- Can slower consumption hit both consumer & allied companies in Q4?
- Defensive portfolio, a need in current times?
Watch Niraj Shah in conversation with Milind Karmarkar in conversation on 'Talking Point'. #NDTVProfit
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- Defensive portfolio, a need in current times?
Watch Niraj Shah in conversation with Milind Karmarkar in conversation on 'Talking Point'. #NDTVProfit
______________________________________________________
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TVTranscript
00:00 (upbeat music)
00:02 - Thanks for tuning into Talking Point.
00:12 Now, I'm your host, Neeraj Shah,
00:14 and the case for the chat today,
00:16 is the Indian consumer slowing down?
00:18 Has she already been buying less,
00:22 especially in the rural end of the market?
00:24 That is a key question that comes out
00:26 out of the commentary that we've heard
00:27 from some companies across the landscape.
00:31 The question, again, is that,
00:34 if it is a slower consumption growth,
00:36 can that slower consumption growth
00:38 hit consumption in allied companies
00:42 in quarter four as well?
00:44 That's the other key question that one needs to figure out.
00:46 And thirdly, is there a need for a defensive portfolio
00:50 at the current times?
00:51 Or not necessarily so, because you now heard
00:54 for at least three months, if not longer,
00:56 about how market make correction (speaks in foreign language)
00:59 So I think let's take all of those questions
01:01 to our guest today.
01:02 Mr. Milind Karmarkar of Dalal and Broach,
01:04 our PM has joined us right now on Talking Point.
01:06 Milind, so good having you.
01:07 - Thank you.
01:08 - Thanks for joining in today. - So good having you here.
01:09 Thank you.
01:10 - The pleasure is entirely ours.
01:12 I'm gonna start off with the big one.
01:13 Do you worry about this, that there is a correction imminent?
01:17 Let me sit on a bit of cash.
01:19 (speaks in foreign language)
01:20 Do you think about it?
01:22 - So, you know me, Neeraj,
01:23 and basically our focus is long-term.
01:26 - Yes. - And we don't,
01:28 frankly, we don't bother about short-term corrections.
01:30 So whether fourth quarter is going to be slow,
01:34 and because of that, I should move to cash.
01:36 No, that is not how we look at companies.
01:38 We look at companies with a view that in five years' time,
01:41 is it possible that the company will more than double?
01:44 I mean, its turnover and its profits.
01:46 So if the answer to that is yes,
01:48 we don't mind small short-term bips.
01:51 And in fact, we may add.
01:53 So we always have four to 5% cash.
01:56 And whenever these type of opportunities come in,
01:59 we would like to add to the portfolio.
02:01 So selling because there is a short-term issue
02:05 is not the strategy which we follow.
02:06 - Is there a short-term issue?
02:09 - So yes, because some of the FMCG companies
02:11 have shown kind of slower growth.
02:14 There are people who are saying that rural is slowing down.
02:18 But if you believe that India is,
02:20 and India is at the cusp of the next growth phase,
02:23 where if you see most of the neighboring countries,
02:27 whether it's Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, China,
02:30 or even for that matter, Japan in '60s,
02:33 and so on and so forth,
02:34 once a country crosses $2,000 per capita income,
02:37 the move from 2,000 to $6,200 or $6,000 is very rapid.
02:42 And if that is what we believe in,
02:46 and so if the, forget about tripling,
02:49 but if the per capita GDP is going to even double
02:52 in next five years, then we could,
02:55 so what we are, effectively what will happen is that
02:59 what the GDP is today, we will be consuming
03:01 in about five years' time.
03:03 So there is a massive opportunity.
03:05 So that is the reason we are not so worried about--
03:07 - Sorry, can you explain that point again?
03:10 - So consumption normally is around 50% of the GDP.
03:13 So if GDP doubles, whatever is today's GDP,
03:16 we will be consuming after five years.
03:18 So then the opportunity seems to be very large.
