Nifty, Sensex Trade Lower As Bank Stocks Drag | India Market Close | NDTV Profit
- Two #TataGroup companies under NBFC-UL
- #TorrentPower receives LoA worth Rs 1,540 crore
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
- #TorrentPower receives LoA worth Rs 1,540 crore
Niraj Shah and Tamanna Inamdar dissect key market trends and explore what's to come tomorrow, on 'India Market Close'. #NDTVProfitLive
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TVTranscript
00:00:00 [MUSIC PLAYING]
00:00:28 Thanks for tuning into India Market Close.
00:00:29 And let's show the highlights of the market,
00:00:32 because I think we've come off from where we were
00:00:35 and trading close to the lowest point of the day.
00:00:37 Multiple reasons could be ascribed to them.
00:00:39 But I mean, half a percent is par for the course
00:00:41 for any single day.
00:00:43 So 22372 for the Nifty.
00:00:46 The bank Nifty should come up on your screen about a percent
00:00:48 higher, and banks are dragging right from private banks
00:00:51 to State Bank of India.
00:00:52 All of them are down.
00:00:54 In fact, if you look at the Nifty constituents
00:00:55 on the losing end, it is HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, as well as--
00:01:01 excuse me for this--
00:01:02 as well as State Bank of India, which is playing a part there.
00:01:06 Bring up the mid-caps and the small caps,
00:01:08 because the market breadth we know is wobbly.
00:01:11 But just the extent of correction in the mid-caps,
00:01:13 not as much, but the small caps were down over a percent,
00:01:17 and now down about 1.66%, arguably trading
00:01:19 at the lowest point of the day.
00:01:21 Let's get the heat map up on the screen
00:01:22 and show you what's moving and what's not.
00:01:24 And start off with the losers, maybe,
00:01:26 and then go on to the gainers.
00:01:28 Tata Consumer, symptomatic of what's
00:01:30 happened to the Tata Group stocks today.
00:01:32 Save for Trent and save for maybe TCS and Tata LXC.
00:01:36 All Tata Group stocks are in the red.
00:01:38 So Tata Consumer down about 3%, Tata Steel 2.5%.
00:01:42 Like I was saying, banks are looking weak.
00:01:43 So SBI is down about a couple of percentage points,
00:01:46 giving companies HDFC Bank, IndusInd Bank, as well as Kotak
00:01:49 Bank.
00:01:49 So that whole set of stocks are looking weak.
00:01:52 But there is kind of evens to evens
00:01:55 on the gainers and the losers.
00:01:56 And what is moving up are not too many heavyweights,
00:01:59 but Apollo Hospitals, Nestle, Cipla.
00:02:01 So some of the lightweights have some gains to themselves,
00:02:04 which is kind of balancing the dismal show of the banks.
00:02:08 Now, before I hand it over to Kamanna,
00:02:10 as you saw the flash on your screen,
00:02:11 I know futures in Singapore are down 7% now.
00:02:14 They were down about 4%, 4.5% at about 10 AM or thereabouts.
00:02:18 And look at the metal index, save for APL Apollo,
00:02:20 which is actually not a metal stock per se.
00:02:23 And JSW Steel, almost everything
00:02:25 is taking it on the chin.
00:02:27 So metals, Tata Group, banking, Tamanna,
00:02:30 the list is very, very long of stocks
00:02:33 which are just kind of losing a bit of steam today.
00:02:37 Yeah, I think sentimentally, perhaps also a bit of overhang
00:02:40 of what the Supreme Court has said to SBI,
00:02:43 with a deadline that they've given them on electoral bonds.
00:02:47 Remember, this is something, of course,
00:02:49 apart from those who analyze elections and politics,
00:02:52 the market's going to watch,
00:02:53 corporates are going to watch when that list is out.
00:02:57 And it's an overhang on the banking system and SBI as well.
00:03:00 But let's talk about the Tata Group stocks
00:03:02 because that's truly the story of the day.
00:03:04 Now, if the run-up didn't make too much sense
00:03:07 because everyone knew that the IPO deadline,
00:03:10 if there is one, is going to be
00:03:12 towards the second half of 2025,
00:03:14 the slide back also doesn't make too much sense
00:03:16 because nothing has fundamentally changed
00:03:19 in a Tata Chemical or a Tata Investment
00:03:21 or a Tata Telly or in Indian hotels.
00:03:23 And this, I mean, pick up any of those counters,
00:03:26 Neeraj pointed some in the nifty side of things
00:03:29 and all of them are down in the red.
00:03:31 And I would say that's really the big story.
00:03:33 20, 25,000 crores of market cap have been wiped out today.
00:03:37 In fact, we will be asking our experts in a bit
00:03:40 whether there are good opportunities here
00:03:41 to pick up something from the group.
00:03:43 But that's one story.
00:03:44 JTL Industries is the other one.
00:03:46 And this has taken a hit on huge volumes today
00:03:50 in the steel pipes business.
00:03:52 This is because of an affiliate company, actually,
00:03:56 a company called Zenith Multitrading DMCC
00:03:58 has got about 27.6 lakh shares in JTL
00:04:03 because it's a conversion, really, to equity of warrants.
00:04:08 And one of the promoters of that company
00:04:11 is set to be under an ED investigation.
00:04:13 So by association, in a sense,
00:04:16 that's stock 20% down today.
00:04:19 The other ones I would mark out are the financials,
00:04:22 JM Financial, IFL Financial,
00:04:25 the ones under regulatory overhang.
00:04:27 And you're seeing that in play today,
00:04:28 9% down on JM Financial.
00:04:30 IFL Finance also seeing a 7% down tick.
00:04:35 Torrent Power is doing fine.
00:04:37 I wanted to pick a few stocks which are doing okay.
00:04:39 Torrent Power is one of them.
00:04:40 LOA from the Maharashtra State Electricity Body.
00:04:44 DB Reality, not so much,
00:04:45 but that's because their QIP is coming in
00:04:47 at a bit of a discount.
00:04:48 And you're seeing that on DB Reality,
00:04:51 they were able to raise about 1500 crores
00:04:53 and their QIP price is 258.
00:04:56 So that's why you're seeing that price correct.
00:04:59 But overall, I would say a bit of a somber day
00:05:02 in the markets.
00:05:03 And you're seeing that, I would say,
00:05:06 uncertainty here at play out.
00:05:09 - Certainly looks like that.
00:05:10 And I think it's great to maybe try and question
00:05:13 our experts on the show today.
00:05:15 The three different guests with each specific suite
00:05:18 trying to tell us what to do in a scenario like this.
00:05:20 Let's get in our first guest, Hemant Kapadia,
00:05:22 Senior VP Institutional Equity at KR Chokshi
00:05:24 Stocks and Securities.
00:05:26 Hemant, great having you.
00:05:26 Thanks for taking the time out.
00:05:27 Good afternoon.
00:05:28 Not a very good afternoon,
00:05:30 especially if you're a small cap investor.
00:05:32 But then you will say that's been the pattern
00:05:35 a whole of last week too.
00:05:36 How are you viewing trade on the benchmarks?
00:05:42 - A very good afternoon, Neeraj.
00:05:44 Thank you for having me on the show.
00:05:46 It's always a pleasure.
00:05:48 Like you said, I think small caps have been corrected.
00:05:52 There's a sixth week in a row.
00:05:54 So frankly speaking, SEBI, Nudge or not,
00:05:56 it's already built in somewhere in the price.
00:05:59 So mid caps are doing a bit weaker
00:06:02 and small caps are weaker than the mid caps.
00:06:04 So that happens.
00:06:06 Weeks has staged a small recovery,
00:06:08 but nothing significant, I'd say.
