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00:00 We can bring in Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, professor of Russian politics and director of King's
00:06 Russia Institute at King's College London.
00:09 Good evening.
00:10 Thank you very much for joining us here on France 24.
00:13 First question, how will this vote, these results influence Moscow's actions in Ukraine
00:19 for the months to come?
00:22 I think the, we shouldn't call it elections, more of an affirmation in power, didn't really
00:28 change the situation and it's going to be used as a signal to the domestic and foreign
00:34 audiences but the Kremlin stance on Russia's war will continue and that is sort of a resolute
00:40 commitment to trying to achieve whatever goals that it can achieve there.
00:47 We've had statements, pretty harsh statements coming out from Western capitals including
00:51 London and here in Paris we had the French foreign ministry who said the conditions for
00:55 free election were not met in Russia.
00:58 We've had Western leaders who've tried to paint Vladimir Putin as isolated on the world
01:02 stage yet today we've had words of congratulations coming from Beijing and just a short while
01:07 ago India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi putting out a statement congratulating Vladimir Putin.
01:12 Is he really isolated on the world stage like the West wants us to believe?
01:18 The Kremlin's strategy has been to juxtapose the West to the global South and to pinpoint
01:25 Russia and the Kremlin itself and the Russian leadership as the leader of the anti-imperialist
01:31 or anti-colonial movement to say, playing on the historical wounds and traumas in the
01:38 global South.
01:40 So that has been the strategy and it seems to be working in terms of building these big
01:45 geopolitical alliances pitted against each other.
01:50 So I think that's what we're seeing when we see Modi and Xi Jinping supporting and affirming
01:56 the results of these elections.
01:58 And is that also why we see the Russian economy doing as well as it's done in the face of
02:03 Western sanctions?
02:04 I believe growth came in at 3.6 percent last year.
02:08 Joe Biden said the ruble would turn to rubble.
02:11 That hasn't happened.
02:12 Is it because we're having, we see Russia being propped up by New Delhi and Beijing?
02:18 Absolutely, absolutely.
02:20 A lot of trade exchanges have been reoriented towards China specifically and India and the
02:27 Russian car markets are dominated by Chinese cars these days.
02:32 And India is buying a lot of Russian oil.
02:35 And so globalization in terms of all the trade linkages that connect countries, but in this
02:43 case the West only raising sanctions and many other big economies Russia relies on are not
02:52 participating in sanctions and are propping up the Russian economy.
02:57 Absolutely, that has been the big way out for a Russian economy to sustain and to keep
03:01 imports in and specific exports out.
03:05 I mentioned the statement from the French foreign ministry earlier.
03:09 We do have the French president Emmanuel Macron, who seemed to have changed his views on Russia
03:17 and its actions in Ukraine two years ago.
03:20 Emmanuel Macron was of the thinking that Vladimir Putin could not be embarrassed on the world
03:26 stage and he had to be given something.
03:27 That obviously, that rhetoric seems to have changed over the past two years.
03:33 Has Emmanuel Macron taken it to a certain level that you cannot go back to a regular
03:38 normal relationship with Russia once whatever happens, whatever Ukraine wants to see happen
03:46 on its territory actually happens?
03:49 I think for the Western countries now it's clear that Putin is not someone who they can
03:55 speak to constructively.
03:58 And that commitment and that understanding has been there over the past two years.
04:03 But indeed, we see quite a shift in terms of the narratives that come from Emmanuel
04:09 Macron.
04:10 And now we are yet to see whether these words are going to be supported by actions.
04:16 That's where the real meaning of the words will come.
04:20 But indeed, we have seen a big change in discourse.
04:24 And we obviously see the outcome of this election.
04:29 We know what happened last month to Alexei Navalny.
04:33 He was killed while in prison.
04:35 Where does all of this leave Russia's opposition?
04:38 Because it seems like it's Vladimir Putin right now for the next six years.
04:43 We don't know who's being groomed to be next in line, if you will.
04:50 But where is Russia's opposition, considering that whatever little opposition there is in
04:54 the country has very little teeth?
04:57 Most opposition is outside the country by now, and the repressive context of the Russian
05:03 political system has grown enormously over the past years.
05:08 And unfortunately, we're expecting the terror and repressions to increase further, and for
05:14 any other independent activist actions to be rooted out.
05:19 So unfortunately, the role of opposition is marginalized inside the country entirely.
05:24 And we can only see some underground actions.
05:29 Outside the opposition can organize, can try to influence Western governments, can try
05:34 to maintain certain links to activists inside Russia and support them the way they can,
05:40 and can do some things to maintain linkages, collaboration, a sense of belonging among
05:48 the Russian opposition that is outside the country, and among many Russians who flee
05:53 from war outside the country.
05:55 And the opposition event noon against Putin was one of such events that was aiming at
06:03 bringing people out to show that they're not alone.
06:06 So it wasn't about voting as much as about maintaining the linkages and maintaining a
06:12 sense that, you know, that Russians who are against Putin are not alone and that there
06:17 are big majorities.
06:18 So big lines that we saw on Sundays indicate precisely that and were signaling event for
06:26 people who find themselves outside and as isolated.
06:28 Gulnaz, we're going to have to leave it there.
06:30 Thank you very much for joining us on the program.
06:32 That was Gulnaz Ashrafutdinova.