03:21 But if I look at the US,
03:23 there was a time from probably late '60s to early '70s
03:28 when we had most of the FMCG companies
03:30 who were the top-performing companies in the US,
03:34 but in 20 years, it was predominantly
03:37 the retailing companies
03:38 which were the top-performing companies,
03:40 because the baton of pricing power
03:42 moves from FMCG companies to retailing,
03:44 and I do see that happening in India as well.
03:47 So that is the reason probably FMCG companies
03:49 may not have that kind of a glamor which was there earlier,
03:53 but at the same time, consumption will do well.
03:55 That is not an issue.
03:56 - Got it.
03:57 Actually, and I'll come to FMCG as well,
03:59 but just rounding off this whole thing around the macro,
04:02 one of the most talked-about corporate comments
04:06 was the quote from Baba Kalyani
04:08 about how they see imminent slowdown
04:11 both in domestic and export markets, and that might hit.
04:14 Now, post that, we've spoken to a number
04:16 of corporates asking them about their views
04:19 on whether they see a slowdown around their business.
04:22 Anisha yesterday ruled it out for their company.
04:25 Cummins MD, both for global and local,
04:29 said that for their businesses,
04:30 it doesn't look very, very pronounced.
04:33 G Shipping today said that based on the shipping
04:36 of commodities that they are doing,
04:38 consumption of commodities is still strong.
04:40 I'm just trying to understand,
04:41 when you look at the landscape,
04:42 while you look at consumption very closely,
04:44 but if you look at the overall macro,
04:45 do you fear an imminent slowdown,
04:48 or do you reckon it could be transitory in nature?
04:50 - So our portfolio is predominantly focused on India,
04:54 so that is one thing, but yes,
04:56 when it comes to the global situation,
04:59 there could be a slowdown, but that might--
05:01 - Could it impact India?
05:02 - Sorry?
05:03 - Could it impact India?
05:03 - To some extent, so let me go back to 2003,
05:07 when we had, prior to that, we had the 9/11,
05:11 and a lot of issues there,
05:13 and I remember Reserve Bank's comments
05:16 on 1st of April for the next financial year,
05:19 and they said that though India
05:21 is one of the fastest growing economies,
05:24 there's a distinct slowdown which we can see globally.
05:27 It is possible that some of the large economies
05:31 in the West may go into a recession,
05:33 and there is a Iraq war, so despite of all this,
05:38 we do expect India to do well,
05:40 but we will be cautiously optimistic,
05:43 so that is what they said.
05:45 Come to 2024, I think the commentary
05:47 is going to be exactly the same.
05:49 - Okay, fine.
05:49 (laughs)
05:51 Okay, great.
05:52 Now, let's talk about, let's start off with consumption,
05:56 and we'll talk about it in both
05:57 before and after the break.
05:58 - Sure.
05:59 - We'll talk about something else as well.
06:00 - Yeah, yeah.
06:02 - And I'll come to your most decorated investment
06:06 in some time later, because it's not just
06:07 about one investment, right?
06:09 - Yeah, yeah.
06:09 - You're doing so well on the portfolio.
06:11 Is the portfolio bent towards taking advantage
06:16 of the K-shaped consumption piece that we're seeing
06:18 in India, and the upper crust thereof,
06:21 or not necessarily so?
06:22 - So let me just clarify here, that again,
06:25 first of all, I need to clarify that whatever
06:27 stock specific we discuss, there is a possibility
06:30 that we may own the stock, in fact,
06:32 it's more likely that we may own the stock,
06:34 and I may own the stock myself as well.
06:36 - Got it.
06:37 - So this is not a recommendation,
06:39 and it is only for discussion purposes.
06:41 - Right.
06:42 - Okay?
06:42 So coming to the way we look at consumption,
06:45 we look at all the sectors which benefit
06:48 out of rising per capita income.
06:50 So whether it's finance, whether it's also
06:53 banking and finance, whether it's insurance,
06:55 which has been lagging for the last four years,
06:57 but despite that, so whether it's finance,
06:59 whether it's insurance, whether it's healthcare,
07:01 including hospitals and pharmaceuticals,
07:04 and of course retail and FMCG,
07:06 we do believe that, and travel.
