Ukraine : Macron remonte en première ligne, non sans risques

  • 7 months ago
En 2022, il ne voulait pas "humilier" la Russie, deux ans plus tard il veut l'empêcher de "gagner" la guerre : en changeant radicalement de posture jusqu'à agiter le spectre d'un envoi de troupes au sol, Emmanuel Macron tente de reprendre l'initiative dans le conflit ukrainien, au risque de se retrouver bien seul.

"En dynamique, rien ne doit être exclu", a-t-il lancé lundi soir, interrogé sur la possibilité d'un tel envoi, à l'issue d'une réunion avec ses homologues européens à l'Elysée, tout en reconnaissant l'absence de "consensus" sur le sujet et en assumant une certaine "ambiguïté stratégique".

Une façon pour le président français de se poser de nouveau en leader, en mettant les pieds dans le plat comme il l'avait fait en évoquant la "mort cérébrale" de l'Otan.

La réponse ne s'est en tout pas fait attendre du côté de Berlin, principal partenaire de la France.
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Transcript
00:00 In 2022, he did not want to humiliate Russia, two years later he wants to prevent it from
00:04 winning the war by radically changing posture until the specter of a troop
00:09 attack on the ground is shaken, Emmanuel Macron is trying to take the initiative in the Ukrainian conflict,
00:13 at the risk of finding himself alone. In Dynamics, nothing must be excluded,
00:18 did he launch Monday evening, questioned the possibility of such a send-off,
00:22 at the end of a meeting with his European counterparts at the Elysée, while recognizing
00:26 the absence of consensus on the subject and assuming a certain strategic ambiguity.
00:30 A way for the French president to get back to the lead, by putting his feet in the
00:36 dish as he had done by evoking NATO's brain death. The answer was not
00:41 expected on the part of Berlin, the main partner of France. No soldier will be sent,
00:47 neither by the European states, nor by NATO, to Tuesday, Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
00:53 Several European allies have put the same reserves. Emmanuel Macron wants to raise the stakes and the
00:58 role of France to have a seat at the table of the redefinition of the balances of
01:02 European security, estimates a diplomat from another allied country in front of this new French
01:07 solo rider. Double message. In the end, with this stormy announcement at the end of a
01:13 quickly organized meeting, the head of state is at risk of again arriving at the opposite effect
01:17 of the one who was sought, whatever the well-founded of his approach.
01:22 It was a message addressed to Russia, a way of signaling that there is no
01:25 fatigue and that the Europeans will not give up their support for Ukraine
01:29 as the war enters its third year, describes Marie Dumoulin,
01:32 expert at the ECFR, European Council for Foreign Relations.
01:36 Russian as European, all are at the head of the American ice, blocked by the Republicans in the
01:42 Congress, who heavily hypothesize the Ukrainians, already in difficulty on the ground, and the
01:47 possible re-election of Donald Trump which could be heavy consequences on the outcome of the conflict.
01:52 President Macron also wanted to tell public opinions European, if we do not want to
01:56 arrive at the sending of troops, we must strengthen support, in arms, now,
02:00 pursues the ECFR researcher. But the debate may be counterproductive, she says.
02:06 For Cyril Brett, from the European Research Institute Jacques Delors, he lets the ambiguity
02:12 strategic, doubt on the possibility of such a send in order to dissuade by advance any
02:16 Russian progression pronounced in Ukraine to the approach of the double Russian presidential
02:20 Russian in March and American in November. False debate. From the Russian point of view, it is necessary
02:26 that in the spring they were able to recover a little ground to start negotiating at the time
02:29 of the American elections, anticipates a diplomatic source French.
02:33 With this radical change of doctrine, the French president breaks a taboo but also risks
02:39 trigger a debate that escapes him in Europe when it comes to knowing who is ready to die
02:43 for Ukraine, pursues Cyril Brett. "There is a real strategic turn,
02:47 whose realization, materialization, seriousness in the long run remains to be demonstrated,"
02:52 warns the researcher. For Michael Ross, head of the Foreign Affairs Commission at the Bundestag,
02:58 German Parliament's base chamber, the sending of soldiers is a false debate.
03:02 "I don't know anyone who wants it seriously, not even in Ukraine.
03:06 They especially need ammunition, air defense, drones, long-range weapons," he says.
03:14 Napoleon said "we are committed and then we see," says French sheriff Isbourg,
03:18 advisor to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (ISS) in London.
03:22 "Ambiguity is played to dissuade an adversary."
03:25 But there, Emmanuel Macron has especially sowed confusion among our partners, he continues.
03:31 "And everything that gives the impression of disorder is good to take for the Russian
03:36 and pro-Russian propagandists," he puts on guard.
03:38 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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