Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast takes a thorough examination of the QB position for the Silver and Black, and the authenticity of Antonio Pierce.
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00:00 Hello, everybody.
00:03 This is Hondo Carpenter from the Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
00:07 Great to be with you all today, joined by my good friend, the editor and publisher of
00:13 thespun.com, my fellow colleague, working with all that we do.
00:18 Of course, I'm with Sports Illustrated's Fan Nation and he's with The Spun, but we're all
00:22 the same parent company.
00:24 And we are all glad to be with you guys today.
00:26 Matt, we have so many issues that I want to cover and it's all Raiders today.
00:32 We may, depending on time, we may tap on one issue that's not, that is, that affects the
00:38 Raiders, but not just Raiders.
00:40 I want to talk to you about Antonio Pierce.
00:44 I, none of us knows if he's the next John Madden, but I do believe he was the right
00:53 choice and deserves that opportunity to prove who he is.
00:59 But I'm concerned about one thing.
01:02 And almost as soon as everyone was, not everyone, but a lot of people, we want AP to get the
01:07 job.
01:08 Then people were saying, you got to hire this, you got to hire that, you got to hire this,
01:11 you got to hire that.
01:12 You got to go get this guy.
01:13 You got to go do whatever.
01:16 I am, I like him for a lot of reasons and you and I are very similar on some things.
01:23 You and I are very different on some things.
01:26 And I think the reason our friendship has lasted almost two decades is because we appreciate
01:31 that the other may not be exactly like me, but they're genuine.
01:35 They're real.
01:36 I know who Matt Heladic is.
01:39 And I love that about you, by the way.
01:42 But my concern is I don't want to see AP get lost in all of the a coup de ma.
01:55 I think if he's going to be successful, he has to pull a Frank Sinatra and do it his
02:01 way.
02:02 What got him here is not the traditional way.
02:06 So to get here now and act traditional, I think is a death sentence to his head coaching
02:12 career in the National Football League.
02:14 He needs to be who he is.
02:16 I'm not saying there's any threat of him not, but I think there's a threat of people around
02:21 him trying to make him into somebody he's not.
02:24 He is who he is.
02:25 I love him for exactly who he is.
02:28 I think he's got a chance to be not a good coach.
02:31 I think he's got a chance to be a great coach and super successful.
02:35 But to thine own self, be true.
02:37 I'm concerned about this.
02:40 What do you think?
02:42 I think, you know, looking around the league and around the history of the league, there's
02:48 been coaches who have been their authentic selves and they've been, you know, who they
02:53 are and they fail.
02:55 But I don't know if there's been any coaches who have kind of put on airs or tried to change
02:59 who they were or do things differently at the start and been successful.
03:05 You've heard of people who have changed or tweaked things during their careers.
03:10 An example would be, you know, out here in New York with the Giants, Tom Coughlin, always
03:15 very strict and regimented coming in.
03:19 And after three years with the Giants, his players didn't like him.
03:24 The media couldn't stand him.
03:25 He almost got fired.
03:27 He had to make some adjustments to his personality.
03:29 Didn't completely change who he was, but he had to make some adjustments to his personality.
03:34 Antonio Pierce knows that well because he played for Tom Coughlin at that time.
03:37 He understands that.
03:39 But if you start to put on an entirely fake or modified persona or approach to the job
03:47 and you're not authentic and true to yourself, it's going to be figured out pretty quickly.
03:52 I think especially in the case of an Antonio Pierce who got promoted from the interim gig
03:57 who, the players he has now know him.
04:01 They know who he is.
04:02 They know what he stands for.
04:03 They know what he's about.
04:04 So anytime he tries to totally deviate from that or be different, it's going to set off
04:09 alarm bells.
04:10 So I do think that doesn't mean as you go along, you don't try to adapt or try to make
04:15 some tweaks or changes, but you have to be true to who you are.
04:18 You have to be authentically you and the way you run a team has to be in that image.
04:26 And I think that that's going to be key.
04:28 And I'm not worried about him becoming synthetic because he is authentic.
04:35 I'm worried about people around him trying to make him or influence him to do things.
04:46 For example, I thought it was brilliant.
04:50 I didn't think it was good.
04:51 I thought it was, you have known me for a long time and you've heard me say numerous
04:56 times, there are certain jobs you don't get to go give a first time coach.
05:01 I liked Antonio Pierce when he was on Josh McDaniels' staff and would have never picked
05:07 him to be the head coach, but because he was able to get some experience as an interim,
05:12 then I thought, okay, this is a great hire.
05:16 My point is, I don't want people around him.
05:20 I like his gutsy.
05:22 I like his honesty.
05:23 I like his approach.
05:27 I like him when he's being interviewed because he isn't Josh McDaniels.
05:31 He isn't the typical coach.
05:34 I like the way, I know him, so I kind of have a different view.
