#ABBIndia gains 9% on the back of strong results as the company continues to see strong order momentum,
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit.
Guest List:
Saurabh Jain, Equity Head, Research, SMC Global Securities
Ajit Mishra, SVP-Research Religare Broking
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Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit.
Guest List:
Saurabh Jain, Equity Head, Research, SMC Global Securities
Ajit Mishra, SVP-Research Religare Broking
______________________________________________________
For more videos subscribe to our channel: https://www.youtube.com/@NDTVProfitIndia
Visit NDTV Profit for more news: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/
Don't enter the stock market unaware. Read all Research Reports here: https://www.ndtvprofit.com/research-reports
Follow NDTV Profit here
Twitter: https://twitter.com/NDTVProfitIndia , https://twitter.com/NDTVProfit
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ndtvprofit
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TVTranscript
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01:49 Good morning, you're tuned into Ask Profit.
01:51 I'm Smriti Chaudhary and for the next 30 minutes,
01:54 I'll take all your stock related questions.
01:56 To write to us, you can either message us on the WhatsApp number
01:59 that will be on your screen or you can write to us on any of our social media channels.
02:04 I'll also be tracking the YouTube live chat, so
02:07 you can write your questions there as well.
02:09 Now, before we jump into the questions, let me introduce you to the guests for
02:13 today, we have Saurabh Jain of SMC Global and
02:16 Ajit Mishra will be joining us soon of Religare Broking.
02:20 Welcome Saurabh and Ajit will be joining us soon as well.
02:24 Now before we talk about the focus and the questions,
02:27 let's take a quick check on the markets and where they're at.
02:30 If you look at the Nifty 50, it's pretty much flat right now.
02:33 Benchmarks have been flat for a bit now, but
02:37 it's more or less in the red territory.
02:40 That's currently where we're at.
02:42 If you look at the contributors of Nifty 50,
02:46 you have the likes of Power Grid, BPCL, Infi that are the biggest laggards today.
02:52 However, Tata Steel, JSW, Hindalcore, all up and
02:57 which is why the Nifty Metal Index is the biggest gainer in trade today.
03:02 Now this comes on the back of China cutting rates to
03:08 kind of push the demand for the property sector.
03:13 There have been rate cuts.
03:14 So I think there's some sentiment of demand kind of increasing going ahead for
03:20 metals, which is why we're seeing an uptick.
03:23 Hindalco is especially up because Novelist has a file for
03:26 a public offering in US, so that's why it's up about 1.7% in trade.
03:31 If you look at the broader markets, you have the mid-cap index that's also in red
03:38 today, down about two-tenths of a percent.
03:40 However, the Nifty small cap is considerably in the green,
03:44 about 0.14% up or thereabouts.
03:48 Let's also look at what's the biggest loser among sectors in trade,
03:54 and that's got to be the Nifty ID Index,
04:00 which is down about 0.8% in trade today.
04:05 There's also Nifty Pharma is in the red.
04:09 Nifty Media is the biggest loser.
04:11 Apologies, it's down more than 2% in trade.
04:14 That's on the back of Z, dragging today.
04:17 If we can pull up the chart and see how much Z has fallen.
04:22 As of now, it's down about 10.5%.
04:25 Now, this is also on the back of Z kind of clarifying that there are no such
04:32 negotiations going on with Sony and there are also reports suggesting some
04:37 investigation from SEBI and some accounting discrepancies are there.
04:44 But the focus for today is ABB India.
04:47 Now, it came out with its results yesterday.
04:50 If you can pull up the chart for ABB India, it was up about,
04:54 yeah, it's up about 9% as we speak.
04:58 And just to take you through where the earnings are for the fourth quarter,
05:05 they were revenue grew about 13% to 2,757 crore.
05:11 EBITDA expanded to 14% to 417 crore.
05:16 Margin expanded as well to 15.13%.
05:21 Not a big expansion there.
05:23 It was 15% in the last year.
05:25 Net profit also grew about 11% to 339 crore.
05:30 Now, if you look at the order book of the company as well,
05:32 there is a considerable momentum that continues in terms of large orders.
05:37 The total order book grew 35% and for the fourth quarter,
05:41 the just fourth quarter orders were over 3,100 crores.
05:47 That's where we are at for ABB India.
