EU already making 'contingency plans' in case Trump returns, expert says
President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump romped through more than a dozen states on Super Tuesday, all but cementing a November rematch. According to the head of the Paris office of the European Council of Foreign Relations, Célia Belin, Europe is already beginning to put in place new rhetoric and even new structures to cope with a potential reduction or withdrawal of military support from the US, in the event that Trump wins the presidential election. Belin says the potential doubt over Trump's full military support for Europe means that nations have no choice but to reassess their defence, as well as Ukraine's defence, should Trump abandon Kyiv. She spoke to us in the wake of Super Tuesday for Perspective.
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Transcript
00:00 Let's continue our analysis now.
00:02 Joining me here on set is Celia Belang.
00:03 She's head of the Paris office of the European Council
00:06 of Foreign Relations here in Paris.
00:08 She's also an invited researcher at the Brookings Institute
00:11 in Washington.
00:11 Thanks very much for coming in and talking to us today.
00:14 There really is no doubt now, is there,
00:16 that we're heading for a rematch, if you like,
00:19 Trump versus Biden in November.
00:21 Well, there was almost no doubt yesterday as well.
00:24 So it's just a confirmation of what
00:26 we had seen, which was domination by Donald Trump
00:29 in the Republican field, and with almost
00:32 a mathematical impossibility for Nikki Haley
00:35 to be an actual challenger to Donald Trump.
00:38 And on the other side, on the Biden side, of course,
00:41 he's the incumbent.
00:42 He's decided more than a year ago
00:44 that he wanted to try again to seek re-election.
00:49 And therefore, apart from displeasure
00:52 from a part of electorates who would like him
00:55 to be a younger man, who would like him to be
00:58 a different candidate maybe, he's still
01:00 winning across the board.
01:01 So we do have now our--
01:05 we already know who's going to face whom in November.
01:08 At least we know where we are, I suppose.
01:10 I mean, voters in the US seem very unenthusiastic,
01:13 don't they, about this rematch.
01:16 What about us here in Europe?
01:18 Let's start off talking about each candidate.
01:19 Joe Biden, how enthusiastic would you be,
01:22 do you think Europeans would be, about the idea of an ongoing
01:25 Biden presidency?
01:28 Well, it has to be compared to the alternative.
01:32 That's the first point, which makes Europeans more
01:35 likely to support Joe Biden.
01:37 But also, it's in the light of what's
01:40 happened in the past two years since the Russian attack
01:44 on aggression on Ukraine.
01:46 Joe Biden has proven to be able to be the American president
01:51 that leads Europe, that leads the Western world, that
01:55 is cementing a transatlantic solidarity.
01:58 Even when there are divisions among Europeans,
02:02 the Americans have sought to find a consensus
02:07 amongst Europeans and with Europeans.
02:11 As far as the Ukraine war is concerned,
02:13 this would be of major importance
02:16 to have someone sitting in the Oval Office that
02:19 is continued belief that a strategic defeat should
02:23 be imposed to Russia on the battlefield in Ukraine,
02:27 that is ready to support financially
02:29 Ukraine in the long run.
02:31 And generally, that has a positive outlook
02:34 on cooperation with Europe, with the Trade and Technology
02:37 Council, for example.
02:38 So all across the board, you have
02:40 a cooperative American president, which in itself
02:44 is a big plus.
02:46 Cooperative, yes.
02:47 Is that the same for Donald Trump, I suppose,
02:49 is the next question?
02:50 Well, not at all.
02:51 We all remember what's happened during the first mandate
02:54 of Donald Trump, where you had high opposition
02:57 between Europeans and Americans all across the board.
03:03 Famously, Donald Trump said that the European Union was even
03:07 worse than China, which is quite something to say.
03:10 And he was talking mostly about trade.
03:12 He was a very fierce trade advocate for the US
03:16 and competitor to the EU and to China.
03:21 He imposed tariffs on the military front
03:28 and the security front.
03:29 He was also one of the biggest criticism of European allies
03:34 who did not spend enough on defence, which
03:36 is a classic criticism.
03:38 Arguably, Barack Obama and his administration
03:42 also criticised Europeans.
03:44 But the difference with Donald Trump,
03:46 it's that he has always inserted an element of doubt
03:51 of whether he would actually stand with NATO allies
03:54 in case of an aggression.