05:42 I'm going to use a word that I don't like, but I can't think of a better one, his edgy,
05:47 because there's nothing edgy as far as a jerk about him, but I like the fact, no, I'll tell
05:55 you what I think.
05:57 That's my concern.
05:58 I like to see guys, I'll give you a great story.
06:02 The former Dallas Cowboys coach, Norv Turner, he gets the job with Washington and I believe
06:11 he had been a head coach before that and it had failed miserably.
06:17 Maybe he hadn't, but he goes to Washington and he talked about, I'm going to get fired
06:27 or I'm going to keep my job based on what happens at the field and I'm going to be me.
06:33 It was Troy Aikman, I believe, that gave him that advice, but he failed.
06:38 He didn't stay a head coach, but I've always respected Norv because he never tried to be
06:44 Jimmy.
06:45 He never tried to be somebody else.
06:47 The thing that I really like about AP, and there are a lot of things, but I love that
06:53 he's who he is.
06:54 He brings in Coughlin, he brings in Marvin Lewis, he brings in these guys.
07:00 He doesn't care to admit, I don't know what I don't know, because he wants to keep the
07:05 job, it's his dream job.
07:07 He brings in those guys saying, "Hey, screw all y'all.
07:09 You don't like it?
07:10 I don't care.
07:11 I'm bringing in these guys."
07:12 That's what I'm talking about.
07:13 I don't want that edge lost.
07:16 No, I agree.
07:18 I think you always want that person to have that competitive edge.
07:23 I think it stems from his days as a player and he brought that over to coaching.
07:29 I think that the fact he's able to reach out and have those type of successful head coaches
07:34 as resources, and he's not only willing but eager to use them, is a good early sign.
07:43 I like the fact that he went out, he talked to Tom Coughlin, had Coughlin come in and
07:48 give him some guidance.
07:49 Same thing, hiring Marvin Lewis, a guy who's been a head coach for 15 years or so, however
07:54 long he was with the Bengals.
07:56 I think that's all resources and things that you can draw back on, because things are going
08:01 to come up in the job as the head coach, the full-time head coach that you've never experienced
08:07 before, even as the interim.
08:09 You're going to need people in your corner that are going to be able to help you deal
08:13 with that.
08:14 I think that was a good sign that he was willing to bring those people in.
08:19 I want to stay on the Raiders, obviously, but I want to get into something.
08:25 I think Raider Nation has a lot to be excited about.
08:31 You were the last team to beat the Kansas City Chiefs.
08:36 I think San Francisco did a lot of what Patrick Graham's game plan was to beat the Chiefs,
08:43 I mean to try to beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
08:47 You go back to joint practices, they dominated San Francisco in the joint practices.
08:53 I'm not even talking about the preseason game is irrelevant, doesn't matter.
08:59 But they beat them up good.
09:01 To me, if you're the Raiders, you looked at you ended 5-4, but there is a lot of reasons
09:08 I believe in Raider Nation to be extremely optimistic.
09:13 What are your thoughts on that?
09:14 I agree, and again, we've talked about it before.
09:19 You have to recognize, listen, it's not going to be easy sledding because you're in division
09:23 with the Chiefs, and now you're in division with the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh, who has
09:27 a tradition of winning, and you still have Sean Payton in Denver.
09:30 I think they'll have a different quarterback next year, but he's a guy that's won at the
09:36 NFL level for a long time.
09:38 So it's not going to be easy, but I do think there are some reasons for optimism.
09:42 You saw the way at the end of the year, the roster is not devoid of talent.
09:46 It's not like they're scrapping it totally and tearing it down to the studs to have a
09:51 rebuilding project.
09:53 So I think that there are some causes for optimism.
09:57 You went from six wins in 2022 to eight wins this year, so there was that improvement.
10:05 I think there are some reasons to look forward to the future and to feel like maybe this
10:12 time around it will be different compared to the last few hires that they've had.
10:18 I agree with you, Matt.
10:20 So, interesting for me is looking at the Raiders.
10:25 Now, they have full approval by Mark Davis to move up as far as they need to, in their
10:33 opinion, to go get a generational quarterback.
10:39 Some people take that green light as "they're going," which is dumb, because they don't
10:48 know what they're going to do.
10:50 There's a lot of process they've got to go through.
10:53 There's a lot of investigation that goes on.
10:57 There is so much that goes into, if you're going to make that humongous of an investment,
11:06 number one, is the guy worth it?
11:11 Number two, do you understand?
11:15 You may have the green light of Mark Davis.
11:18 By the way, I think every owner should give his management team the green light if they
11:25 believe there is a generational quarterback to go get them, because they're too precious.
11:32 But that same owner is now going to hold you accountable because you're mortgaging the
11:37 future to buy a present if they're not a generational quarterback.
11:44 I think sometimes people are so excited to have a generational quarterback, and they
11:50 should be.
