• 10 months ago
#UBS' upgrade of #TCS to a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 4,700 has led the stock to become the second best performer on the #NIfty50 so far, What does it mean for shareholders?


Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive


Guest List:
Astha Jain, Senior Research Analyst, Hem Securities
Osho Krishan,Sr. Research Analyst-Tech & Der, Angel One
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01:39 - Good morning and thanks so much for joining in.
01:52 You're watching Ask Profit.
01:53 My name is Alex Matthew, with me is Smriti Chaudhary,
01:56 and we'll take you through the next half an hour of trade.
01:59 Now, this show is geared towards getting you answers
02:01 to all of your stock-related questions.
02:02 So if you've got them for us,
02:03 then send them to us on the WhatsApp number
02:05 that is on your screen right now,
02:07 or in fact, on any one of the social media platforms
02:11 that you might be tuned in on.
02:13 Let's very quickly take you through
02:14 how the markets are faring right now.
02:16 In fact, it's a very narrow range
02:17 for the benchmark Nifty 50 in trade today,
02:19 and that consolidation from yesterday's session
02:22 continues today as well.
02:23 You have the Nifty 50,
02:24 which is trading near the high point of the day,
02:27 but still with gains of only about 2/10 of a percent or so.
02:30 Remember, trade across markets,
02:33 risk assets around the world
02:35 are seeing a little bit of muted action all through the week,
02:39 and that starts, of course, from the U.S. markets.
02:41 In Asia as well, you're seeing a little bit of muted action.
02:45 For our markets, you have the broader markets
02:47 that are doing slightly better,
02:49 and you have, in fact, the mid-cap 150 index
02:51 that's gaining about a third of a percent at this juncture,
02:54 and you have the small-cap index,
02:55 which is trading with gains of about half a percent.
02:58 I'm talking about the small-cap 250 index.
03:01 And so, therefore, I would think that the market breadth
03:03 is tilted just a tad bit in favor of the advances.
03:08 Well, it's more or less even Stevens at this juncture.
03:10 It was, in fact, earlier in the session,
03:12 tilted towards the advances.
03:14 In terms of some of the sectors
03:16 that you should be watching out for in trade today,
03:19 let's pull up that screen as well.
03:20 And in fact, you've got most sectors
03:23 that are in the green today,
03:24 and this is not what was the case yesterday.
03:27 In fact, the biggest gainer today is the Realty Index,
03:29 but it's up only about nine-tenths of a percent or so,
03:33 and Consumer Durables and IT also leading gains.
03:36 Of course, we're talking about IT at the start today
03:39 in one particular counter, Data Consultancy Services,
03:42 and Smriti is telling you why that is.
03:45 Well, we're seeing TCS up in trade today.
03:49 It was the biggest gainer on the Nifty 50 a while ago,
03:52 but now it has slid down to the second position
03:55 while HTC Bank has taken over.
03:58 Now, if you look at the UBS note,
04:00 there's an upgrade on that note,
04:01 and they have revised their rating from neutral to buy,
04:05 and they've given a price target of 4,700 from 4,050 earlier.
04:10 Now, their reasoning for that is that
04:13 they expect TCS to outperform its peers,
04:16 that is other Infosys, Wipro, Tech Mahindra, and so on.
04:19 And this will be because of their revenue growth in FY25.
04:24 Now, UBS also says that this is not completely priced in.
04:29 So the impact of the large deal ramp up
04:33 and the scope of margin improvement,
04:35 we're yet to see that happen, and that's not priced in yet,
04:40 so which is why the target price
04:42 is slightly higher than before.
04:45 Now, on that note, let me introduce you
04:48 to the guests for today.
04:49 We have with us Aastha Jain of HEM Securities
04:52 and Osho Krishnan of Angel One joining in.
04:55 Welcome to both of you, and thanks for joining in.
04:58 Now--
05:01 - Very good morning.
05:01 - Good morning.
05:02 Aastha, I'll come to you first.
05:04 On TCS, we're seeing a big upgrade by UBS,
05:07 and we've seen some weakness in ITPAC as a whole,
05:11 but now maybe the tide has turned
05:14 and TCS is set to outperform others.
05:17 Do you also believe that's the case?
05:21 - Hi, good morning to all of you.