00:06:10 But I was hoping that we'd go below 13 today.
00:06:12 That's not happened.
00:06:14 We're at 14 though and slipping a bit.
00:06:17 Well, the market seemed to be consolidating a bit, Neeraj.
00:06:19 The only worry, if any,
00:06:21 is that gold going through the roof.
00:06:23 Now that is disconcerting.
00:06:26 Normally you won't expect the markets,
00:06:28 gold, crypto, everything going together.
00:06:30 But so gold going through the roof,
00:06:32 somewhere, somehow, something we don't know,
00:06:36 the market has anticipated some geopolitical tensions,
00:06:39 but that seems to be the fly in the ointment, so to speak.
00:06:44 But otherwise, yeah, we've had a phenomenal move.
00:06:47 A little bit of a consolidation, not very surprising.
00:06:49 Reliance has cooled off.
00:06:50 Bank Nifty is taking it easy.
00:06:53 So you need either Reliance and Bank Nifty.
00:06:56 You need either IT and Reliance
00:07:01 or Adani Enterprise to fire.
00:07:03 Now, none of these things are happening.
00:07:04 So frankly speaking, I'd be specific.
00:07:07 Mid cap, small cap,
00:07:08 I don't know whether this is going to be a permanent issue,
00:07:11 but as of now, it seems like a correction in a move.
00:07:14 So I'd be more stock specific.
00:07:16 Metals are looking good, Neeraj.
00:07:19 They posted a fresh all-time high index,
00:07:20 notwithstanding what has happened today.
00:07:23 SMCD is oversold, downtrend up the limit.
00:07:25 IT seems a bit promising.
00:07:27 So I'd say nothing much to worry.
00:07:30 Maybe it's one of those days we just take it easy, Neeraj.
00:07:33 - I heard you say that metals look promising.
00:07:34 Would you be a buyer into any of the metal names
00:07:37 at the current levels?
00:07:39 - Yeah, because why I'm telling you this, Neeraj,
00:07:42 is if you can just take a cursory glance at the BSE,
00:07:47 sorry, NSE, Nifty Metal Index, Neeraj.
00:07:49 We're off a bit today.
00:07:50 Yesterday, it posted a fresh all-time high.
00:07:52 And we're breaking out of a small consolidation phase again.
00:07:57 Now, coming down to stock specifics,
00:08:01 I think JSW Steel looks interesting.
00:08:03 We haven't closed above 840, 445 yet.
00:08:06 Shale was looking promising.
00:08:08 It's in band.
00:08:09 Tata Steel is at an all-time high.
00:08:10 It's on a discount.
00:08:11 I don't think there's much to lose.
00:08:13 But JSW Steel, above 840, 445,
00:08:16 it's been consolidating, Neeraj, for almost 10 weeks now.
00:08:20 So this is something which looks promising.
00:08:23 - Yeah.
00:08:24 You know, since we're talking about metals,
00:08:26 look at what's happening with iron ore.
00:08:27 And we'll try and get an analyst in
00:08:29 to understand why you've seen such a slide
00:08:32 in iron ore futures in the Singapore market.
00:08:34 Of course, in the face of it,
00:08:35 it's because of weaker than expected Chinese demand.
00:08:39 And that's really perhaps, you know,
00:08:41 when Hemai is talking about this global overhang
00:08:44 and concern, the lack of speed with which China is recovering
00:08:49 or the lack of recovery, to put it simply,
00:08:53 is definitely one concern.
00:08:54 But Hemai, you know, back home and the focus on banks
00:08:57 and what we're seeing with not just the bank Nifty,
00:09:00 but its components as well.
00:09:01 In SBI, there's a Bernstein note on it,
00:09:04 which clearly is not too excited about SBI.
00:09:08 What do you make of SBI and the banking pack
00:09:11 and the kind of hit that we've seen today?
00:09:14 - Well, sometimes one gets the feeling
00:09:18 that it's more of a delayed reaction, action, reaction.
00:09:21 But yeah, just on Thursday,
00:09:24 last meeting session of the last week,
00:09:26 Tamanna, we posted a fresh all-time high.
00:09:29 We cool off.
00:09:30 Okay.
00:09:31 I think we are overbought on technical parameters.
00:09:35 This move from 740 to a fresh all-time high at 793 almost,
00:09:40 isn't justifiable because at the risk of getting
00:09:44 a bit technical, Tamanna, the daily MACD, RSI,
00:09:48 and stochastic, they're all in sell mode.
00:09:50 So frankly speaking, this move which happened
00:09:52 on the last seven trading session shouldn't have happened.
00:09:54 Having said that, high tops, high bottoms,
00:09:57 all-time high, clear blue sky, nothing much to worry about.
00:10:00 - Yes, and if a heavyweight stock like State Bank
00:10:03 goes from 600 to 792 in a matter of six weeks,
00:10:07 Tamanna, seven weeks, I'd say it's right for a correction.
00:10:10 So Bernstein, great, but sorry,
00:10:13 or whatever that brokerage is.
00:10:16 I'd say a small cool-off is coming in.
00:10:18 770 breaks, we'd see some slightly deeper correction,
00:10:22 but the overall structure, if you see,
00:10:24 still remains bullish.
00:10:25 Nothing has changed, or I don't expect anything radical.
00:10:29 - Right, so that's interesting.
00:10:32 It's also giving me the perfect opportunity
00:10:34 for sort of a programming reminder
00:10:37 that we're going to be speaking with Bernstein
00:10:39 and the author of that report in just a bit from now
00:10:41 to get their perspective on why.
00:10:43 But so that's Hemain's take on an SBI.
00:10:46 Hemain, I have to come in and ask you
00:10:47 about the Tata Group stocks,
00:10:49 and the kind of hit they've all seen.
00:10:51 Tata Chemical definitely receding,
00:10:54 the biggest pain point in that pack,
00:10:55 about 10% down, but the others as well.
00:10:58 Anything that you would pick up right now,
00:11:00 or would you wait for the dust to settle?
00:11:02 - I'd wait for the dust to settle.
00:11:05 Why, Tamanna, because firstly,
00:11:07 Tata Steel is in F&O Bank.
00:11:10 So the momentum is gone, it's finished.
00:11:14 So until it doesn't get out of the bank,
00:11:16 you can't do anything more.
00:11:17 And strangely enough, on Friday,
00:11:20 we saw the OI in Tata Chemical,
00:11:22 sorry, I'm talking about Tata Chemical,
00:11:24 not Tata Steel, Tamanna.
00:11:25 Tata Chemical is in bank mode.
00:11:27 And Tata Chemical, the OI increased by 18.2%.
00:11:31 Tata Power by 17.13, Tata Steel 11.18,
00:11:35 Indian Hotel 7%.
00:11:36 So Tata Com, C&R, so like you said,
00:11:39 virtually all the Tata Group stocks,
00:11:41 especially in the F&O segment,
00:11:43 had a huge increase in open interest.
00:11:47 And I think one gets the news that maybe
00:11:49 they might not have to come out with in IPO,
00:11:52 and maybe whatever the fundamental situation is.
00:11:56 And plus, the architect was Tata Chemical,
00:11:58 and that was in a ban mode.
00:11:59 So I'd say, wait for the dust to settle.
00:12:02 But if I were to pick and choose, Tamanna,
00:12:04 I still think that Tata Steel, Tata Power,
00:12:08 and Tata Com on declines remain technically positive.
00:12:12 - Okay, here in stay on so much more to talk about,
00:12:17 let's slip into a quick break.
00:12:19 And we'll come back and talk to a couple of experts
00:12:22 on metals and more.
00:12:25 Stay tuned to NDTV Profit.