11:51 You should be excited to have a generational quarterback.
11:56 But they're so excited to get it, they need to top-tap the brakes for a minute, because
12:02 now all the pressure is on Telesco and Pierce.
12:07 Are you willing to risk?
12:09 If Telesco gets fired again, he's not going to get a third shot at it as a general manager.
12:14 And AP, chances are if he gets fired, he's not going to get a second shot.
12:22 If there's no success here first, now they have to go in and think, "Okay, are we willing
12:28 to gamble on this guy?"
12:30 There are so many moving pieces, and we're only in March.
12:34 To me, that's what makes this fascinating.
12:35 I mean, March.
12:36 February.
12:37 We're not even in Valentine's Day.
12:38 February.
12:39 Your thoughts on that?
12:42 The other thing, too, that you have to always remember, and I think a lot of fans forget,
12:48 because a lot of fans are talking about, "Let's trade up and get a quarterback," or wherever
12:53 we are, "We don't like this.
12:55 Let's trade back.
12:56 Trade back.
12:57 Get more picks."
12:58 You have to have a willing partner.
13:00 You have to have a team that's willing to trade with you and agree on the compensation.
13:05 Now the Raiders are ... Where are they picking again, the Raiders?
13:08 I'm sorry.
13:09 Thirteenth.
13:10 Thirteenth.
13:11 Okay.
13:12 I was going to say twelfth, but I thought that was wrong.
13:13 So thirteenth.
13:14 Say they want to move up into the top three to get one of the big quarterbacks in this
13:23 trail.
13:24 You have to find a partner, whether it's the Bears at one, or Washington or New England
13:31 with the next two picks, that is willing to have you move up.
13:37 That means that they don't want a quarterback, and quarterbacks are being discussed for those
13:42 three teams.
13:44 You also have to make sure you're giving up a tremendous amount of capital to move up
13:50 from thirteenth to one.
13:52 Especially if one of those ... Or thirteenth to two or three.
13:55 Especially if one of those teams has offers from another team to move up a few spots.
14:02 So it has to be a deal you're comfortable with doing.
14:05 Also, and again, the NFL is a proven league.
14:08 It's not a league for patience, so the clock is already ticking.
14:14 Antonio Pierce has a lot of goodwill with the fans, but if they don't win enough games,
14:19 that's going to dissipate quickly.
14:21 But, the thing is ...
14:23 I want to ... I'm sorry, go ahead.
14:25 I was going to say, and you alluded to it, if you go up and get a quarterback, you're
14:30 starting ... That's your guy.
14:32 Antonio Pierce, Tom Telesco, and Caleb Williams, or Drake May, or Jayden Danz, whoever they
14:38 prefer, they're tied at the hip.
14:41 So now, you are ... You're going to sink or swim with that guy.
14:46 Yep.
14:48 So, I talked to an NFL executive today, and I thought you'd find this interesting.
14:54 I asked him, "What's the moving price today to one to three?"
15:02 This is what he told me.
15:04 "What I'm hearing right now is that one is available, but because they've not yet made
15:11 a decision, you have to overpay for one."
15:15 Okay?
15:18 Two is not available, so Washington's going to take a quarterback.
15:23 Three, it's more of a get back to us, they're still trying to figure out a plan.
15:33 So, if you're going to move up before the draft, then the question becomes, "Okay, who
15:41 do I like?"
15:42 Okay?
15:43 So, let's just say Jayden Danz.
15:45 And I think early in the process ... Well, I'm not going to say ... I can't say too much.
15:54 That would be wrong of me.
15:56 Okay?
15:57 Let's just say Jayden Danz.
15:59 So, then you've got to look and say, "Okay, do we move to three?"
16:04 Because then what happens if somebody decides, "Okay, we want Jayden," and they overpay
16:12 and move to one?
16:13 Now, we moved all the way up there and that's the only guy we believed in?
16:16 Okay?
16:20 But that's something that's got to be considered.
16:23 Then, do we just overpay and go to one so we know by God we're going to get whoever
16:30 we want?
16:31 Now, they may say, "We like all three of them, so we'll move to three and take whoever
16:39 falls to us."
16:40 Fine.
16:41 If you think there are three ... If you think those three are generational quarterbacks,
16:45 and I don't know anybody who does yet, but I know some who like each.
16:52 But if you think they're all three, then you can move to three.
16:55 And then, okay, if you only think there's two, then you better not pay to move up to
16:59 three.
17:00 You better get to one.
17:01 I mean, yeah, there is a lot of moving parts here, Matt.
17:06 And I find that fascinating and sometimes folks don't think about that, do they?
17:11 No, they don't.
17:12 And I think that it's very ... To me, it's rare.
17:17 I'm sure there's an instance of this in the past that I'd have to go back and look
17:23 at.