07:08 So we do believe that all these sectors
07:10 will benefit significantly.
07:12 So our sort of map of consumption is much larger
07:17 rather than only focusing on a certain aspect.
07:20 So we continue to believe that this sector as a whole,
07:24 there could be some which may not do so well,
07:28 and some which will do very well,
07:29 but this sector as a whole will deliver
07:32 very good returns, or in fact, I can say that
07:35 market beating returns in the next five years.
07:38 - What within this?
07:39 Some will do well, some will not.
07:40 Let's talk about the ones which you believe will do well.
07:42 - Okay, so what will do well?
07:44 I think finance, banking and finance should do well,
07:47 because whenever it's a consumption-driven growth,
07:51 there is always need for loan.
07:54 And because of that, we do expect that
07:56 retail-centric banks are likely to do very well.
08:00 In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if they deliver
08:03 18% year, or 18 to 20% year-on-year growth
08:06 for next five years.
08:07 Albert currently, I mean, if you see,
08:09 some of them have not done so well,
08:11 but at the same time, I do believe that
08:13 over a longer period, because banking and finance,
08:15 if economy does well, banking and finance
08:17 has to do well, period.
08:19 There is no two ways about it.
08:20 So that's why banking and finance is one.
08:22 Hospitals, I think I have talked about it earlier also,
08:25 that when I met Dr. Devi Shetty long back,
08:28 and I asked him, you know, what will drive
08:31 growth of hospitals, they had just listed that time.
08:33 So he had told me that it's predominantly
08:37 insurance penetration and rising per capita income.
08:41 Same thing, Dr. Reddy, of Dr. Reddy's lab,
08:44 told me way back in '95, when they were focusing
08:46 more on exports rather than domestic,
08:49 because he said that in India, people don't have money
08:52 to spend on medicines or hospitals,
08:54 and that is the reason why our focus is exports.
08:57 But as your per capita income goes up,
08:59 there is a very distinct possibility
09:02 that Indian pharma will do very well.
09:04 So I missed out on pharma some time back.
09:06 So pharma also constitutes a--
09:09 - Consumption.
09:10 - Consumption story for us.
09:12 - Got it, okay.
09:13 And so, okay, so there is pharmaceuticals,
09:16 there is BFSI, and lenders, private banks,
09:18 which might do well, private banks.
09:20 Not necessarily SOEs.
09:22 State-owned banks--
09:22 - So we have a couple of PSUs in our portfolio,
09:26 and again, there is reason for that,
09:29 like we have Jammu and Kashmir Bank in our portfolio.
09:32 So in August, when I had gone to Kashmir,
09:34 I saw that value had come back almost to normal.
09:38 And in most of the places, there was J&K Bank presence,
09:43 while other banks were not there.
09:46 It's not that over a period, other banks will not come in.
09:48 The management had changed completely.
09:51 And J&K Bank is likely to be the biggest beneficiary
09:56 of peace returning to the value,
09:59 where people will have more spending power.
10:01 So that's why J&K Bank and SBI,
10:04 because I think that even technologically,
10:06 they are doing something very nice, and they will benefit.
10:09 So these are the two PSU banks which we have in the portfolio.
10:12 The others are predominantly retail-centric banks.
10:16 - Got it.
10:17 Just one question on lenders, by the way,
10:18 before we move on.
10:19 Do you reckon that this valuation catch-up,
10:22 that PSUs, in the last five years,
10:24 SOE banks have done better
10:25 than the private banks as an index.
10:27 Do you think this valuation catch-up
10:28 still has room to go?
10:29 So my question, Raja, is that would a J&K or an SBI
10:32 or whatever else, will it benefit both from earnings growth
10:35 as well as further valuation re-rating as well?
10:39 Or is that story over?
10:40 - So I doubt whether there will be,
10:44 they will benefit from their income growth.
10:46 - Income growth, okay.
10:47 - They may not, because if you go to a PSU bank,
10:50 you realize that the attitude still needs to change.
10:53 So that is the issue.
10:54 - But there has been a valuation re-rating.
