity share and the record date is set for Feb 21st.
25:28 And lastly we have K&R Construction where revenues were up 13.74% margins improved by 11 basis points and the reported profit was up 26.46%.
25:42 Now according to the investor presentation their order book now stands at Rs. 4,096.46 crores and the road sector was responsible for around 40% of that and the irrigation sector was around 30%.
25:59 There is also Rs. 1,780 crore worth of orders that are still not added and included in the order book so they do have a long term earning visibility as well.
26:08 Alright, thanks so much Megha for getting us those details. Certainly stocks that you have to watch out for in trade today.
26:13 A lot on the earnings front to talk about of course and you will find a lot of stock specific information in the upcoming show that is India Market Open.
26:21 Do stay tuned. This is NDTV Profit.
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