17:24 But I feel like this is one of the first times I can remember where the top three picks in
17:30 the draft all have a potential need at quarterback, but also could move out of the pick.
17:41 Although it sounds like Washington is really dead set on staying there too and taking who
17:47 they want.
17:48 But the Bears, I think if I were reading the tea leaves and guessing, I think their preference
17:56 would be to select a rookie and start the clock over and then try to trade Justin Fields
18:02 to another team.
18:04 But they don't have to do that.
18:06 They could, if somebody brings them a godfather offer, like you said, and says, "We're
18:12 giving you two or three first rounders and other picks and players," whatever, and
18:18 they could say, "Listen, we can't turn this down.
18:23 We're going to take it and we're going to see what we got with Justin Fields again
18:28 and we'll adjust if he really can't do the job with these other assets."
18:35 But like you said, you can't just move up to three unless you're comfortable getting
18:43 one of whoever is left of those three.
18:47 Because a quarterback is going one, whether the Bears draft it or somebody trades up and
18:54 takes that spot.
18:56 And a quarterback's going two.
18:58 So that means if you're third, you're getting the third choice.
19:01 And you'd better be comfortable with what that third choice is.
19:05 So I think that to me, unless you have all three equally, you're better off trading
19:13 up to one before the draft.
19:16 Unless something happens on draft night, crazy or whatever.
19:19 Yeah, and then there's the other thing.
19:22 Do the Bears try to trade Fields?
19:24 Because once they pick somebody at one, Fields' value plummets.
19:30 Right.
19:31 What they're going to get for it.
19:32 And then there's so many things that go on.
19:38 I laugh sometimes because I don't think people understand the minutiae of the draft.
19:45 They just think, oh, you go to three, get this guy, it's over.
19:47 And listen, 60% of quarterbacks picked in the first round fail.
19:52 And you've got to accept that if you're the guy moving.
19:56 Now, here's the other approach.
19:59 We have written a lot and talked about the dangers of moving up.
20:06 But I've had people say to me, wow, Hondo's against moving up.
20:09 No, I'm not.
20:11 I'm the first one to, and you've known me almost two decades.
20:15 You've heard me say this every year.
20:17 If you think a guy is a generational talent, you have to move up.
20:21 You cannot approach the draft in fear.
20:25 But you have to address it in smarts.
20:28 Okay, you're not sold that one of them is, you know, I had a guy one time say to me, a GM.
20:34 Well, I think this guy could be it.
20:36 I said, oh, you're going to go get him?
20:38 Hell no.
20:39 Well, what do you mean?
20:41 Thinking he can and knowing he can are two different things, and I'm not risking my job.
20:46 And I think, and I thought that was one of the best analysis I've ever heard.
20:52 But that gets into the draft, moving up for a quarterback.
20:58 You've got to be all sold.
21:00 And if you're all sold, if you think that's my Peyton Manning, that is my Andrew Luck,
21:06 that's my Dan Marino, that's my John Elway, that's my Troy Aikman, that's my Patrick Mahomes,
21:13 whatever you, if you think that, then you don't even look at the cost.
21:19 Because that is the most important position.
21:22 I don't care.
21:23 Take whatever you want.
21:24 I'm moving up.
21:26 But you better be right.
21:29 And you can't approach it with fear, but boy, you better approach it with brains, right?
21:33 Right. I think of past conversations we had, we talked about when the Bears moved up to take Mitch Tobisky.
21:40 You said that if they believe in him, it's a worthwhile move, but they're going to sink or swim with him.
21:47 Look at the Niners, who have been able to overcome the fact they gave up so much to trade up with Trey Lance,
21:55 who ended up doing nothing for them.
21:57 But I also don't think you want, here's the thing, the quarterback is by far the most important position in football.
22:03 You need a quarterback to maximize your team's ceiling and to contend for championships and be good on a yearly basis.
22:12 But I don't think you want to draft a quarterback just to take one, just to force one.
22:18 Because, and I look at a situation, I look at, you know, and I know I bring it back to the Giants a lot,
22:25 but as the team, I probably know the best.
22:27 The Giants have the sixth pick this year.
22:29 I think they scouted these quarterbacks a lot.
22:32 And I think they would be okay with potentially taking one.
22:36 But if they're not going to move up to get one of the top three, assuming they really like one of the top three,
22:45 unless they really love J.J. McCarthy or whoever, and they think they feel confident taking them at six,
22:54 they're almost better off not taking the quarterback at six, unless they really feel confident in the guy.
23:00 Because that's how, even if you're looking to replace Daniel Jones, that's how you end up with another Daniel Jones.
23:06 Because what happened was in 2019, they said, we need a quarterback.
23:11 Eli Manning's coming into the line, we need a quarterback, we need a quarterback.
23:15 And they talked themselves into a guy who wasn't worth the sixth overall pick.