05:24 So yes, if we talk about the TCS,
05:26 the results which came out, they were good.
05:29 Basically, we have seen that the company
05:32 has shown strong performance,
05:33 and their book-to-bill ratio is standing at 1.1.
05:37 That is sounding to be good,
05:38 and why I'm talking positive on the book-to-bill ratio,
05:40 because that is the major criteria
05:43 for looking of the future performance.
05:45 So yes, the deal wins were not very high,
05:48 but still they are maintaining book-to-bill ratio 1.1,
05:51 and yes, we have seen some sort of moderation
05:54 in the client discretionary spending,
05:57 so that is impacting the performance.
05:59 But I think going ahead,
06:00 the way we are seeing the US economy
06:02 is going on right now also,
06:04 I think that will not be a major case,
06:07 or that cannot be a negatively impact
06:10 the company's financial performance going ahead.
06:12 This is what we believe.
06:13 So yes, even we are positive about this company,
06:16 although our price target is not that high.
06:19 At the initial levels,
06:20 we are keeping the price target of around 4200
06:22 for this counter.
06:23 So yes, even we are positive on the TCAs
06:26 on the back of it results,
06:27 and one disclaimer from my side,
06:29 it might be there in our PMS pooled in.
06:31 So keeping that in mind,
06:32 we are recommending again buy on this counter
06:35 for the price target of 4200 at the initial level,
06:38 and maybe 4350 later on.
06:40 - Fair point.
06:41 On the fundamental,
06:42 start-up consultancy services is a buy.
06:44 Aastha, I'm coming back to you
06:45 on the first question we're taking today,
06:47 and this is from Ravi Kumar,
06:48 and he's asking about whether or not
06:50 this is the right time to invest
06:52 in the cotton textile industry,
06:55 where he has seen some bit of drop in the prices,
06:59 or he sees that the prices might just be
07:01 a little attractive at this juncture.
07:04 Would you suggest a buy
07:05 in any of the counters in that space?
07:07 - Industry as a whole,
07:11 yes, we have seen the drop in the prices,
07:13 and might be that can be a good counter to say right now,
07:18 yes, that we can do some sort of investment,
07:20 but still I want to wait a little more
07:23 before making a new call in this counter
07:26 or in this industry as a whole.
07:28 So maybe I'll take another quarter to see the results,
07:31 because ultimately the results need to be seen.
07:34 Right now, the results which are coming
07:36 from these counters are not that strong.
07:39 So maybe if we can see the impact
07:41 of these increase in the prices,
07:44 I think then only we can take a call.
07:47 So it might take one or three months
07:49 to just see the or review the things.
07:52 So my idea here is not to jump into these counters right now,
07:56 which are into the cotton textile industries,
07:57 wait for some more time,
07:59 let the Q4, FI24 results come and then take a call.
08:02 - Got it.
08:03 Next up, we have a short term query, Yosho.
08:06 So this one's from Rakesh from Hyderabad.
08:10 He's talking about Natco Pharma.
08:11 He bought the shares at 1,033 and he bought 100 shares.
08:15 From a shorter term perspective,
08:17 would you suggest holding onto this?
08:19 - Well, see Natco Pharma in the recent period
08:22 have seen a very huge movement
08:24 from the zone of nearly 850 odd levels
08:27 till 1,100 odd zone.
08:29 Currently it is consolidating,
08:31 or we can even say that the counter
08:33 is under time-wise correction phase.
08:35 So after the vertical rally,
08:37 there can be some consolidation
08:39 that can be seen in this counter,
08:40 but it is having a very strong technical perspective.
08:44 And from here onwards,
08:45 it is making a base near the 1,000 odd levels.
08:49 So any development above 1,000, 50, 1,060 on the spot zone
08:53 can give a strong thrust in the counter.
08:55 So from short or even from medium-term perspective,
08:58 one should stay invested in this counter.
09:00 The immediate target comes around 1,200,
09:03 but it still has the potential to move
09:05 towards the zone of 1,250 to 1,300
09:08 from a medium-term perspective.
09:10 On immediate basis, 1,100 to 1,160
09:14 should be seen as the immediate resistance
09:16 or immediate target for short-term perspective.