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00:14:54 - Welcome back and watching India market close.
00:15:05 India financials, time to switch back
00:15:07 to the private sector banks downgrading SBI
00:15:11 to market perform.
00:15:12 That's the title of the Bernstein report out today on SBI.
00:15:16 It's interesting.
00:15:17 It's also coming on a day when anyway,
00:15:19 the banking space is having a tough day.
00:15:21 SBI specifically with a rap on the knuckles,
00:15:25 actually a little more than that in the Supreme Court
00:15:28 vis-a-vis the electoral bonds issue.
00:15:30 But Pranav Gundlapalli, senior research analyst
00:15:33 and author of this report from Bernstein
00:15:35 is with us now on NDTV Profit.
00:15:38 Pranav, pleasure is always to speak with you.
00:15:40 Can you elaborate why, I mean,
00:15:44 you speak about this in the context of valuations
00:15:46 of public sector banks running up massively
00:15:49 in the last two years,
00:15:50 that gap between private sector banks closing,
00:15:52 but why the concern on SBI specifically?
00:15:55 - Well, I think SBI is more of the proxy
00:16:00 for the public sector banks.
00:16:01 And I think this, whatever we wrote
00:16:05 on the valuations having run up
00:16:07 and the operating performance starting to inflect again,
00:16:11 I think that applies for the public sector banks
00:16:14 set in general and SBI, which is our coverage stock
00:16:19 remains a proxy for that set
00:16:21 and hence the downgrade to a market perform.
00:16:24 And moreover, it's a relative call
00:16:28 between the public versus the private sector banks
00:16:30 where we think the room for outperformance
00:16:34 that we saw in the last two years,
00:16:37 we think is largely limited from here
00:16:39 and therefore our call for switching
00:16:41 to the private sector banks.
00:16:43 - You know, one of the tailwinds perhaps,
00:16:46 Pranav, for public sector banks
00:16:48 and because the consistent push for public sector banks
00:16:53 in analyst after analyst that we speak to has been there.
00:16:55 So this is definitely a different take, I would say.
00:16:59 But one of the tailwinds for public sector bank
00:17:01 is that a lot of government spend, government capex,
00:17:04 government schemes are being funneled
00:17:07 and fueled through public sector banks
00:17:09 and that tailwind will remain, right?
00:17:11 What is, is it just the deposit growth
00:17:13 and pace of deposit growth that concerns you?
00:17:16 - So I think it's more of the two parts to this.
00:17:20 I think one is the growth part
00:17:22 and there is a profitability part.
00:17:24 On the growth front, yes, you know,
00:17:25 you'll have more of the government schemes
00:17:27 and government, you know, policies
00:17:29 and efforts being channeled through the public sector banks,
00:17:33 which has been the case, you know,
00:17:35 over the last five to seven years at least.
00:17:38 But what it has not translated into is any sort of reversal
00:17:43 in the market share loss on the deposit front.
00:17:45 To us, that's the big worry, number one.
00:17:48 And number two, the seemingly low LDR
00:17:51 doesn't provide as much of a growth runway
00:17:53 as what is probably expected,
00:17:55 because we see that the LCR ratios
00:17:59 for the public sector banks today
00:18:00 are just about 10 percentage points higher
00:18:03 than the private sector banks,
00:18:04 which indicates that they don't have, you know,
00:18:07 a whole lot of excess liquidity to dip into.
00:18:09 In other words, their deposit growth
00:18:11 will become a constraint even for the public sector banks,
00:18:14 so it's unlikely that they will outperform,
00:18:17 you know, private sector banks when it comes to growth,
00:18:20 even in the medium term.
00:18:22 So what you saw, therefore, in the last two years
00:18:25 would probably be an outlier,
00:18:27 and they would come back to being constrained
00:18:29 by the deposit growth.
00:18:30 - Interesting.
00:18:32 So Pranav, the estimates thus far,
00:18:34 Neeraj, good afternoon.
00:18:36 The estimates thus far that I see of various analysts
00:18:39 seem to be pointing towards
00:18:43 a very relatively much stronger growth
00:18:48 for SBI for the next two years,
00:18:49 despite the fact that you say
00:18:50 that they might face this constraint,
00:18:52 and the flip side, the kind of growth
00:18:55 that some of the private banks,
00:18:56 which have traditionally grown strongly,
00:18:58 but are showing in the first whatever few weeks,
00:19:01 even for the current quarter,
00:19:02 isn't anything to write home about.
00:19:04 So why shouldn't a bank which is trading at similar ROEs,
00:19:08 better growth rates than the private sector banks,
00:19:11 and cheaper valuations than the private sector banks,
00:19:13 be downgraded?
00:19:14 - Okay, see, I think two parts to this, right?
00:19:17 So we have a system-wide issue of deposit growth
00:19:21 being slower than loan growth.
00:19:23 That's a theme that is applicable
00:19:25 for both public and private sector banks,
00:19:27 and we saw the impact of that last quarter.
00:19:30 But if you look at the loan growth,
00:19:33 or deposit growth for the last quarter,
00:19:36 what we see is on the deposit front,
00:19:39 that gap remains as wide as ever,
00:19:41 in fact, widening as we speak.
00:19:43 And on the loan front, yes,
00:19:45 it's similar to the private sector banks,
00:19:48 but it's again, the gap is beginning to widen.
00:19:51 I think FY23 was probably the peak
00:19:53 where both the public and the private sector banks
00:19:56 saw the same loan growth rate.
00:19:57 But if you look at the latest quarter,
00:19:58 that difference is starting to diverge again.
00:20:01 So the deposit growth constraint
00:20:04 is hitting the public sector banks as well,
00:20:06 and you're seeing that widen again
00:20:07 when it comes to loan growth.
00:20:09 Now, more importantly, on the profitability front
00:20:11 is where we see a slightly different trajectory,
00:20:14 which is despite this excess liquidity
00:20:18 and also having a higher share of MCLR loans,
00:20:20 which should have benefited more
00:20:22 from increasing term deposits,
00:20:24 what we are seeing is that the interest spreads
00:20:27 for the public sector banks is actually narrowing
00:20:31 almost as fast, if not faster,
00:20:32 than the private sector banks.
00:20:35 In other words, they're having to price aggressively
00:20:37 to keep up that growth,
00:20:39 which doesn't help them on the margin front.
00:20:41 So it becomes a classical margin versus growth trade-off
00:20:45 for the public sector banks as well.
00:20:47 And therefore there is no room for EPS outperformance.
00:20:51 Remember, from FY22 until the third quarter,
00:20:55 we had a pace where the public sector banks
00:20:59 delivered a higher earnings growth
00:21:01 than the private sector banks.
00:21:03 We think that's going to inflect again,
00:21:05 and which is where, you know,
00:21:08 once you have a slower earnings growth kick in,
00:21:11 yes, the valuation is lower,
00:21:13 but that is reflective of the fact
00:21:15 that their deposit growth is slower
00:21:18 and they're losing market share.
00:21:20 So unless that changes,
00:21:22 there will be a permanent valuation gap
00:21:24 between the public and the private sector banks.
00:21:25 I don't think there's any scenario
00:21:27 where they converge on the valuation front.
00:21:30 - Interesting, interesting take.
00:21:32 And I would say contrarian to the kind of frenzy almost
00:21:37 for public sector banks.
00:21:38 Just one last point, Pranav,
00:21:40 and I know you said you chose SBI as a proxy for the space
00:21:45 and your take is comparative to private sector banks.
00:21:48 Nevertheless, today is a day when SBI has been in the news
00:21:51 for various reasons.