23:20 And there's been other instances of that in the past where teams have – I'm just thinking about E.J. Manuel with the Bills,
23:29 and Christian Ponder with the Vikings.
23:31 We're going back now 11, 12, 13 years.
23:34 But where you said, we're taking a quarterback in the first round, and you get a guy who isn't worthy of that selection, who's not good enough.
23:45 And I think that that becomes a problem, too.
23:48 So I agree with you.
23:50 I think if you – quarterback is so important that if you have a guy you're dead set on, you're sold, and you believe in, go get him.
23:57 Go take him early, go up and get him, do what you have to do.
24:02 But don't just take somebody because you – in the first round because you think they can be good enough.
24:10 Take somebody because you feel that they are good enough and they can be great.
24:14 Yeah, I won't mention the player, but I remember it was not a quarterback, but I remember there was a guy that everybody had penciled into the Lions,
24:23 and Matt Millen told me flat out when he was general manager, I'm not taking him, don't believe in him.
24:28 And boy, did Matt turn out to be right on that one.
24:32 But I agree with you.
24:34 You can't approach the draft afraid, but you have to approach the draft with purpose.
24:42 And again, that's a generational guy, go get him.
24:46 And the cost be damned.
24:48 But if you're not 100% sold because you're putting your life on the line, your coaching or general managing life, boy, you don't do it.
25:00 All right, let's talk about some guys.
25:03 We've talked a lot about Drake May.
25:06 We've talked a lot about Caleb Williams.
25:08 We've talked a lot about Jane Daniels.
25:13 We've talked about JJ McCarthy, which the people who I trust, you may remember this.
25:20 In fact, let's go back. Remember our show we did right after Trubisky was picked and you just referenced that show.
25:27 And I told and I said then if they think this is their guy, then you know what?
25:32 They didn't overpay, but they're going to be judged.
25:34 But you may remember I said on that show, the people I trust who've drafted quarterback success successfully are telling me, boy, they way overpaid for Trubisky.
25:44 I'm not sold on the guy.
25:46 That same guy who told me that about Trubisky and others has just shared with me some opinions about stuff going on, and I'm getting a lot of good analysis.
25:56 He thinks McCarthy is the second best quarterback in this draft.
26:01 So we've already talked about him. I want to move on from him.
26:04 Bo Nix, I like Bo. Very accurate in college.
26:10 This is a kid that's done a lot of really good stuff.
26:13 He was not good last week.
26:16 He struggled last week.
26:19 And boy, I reported that and people were like, are you nuts?
26:22 Do you not know?
26:24 That's why it was a story because he has it.
26:28 So I think his stock fell a little bit.
26:31 I still think he's going to probably go in the first round.
26:33 I'm not saying that, but his stock dropped a little bit because of around better competition.
26:39 Some new teammates.
26:41 He struggled a little bit.
26:44 Okay, Penix, nobody dislikes Penix.
26:48 It's just the injury history with him.
26:50 That's the only thing with him.
26:52 If he didn't have the injury history, we'd be talking about probably the top four.
26:59 But it's not just been one injury.
27:01 It's been multiple.
27:02 So that's where the worry comes in.
27:05 But I'm going to give you a name.
27:06 So there's six guys that potentially could go in the first round.
27:10 Okay.
27:11 In fact, they very well may.
27:19 But I'm going to talk to you about a guy who stunned people at the Senior Bowl.
27:25 Spencer Rattler.
27:27 He looked sharp.
27:32 His cognitive ability, his brain, his talents, his technique.
27:41 I heard from multiple.
27:43 I didn't hear from one or two.
27:45 Multiple.
27:46 I heard from QB people.
27:47 I've heard from people who I don't think are QB people who are like, "Whoa."
27:53 Do you see a scenario, Matt, where Spencer Rattler gets up in the first round?
28:01 That would be -- at this point, I would be surprised.
28:05 But it is interesting because you're talking about a guy who two or three years ago,
28:11 people were mentioning as a potential number one overall pick in the entire draft.
28:16 He had that kind of reputation coming out of high school
28:19 and through the beginning of his time at Oklahoma.
28:25 And then, of course, we saw what happened.
28:27 He struggles in the 2021 season at Oklahoma.
28:32 Caleb Williams replaces him.
28:34 And the rest was kind of history for both those guys.
28:39 Spencer Rattler has a lot of big-time tools.
28:42 And I think that a team is going to be enticed by them.
28:48 They're going to think he's a moldable guy, a guy you can work with and kind of transform
28:53 and make a starting caliber quarterback.
28:58 Is it going to be a first-round team?
29:00 I don't know.
29:01 Maybe late in the first round you could see.
29:03 But he is an interesting prospect to me.
29:07 He's the type of guy that I think you can see a GM and see a coach,
29:12 especially a coach who has worked with quarterbacks before,
29:14 kind of talk themselves into or get excited about.
29:19 Yeah, I'm going to tell you what.