09:18 - Okay, the next question is coming in from Mamta,
09:21 and she's asking about EPAC Durable.
09:25 I would understand, Aastha,
09:26 if you don't have specific fundamental coverage
09:29 on this particular counter.
09:30 It's just under 2,000 crore of market capitalization,
09:33 but what should she do?
09:35 Should she buy it on the fundamentals if you have coverage?
09:39 - Basically, this company came out with this IPO recently.
09:43 So yes, we did cover that in our IPO note,
09:45 and at that time also, our view was not positive
09:49 about this company, and we have not recommended
09:51 subscribe on this IPO for the short-term.
09:54 Maybe if anyone has a long-term perspective,
09:56 then only we have recommended that.
09:58 So talking about this company,
09:59 I'm not very much comfortable with the kind of business
10:03 this company is into because there is a lot of competition,
10:07 and there is nothing particular
10:08 which this company is doing great,
10:11 as we have seen in the cases, or other cases also.
10:14 So talking about this industry,
10:16 there are various other competitors also.
10:18 So the competitive intensity is high for the business
10:22 which this company is into,
10:23 and that's why we were not very much comfortable
10:26 about the business model of the company.
10:27 Secondly, the pricing was not very reasonable.
10:30 They have kept the pricing at an average level also.
10:35 So as far as I remember, the price to earning multiple
10:37 was also not very low.
10:39 So I mean, talking about these factors,
10:41 I think right now also we are not very much comfortable
10:44 about entering into the stock.
10:45 So what we recommend is that don't enter into the stock
10:49 at this present moment of a time.
10:51 Give it more time, let it fall more,
10:53 and then only we can see even results
10:55 should also be need to be seen.
10:57 So I think after both, I mean, results,
10:59 as well as decent correction in the stock prices,
11:03 one can enter into the stock.
11:04 Right now, wait and watch is the strategy
11:06 which one can adopt.
11:07 - Got it.
11:08 Next up, we have a question from Sham Sundar Gupta.
11:11 He's written to us on YouTube.
11:13 He says that he wants to invest 50,000 rupees
11:17 from a perspective of three months
11:19 and is expecting an upside of 20%.
11:23 Osho, would you have any stocks in your basket
11:26 that are capable of giving over 20% returns
11:30 in the next three months?
11:31 - See, that would be great if I can identify
11:34 or I can claim a counter to give a return of 20%
11:37 within the one quarter of time period.
11:39 But there are many counters which are looking very positive
11:43 on the terms of technical perspective
11:45 and even from the front of valuation.
11:47 For me, I will first bet on large cap company
11:50 like HDFC Bank.
11:52 HDFC Bank, after seeing a decisive correction
11:55 from the zone of 1700 towards 1400 now,
11:57 so one should definitely try to keep that counter
12:00 in their portfolio.
12:01 I am not very much surprised that in the coming period,
12:04 it can give a very strong returns,
12:06 but cannot claim to have a 20% kind of a return
12:08 within three months of timeframe.
12:10 But if one can hold this counter
12:12 from medium to long-term perspective,
12:14 one can definitely witness a very strong returns
12:16 in HDFC Bank.
12:17 Second, which is having a bit of higher beta upfront
12:21 that can give a strong volatility or a strong movement
12:24 that can be seen is from Havels.
12:26 Havels is on a verge of multi-week breakout,
12:29 currently hovering around 1,460 odd levels.
12:32 So this is one of the technical pick also.
12:34 So one can definitely try to gauge the momentum
12:37 coming in Havels for a higher target of nearly 15, 20
12:40 on immediate basis,
12:42 but from a longer duration or positional perspective,
12:45 even one can target for 1,600 odd levels,
12:47 1,640 odd levels in the coming future.
12:50 So these two companies,
12:51 one can put in their portfolios.
12:55 - Got it.
12:56 I'm just trying to see,
12:58 do you have enough data on Jannah Small Finance Bank, Osho?
13:02 And if you do, we've got Senthil Kumar,
13:05 who's writing in from Salem in Tamil Nadu,
13:07 asking whether or not it can be bought
13:09 at the current market price.
13:11 - See, this counter does not have that suffice
13:14 technical setup or development that can be enough
13:17 for giving such kind of recommendation
13:19 for a shorter or longer duration perspective.