00:21:52 I'm just trying to understand
00:21:53 whether you see any overhang of this electoral bond issue
00:21:56 and the tight timelines that have been given at all for SBI?
00:22:01 - I think that should be a transient issue in my view.
00:22:04 I think we should see that going off as an overhang soon.
00:22:09 But I think the more fundamental issues
00:22:13 around the deposit growth and earnings growth,
00:22:16 disappointing was the private sector banks.
00:22:18 I think that's the bigger theme
00:22:20 that will drive even the short-term movements in the name.
00:22:23 - All right, thank you so much, Pranav.
00:22:27 Pranav Gundlapalli there,
00:22:28 Senior Research Analyst at Bernstein.
00:22:29 Always a pleasure to speak with you.
00:22:32 Their take is that the advantage
00:22:35 that public sector banks had in terms of valuation,
00:22:37 in terms of growth, may be now narrowing
00:22:40 and it might be time to revert to private sector banks.
00:22:45 Having said that, let's take a look at what's happening
00:22:47 in the markets at this point.
00:22:48 And it's been, I would say, a bit of a tough afternoon,
00:22:52 especially for banks, for financials.
00:22:54 That entire space has been under a bit of pressure
00:22:57 as well Tata Group Stocks is the other one
00:22:59 which has been seeing that kind of downbeat.
00:23:04 Healthcare on the other hand has been not too bad at all.
00:23:09 The other space to talk about definitely is metals.
00:23:12 And we reported just a short while ago,
00:23:14 you saw it on your screens as well,
00:23:16 about how iron ore futures in Singapore were over 7% down.
00:23:21 What is the reason A, B, impact for Indian listed companies
00:23:26 in the metal space?
00:23:27 Aditya Velekar, Senior Research Analyst,
00:23:29 Metals and Auto Access Securities
00:23:32 joins us now for more on that.
00:23:33 Aditya, great to speak to you here this afternoon
00:23:36 on NDTV Profit.
00:23:38 Let's begin by understanding what's happening.
00:23:40 Why this plunge?
00:23:40 Is it all because of China?
00:23:42 - Yes, iron ore prices, they have increased since,
00:23:48 because of before the Lunar holiday,
00:23:52 those iron ore prices have increased substantially
00:23:55 because there was a restocking by the Chinese steel mills.
00:23:59 Post the Lunar holiday,
00:24:00 the prices have been on a downward trend
00:24:02 and currently they are trading in the range of 120
00:24:06 to $150 per ton.
00:24:08 So, it's one of the reasons is now
00:24:12 that the port inventory of iron ore at China has increased.
00:24:16 And post the Lunar holiday,
00:24:18 the pickup in the steel production
00:24:21 or iron ore consumption has not increased.
00:24:26 And that is one of the reasons
00:24:27 why the iron ore prices have corrected.
00:24:29 As far as the Indian stocks are concerned,
00:24:32 directly it doesn't impact the Indian iron ore miners,
00:24:36 but eventually if the prices go on a correction mode,
00:24:40 then definitely the benchmark international iron ore prices
00:24:43 will have some bearing on domestic iron ore prices.
00:24:46 But per se, the domestic iron ore market is in a deficit
00:24:50 and the steel production is increasing in future.
00:24:54 And because of that,
00:24:55 the domestic iron ore prices will find some support
00:24:59 and that will be supportive for the iron ore players
00:25:03 like NMDC and other private players
00:25:07 like Lloyd Metals and Energy.
00:25:08 - So, the domestic demand will support maybe iron ore prices
00:25:13 sentimentally perhaps you'll see an NMDC react today,
00:25:16 a VEDL, all of these perhaps react sentimentally.
00:25:20 But on the flip side, Aditya, what about steel stocks?
00:25:24 This would be positive for them if a key,
00:25:27 raw material cools off in terms of prices.
00:25:30 Do you hope to see that impact?
00:25:31 - Of course, integrated players like Tata Steel and SAIL,
00:25:35 it doesn't have much bearing on the iron ore prices
00:25:37 because they have a raw material integration
00:25:40 with respect to iron ore.
00:25:41 So, it really doesn't matter
00:25:42 whether how the international prices moves there.
00:25:45 But for JSW Steel, they are dependent on iron ore.
00:25:49 So, for them, the price fluctuations will either increase
00:25:54 or compress their margins.
00:25:56 But as far as Tata Steel, SAIL and JSPL is concerned,
00:26:01 they have a substantial amount of integration
00:26:02 with respect to their own iron ore mines.
00:26:06 So, that fluctuation doesn't impact them much.
00:26:10 As far as in general steel stocks in India are concerned,
00:26:13 the prices are range bound.
00:26:15 Steel prices and then coking coal prices
00:26:17 are still at a higher level,
00:26:19 in the range of $290 to $300 per ton.
00:26:22 And they have corrected slightly from $330 to $300 per ton now.
00:26:27 But still, the spot margins are under pressure
00:26:30 and that may get reflected in the coming quarter.
00:26:33 So, margins may find some pressure for all these companies.
00:26:37 - Aditya, just one question.
00:26:41 What's the way ahead?
00:26:41 Because iron ore supply in Australia is picking up as well,
00:26:46 at a point of time when prices are starting to correct a bit.
00:26:49 Do you reckon a larger, steeper correction is in store?
00:26:52 - It all depends on how the Chinese economy in general
00:26:58 and strategically out of China.
00:27:00 - But thus far, the cues aren't turning out great, right?
00:27:03 They're trying multiple things, they are not working.
00:27:07 If the same status quo continues,
00:27:08 you reckon lower prices are in the offing?
00:27:11 - Yes, if they continue to export the steel
00:27:16 in the range of seven to eight million tons per month,
00:27:19 then definitely it's not a good sign.
00:27:21 If China produces steel and they keep on exporting steel,
00:27:25 then definitely the iron ore prices in India,
00:27:27 that will find some pressure.
00:27:29 That will be under some pressure.
00:27:30 So, it all depends how they manage
00:27:34 and produce how much steel they produce in future.
00:27:38 So, if they continue to keep on producing steel
00:27:41 and keep the exports elevated,
00:27:43 then yes, the prices will remain slightly under pressure.
00:27:47 - Got it.
00:27:48 Aditya, much appreciated.
00:27:49 Thanks for taking the time out and giving us your thoughts.
00:27:50 Really appreciate your time.
00:27:52 NMDC, Vedanta, some of the others,
00:27:56 some of the stocks that are looking
00:27:58 very wobbly in the session today.
00:28:00 Look at that, 4% off for NMDC.
00:28:03 Actually, Hemant, a quick 30-second view
00:28:05 because we have to hit that break.
00:28:06 But any views on NMDC?
00:28:08 It's trading at the lowest point of the day.
00:28:10 - Oh, no, it should take support at 2.22,
00:28:16 maybe a couple of days more.
00:28:17 - Okay, you're saying, okay,
00:28:19 couple of days more of a corrective move maybe,
00:28:21 but support at 2.22.
00:28:23 Thanks, Hemant, for that.
00:28:24 Stay tuned.
00:28:25 Viewers, we'll be right back.
00:28:26 Hemant Kapadia is with us.
00:28:27 We'll also get in Sudeep Bandopadhyay,
00:28:29 also get in the latest or the buy today,
00:28:33 sell tomorrow ideas,
00:28:33 or sell today, buy tomorrow ideas
00:28:34 from Hemant in a few minutes.
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00:32:06 - Welcome back, just about a half hour to go
00:32:16 for markets to close and it's not looking too pretty
00:32:19 to be honest, Sensex nearly 500 points down,
00:32:23 Nifty about half a percent in the red.
00:32:26 But let's take a look at what's happening on the F&OQs.