29:21 My one particular buddy whose team is very good at drafting quarterbacks,
29:25 they don't really need one, but he said he did enough for us.
29:31 We're kicking the tires on Spencer Rattler now.
29:33 We're going to talk to him at the combine.
29:35 We're going to -- he kind of moved on our board.
29:39 They're going to be picking down in the lower part of the first half.
29:42 And he said that he could be there.
29:46 I just thought that was fascinating.
29:48 I thought that Spencer Rattler/Bo Nix talk was very, very fascinating.
29:53 Again, I think this is going to shape up to be one of the -- I don't know if it's going to pan out.
29:58 We're only going to know that in 15 years, to be one of the best quarterbacks.
30:03 But I think it could be one of the most quarterback-selected first rounds ever.
30:12 You agree, disagree?
30:14 We've had -- I'm trying to think.
30:15 What's the record, five or six?
30:18 I know in 2018 we had five.
30:22 That was the Mayfield, Darnold, and Josh Allen class, Lamar.
30:27 Right.
30:29 So, I mean, I could see -- I could see a scenario where we equal that, where five guys are off the board in the first round.
30:39 Because I think that, you know, the top -- the three are going, definitely.
30:44 And I think that somebody is going to believe enough in J.J. McCarthy to take him somewhere in the first round.
30:51 Could be higher than we expect right now, but I would expect he goes in the first round.
30:55 So that's four.
30:56 Now, the fifth, is the fifth going to be a Knicks?
30:59 Is it a Panicks?
31:01 Or do people think they're more day-two guys?
31:03 Does someone talk themselves later in the first round into a Rattler?
31:07 Like you said, they may not need a quarterback.
31:09 Sometimes the best time to take one is when you don't necessarily need one.
31:13 You know, you look at -- that's what Green Bay has done multiple times in the past, and it's worked out great for them.
31:19 So, that's what Kansas City did with Patrick Mahomes.
31:24 Obviously, they felt like they needed somebody with more ceiling than Alex Smith,
31:28 which is why they moved up to get Patrick Mahomes.
31:31 But they didn't need him to start.
31:33 They won.
31:34 Alex Smith started that entire 2017 season, and they were a very good team.
31:38 So, sometimes that's when you -- it's a good time to take a quarterback.
31:43 I would say I have a feeling this is just a -- my gut right now, I think the over/under on first-round quarterbacks is 4.5.
31:52 I lean the over.
31:54 I think five go at this time right now, mid-February.
31:59 Yeah, I agree with you.
32:01 All right, I want to talk about Aiden O'Connell.
32:04 This is a guy in today's -- now, I'm not going to change who I am.
32:12 You've known me long enough that you'll call me out for it because we're real friends.
32:16 I like a quarterback that has some mobility.
32:19 I've always said that.
32:21 I'll always maintain it.
32:23 That's how I believe.
32:25 I don't need him to be Randall Cunningham.
32:30 I don't want him to be Randall Cunningham.
32:32 I think that hurt him.
32:33 I think Randall was a better quarterback if somebody would have taught him how to be like Patrick Mahomes and run when he wants to --
32:40 I mean, when he needs to, not when he wants to.
32:46 But I'm a buyer on that.
32:49 But I think a lot of people are discontinuing Aiden O'Connell, who did -- only thing he did was what he was asked to do.
32:59 The last four games, I mean, the kid's got eight touchdowns.
33:03 Last five games, I think it was, he had nine touchdowns, one interception.
33:09 I think there's mobility there because I've seen him run some at Purdue and other places.
33:15 That's going to have to be coached.
33:18 I think he has enough mobility to be that.
33:21 Now, I still would draft a quarterback because I love the competition.
33:25 So I'm not saying don't draft a quarterback.
33:28 I'm saying I would.
33:30 But I think a lot of Raider fans are throwing him on the trash heap because, well, I didn't see this, I didn't see that.
33:37 Well, some of that was coaching that didn't want to see that.
33:40 Some of it -- I just think there's something there.
33:45 I think talking to people around the NFL, he impressed a lot of people.
33:49 Do you think Raider fan is taking a risk if they just throw away Aiden O'Connell?
33:57 Career backup.
33:58 Boy, I'll tell you what, after what I saw this year, I can't make the decision that he's Ken Stabler, but I can't make the decision he's a career backup either.
34:06 And that's kind of sentiment around the league.
34:08 Your thoughts?
34:09 No, I think there's a possibility he could be more than that.
34:11 He could be a functional starter and a guy that can start for you in the NFL.
34:18 I think, again, it still goes back to how much conviction you have on quarterbacks in the draft and how realistic it is for you to take one of them.
34:26 Because if you don't have conviction on a guy in this year's draft or you don't have a way to move up to get them, then I think instead of forcing it, you could say, all right, we have this kid.
34:40 We saw a little bit of what he could do last year.