10:55 You don't think there is further re-rating possible?
10:56 - No, I don't think so.
10:58 - Okay, since you've invoked healthcare,
11:01 before the break, before we take a break,
11:03 let's just wrap up healthcare.
11:04 Now, are you, therefore, spend,
11:07 you mentioned the thesis around maybe pharma,
11:10 maybe hospitals, et cetera.
11:11 Are you present across that chain,
11:13 or are you present within specific parts of the chain?
11:15 Today is a pharma day, by the way.
11:17 All pharma stocks are rip and roaring.
11:19 - So we are present in pharma,
11:21 India-focused pharma companies,
11:24 though I must say that we are also focused,
11:26 we also have a company which is focusing
11:29 on cramps in our portfolio.
11:31 Hospitals, we do have,
11:32 but it's India-focused pharma companies
11:34 that we would like to bet on more
11:37 than pure export-driven companies.
11:40 We also have a health,
11:41 a sort of a, you know,
11:45 pharma distribution company in our portfolio,
11:48 but that is as a,
11:49 purely as a concept stock.
11:56 - Okay, interesting.
11:57 But so therefore--
11:58 - It's a kind of a startup.
11:59 It's listed, but it's kind of a startup.
12:01 - Okay, interesting.
12:02 Okay, but so also hospitals,
12:06 not necessarily diagnostics.
12:07 - We have a hospital, yes, hospital.
12:08 We are looking at couple of more hospitals as well.
12:10 - And diagnostic companies, no?
12:12 - Diagnostics we don't have.
12:13 - Okay, great.
12:15 Sorry, just one last question.
12:16 I mean, so hospitals, is there a question
12:19 about them becoming branded players
12:21 and therefore more pricing power,
12:23 or is it purely a question of earnings coming through
12:27 better over a period of time as spending power moves up?
12:29 - It's both.
12:29 So they are into an expansion mode.
12:30 So they are something similar to retail.
12:33 So they will have number of stores added
12:36 and same store sales growth.
12:37 So it will be a combination of two.
12:39 - So what is that current in the hospital space then?
12:41 Milind Karmarkar, tell us that.
12:43 (laughing)
12:45 - It's purely like a retail.
12:49 Yeah, got it.
12:51 - Pure consumption.
12:53 I understand you look at consumption
12:54 across a variety of buckets.
12:55 But now I'm drilling it down to pure consumption.
12:58 In pure consumption, is there merit in,
13:01 because you've mentioned this thing
13:02 about rising per capita.
13:05 Is there merit in betting heavily
13:08 on things which are focused on premiumization?
13:11 - So I was reading a book
13:15 which talked about conspicuous consumption
13:19 and inconspicuous consumption.
13:22 So they define conspicuous consumption as that consumption,
13:26 like when people's per capita income increases.
13:29 For them, going to a large format store
13:32 like a Zodio or Reliance Trends or others,
13:36 that itself is a big thing.
13:38 And that is the reason if your masses
13:41 or a large population is basically coming out
13:45 of this $2,500, those will be the companies
13:49 which will grow significantly.
13:51 In terms of conspicuous consumption
13:53 or inconspicuous consumption,
13:55 which is predominantly at the high end,
13:57 the consumption changes from showing off your consumption
14:02 to more towards like hiring nannies
14:07 or that type of a consumption.
14:10 So because of that, though people are saying
14:12 that high end consumption will do well,
14:14 I think it's still the base level consumption
14:17 which is likely to do very well.
14:20 But within particular consumption,
14:22 this was more about retail,
14:23 but within particular consumption,
14:25 I think, take for example, the larger companies
14:29 like Hindustan Lever or any of them,
14:32 they are fully penetrated.
14:34 So I remember, so where they were the premium,
14:36 I remember long back, say when we first recommended,
14:40 started recommending consumption,
14:42 we used to say that as a kid,
14:45 my mother used to use (speaking in foreign language)
14:49 which was used to clean our clothes
14:51 and to soak the clothes,
14:53 it was shavings of (speaking in foreign language)
14:56 there was nothing else available.