03:56 The aggression has already happened under Biden's watch.
03:59 But if it has to now shift to Trump,
04:04 the question would remain, would Donald Trump
04:06 be able to be that leader president,
04:09 to be on the side of Europeans?
04:12 And it's more than a doubt.
04:14 There's almost certainty that things would change.
04:17 They are already changing in anticipation
04:20 of his potential return.
04:21 I mean, Donald Trump has even threatened to pull out
04:23 of NATO altogether.
04:24 Yes, so he has in the past said that he
04:28 was disregarding Article 5 or that he was not really
04:31 interested in NATO solidarity or security guarantees.
04:35 He might have-- he talked about pulling out of NATO.
04:39 Actually, he did not.
04:40 He said later that he was only using this
04:43 as leverage for European allies to spend more.
04:47 He's sort of doing that again, but increasing the pressure
04:53 by saying most recently that Russia could do whatever
04:58 the hell they wanted to allies who didn't pay up for defence.
05:03 One of the issues is that it's as if he's not
05:06 taking into account all the investment
05:08 that Europeans have made.
05:09 He's pretending that only Americans and the US
05:13 are paying for Ukraine's defence.
05:16 Only them are mobilising and investing
05:20 in defence, which is not at all the case.
05:22 Things have changed a lot in the past two years.
05:25 So really, there's no way of knowing how much this
05:31 would be put in place.
05:33 What we know is also Donald Trump's intention
05:36 to potentially strike a deal with Putin
05:40 immediately after taking office.
05:41 That's his fantasy.
05:43 That's the ideal that he would like to seek.
05:45 He wants to put an end to the war in Ukraine.
05:47 And for this, he's probably ready to arm wrestle
05:50 the Europeans and the Ukrainians.
05:52 You said that things are starting to change already.
05:54 I mean, do you think Europe is prepared enough, though,
05:56 for the possibility of Donald Trump?
05:58 Rather that it started to change in the US, actually.
06:01 The supplemental package that was
06:03 supposed to fund Ukraine aid and Israel aid
06:06 and also border security is stuck in Congress
06:09 because of a minority of Trumpian congressmen
06:16 and women who are trying to have their way in not funding
06:20 Ukraine anymore.
06:22 And by that token, Europeans have taken note
06:25 and are already sort of putting in place
06:27 the type of military support for Ukraine,
06:31 but also the type of rhetoric that
06:33 would counter that element.
06:35 Most recently, the French President Emmanuel Macron,
06:39 as recently as three days ago, said
06:42 that France and other European countries
06:47 would be ready to send military personnel on the ground,
06:51 not necessarily to combat, but that there
06:54 was a conversation on it.
06:56 Not really ready now, but that the conversation
06:59 should be open on that front.
07:00 And this is a direct consequence of Europeans and French
07:05 trying to jump over this potential risk of Donald Trump
07:09 returning to the White House.
07:11 Emmanuel Macron, didn't he, last year even said,
07:14 didn't he, and was strongly criticised for saying,
07:17 that Europe has got to start standing on its own.
07:19 It can't rely on the US in the future.
07:21 I mean, he's been proved right, hasn't he?
07:24 But he's not quite there yet, right?
07:26 So there is a majority in Congress,
07:29 both on the Republican and Democratic side,
07:31 for voting the supplemental on Ukraine, actually.
07:35 What's standing in the way is a minority
07:37 of Trumpian congressmen who are blocking
07:40 the Speaker of the House, who's not taking it,
07:43 you know, taking upon himself to bring this vote to the floor.
07:47 But so potentially, actually, if this issue
07:52 would be overcome, you would have the supplemental package.
07:56 If you have a re-election of Joe Biden,
07:59 you actually don't have a major change.
08:03 The issue for Europeans is that it's an either/or.
08:06 There's almost a 50/50 chance of seeing Joe Biden
08:09 or Donald Trump sitting in the White House in a year.
08:12 And that makes the whole difference.
08:14 So there's contingency plan, but it's extremely difficult
08:18 to plan in such an uncertainty.
08:21 Great to have your analysis on the programme today.
08:22 Thank you very much for coming in and talking to us.
08:24 Celia Bélazs, who's head of the Paris office
08:27 of the European Council of Foreign Relations here in Paris.