13:21 But overall, whatever data is there,
13:23 one can definitely look for accumulation purpose
13:26 for a medium term timeframe.
13:28 It's not a very short term perspective.
13:29 One can get a decent returns,
13:31 but from a longer duration,
13:32 yes, one can definitely bet on this counter
13:35 for a higher target,
13:36 near about 490, 500 can be seen on immediate basis,
13:39 but from longer duration,
13:41 one can definitely keep this counter in their portfolio.
13:44 - All right.
13:45 Next up, we're talking about NBCC.
13:47 Shalini bought the shares at 161.
13:50 The current price is below that.
13:52 Now, Osho, she wants to know if,
13:55 now this is a multi-bagger in last one year,
13:58 but is the upside potential limited from here on?
14:01 It's been on a bit of a downturn
14:03 in the last couple of sessions.
14:05 - See, the recent movement from the zone of 100
14:09 towards 175 odd levels was very vertical.
14:12 So one should not be very much surprised
14:14 with some kind of correction or pull off in the counter,
14:16 because if we will be seeing the movement
14:19 was approximately 80 points,
14:21 so even 50% corrections comes at around 140, 130 odd levels.
14:25 So currently it is hovering around 50% of the retracement.
14:29 So from here onwards,
14:30 there can be some kind of time-wise correction
14:32 that can be seen, but longer duration,
14:34 it is a very positive counter,
14:35 and one can definitely keep this counter
14:37 for investment perspective.
14:39 For shorter term, there can be some kind of consolidation
14:42 or even further correction in this counter.
14:44 On immediate basis, the support lies around 120
14:48 to 125 odd levels.
14:50 On the higher end, again, once the counter moves
14:52 beyond the zone of 155,
14:54 then it can gain some strong traction in the coming period.
14:57 - We got Babu who's asking about Grinwell Norton.
15:02 He's been holding it for the last two years,
15:04 and he's been hoping that the abrasive business
15:08 would do well.
15:09 The question is to you, Aastha, on the fundamentals.
15:13 What is the long-term outlook
15:15 based on your reading of the company,
15:16 and should he hold on to his investment?
15:18 - So long-term outlook is positive.
15:22 First of all, I want to give the price target,
15:23 which is at 2,500 at the initial level.
15:27 So talking about this counter,
15:28 yes, this counter is looking good to us.
15:30 Although the results which they have posted,
15:33 the moderation was there in the bottom line,
15:35 it was just a 10% uptick,
15:38 which they have shown in their bottom line as a growth.
15:41 So I mean, the bottom line's growth was not very high,
15:44 but looking after the industry perspective,
15:47 we are positive on this counter and recommending a buy
15:50 as well as hold for the price target of 2,400 to 2,500
15:53 at the current levels.
15:55 - All right.
15:56 We'll slip into a short break,
15:58 and after the break, we'll take the rest of the questions.
16:00 Stay tuned.
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19:13 - Welcome back, you're watching Ask Prophet.
19:24 Now, we are in the midst of the query segment
19:26 and you can see that number on the bottom of your screen.
19:28 If you've got a question for us,
19:30 you can send them to us on that number.
19:32 We've got Vishwanath Gowda, who's writing in from Pune
19:36 and is asking about Shilpa Medicare,
19:37 which he's bought at levels of 448.
19:42 The stock is currently trading below that
19:44 and in fact, he's losing a little bit of ground,
19:46 but he's asking whether he can hold
19:48 for a period of a month or so.
19:50 Osho, based on the technicals, based on the charts,
19:54 should he hold on?
19:56 - See, definitely, this counter,
19:57 if I'll be looking on the weekly time frame,
19:59 this counter has given a cup and handle pattern breakout
20:03 from the zone of nearly 380 to 390 odd levels.
20:07 So, with the pattern development that is also on the downtrend,
20:10 it's a very positive development on the technical chart.
20:13 No doubt, because from 380,
20:14 we have seen a very vertical rally.
20:16 So, it might retest the neckline of 390, 400 odd levels,
20:21 but one should stay intact in this counter.
20:23 The duration or the higher target,
20:25 both are very huge.
20:27 The duration is approximately three months
20:30 and the target comes around 520 to 540.
20:33 So, one should definitely stay invested.