00:32:29 Agam is joining us.
00:32:30 Agam, are you seeing that bit of nervousness?
00:32:33 - We certainly are.
00:32:34 And it's evident in the kind of numbers with respect
00:32:37 to the options market.
00:32:38 I'll come to that in just a bit.
00:32:40 Let's take a look at how things are panning out
00:32:41 for the futures and for the Nifty, very little change.
00:32:46 Again, going back to the trend of seeing less than 1% decline
00:32:50 or an addition in open interest for the March future.
00:32:53 So overall, we have seen very, very little traction
00:32:56 say for a one odd day, one or two odd days
00:33:00 over the span of the last seven or eight trading days.
00:33:04 That said, we're still looking at a half percent cut
00:33:07 for the Nifty in country trading near days lows.
00:33:09 So some amount of weakness coming through.
00:33:11 What about the bank Nifty?
00:33:12 Let's pull that up.
00:33:13 And that is where we're seeing further unwinding
00:33:16 even as the index comes off by a whopping 1%.
00:33:19 A lot of weakness once again, on account of HDFC Bank
00:33:22 and ICICI Bank, and it's something which is weighing
00:33:25 on the markets.
00:33:27 Let's talk about the options market then.
00:33:29 As far as the Nifty goes currently,
00:33:31 continue to see writing around 20 to 500
00:33:34 specifically with respect to calls.
00:33:36 And from here on over the next maybe one or two days,
00:33:39 20 to 500 may just become a little bit of a resistance area
00:33:45 for the Nifty to move above.
00:33:47 If it does move above that substantially,
00:33:50 then that's when we start seeing a lot of covering
00:33:52 of those shorts and that could perhaps lead the Nifty higher
00:33:56 even from those levels.
00:33:57 This is of course your overall open interest distribution.
00:34:00 And as I've been suggesting, the most amount of OI
00:34:03 stands at around 20 to 500.
00:34:05 Let's move on and talk about stocks then.
00:34:07 And I reckon there's a lot more traction in stocks
00:34:10 in today's day of trade.
00:34:11 So Interglobe Aviation after Rakesh Gangwal goes ahead
00:34:15 and sells a little more stake in the company,
00:34:17 the stock is up around 4%.
00:34:19 ICICI Prudential, Siemens, all of them
00:34:22 looking at substantial gains.
00:34:23 In fact, Siemens has made a new life high right now.
00:34:25 And shorts for Apollo Tires and Tata Steel.
00:34:28 And on the other hand, in terms of stocks
00:34:30 which are seeing unwinding in trade,
00:34:32 we are looking at about a short covering
00:34:34 for Pidlite and Chola Finance.
00:34:36 But Tata Chemicals are now looking at a correction
00:34:39 of well over 10% as we speak.
00:34:42 SAIL and MGL among others which are also seeing unwinding.
00:34:45 So that's where we are seeing weakness.
00:34:48 But it's a fairly mixed market.
00:34:50 And even in the broader markets,
00:34:51 it's been more about stocks than the index itself.
00:34:55 And that perhaps is likely to be the case
00:34:58 over the course of the next few days and weeks as well.
00:35:01 - All right, thank you for that, Agam.
00:35:04 Now, let's take a look at one more space.
00:35:07 This morning you had life insurance companies in focus
00:35:10 after Fed data that came out over the weekend
00:35:13 was quite positive.
00:35:14 You're now seeing general insurance data coming in.
00:35:18 And among them, Star Health has seen a 19% uptick
00:35:22 in revenues year on year.
00:35:24 That's looking positive.
00:35:26 Overall, your standalone health players
00:35:28 seem to have done better than your general insurance pack.
00:35:32 So we look at some of that data coming in.
00:35:35 New India Insurance not responding too positively
00:35:39 to its set of numbers though at this point.
00:35:43 But we can just pull up a few more of them.
00:35:44 ICS and Lombard as well.
00:35:46 And look at what's happening to the stock price right now.
00:35:50 Let's also pull up the life insurance players
00:35:52 which had seen a positive start to the day at least,
00:35:55 but that seems to have reversed.
00:35:58 Look at LIC, near its day's lows, nearly 1% down.
00:36:01 SBI Life, they're doing well.
00:36:03 A clutch of brokerage notes today also looked at SBI Life
00:36:06 as one of the best performers in terms of the company
00:36:10 on the back of that life insurance data.
00:36:13 Joined now by Sudip Bandopadhyay of Indy Trade Capital.
00:36:16 He's joining in on the show.
00:36:18 Sudip, very good afternoon to you.
00:36:20 Great to have you on.
00:36:21 Since we're talking about insurance data,
00:36:23 general and life, just wanted your take on this space
00:36:26 and how interesting you find it.
00:36:28 Anything that you like over here?
00:36:30 I do like the life insurance space.
00:36:33 I think there is tremendous growth
00:36:36 of life insurance players in India.
00:36:39 We all know we're just scratching the surface
00:36:41 as far as insurance penetration is concerned.
00:36:44 And I think we have very well established industry now.
00:36:50 The private sector is very well established
00:36:52 and SBI Life has been our favorite for some time.
00:36:55 And we believe that SBI Life can be purchased
00:36:58 even at current levels.
00:37:00 Also, I must mention that normally this quarter,
00:37:03 February, March, Jan, Feb, March is a strong quarter
00:37:06 for life insurance industry.
00:37:08 The February numbers came and they were pretty impressive.
00:37:11 March numbers also should be good,
00:37:14 the way things are panning out.
00:37:17 So yes, life insurance is a sector
00:37:19 which we are looking at.
00:37:21 We believe there is a lot of merit
00:37:22 in acquiring life insurance companies for long term.
00:37:25 SBI Life is our favorite at this stage.
00:37:29 Okay.
00:37:31 Hemay, let me get your take on that.
00:37:32 Is SBI Life there on top of the charts for you
00:37:35 as far as the life players are concerned?
00:37:38 What about the general insurance players?
00:37:39 I think SBI Life is one of the better stocks,
00:37:46 among the better stocks,
00:37:48 simply because last month and this month,
00:37:50 we posted fresh all-time high.
00:37:52 Now, whether you look at ICICI Lombard, HDFC Life,
00:37:56 ICICI Pro, none of them have posted new highs,
00:38:00 but SBI Life has.
00:38:02 So, I mean, yeah, I think the technical setup
00:38:05 for ICICI Pro life insurance is also looking better,
00:38:10 but I think SBI Life leads the market
00:38:14 and I don't think that has changed.
00:38:15 So it looks good even now, Tamanna.
00:38:18 Okay.
00:38:19 The other one which seems to have taken a bit of a beating today,
00:38:22 aside of, of course, the INOX wins of the world,
00:38:24 which are down and some of the others like IFL Finance,
00:38:26 which are correcting, is Zomato.
00:38:28 Zomato has come off a bit in the session today,
00:38:31 about 3% off the lows of the day,
00:38:34 but certainly still lower.
00:38:35 Now, Sudeep, this whole talk of what if Flipkart
00:38:38 comes into this business and some others come into the business
00:38:40 and what it could do to the market shares
00:38:43 and the modes of some of players like Zomato,
00:38:46 are you worried as well,
00:38:48 or you think that companies will take it in their stride?
00:38:51 Neeraj, I think the companies will take it in their stride.
00:38:55 Yes, competition is intensifying.
00:38:57 You know, it's still a duo molly between Swiggy and Zomato,
00:39:01 if you look at the market,
00:39:03 the way they are servicing the market,
00:39:05 but this, you know, quick service,
00:39:07 quick delivery players, whether it's a Blinkit
00:39:10 or whether it's a, you know, Zepto
00:39:12 or it's, you know, the possible entry of Flipkart into that,
00:39:16 I think there will be a competition
00:39:18 because at some stage,
00:39:21 they are both trying to catch the same customer,
00:39:24 service the same segment,
00:39:26 so there will be competition.