14:57 Then there was surf and other things.
14:59 Now, if you go to a small village also,
15:01 you will have surf, you will have shampoo sashes.
15:04 So it's fully penetrated.
15:06 So there is unlikely to be a volume growth there.
15:08 Whether there will be upscaling,
15:10 I think that will happen only when the per capita GDP
15:13 goes beyond $5,000.
15:14 So as of now, these type of companies
15:17 which are into personal consumption
15:19 or not exactly FMCG, personal care products,
15:23 let me put it that.
15:24 There the growth may not be significant,
15:26 but food is something which I see a big growth
15:29 which can come in.
15:31 - Okay, so if I look at Q3,
15:33 I mean, Staples largely, you know,
15:36 sustained to similar demand trends as was in quarter two.
15:38 Very few companies except for maybe a Darbar
15:41 or a Piddilite came out and gave out some commentary
15:45 around this thing as well.
15:46 So are, I mean, you look at recency,
15:49 you suffer, I suffer from recency bias.
15:51 I'm asking you, do you, I mean,
15:53 is are these pockets of isolation growth?
15:57 I mean, maybe building materials,
15:59 maybe specialized pharma or consumption products
16:03 like Darbar does or some other does?
16:05 And otherwise, does it look like a low volume growth
16:09 kind of a piece on the FMCG side?
16:11 - No, I think growth will improve.
16:13 - It will improve. - Growth will improve.
16:14 But it may not be immediately, it will take time.
16:18 And if your GDP is growing at say 6 1/2%
16:22 and you have a 5% inflation,
16:24 I think at best they will grow at about 12%,
16:26 not more than that, 12 to 13%.
16:29 So that is the issue which I have with these companies.
16:32 But food is something where direct benefit comes in
16:35 as your per capita income goes up.
16:37 So foods and clothes or foods and apparels,
16:42 that is where maximum growth will come in
16:44 rather than personal care.
16:46 - So I understand apparel,
16:48 there are two or three ways to play this as well.
16:50 There could be, I mean, I'm just using terms as an example,
16:53 but there could be an Irwin fashion
16:55 or a Birla fashion retail or a trend, et cetera,
16:58 maybe a page, whoever likes whatever, et cetera.
17:00 What about foods?
17:01 How do you play that within this Indian ecosystem?
17:03 - So you'll have to look at larger companies
17:05 like maybe a Nestle, maybe a Tata Consumer
17:10 or these type, though I don't have them in my portfolio,
17:12 but these are the companies which can deliver good.
17:16 And there may be many others.
17:17 So we have to look at it.
17:18 - How are you playing foods?
17:19 Forget the name, you may not need to give the name,
17:21 but give us an idea of how are you playing the food space,
17:24 if it's indeed a good thing.
17:25 - So we are playing food through one of the food companies.
17:28 We are looking at a food company as well.
17:31 So we will continue to do that.
17:32 - A food company meaning an FMCG company?
17:34 - Yes, but when you say fast moving consumer goods,
17:37 I'm talking about a company which focuses on food
17:40 and not on personal care.
17:42 - Got it, got it, got it, got it, okay.
17:45 The other aspect of consumption in two pockets,
17:48 one of them was QSRs.
17:50 Everybody believed that QSRs have growth
17:52 for the foreseeable future.
17:54 Somehow this quarter, the previous one was a rude roadblock,
17:58 if you will, despite ICC World Cup, so on and so forth.
18:01 What's happening here?
18:02 - So my view is that our focus is predominantly
18:06 on food tech company.
18:09 And because they encompass what is represented by QSR.
18:14 They're indifferent to what they service.
18:18 So that is why I think food tech companies
18:22 and food tech companies have started coming in profit
18:26 similar to policy bazaar and these type of companies
18:30 which have started coming in profit.
18:32 So cash profits I'm talking about.
18:34 So these type of companies probably are a good
18:38 sort of a representative of external food consumption.
18:43 - I have a question, Milan.
18:46 There was a CLSA note yesterday which said that,
18:48 I'm using this as an example,
18:49 that Zomato, they believe, could clock in profits.
