NFL Draft Pick Predictions and Strategies for Beginners

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00:03 Are the Bears gonna move back?

00:05 Who's somebody gonna go up to one?

00:07 And I think that that kinda changes where Harrison could go.

00:11 The favorites are the Cardinals right now who are in that fourth slot.

00:14 You got New England at four to one, the Bears at four to one if they move back.

00:17 Chargers are fifth, so 20 to one.

00:19 I don't think he gets the fifth, Davis, to be quite honest with you.

00:24 >> Well, what about that Bears number if they move both back and up, right?

00:30 So there is a permutation of things they could do, and

00:33 it would depend on when they make this trade.

00:35 But they could move back from one, they could do it,

00:38 I mean, they could move back from one to two.

00:40 Maybe the commanders say, Drake May, we like him, but we don't love him.

00:43 We love Caleb Williams, so let's move from two to one.

00:46 Maybe the Patriots say, you know what, we are re-creating the franchise.

00:51 We are starting over, we got a new coach.

00:53 We don't need to run back Bailey Zappi or Matt Jones.

00:56 Let's go and get our guy.

00:57 I think there are a lot of different ways.

00:59 So I don't hate that Bears number.

01:01 What I would say just in general, a smart thing to be doing with

01:06 your NFL draft portfolio is earlier,

01:11 it's definitely better to just be taking long shots.

01:14 Build a portfolio of 20 to ones, 30 to ones, 40 to ones.

01:17 Because if a trade happens, the odds are gonna change massively.

01:21 You're gonna be able to hedge yourself out.

01:23 And just my experience in these markets is they are so

01:26 illiquid that it does not take much to swing these numbers absolutely massively.

01:31 So right now, maybe the Jets on Ben MGM are 75 to 1 to take Marvin Harrison.

01:37 But if Adam Schefter tweets like, Marvin Harrison Jr.

01:40 is not an option for the Arizona Cardinals at four.

01:43 They wanna take a tackle to protect their franchise quarterback or

01:46 whatever, those odds are gonna shift dramatically.

01:48 So I mean, none of these numbers on Harrison Jr.

01:52 look great to me right now.

01:54 I mean, the Cardinals, I think those odds are about right.

01:57 But I would not tell you you're wrong for

01:59 taking a stab on either of those deeper sides.

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