20:35 If there is some dip towards the zone of 390, 400,
20:38 then even one can add more positions in this counter.
20:41 - Got it.
20:42 Next up, we're talking about Arjun Chemical.
20:46 This one's from Satya, who's written to us on YouTube.
20:49 He bought the stock at 600 levels.
20:51 It's currently trading around 800 or so, above that.
20:56 From a longer-term perspective,
20:58 Asa, do you have coverage on the stock?
21:00 And if you do, is there any target for the stock?
21:04 - Talking about this counter, sorry,
21:07 I don't cover this stock, so I cannot comment on that.
21:10 Arjun Chemical, we have not the stock in our coverage.
21:14 - All right.
21:15 I'll take it to Osho then.
21:18 From a technical standpoint,
21:20 what's the kind of trajectory do you see for the stock?
21:24 - See, the technical breakout have been seen here about 660
21:28 and the positional target comes around the zone of 900.
21:32 But as there has been a vertical rally from 660 towards
21:36 800 odd levels,
21:37 so one should definitely keep trailing their profits
21:40 with a revised stop loss.
21:41 At present, 760, 65 is the zone
21:45 where one can keep their stop losses to trail their profit.
21:49 On the higher end, 900 is the positional target.
21:52 But in between, we might see some kind of correction
21:54 because the technical parameters are definitely overbought.
21:58 So even if there is some kind of correction below 75,
22:01 towards let's say 700, 720,
22:04 then one can even further add positions in this counter.
22:07 The positional target remains at 900 odd levels.
22:10 - Okay.
22:11 We've got a viewer writing in from Leh Ladakh.
22:13 Smanla is writing in, asking about two counters,
22:16 but I will take a question on NHPC.
22:20 But Smanla has bought at levels of 97.
22:22 Where's the stock currently trading?
22:24 Let's take a look.
22:24 It's trading at just below that price at around 91.
22:30 So Smanla has got 2,170 shares of this particular counter.
22:34 On the fundamentals, Aastha,
22:36 NHPC, part of that entire power pack that has been in focus,
22:41 would you say that it's a hold at this point?
22:45 - Hold at this point, but one thing,
22:46 I think she can see some more downside in the stock prices
22:51 and the reason behind it,
22:53 that we have seen the degrowth in their bottom line.
22:56 Apart from that, in fact, the price to earning multiple
22:59 of more than 28 is also not working well
23:01 because the industry is running at a 20 P multiple.
23:04 So I think from the valuation perspective,
23:07 as well as the financial performance perspective,
23:10 the stock can see more downside,
23:12 but in the longer term perspective,
23:14 because of the industry tailwind,
23:15 we are positive on this counter.
23:17 So my take here is that wait for some more time,
23:21 at least for three months,
23:22 and make it as a long-term holding,
23:24 because in the short run,
23:25 we can see some more pain in the stock,
23:27 but in the long term,
23:28 I think the cost price again can be seen,
23:31 which is 97 rupees.
23:32 And this stock has a potential to move
23:34 above those levels also,
23:36 provided if they post strong financial performance,
23:39 but for the time being,
23:40 the stock can see more downside.
23:41 This is what we believe on the basis
23:43 of their past financial performance.
23:45 - All right.
23:47 Next up, we're talking about Sanghvi Movers.
23:49 This one's from Amit Rastogi on YouTube.
23:52 Aastha, do you have a fundamental view on this one?
23:55 It's the stock is a little bit of a downturn today.
24:00 Yeah, no, sorry.
24:02 It's up 1%, apologies there.
24:04 Do you have the stock in your coverage?
24:07 And if you do, is there any target in the stock?
24:09 - Yes, we like the stock.
24:12 In fact, we have recommended in the past also.
24:14 So talking about this counter bottom move,
24:16 it has shown in past few days,
24:20 I should say, or a few months.
24:22 So now the major reason behind
24:23 is the 95% increase in their bottom line
24:26 in the Q3 of FY24 goes well
24:29 with the company's stock performance also.
24:32 Apart from that, the industry in which this company is into,
24:35 so we have seen the automobile industry
24:38 is really doing strongly
24:40 and what we are expecting moving ahead also,
24:42 this industry will grow at a decent CAGR.
24:45 So that will also help the company
24:46 in showing strong financial performance going ahead.