34:43 Let's keep him.
34:44 Let's maybe pair him with a vet that has some experience, and let's go that route this year.
34:49 And if he doesn't really develop or he kind of shows the same skill set where he's like, OK, he's more of a backup and spot starter, well, then we're really in the market for a quarterback in 2025, whether it's in the draft or free agency trade, whatever.
35:06 So I think that there is a path in the future where he begins the year, 2024, he begins the season as the Raiders starter again.
35:16 I can see that.
35:19 Listen, I don't think that he's a guy who's going to start on an AFC champion or a Super Bowl team, but I think that he can be a guy who can be a quality enough starter, has the potential to be a quality of starter in the NFL, depending on how he continues to develop.
35:37 Yeah, what I saw as a rookie.
35:40 My belief that he hasn't shown me yet he's Ken Stabler is why you got to go pick another quarterback.
35:46 Right.
35:47 As long as you can get it.
35:50 Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely.
35:53 Absolutely.
35:54 But my point is, is that until you know you got your guy, you keep selecting a guy and letting everybody compete year after year after year after year.
36:03 I just think that's the smart way of doing it.
36:05 All right.
36:06 Sticking with Raider talk. The other thing that people don't understand is you look at your salary cap, you look at the free agents that are available.
36:17 Okay, if we can address significant needs in free agency, then I'm willing to give up draft capital to move up or whatever in a draft or potentially accumulate more income down.
36:33 So I think that's something else that people don't understand is it's also going to be impacted by the quality of free agency.
36:42 That's also true. I mean, you look at or a possible potential trade, you know, trades could shake up how the league goes.
36:49 We don't know exactly what teams are going to do.
36:52 We talked about one guy that could possibly get traded and that's Justin Fields.
36:57 And there might be some other guys out there as well.
37:00 Look at Russell Wilson. Where's he going to end up? How does that kind of affect the league?
37:05 Where's her cousin is going to end up? How does that kind of impact the league?
37:09 Baker Mayfield.
37:11 Baker Mayfield, of course. Yeah. You know, does he? I think the Bucs want to keep him, especially at the year he had.
37:17 But what are they willing to pay him? And then is there another team that's willing to pay him more?
37:22 It'll be it'll be interesting. There's a lot of moving parts.
37:26 And I always say this in general in terms of the draft is that unless you're you have a top one or two pick and you know you're going quarterback,
37:37 like absolutely knowing a lot of times you have with a lot of teams, you have to see how free agency shakes out before you can really hone in on what they want.
37:46 Because if they if you have a team that needs, you know, we need help with receiver, we need help with linebacker, we need help at safety and maybe could use an offensive lineman.
37:57 All right. Well, that's four positions. What are you going to do in the draft?
38:01 Well, if they trade for a receiver in March, then they're probably not taking one in the first round.
38:07 Or if they sign the biggest, you know, offensive tackle that's on the market.
38:12 Well, you can cross that position off. So I think you really will have to see.
38:17 I'm going to say in about a month from now, when or give or take a few days when the league years opened up and we've gotten some trades and we've gotten some signings,
38:28 you'll really start to know what the QB market looks like and what more teams are going to do.
38:33 Totally agree with you, Matt. It's been great having Raider quarterback coverage, man.
38:38 The whole thing today has been Raider quarterbacks. I know. I know. It's just we need to bring up some.
38:44 The only thing we didn't get was some, you know, Jim Plunkett, Darrell Lamonica talk, I think.
38:50 All right. Real quick. I think the Kansas City Chiefs did themselves a massive disservice.
39:02 Talking about a three-peat. I'm going to go right out right now and say it.
39:09 I do not believe they're going to repeat. And I'm going to just say it this way.
39:15 I watched the Pistons firsthand. They won in '89 and '90 and then started talking three-peat and the pressure was immense.
39:23 And I had more than one Piston on that team tell me one of the dumbest things we did is we talked three-peat.
39:30 Didn't matter if others did. And we put so much pressure on ourselves that it got to where we almost played not to lose
39:37 rather than our playing to win that won us two championships. I think it was dumb.
39:43 I don't I'm not calling them dumb, but I think it was dumb to get up there and do that.
39:49 I don't think they're going to. Real quick, your gut. I'm not saying I don't think they get to a Super Bowl.
39:54 I'm not sure yet, but I don't think they three-peat. Your thoughts.
39:58 I know you mentioned the Pistons because the Lakers had talked three-peat.
40:02 Pat Riley had said that and then they get to the finals for a third time and the Pistons beat them.
40:09 I'm going to take the opposite trajectory. I kind of like it. I do.
40:14 Now, listen, is it putting the pressure on? I'm sure it is. But you're talking about a team that.
40:20 At this point, why shouldn't they feel like they're going to repeat? Think about this.
40:25 In. Since Patrick Mahomes has been the starter. Now, this is six seasons.