00:39:28 But having said that,
00:39:29 I think Zomato is a very well established player
00:39:32 with great systems and processes, so is Swiggy.
00:39:35 So I think I would put Zomato and Swiggy
00:39:38 at a different place altogether.
00:39:40 We have seen the valuation upgrades
00:39:42 in the unlisted space which Swiggy is getting
00:39:45 and Zomato is getting in the listed space.
00:39:47 Today's correction may be on the back of the fact
00:39:50 that Flipkart's possible entry into somewhat similar space,
00:39:55 but I will still back Zomato or Swiggy
00:39:58 and not the potential entry of Flipkart in off-sheet.
00:40:03 Mm-hmm. Okay.
00:40:05 So that's on Zomato, a stock under pressure today.
00:40:09 Sudip is constructive.
00:40:10 Sudip, are you constructive on Indigo?
00:40:12 The stake sale getting absorbed very easily.
00:40:17 Travel is on a high.
00:40:18 Their numbers must be looking solid.
00:40:20 Crude isn't jumping up in any fashion.
00:40:24 Is interglobe aviation a good bet
00:40:26 or is the best behind us already?
00:40:29 Well, Neeraj, normally I don't like to buy airline shares
00:40:33 or recommend airline shares.
00:40:34 Globally, airlines have never done consistently well
00:40:37 beyond a limited period of time
00:40:39 other than from the Singapore Airlines.
00:40:41 So this is one space where I'm very, very careful.
00:40:45 But having said that,
00:40:46 I think there's a strong tailwind behind Indigo at this stage.
00:40:49 The way they have been able to garner market share,
00:40:52 I think it's amazing.
00:40:54 Last year, if you had asked me this question,
00:40:56 I would have probably said that Indigo will be under pressure
00:40:59 because Tata acquiring Air India
00:41:04 as well as Vistara and Air Asia,
00:41:07 combination of these three probably will give Indigo
00:41:10 a run for their money.
00:41:12 But somehow that hasn't happened.
00:41:14 Indigo is going from strength to strength.
00:41:17 And as you rightly said,
00:41:18 the travel has been a real boom in travel.
00:41:22 New routes have opened up
00:41:24 and Indigo has been undoubtedly the market leader by a mile.
00:41:29 Under the circumstances with oil prices remaining constant
00:41:33 and the way the airports and the flights are packed,
00:41:37 I think Indigo will do definitely well in March quarter.
00:41:40 They will come out with a very good set of numbers.
00:41:43 That's what is my expectation
00:41:45 as far as their March quarter numbers are concerned.
00:41:48 And you may pray in Indigo tactically.
00:41:51 I'm not saying it's a long-term bet,
00:41:53 but tactically one can buy Indigo for a short term
00:41:56 and hope to make some profit.
00:41:59 You know, the hunt for an Indian airline company
00:42:03 that could make profits has been on for a long time
00:42:05 and Indigo seems to have cracked the code.
00:42:08 So, which is why Interglow becomes an interesting play.
00:42:11 But let's talk a bit about Gale.
00:42:13 Gale is in focus today.
00:42:14 The company has entered into an MOU
00:42:17 with ONGC and Shell Energy.
00:42:20 Struck down about 3% now.
00:42:22 There was a con call earlier in the day as well,
00:42:25 where, you know, an analyst sort of call
00:42:28 where there was quite a few inputs coming in.
00:42:31 Mehika joins us to get the key details.
00:42:33 Yes, Mehika.
00:42:34 Yes, so first I'll talk about the MOU.
00:42:36 Now, Gale has entered an MOU with ONGC
00:42:39 and Shell India, Shell Energy India.
00:42:41 And they're going to explore opportunities
00:42:43 for the import of ethane and other hydrocarbon
00:42:47 part fields and also develop an evacuation infrastructure
00:42:50 at Shell Energy terminal in Hazira.
00:42:53 Now, there were multiple brokerage notes
00:42:55 that we also got on the Vijaypur plant visit.
00:42:58 First, we have CLSA, which has maintained a sell rating
00:43:01 at a target price of 188.55, a .55 rupees target.
00:43:06 While they do have a positive outlook
00:43:09 on the future opportunities,
00:43:10 they're a little, the sell rating is on valuation discomfort.
00:43:15 On visiting the plant, the plant is a core
00:43:18 to multiple businesses and will be operational
00:43:20 FY24 and will be responsible for 60%
00:43:23 of all transmission volume.
00:43:25 Now, the company also mentioned about certain projects
00:43:28 that it does have in focus right now.
00:43:30 And one is a small-scale LNG plant,
00:43:32 which is going to cater to the domestic LNG demand
00:43:35 that has been growing in India.
00:43:36 And other factors like gas, turbine, electrification,
00:43:40 and their LHC storage augmentation
00:43:42 is to benefit the companies at CLSA.
00:43:45 Then we have Motilal Oswal, which has maintained
00:43:46 a buy rating at the stock at a target price of 215 rupees.
00:43:50 They've remained positive in terms of the CAPEX cycle
00:43:53 that the company has unwinded.
00:43:55 They also mentioned about the small-scale LNG project,
00:43:57 which will improve the availability
00:43:59 in the under-predicated areas
00:44:01 that Gale does not currently have as much reach.
00:44:04 The company also announced a green hydrogen project,
00:44:06 which is to be commissioned this year itself in May of 2024.
00:44:10 And the management has planned a 20% hydrogen blending
00:44:14 in their CGD network in Indore,
00:44:17 while currently the rate is at 2%.
00:44:19 And lastly, the management also mentioned
00:44:21 that they're exploring ethane import at the Pata plant,
00:44:23 which is in line with the latest MOU.
00:44:25 Motilal finally expects a 14% EBITDA CAGR over FY24-26.
00:44:30 And this growth expectation is mainly on rising volumes
00:44:33 and the improved profitability
00:44:35 of their PetCam business as well.
00:44:37 Thank you for that, Mehika.
00:44:39 So, the stock not responding too well.
00:44:41 Let's just pull up the line chart of the day.
00:44:43 The stock about 3% down right now.
00:44:46 Sudip, do you like Gale?
00:44:49 I'm a little careful.
00:44:50 I think there are too many international pulls
00:44:52 and pressures on the gas prices at this stage.
00:44:55 You know, fundamentally, they're doing well at this stage.
00:44:58 And I think Motilal also in report,
00:45:01 which talks about 14% CAGR is realistic.
00:45:04 But the uncertainty regarding global oil prices,
00:45:07 I think is what kind of is a little bit of a concern.
00:45:12 Also, PNGRB, the regulator,
00:45:14 has been talking about keeping a cap on the local
00:45:21 domestic prices.
00:45:22 So, I think that also is an area which is a little gray
00:45:25 because the statement coming out of PNGRB
00:45:29 can be read both ways,
00:45:30 whether they want to contain the profitability
00:45:34 of these gas companies or not,
00:45:36 or whether they want to encourage the spread of,
00:45:41 usage of gas as energy across the country.
00:45:46 That also can be read.
00:45:47 And in that case, Gale has a stronger future
00:45:51 than what we are discussing today.
00:45:53 So, it is a bit confusing at this stage.
00:45:55 So, I will not probably jump to buy Gale right now.
00:45:59 Okay. What about you, Hemant?
00:46:02 Sudip is a little circumspect when it comes to Gale.
00:46:04 How do you place it?