24:50 So on the basis of the strong financial performance
24:53 of 95% rise in the bottom line in Q3 of FY24,
24:57 we are really positive on this counter,
24:59 recommending hold on this counter.
25:00 Price target can be set at 1200 to 1250,
25:03 the initial levels.
25:05 - Got it, all right.
25:06 Jignesh Shah from Ahmedabad has got the next question.
25:09 He's asking about PTC India.
25:12 The purchase price is 239.7.
25:15 He's got 161 shares.
25:17 Let's pull up the chart and see what it's currently trading.
25:19 And we've got Osho.
25:20 Osho, what's the view on the chart?
25:23 Should you hold on to this one?
25:25 - See again, as we have seen,
25:27 there has been a very strong movement in this counter
25:30 from the odd levels of near to 130 odd levels
25:33 towards the 250 odd levels.
25:35 So there can be some correction that can be seen
25:37 and these things should be considered healthy
25:40 in a bullish market.
25:41 So any consolidation towards the zone of 190
25:44 to between 190 to 200 odd levels
25:47 should be considered healthy.
25:48 The technical parameters have pulled off
25:51 from the overbought zone towards the comfortable zone
25:54 of just above the oversold territory.
25:56 So from here on, one can expect the rally to continue
26:00 in the recent period.
26:01 But before that, there can be some time-wise correction
26:04 that can be seen.
26:05 So one should stay intact for a medium
26:07 to long-term duration in this counter.
26:09 - Got it.
26:10 Next up, we have a question from Vignesh.
26:12 Actually, he has multiple questions,
26:14 but I'm going to take the one on Tata Motors.
26:17 He says that he already is sitting
26:19 on a profit of 40% on Tata Motors.
26:23 Now, we've seen certain reports, Aastha,
26:26 that Tata Motors is planning to list its EV business.
26:31 Now, from that perspective,
26:32 how do you think this is going to unlock value
26:36 for the people who are already into the stock
26:39 from a longer-term perspective?
26:42 - Definitely, it will create a strong value
26:44 for the people who are already into the stock.
26:46 Apart from that, what is working well for this company
26:49 is their guidance, especially if I talk about JLR.
26:52 So they have really shown strong performance.
26:55 And now, in fact, if I talk about the guidance also,
26:58 whatever guidance they are giving is looking very positive.
27:01 So yes, I mean, the combination of all will help this company
27:04 to move further from here.
27:07 And we can see a Northward Ready in this counter,
27:10 expecting stock prices to move towards North side
27:13 and our price target for the same is 1100.
27:16 So recommending buy as well as hold on this counter
27:18 to the price target of 1100.
27:20 - Point.
27:22 We've got Tarun who's got the next question
27:25 and he's writing in from Ranchi.
27:27 Tarun, thanks so much for writing in.
27:28 Tarun wants to know about Indus Tower.
27:31 And, you know, we've got Smriti who's been talking
27:35 about Vodafone idea and their plans to raise capital.
27:39 That's going to be discussed today, of course.
27:41 And that could, in fact,
27:43 have a positive bearing on Indus Tower.
27:45 So let's get a fundamental view on this ASA
27:49 at the current market price,
27:51 given everything that we know
27:52 about this particular counter,
27:53 would you suggest a fresh entry?
27:55 - Yes, one can make a fresh entry
27:57 because I can see a turnaround case
28:00 from the negative or a negative profit
28:03 in the Q3 of FY22 to the positive profit
28:07 in the Q3 of FY24.
28:10 So I think a turnaround case from FY23 to 24
28:13 makes a case to buy into this counter.
28:16 We are positive on this counter
28:18 and recommending buy as well as hold.
28:21 Price target can be set at somewhere
28:23 around 280 at the initial levels.
28:25 - All right.
28:26 Unfortunately, we're completely out of time
28:29 on this edition of Ask Profit.
28:31 Thank you so much, Aastha and Osho,
28:33 for joining and for answering questions for us.
28:37 And viewers, if we were not able to take questions today,
28:42 and there are multiple of them that I can see on YouTube,
28:45 we'll definitely try and take them tomorrow.
28:47 So come back tomorrow at 11.30 a.m.,
28:49 but lots more coming up on NDTV Profit.
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