05:50 Now, Saurabh, I'd like to understand from you, we've seen quarter four results.
05:54 We're seeing great momentum in terms of the order book as well.
05:58 From a longer term perspective, what would you suggest somebody holding an ABB
06:03 and what are your key takeaways from the results as well?
06:08 Hi, good morning.
06:09 See, capital good industry is surely on an uptick.
06:12 I mean, see the companies, they are having a good intake of order book
06:16 and the execution is doing even faster.
06:18 Most of the corporates are now going for expansion
06:22 and here in the picture comes ABB.
06:25 It's a kind of a portfolio stock.
06:27 The margin expansion is happening, double digit kind of revenue growth is there.
06:30 In fact, I think moving next year, I think things will move much faster.
06:34 So I think one who has it should keep it in the portfolio.
06:39 Okay, understood.
06:40 Ajit has also joined us.
06:42 Good morning, Ajit.
06:43 Now, before I jump into the questions,
06:45 I'd like to understand some key levels for the Nifty 50.
06:49 We're seeing records high in the last two days.
06:53 It's crossed the 2,200 levels, but it's slightly below that today.
06:58 So what are the key levels that you should watch out for?
07:02 Good morning.
07:03 So broadly, yes, we have reclaimed the record highs.
07:09 We've surpassed the hurdle at 2,250.
07:13 But now we feel that the way we are inching higher,
07:17 as of now, it lacks decisiveness.
07:19 Means we need a strong 1%, 2% kind of a move
07:25 to end this consolidation and inch toward the newer highs.
07:29 But nevertheless, the good part is that banking is participating.
07:32 So as long as we are seeing this participation strengthening
07:37 from the banking space, we expect this upward momentum to continue.
07:43 And 22,500 is what we are running in the near future.
07:46 And now 22, 100, 22,000 zone is the area of support.
07:52 So it's a buy and dip market.
07:54 But since the momentum is missing,
07:56 one should be selective in the buying
08:00 and prefer the sectors and stocks which are showing resilience
08:03 during the down days.
08:05 OK, all right.
08:06 Now on that note, the first question is on a bank as well.
08:10 We're talking about HDFC Bank.
08:12 This one's from K.N. Raju.
08:14 They want to know if they should invest at current levels
08:18 for HDFC Bank.
08:19 It's down about half a percent in trade today.
08:22 We've seen some downturn in the stock for HDFC Bank.
08:25 Sort of from a long-term perspective,
08:27 would you suggest buying at these levels?
08:30 See, if you look at the valuation,
08:32 I think it looks very interesting.
08:34 But it's kind of a contrarian bet as of now.
08:37 I think the company will take approximately six, nine months
08:40 to, you know, because of that merger,
08:44 to shed high cost of deposit and to bring deposits,
08:48 bring CASA back to the level it enjoys before merger.
08:52 And the management has also categorically said
08:55 that they will go slow on the advance side of the book.
08:58 So I think as of now, it is a contrarian kind of a call.
09:01 If you have a horizon of more than two, three years,
09:03 then you can chip in in a staggered manner
09:05 to buy in, you know, thin quantities.
09:07 Otherwise, wait for six, nine months.
09:09 And then when the things will improve,
09:12 the balance sheet will improve, the CASA will improve,
09:14 and things will be better, then you also can enter.
09:17 - Okay, Ajit, do tell us your levels
09:21 based on the charts for HDFC Banks as well.
09:23 Would you suggest the same thing
09:24 that if somebody wants to enter the stock,
09:27 they should wait for six to nine months?
09:28 Because we have a lot of questions around HDFC Bank.
09:31 - You know, honestly, since 2019,
09:36 if you see that we are still around those levels,
09:39 means, yes, there was a bit of an improvement,
09:41 but, you know, we are somewhere around
09:45 a 13-ended, 14-ended kind of a band earlier also,
09:48 and now we are inching or, you know,
09:50 trading closer to that mark.
09:52 So, yes, there's an underperformance,
09:54 which is clearly visible from the price performance also.
09:58 And short-term, what I believe that
10:00 is going to be more of like, you know,
10:03 this underperformance might continue.
10:05 And I think that from six to nine month
10:09 or a year time horizon, ICICI and XS,
10:12 they are comparatively better structures.