40:30 They've been to the Super Bowl four times and one at three.
40:36 The only quarterbacks that have beaten Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs are Tom Brady, who's the greatest of all time, twice.
40:43 And Joe Burrow, who's a top three quarterback, three or four quarterback in the NFL.
40:46 And now he's healthy. They haven't experienced playoff playoff humbling, so to speak.
40:53 They are they have the best head coach in the league right now.
40:57 They have the best quarterback. They have the best big game defensive coordinator.
41:02 And they've won with their roster in flux the last couple of years.
41:07 This was supposed to be a rebuilding year. And early in the year, their receivers looked like they couldn't even walk and chew gum at the same time.
41:13 And they still figured it out. So to me, I think if you're the Chiefs and listen, they may get humbled.
41:20 Somebody may come up in the AFC next year and they smack them. Or there could be you know, you don't want to say this.
41:26 You don't want anyone to get hurt, but there could be an injury. It's football that could change the trajectory.
41:30 Look at what happened with Tom Brady when he tore his ACL that year with the Patriots.
41:37 You don't know what's going to happen. But from now, I think in the moment, them saying three feet,
41:42 they should feel like we have the ability to do what hasn't been done ever in the NFL.
41:48 And it's really hard to repeat. It's been impossible to repeat in the Super Bowl era.
41:53 But I think they should feel like they can do it.
41:56 Just going to say one thing. I never said that they shouldn't feel like they could do it.
42:01 But just throwing it out there, I think.
42:04 Them throwing it out there because every fan now, that's all that's going to be discussed.
42:12 Listen, I was there on Christmas Day and heard Chiefs Kingdom booing them.
42:20 They were bad.
42:22 And that's not taking away how well the Raiders played. The Chiefs looked terrible.
42:27 The Chiefs looked terrible because the Raiders beat them. They made Taylor Swift watch them just...
42:34 And so the thing I'm getting to is now you've just fed the machine.
42:42 You know, Saban talks about rat poison and about what the media and the fans say.
42:51 And he warns his players because the only thing worse than rat poison is when you poison yourself.
42:59 And now you've set the expectations.
43:02 Now Andy Reid goes into a press conference and they've lost two of three games.
43:08 And a media member says, "You know, Andy, your team has talked about you're going to three-peat.
43:14 You've lost two out of three."
43:18 It's not Andy saying, "No, you guys said that.
43:21 We're just trying to go back and build and..." No, no, no.
43:26 They've given no wiggle room.
43:30 I'm telling you right now, I'm going to say it right here.
43:34 I don't think they... And if they do, I will take my hat off because I think Andy Reid is the best coach in the NFL.
43:40 I think Patrick Mahomes is the best, absolute best quarterback.
43:46 I think Spaggs, if he's not one, he's two for defensive coordinators.
43:52 That's not disrespect of the Chiefs.
43:56 And I wasn't shocked that Kelsey was the one that did it to him either.
44:00 If I was Andy Reid, I'd be more mad at Kelsey doing that than the stupidity of him bumping into me.
44:06 And that was ridiculous.
44:08 What did you think? To me, that was just him acting the fool.
44:11 You know, throwing his helmet on Christmas.
44:14 Travis Kelsey getting a little too full of himself.
44:17 Listen, I think that I'm one of the people who believes that in general, in a vacuum,
44:22 a lot of times sideline blowups or intensity gets blown out of proportion.
44:30 I think that fans or even the media sometimes, we don't realize how intense it can be down there
44:37 and what gets said and what gets done during the course of a game.
44:40 Look even for Mahomes and Rasheed Rice going back and forth with each other at the end of regulation in the Super Bowl the other night.
44:46 However, what Travis Kelsey did, in my opinion, crossed the line.
44:49 It wasn't that he went up to Andy Reid and said, "Hey, give me the effing ball or keep me in the effing game," or something like that.
44:57 It wasn't just that he did that.
44:58 And it wasn't like he tapped him on the shoulder and said, "Hey."
45:01 He ran up, got up on him and bumped him.
45:04 He was out of control in that moment.
45:07 And I know that he made up for it on the field.
45:11 He played well and had a very good game.
45:12 I know that him and Andy Reid laughed about it afterwards.
45:15 It's easy to laugh, obviously, when your team wins.
45:18 But I think in that moment, he was definitely out of line.
45:22 That was beyond pale, in my opinion.
45:26 I agree.
45:27 All right, lots of great Raider quarterback talk today with the one and only, the great Matt Hladdyk from thespun.com.
45:33 Remember, I'm Hondo Carpenter from your Las Vegas Raiders Insider Podcast.
45:37 Listen, appreciate all of you following me on Instagram @hondosr, also on ex-formerly known as Twitter @hondocarpenter.
45:45 Thanks, Matt, for joining us today, bud.
45:47 Always a pleasure.
45:49 You're the best.
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