NFL Draft Pick Predictions and Strategies for Beginners
Transcript
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00:03 Are the Bears gonna move back?
00:05 Who's somebody gonna go up to one?
00:07 And I think that that kinda changes where Harrison could go.
00:11 The favorites are the Cardinals right now who are in that fourth slot.
00:14 You got New England at four to one, the Bears at four to one if they move back.
00:17 Chargers are fifth, so 20 to one.
00:19 I don't think he gets the fifth, Davis, to be quite honest with you.
00:24 >> Well, what about that Bears number if they move both back and up, right?
00:30 So there is a permutation of things they could do, and
00:33 it would depend on when they make this trade.
00:35 But they could move back from one, they could do it,
00:38 I mean, they could move back from one to two.
00:40 Maybe the commanders say, Drake May, we like him, but we don't love him.
00:43 We love Caleb Williams, so let's move from two to one.
00:46 Maybe the Patriots say, you know what, we are re-creating the franchise.
00:51 We are starting over, we got a new coach.
00:53 We don't need to run back Bailey Zappi or Matt Jones.
00:56 Let's go and get our guy.
00:57 I think there are a lot of different ways.
00:59 So I don't hate that Bears number.
01:01 What I would say just in general, a smart thing to be doing with
01:06 your NFL draft portfolio is earlier,
01:11 it's definitely better to just be taking long shots.
01:14 Build a portfolio of 20 to ones, 30 to ones, 40 to ones.
01:17 Because if a trade happens, the odds are gonna change massively.
01:21 You're gonna be able to hedge yourself out.
01:23 And just my experience in these markets is they are so
01:26 illiquid that it does not take much to swing these numbers absolutely massively.
01:31 So right now, maybe the Jets on Ben MGM are 75 to 1 to take Marvin Harrison.
01:37 But if Adam Schefter tweets like, Marvin Harrison Jr.
01:40 is not an option for the Arizona Cardinals at four.
01:43 They wanna take a tackle to protect their franchise quarterback or
01:46 whatever, those odds are gonna shift dramatically.
01:48 So I mean, none of these numbers on Harrison Jr.
01:52 look great to me right now.
01:54 I mean, the Cardinals, I think those odds are about right.
01:57 But I would not tell you you're wrong for
01:59 taking a stab on either of those deeper sides.
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