10:14 So if you are looking for less than a year time horizon,
10:17 then one can look at the other alternatives.
10:20 And if the time horizon is already mentioned
10:23 is more than two, three years,
10:24 then definitely one can look at HDFC for accumulation.
10:28 - Could you give us the levels as well for XS?
10:31 - Yeah, so certainly, so XS and ICICI,
10:36 I feel that they are among the top performers
10:38 within the private banking space.
10:40 They are trading pretty good at record highs.
10:42 Now we have very strong base around 950 to 1000
10:45 when it comes to the XS and upside is open.
10:47 Means as for the previous consolidation,
10:50 I won't be surprised if we test 1200 plus zone
10:53 by the end of this year and maybe higher.
10:55 And for ICICI also, we are seeing a similar tone.
10:58 In fact, it's comparatively better than XS.
11:01 And 1300, 12 to 13 and something that ICICI
11:06 may also test in next six to nine months.
11:09 - All right, understood.
11:10 Next up, we have a question from Mohit from Ludhiana.
11:13 He's talking about Coal India.
11:15 He's already bought the stock at 152 levels.
11:18 It's considerably higher from that point,
11:21 but post its earnings,
11:22 we've seen the stock declining.
11:25 There's some contraction in the e-auction premiums,
11:29 but from a longer term perspective,
11:30 Mohit, time horizon is about two years.
11:34 Would you suggest holding onto this?
11:36 And what kind of upside do you see in the stock as well?
11:39 - I think it belongs to metal and mining.
11:43 And here the prices do make a very meaningful impact
11:47 on the operating margins and the profitability.
11:51 The stock has already gained multi-fold.
11:53 I mean, from 100 odd level to 100 odd level,
11:55 now it has been above 400.
11:57 I think it is a time to take profits from the table.
12:00 Since the company has categorically said
12:02 that the e-auction prices have dropped down significantly,
12:05 in my opinion, I think the stock can pull down further.
12:09 So better take profits from the table
12:11 and invest in the sector like, we like IT sector.
12:15 And we think it can be a dark horse for the year.
12:18 And even the banking stocks,
12:19 I think he can shift money towards banking and IT.
12:23 - Understood.
12:25 Next up, we're talking about Tata Tele Services.
12:28 This one's from Sanjit,
12:29 and he bought the stock at 2.5.
12:33 The stock is currently hovering around 90 rupees.
12:37 Now, Ajit, would you suggest booking profits
12:40 and get out of the stock,
12:42 or should you wait, or there is more upside to this one?
12:46 - So, see the time horizon and the kind of investment
12:52 means he is holding,
12:54 this stock made a record low around 2020,
12:57 and it's still holding.
12:59 If he has made investment based on the fundamentals,
13:02 means from the different perspective,
13:04 then it's a different story.
13:05 But I feel if you made,
13:08 this is a short term investment opportunity
13:11 and you have this windfall gains,
13:13 definitely you should book profit
13:14 and diversify your position to the other counters.
13:18 So, in case if you want to stick
13:21 with some of these prominent names,
13:23 especially in the market like this,
13:24 we have been trading at record highs,
13:26 Bharti Airtel, Ultra Tech, ICICI,
13:30 like some of these names that we were discussing,
13:32 one can invest in those names after taking profit.
13:35 - Okay, understood.
13:37 Next up, we have a question from Tarun Agarwal,
13:40 and he's talking about JSW Infra and Vedanta.
13:43 Is it a buy at current levels is the question.
13:46 They haven't mentioned if this is for the longer term
13:48 or the shorter term,
13:49 but Saurabh, considering what we're seeing in metals today,
13:54 from a longer term perspective,
13:56 should you get into the stock?
13:57 - It's not the best one among the metal names.
14:02 I think it is better to avoid
14:05 because of the huge pile on the balance sheet
14:08 and the rating agencies have also been closely
14:12 watching the numbers.
14:14 Regarding the JSW Infra,
14:15 I think it can be a good trade,
14:19 I think buying a standard.
14:21 - And from a shorter term perspective, Ajit,
14:23 JSW and Vedanta, good time to enter the stock?