00:46:07 Actually, for the time being,
00:46:09 it looks a bit overbought, Tamanna, on technical parameters.
00:46:13 The current rise, one second, hasn't been supported.
00:46:15 But actually, whatever I'm telling you
00:46:18 is based on the daily chart, Tamanna.
00:46:19 So, I wouldn't take even myself that seriously.
00:46:23 What I'm saying is things change.
00:46:24 I mean, today is Monday.
00:46:26 By Wednesday, Thursday, things might have changed.
00:46:28 But yeah, we've had a humongous run-up.
00:46:30 And we are taking a breather,
00:46:32 176, 166, two possible targets on the downside.
00:46:36 But yeah, I wouldn't short the stock.
00:46:38 But yeah, there is heaviness.
00:46:39 And that has resulted, the overbought situation
00:46:42 resulted in some price weakness.
00:46:44 The 55-day moving average is at 187.
00:46:47 Sorry, it's at 172.
00:46:49 So yeah, I would say, yeah, more or less,
00:46:51 I'd agree with what he's saying, absolutely.
00:46:53 All right. Stay on, please, Sudip and Hemant.
00:46:58 I just want to also talk a bit about
00:47:00 what the SEBI chairperson said today.
00:47:03 And her comments come on a day
00:47:04 when truly made-in-small-cap stocks are cracking.
00:47:07 Microcap 250 is nearly 2.5% down right now.
00:47:11 But SEBI chairperson Madhvi Puri Butch,
00:47:14 in a conversation with women journalists,
00:47:17 said that AMCs will have to disclose
00:47:19 the results of stress tests
00:47:21 for small and mid-cap mutual fund schemes by March 15.
00:47:25 She also talked about when T+0 settlement
00:47:29 will be a reality. Listen in.
00:47:32 We are a disclosure-based regime.
00:47:34 The objective is,
00:47:35 disclose so that the investor is an informed investor
00:47:39 and can take an informed decision.
00:47:41 So in terms of the disclosures,
00:47:44 there is a format of a disclosure
00:47:46 which has been approved, and that is mandatory.
00:47:49 That's not optional for any mutual fund.
00:47:52 They will disclose. I think the date is 15th March.
00:47:56 So you will see that.
00:47:57 We needed to give, you know, a couple of weeks.
00:47:59 What are you specifically looking for in those disclosures?
00:48:02 So the stress testing, so let me explain.
00:48:04 So what does stress testing mean?
00:48:07 What is the purpose of stress testing?
00:48:09 The purpose of stress testing is to assess
00:48:14 that if there is an adverse environment,
00:48:17 so first of all, there must be stress in a stress test.
00:48:20 Otherwise, what's the point?
00:48:21 So if there is an adverse environment,
00:48:24 and how is that adverse environment defined?
00:48:27 We have discussed with the industry
00:48:29 as saying that if there is a significant redemption pressure,
00:48:33 because what is the biggest risk
00:48:35 that a mutual fund scheme runs?
00:48:37 The biggest risk it runs is that
00:48:40 it is a daily redemption product,
00:48:42 and the underlying market may not be that liquid,
00:48:46 and therefore, how do you deal with redemption pressure?
00:48:48 That's the most important risk
00:48:51 that any mutual fund scheme runs.
00:48:53 So T+0 will come by the end of this month,
00:48:58 and we've already announced the calendar of options.
00:49:00 So this is optional T+0, end of this month,
00:49:03 and optional instantaneous in March of next year.
00:49:06 Now, one of the things which the industry,
00:49:12 when we were having these deliberations,
00:49:14 the industry asked us,
00:49:16 that look, we are already well ahead
00:49:18 of every other jurisdiction in the world with T+1.
00:49:21 So what is the need to move to T+0 or instantaneous?
00:49:26 Now, our answer to them was very simple,
00:49:30 and I can only tell you that the entire room,
00:49:34 and there must have been at least
00:49:36 more than a dozen stakeholders in that room,
00:49:39 instantly said, "Ah, that's why."
00:49:44 Okay, we agree with you.
00:49:45 So what was that "Ah, that's why" was,
00:49:49 we made a simple point.
00:49:51 We said, look, we know from where we sit
00:49:54 in our ISCO meetings, et cetera,
00:49:56 crypto is going to come.
00:50:00 Okay, correcting it to crypto as well,
00:50:03 but FBIs may or may not come,
00:50:04 some set of investors may or may not come,
00:50:06 and that's interesting.
00:50:08 You know, frankly, people who do BTSC trades
00:50:10 will not choose T+0.
00:50:12 People who are using the broker money
00:50:14 for margin calls will not choose T+0.
00:50:17 So there's a set of investors
00:50:18 who will completely stay out of this,
00:50:20 but India can do it.
00:50:23 India is wanting to do it.
00:50:24 What I really also like about the regulator
00:50:28 and the SEBI chairperson is the clarity of thought
00:50:30 and communication, and also forward-looking.
00:50:35 The fact that the market is also always on its toes
00:50:37 when the SEBI chairperson speaks
00:50:39 is, I think, a good thing as well.
00:50:42 - Sudip, just very quickly here,
00:50:44 I mean, this T+0, big deal, you think, or not quite?
00:50:49 - Well, not quite today,
00:50:50 because we're already at T+1,
00:50:52 but I'm not sure, you know, how that moves the needle,
00:50:57 you know, whether it'll be convenient or not.
00:51:00 And, you know, if all it will benefit,
00:51:04 I think, you know, it's a little doubtful,
00:51:09 you know, whether the incremental cost
00:51:12 and, you know, operational challenges
00:51:15 is worthwhile for this, you know, small change.
00:51:20 So I'm not very gung-ho on T+0,
00:51:23 and there'll be a lot of challenges of BTSC,
00:51:25 you know, STBT, and all these products,
00:51:28 and, you know, broker-funded products.
00:51:30 So let's see how things pan out.
00:51:33 We have optional starting in March, this March,
00:51:36 and compulsory, you know, thing happening from next March.
00:51:39 So we'll wait and watch and see how things pan out.
00:51:43 - Since it's optional, let's wait and watch
00:51:45 how many people indeed go for it.
00:51:47 But it's a good note to get in Hemant Kapadia
00:51:49 for his BTST ideas or STBT ideas, as the case may be.
00:51:52 Hemant, what would your recommendations be?
00:51:57 - Okay, firstly, Neeraj, I have a BTST
00:51:59 on AU Small Finance Bank.
00:52:02 It's from the rounding bottom,
00:52:04 it's a part of a buy call.
00:52:06 The mechanical indicators on the hourly charts
00:52:08 and not only the hourly charts,
00:52:11 but also the two hourly charts have turned positive.
00:52:14 They've gone across mobile.
00:52:16 So buy at around 584, stock loss of 579,
00:52:21 target of 594, risk reward ratio of 1 is to 2.
00:52:24 And STBT on DLF,
00:52:29 no one can sell DLF at one rupee higher at 912.
00:52:33 Stock loss of 917, target of 902.
00:52:38 Once again, risk reward ratio 1 is to 2,
00:52:41 five rupee stock loss, 10 rupee target.
00:52:42 BTST on AU Bank, STBT on DLF.
00:52:46 - All right, so AU Bank and DLF on Hemant's radar.
00:52:53 Sudeep, I want to know your take on the Tata pack.
00:52:56 And yeah, ending the day also with pain.
00:52:59 You're seeing that weighing down on the Nifty.
00:53:01 Tata Consumer down now by 3, 3.5%, Tata Steel.
00:53:05 Of course, Tata Chemicals, the one bludgeoned the most.
00:53:08 And we should pull up all of those companies here.
00:53:11 Do you reckon that the pain will continue?