18:52 So because they are looking at profits now,
18:54 they're changing the valuation methodology
18:56 to a P/E multiple.
18:57 And therefore, obviously, the target prices
18:59 could vary materially if indeed P/E becomes the metric,
19:03 the P/E could be high and the earnings
19:04 could be disproportionate.
19:06 How would you value food tech?
19:09 At Zomato or Srigi or whatever.
19:10 - We hold Zomato in our portfolio.
19:12 - Which is fine.
19:12 How do you value a company like this?
19:15 - No, I would value it at earnings after considering growth.
19:19 It's as simple as that.
19:20 - Simplify it for us.
19:21 I'm just trying to understand the valuation methodology.
19:25 - So I'll tell you.
19:25 So if a particular stock is quoting at 100 rupees,
19:29 and let's say their earning is only one rupee.
19:34 So that means you are looking at it 100 times.
19:37 But if you think that it will double
19:40 every two and a half years,
19:42 the earnings will double every two and a half years.
19:45 So rough growth of about 45% or 40%.
19:50 Then it is very clear that in about five years time,
19:54 your P/E will contract.
19:56 Either the P/E will contract because
19:59 the earnings will increase.
20:01 The second is that if they continue to grow at this level
20:04 and that point in time,
20:05 if you consider that this growth is likely to continue,
20:08 the P/E will not contract.
20:10 So in fact, that is how we first looked at Trent also.
20:14 So that is how we are looking at these companies,
20:16 which is, we always say value after considering growth.
20:18 - Okay.
20:20 I wanted to ask about jewelry,
20:22 but I'll skip that because I have to ask you
20:25 about retail and Trent in particular.
20:27 Now, not as a recommendation,
20:29 but you've been spot on, Milan, on Trent,
20:32 like no one else that I know.
20:34 My question is, how do you look at a business like that now
20:37 that is rallied so much,
20:39 there is a bit of growth behind it already,
20:41 the base is higher and the valuation leaves
20:44 hardly any room for execution risk?
20:47 - Okay.
20:48 So let me put it this way.
20:49 That when people say that they have grown so much,
20:52 or rather when my analyst comes to me and says that,
20:55 sir, (speaking in foreign language)
20:58 I said, that is not a answer.
21:00 For simple reason that when you're talking of
21:02 doubling your per capita income,
21:04 there is no chance that you can take this as a respite
21:08 for saying that they didn't grow
21:09 because there was a large base.
21:12 Of course they have a large base.
21:13 And because if you look globally,
21:15 a country having say $30,000 per capita income,
21:20 in that country, this will be nothing.
21:22 A billion dollar turnover is nothing.
21:25 So that is how one should look at.
21:27 So if you think that a Trent or any other company
21:31 is likely to grow at 40%,
21:33 you have to look at is there any scope?
21:35 So like I remember long back when I used to meet Mr. Tata,
21:38 I used to ask him, that time they had two stores
21:41 as to how large they will become.
21:43 And he used to say that,
21:44 Milind I can visualize 90 stores across India
21:47 in a span of 15 years.
21:48 And I used to say, wow, that's a 45 times growth.
21:52 Today they're adding 150 stores everywhere.
21:55 So in between when I had met them, I had asked them,
21:58 it was an analyst meet.
21:59 So I had asked them that is, what is your strategy?
22:02 So they said now increasing density is the strategy.
22:06 Because earlier if we thought that Bombay,
22:09 city like Bombay can have only two stores,
22:12 now it can come, we realize that it can comfortably
22:14 have 10 stores, so that's a five times.
22:17 So this is just an example.
22:18 I don't know how many stores they have in Bombay.
22:20 But so that is the kind of opportunity which is there
22:23 as your per capita income growth,
22:25 your consumption grows disproportionately.
22:28 Fantastic.
22:29 Milind so good having you.
22:30 Thanks for taking the time out and speaking to us.
22:31 Most welcome, most welcome Neeraj.
22:33 And viewers, thanks for tuning in
22:34 to this edition of The Talking Point.
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