14:25 - So, in fact, I'm very closely eyeing the Vedanta
14:29 'cause if you have noticed that other metal counters,
14:32 they have done exceptionally well in the recent run,
14:36 but Vedanta is still hovering in a very narrow range
14:40 around the previous swing high.
14:41 So yes, there's a possibility that in short term,
14:43 we may see strong swing once it crosses 285.
14:47 So the risk reward is favorable
14:49 'cause we have a very strong support now at 235.
14:52 So once we cross 285 level,
14:55 then 300, 310 should be the probable target.
14:58 So it's to stop at 265,
15:00 definitely one can look at Vedanta for accumulation.
15:04 And JSW Infra also,
15:06 the stock has again reached clear to its record highs.
15:10 So we may see some consolidation.
15:11 So if the view is short term,
15:13 one can wait and let the stock witness a dip towards 230
15:17 for fresh entry and your stop should be at 220 in that case
15:21 with 245 to 250 being the positional target.
15:23 - All right, fair point.
15:24 Those are the targets for JSW Infra and Vedanta.
15:27 Next up, we're talking about Mishtan Food.
15:31 This one's from Muralidharan
15:33 and they bought the stock at 12 rupees a share.
15:36 It's about 22 rupees as of now.
15:39 Saurabh, is this part of your coverage?
15:42 Is there a target on this one?
15:43 - Strictly sorry, don't cover this.
15:47 - Okay, we'll take this to Ajit then.
15:50 Ajit, any specific targets on Mishtan Foods?
15:53 - So see, the stock is in BSE
15:57 and we actively don't track BSE names.
16:00 So I'm unable to give the target right away.
16:03 - Okay, fair point.
16:05 We'll slip into a short break now,
16:07 but after the break, we'll take a lot more questions.
16:12 So stay tuned.
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18:36 - Welcome back, you're watching Ask Profit.
18:43 Let's quickly dive into the questions.
18:45 The next one is coming from Sagar,
18:47 that he's talking about Alembic Pharma.
18:50 He holds a significant quantity from,
18:52 he says less than 500 levels.
18:54 The stock has doubled from that.
18:57 Sort of from a longer term perspective,
18:59 should you book some profits
19:00 and maybe keep holding onto the original quantity
19:05 or should you keep holding onto it
19:08 because there's more upside left?
19:09 What's the long-term perspective on this one?
19:12 And talk to us a little bit about pharma
19:14 on the whole as a pack as well.
19:16 - See, if you talk about the pharma as a whole,
19:19 I think the pressures which were there
19:21 in the US and Europe markets,
19:22 many of the companies are feeling
19:24 that they are abating somewhat.
19:25 And many of the Indian pharmaceutical companies
19:27 are venturing into the newer verticals.
19:30 If you look at the APL numbers also,
19:32 the last quarter's numbers were very interesting.
19:34 I mean, they saw double-digit kind of a growth.
19:36 There was an improvement in the margins also.
19:38 The companies also venturing into the therapeutic areas,
19:42 if I remember correctly.
19:43 And the management is quite confident
19:45 for the good growth going forward.
19:48 So I think we have a very constructive view,
19:50 especially on the APL, Alembic Pharma, Citical.
19:53 And we believe that it can be a very good bet
19:56 if one holds for another one year or two year.
19:59 So I think 20, 30% kind of a return
20:01 one can rotate easily in this year.
20:03 So it's a hold from.
20:05 - Ajit, is that what you reckon as well?
20:08 This has been a multi-bagger in the last one year.
20:10 Is there more steam left from a short to medium term?
20:13 - The short to medium term,
20:16 we might see a beater after this phenomenal up move,
20:19 'cause the stock has reclaimed its record highs now
20:22 after almost two years, three years of down move,
20:29 post this decline in 2020.
20:31 And usually we see a beater
20:33 once the stock reclaims their record highs
20:36 and form a fresh base.
20:39 So if the view is short term,
20:41 I would recommend a bunch of book profit
20:43 around the current levels
20:45 and let the stock form some base around the record highs
20:49 before the next up move.
20:51 And if the time horizon is long term,
20:53 definitely you should maintain a trailing stop at 1000,
20:57 'cause below that, again,
20:58 the bias would turn sideways to negative.
21:01 So in either of the case,
21:02 maintain strict stock losses
21:05 or book at least partial profit
21:07 if you have invested at the bottom.