00:53:13 Is this one day's reaction?
00:53:17 - I honestly think this is one day's reaction.
00:53:20 Like we have seen the reverse happening.
00:53:22 They were all moving up last week based on the assumed
00:53:28 theory that Tata Suns will get listed.
00:53:31 And hence Tata Chemicals will be the biggest beneficiary, blah, blah, blah.
00:53:35 The market kind of took up all the Tata companies.
00:53:38 And because the reports came that they are probably
00:53:42 not looking at listing, but some other structure to meet with the RBI requirement.
00:53:47 I think this crash or whatever you call it, we are seeing today.
00:53:51 Of course, Tata Steel has a different reason.
00:53:56 With global iron ore prices moving down the way they are.
00:54:00 And China's stimulus not really coming in.
00:54:04 There is a bit of a disappointment as far as the metals market is concerned.
00:54:08 And that is probably reflecting on Tata Steel.
00:54:12 And some of the other steel companies share prices.
00:54:14 - Tata Chemicals, I mean, Sudeep, the story has been the rage of town the whole of last week.
00:54:21 And today it's kind of seeing some bit of gravity.
00:54:24 Subject to when the IPO were to happen.
00:54:28 Is it pricing in some of those positives already or could there be more?
00:54:32 - It was priced in.
00:54:35 I mean, if you ask me Thursday, it was more than priced in.
00:54:38 And that's why the price went up where it went up.
00:54:40 And now with that not happening, the prices are coming down.
00:54:43 I think the company has improved its performance significantly.
00:54:47 But the caustic soda, soda ash bit, there was a challenge.
00:54:51 And we did see it in the last quarter's numbers.
00:54:54 We have to wait and watch.
00:54:56 I think even today, I think it's more than fully priced.
00:54:59 So I don't think we should rush into Tata Chemicals at this stage.
00:55:04 - Okay.
00:55:06 Don't rush into Tata Chemicals at this stage.
00:55:09 Some other stocks too have corrected a bit in the session today, I must say.
00:55:14 The NBCC, NCC, real estate, stroke, infrastructure pack
00:55:22 has really been beaten down today in shape, out of shape today.
00:55:27 So watch out for that one.
00:55:28 Amongst other things, GMM Fodler with this 4% correction at 1263
00:55:32 must be trading at multi-quarter lows, if you will.
00:55:35 So watch out for that one as well.
00:55:37 Let's see how they shape up.
00:55:39 Sudeep, are you in the market putting in money to work?
00:55:44 Or are you biding your time because you believe there'd be better levels?
00:55:47 I mean, if so, which pocket, which stock, which sector are you looking forward to?
00:55:53 - I am kind of biding my time.
00:55:56 In fact, this entire PFC, particularly, and I've been vocal,
00:55:59 I think I've spoken about it to you as well on your show.
00:56:03 The entire defense pack, the valuation was looking unrealistic.
00:56:09 So in the railway side, I think both are fantastic sectors.
00:56:13 The government of India is putting a lot of money behind both these sectors.
00:56:18 And justifiably so, defense make in India is a fantastic opportunity,
00:56:23 once in a lifetime opportunity for India and Indian companies.
00:56:27 But unfortunately, what happened is share prices went to stratospheric levels,
00:56:32 probably without having the right fundamentals in place.
00:56:36 I think the time correction or the logical correction,
00:56:41 what was supposed to happen is probably happening.
00:56:43 Some reports have started coming out, questioning the valuations.
00:56:47 And once they become a bit more reasonable,
00:56:51 I think these will be great buys for long term,
00:56:54 both on the railway side as well as the defense side.
00:56:57 Particularly defense electronics, shipyard companies,
00:57:01 I think they have a great, great future.
00:57:03 Okay, gentlemen, Hemen as well as Sudeep,
00:57:08 thanks so much for taking the time out and being with us.
00:57:10 Really appreciate your time this afternoon.
00:57:12 We are two minutes away from the markets to shut.
00:57:15 Let me just quickly talk about how the large caps are doing in a minute.
00:57:18 And Tamana will bring you up to speed with the broad end of the spectrum,
00:57:22 where usually the larger piece of the action is.
00:57:24 But today, the large caps are ending at the lowest point of the day,
00:57:27 the intraday of the Nifty very quickly, and then the heat map.
00:57:30 And just show you how it's turned out.
00:57:33 So the intraday of the Nifty will come up on your screen.
00:57:35 And as you can see, we are ending at the low point of the day.
00:57:38 So not a great sign, by the way, if you are bullish on the markets,
00:57:41 because it's not turned out to be a great day.
00:57:43 It wasn't expected to be a really good day,
00:57:45 but this is kind of turned out to be slightly more weak.
00:57:48 Bring up the heat map and show you what's moved and what's not.
00:57:51 And bring up the contributors list post.
00:57:53 They're a bit more red than green on the screen.
00:57:55 The set of losers remains the same,
00:57:57 except for the fact that SBI is now trading even worse than what it was,
00:58:00 and giving it company at ONGC and HDFC Bank too.
00:58:04 What's done well? Well, some bit of a defensive bend to that,
00:58:07 some life insurance, some FMCG.
00:58:09 So that's the long and short of it.
00:58:11 Just the contributors list before Tamannah brings us up to speed
00:58:14 with the broad end of the spectrum.
00:58:16 But I think you'll probably see HDFC Bank.
00:58:18 You'll probably see SBI.
00:58:21 The Nifty contributors will come up on your screen.
00:58:24 HDFC Bank, Reliance, SBI, ICICI Bank.
00:58:27 Bobbing between that and Infosys is the set of losers
00:58:31 hardly any gainers were talking about.
00:58:33 So a lot of red on the screen, Tamannah.
00:58:35 Absolutely. And I think if you look at the advance-decline ratios overall,
00:58:38 you'll see the kind of pain that we have seen through the day,
00:58:42 that gap widening right towards the end.
00:58:46 And Neeraj, we're talking about pain in the Nifty and the Sensex.
00:58:50 Just pull up the small cap, the micro cap, mid cap,
00:58:53 all of them have had a tough afternoon.
00:58:56 And you've seen that maybe not the mid cap so much,
00:58:59 but pull up the small cap index down 2%.
00:59:02 I want to just pull up the Nifty micro cap as well,
00:59:05 because you're understanding where really the pain is lying,
00:59:08 that nearly 2.5% down.
00:59:10 Insurance companies, one of the bright spots in SBI you spoke about,
00:59:14 maybe Narayana Hridale as well, apart from Max and Apollo,
00:59:21 which we also saw on the Nifty, Narayana Hridale up about 8% in trade.
00:59:26 But the big losers, Tata Chemical, we have to see how Tata Chemical closed.
00:59:30 Indian hotels, Tata Investment, a whole lot of them,
00:59:34 Tata Chemical shut about 11% down, Indian hotels about 3% down,
00:59:39 Rallis as well, we can pull up and see what happened to Rallis at the end of it,
00:59:43 Tata Investment after being stuck on the upper circuit for several days,
00:59:46 now on a lower circuit as well as Rallis.
00:59:50 IFL and JM Financial is the other two that I would mark out for stocks with a tough day,
00:59:56 won 7% down, IFL Finance, JM Finance nearly 10% down.
01:00:02 So those broad themes one reckons of finance taking a bit of a beat,
01:00:08 definitely continue, not too much in PSU, stocks overall as well,
01:00:14 apart from PSB, banks, a bit of profit booking coming in.
01:00:18 Most certainly. Let's see how this shapes up tomorrow, but for now,
01:00:22 from Tamanna and me and the team that has put India Market Close together,
01:00:25 thanks so much for tuning in.
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