21:09 - All right, fair point.
21:10 Next up, we are talking about MM forgings.
21:13 This one's from Manish Patwari.
21:15 He bought the stock six months ago above 1000 levels,
21:19 1088 to be precise.
21:21 The stock is below that.
21:23 Ajit, what kind of levels should you watch out in this one?
21:27 - See, MM forging is basically holding in this band,
21:34 900, 1050 on the higher side to 850 in the lower side.
21:40 So we are almost there,
21:42 means we are trading toward the upper band.
21:45 Good part is that we have seen an uptick in volume
21:48 with the rise in prices.
21:50 So there could be an attempt of a breakout this time.
21:53 So he may continue to hold and now 930,
21:57 since it's a high beta counter, should be the stock.
21:59 And once it crosses 1050,
22:01 then maybe a newer trajectory closer to around,
22:05 let's say 1150 to 1200 is something that he can wait for.
22:09 - All right, fair point.
22:10 Next up, we have a question from Pranay Mitra.
22:13 And now we're talking about some PSU stocks
22:16 like RVNN and IRFC for the longer term perspective.
22:21 We've already seen a run up in these stocks,
22:23 but it seems like a lot of viewers
22:27 now want to get into the stock.
22:29 Would you suggest getting at these levels
22:30 or do you think the valuations are expensive at this point?
22:34 - See, while the companies are good,
22:36 they have good order group,
22:37 but at these valuations,
22:38 it's simply no for investing in these companies.
22:43 I mean, they can correct very steeply.
22:48 I mean, they still have to prove their matter.
22:50 And many of the businesses are in the B2B business
22:52 in which margin expansion is very,
22:55 margin expansion would be very big here for them.
22:59 I think, so we are not recommending these stocks.
23:02 - All right, just taking this forward,
23:04 you have another question from Nilu Das from Kolkata.
23:07 And he wants to know if they want to get
23:09 into railway stocks,
23:09 is there anything within the sector
23:12 that you would suggest?
23:13 - I think we can't suggest any of these stocks
23:18 because many of the companies are good,
23:19 but the valuations are extremely high.
23:22 - So are you saying is it too late
23:24 to get into railway stocks?
23:25 - Of course, of course.
23:26 In my opinion, I think IT sector is a good sector
23:29 which one can look upon.
23:30 I think all the three biggies, Infosys, TZ, SHC,
23:34 one can look for the long term.
23:35 - All right, fair point.
23:36 Next up, we are talking about LIC.
23:39 Now, this one's from Muralitharan as well.
23:43 And LIC is on the minds of a lot of viewers.
23:47 We've seen the levels cross above 100,000, sorry.
23:52 And now viewers are asking about should they wait
23:56 to sell the stock till it crosses 2000 levels?
23:59 Do you see that trajectory the longer term, Saurabh?
24:03 I'll come to you, Ajit, on this one as well.
24:06 - I think it is very difficult to take up all of it.
24:08 It can reach 2000 levels or not
24:10 because valuations are also high.
24:11 See, LIC have made good money
24:13 because of the huge run up in the market.
24:15 That is what the prices are discounting.
24:17 If any kind of corrections do come to the market,
24:20 we'll see the same kind of a correction
24:21 in the LIC prices too.
24:23 So on the valuation front, I think it's priced to perfection.
24:26 So it's very difficult to take up all that.
24:29 - All right, fair point.
24:30 Ajit, on LIC, what are the charts showing?
24:32 - So, you know, it took almost more than one and a half years
24:39 to reclaim its LPO levels.
24:41 And now we are seeing a bit of a beat up.
24:43 So I feel, you know, instead of like focusing on,
24:48 you know, 2000 maybe high levels,
24:50 one should respect that the stock has doubled
24:55 in less than six months.
24:56 So now if you see that from the shorter time frame
25:01 to medium term time frame,
25:03 it would be healthy if we managed to hold these levels,
25:05 means 900 zone is something
25:07 that one should keep a close eye on.
25:09 'Cause below that, again, the turn, you know,
25:12 I'd might turn, you know, against LIC
25:15 and we may again see some profit taking coming in.
25:18 So if you have invested, if you've already invested,
25:21 then, you know, keep a close watch on how the,
25:26 you know, earnings and the other parameters are panning out.
25:29 But at the same time, if it's less than 900,
25:32 then definitely you should take a call
25:35 whether you wish to invest it for next two, three years
25:38 or not.
25:39 - All right, fair point.
25:40 Next up, we have a question from Shankar from Tuticorin
25:43 and they're talking about Sun TV.
25:44 They bought the shares at 445 levels.
25:47 It's a considerably higher.
25:48 Ajit, good time to book profits or should you hold onto it?
25:52 - It's on TV, I think it's a normal replacement
25:55 that we are seeing in the stock
25:56 and it has already corrected from 720 zone to 620 area now.
26:01 So I feel that we are going to the immediate bottom,
26:05 though it may spend some time around the current levels,
26:09 you know, forming a fresh base, but downside seems capped.
26:14 So yes, you can continue to hold longs
26:16 and as a trading position, 590 should be your stock.
26:20 And if you wish to add to your longs,
26:22 you can do that once it crosses 640,
26:25 'cause above that, we may see fresh momentum in the stock,
26:28 which could help the stock to reclaim
26:30 its previous swing high at 750 area.
26:33 - All right, all right.
26:35 Next up, we're talking about Geo Finance
26:37 and this one's from Manish
26:39 and they've bought the shares at 265 levels.
26:42 Saurabh, from a longer term perspective,
26:44 how does Geo Finance look?
26:46 We've seen a good amount of traction in the sector.
26:49 - See, from the long-term perspective,
26:52 I think it comes from the reliance camp
26:55 and you know, the company has huge plans
26:57 and I don't think so that they would take much time,
27:00 especially after the Paytm problem
27:03 that we have just seen.
27:05 So I think from the long-term perspective,
27:07 Geo Finance makes sense.
27:08 - All right, fair point.
27:10 We're getting a lot of questions on HDFC Bank.
27:12 So viewers, we've already spoken about HDFC Bank.
27:16 So do write to us about your other stocks as well.
27:21 Next up, we have a question on BEPL,
27:25 which is Bhansali Engineering and Polymers.
27:27 This one's from, I'm not sure if they've given their name.
27:31 Prasad, this one's coming from Prasad
27:33 and I'm not sure if they've bought into the shares,
27:36 but the stock is down about 1% in trade today.
27:40 Would you suggest buying into this one, Ajit,
27:43 now that we're seeing a little bit of a downtick
27:44 in the stock?
27:45 - See, the stock has done well,
27:48 means from 48 to 120 mark in last almost eight, 10 months.
27:53 And it has retested its record high zone.
27:59 So basically around that area,
28:01 we had multiple attempts in the past also,
28:03 which it couldn't surpass and go.
28:06 So this retracement with low volume
28:08 is definitely a positive thing.
28:11 But for fresh buying, I would rather wait
28:13 for the confirmation that the trend is still positive.
28:16 So a breakout above 105, then one can make it,
28:19 for the fresh long position with 120, 125
28:25 being the target area.
28:26 And your stock should be at 95 in that case.
28:29 - Fair point.
28:30 Quick last question, Saurabh.
28:32 This one's from Raghuram Patro
28:34 and they're talking about Orient Green
28:35 that they bought at 22 and Adani Power
28:37 that they bought at 300 levels.
28:40 Talk to us a little bit about their long-term perspective
28:42 and should you continue holding on to both of these two?
28:46 - Our sector, overall outlook looks quite interesting.
28:49 I mean, last year we saw 10, 12% kind of volume growth.
28:52 Previous year also, we saw that kind of a growth.
28:56 And this year also, I think the government focus
28:58 and the way the companies are planning
29:01 to enhance their capacities,
29:03 I think it's paying its dividend.
29:05 Among the power sector, we are quite focused
29:08 on the companies like NTPC, NHPC, ASW.
29:12 We find those stocks are quite interesting.
29:16 - So NTPC is one of the picks.
29:18 We had a question on NTPC as well,
29:20 but don't worry, we'll take it tomorrow.
29:23 Unfortunately, we're completely out of time today.
29:25 Thank you so much, Saurabh and Ajit for joining in
29:28 and for answering so many questions for us.
29:30 And viewers, stay tuned, lots more coming up on NDTV Profit.
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