#HDFCBank leads the #Nifty50 as the top gainer. What should shareholders do?
Get all your stock-related queries answered by our technical and fundamental guests with Alex Mathew and Smriti Chaudhary on Ask Profit. #NDTVProfitLive
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01:28 >> Good morning, you're watching Ask Profit on NDTV Profit.
01:32 I'm Smriti Chaudhary and with me is Alex Mathieu.
01:34 And for the next 30 minutes, we'll take all your stock related questions.
01:38 Now to write to us, you can either WhatsApp us on the number that's on your screen or
01:43 through any of our social media channels.
01:45 You can also write to us on the YouTube live chat and
01:48 we'll be tracking that as well.
01:50 Now before we get into the show,
01:52 let's quickly take a look at the markets and where they're currently at.
01:56 If you look at the benchmarks, it's a bit of a chop and
01:58 churn in the markets today.
01:59 The benchmarks are pretty much flattish as we speak.
02:03 However, on the broader end of the spectrum, if you look at the nifty mid cap and
02:08 nifty small cap, both are in red.
02:10 Nifty mid cap is down over a percent and nifty small cap 250 is down close to 2%.
02:17 As we speak, let's also look at the nifty 50 contributors and
02:21 see what's pulling the index down.
02:23 Now among the losers, we have ITC,
02:26 where British American Tobacco Company has said that they will sell
02:32 about 4% stake by the end of this month.
02:35 This is as per a Bloomberg report.
02:36 Then among losers, we have ICICI Bank and SBI as well.
02:41 However, on the gainers, we have HDFC Bank, that's the biggest gainer and
02:46 that's also the focus for today and we'll come back to it in just a minute.
02:51 RIL and TCS, both on the gaining end as well,
02:54 we're seeing a bit of a strong move from the IT companies.
03:01 If you look at the sectors as well, pretty much all the sectors are in the red,
03:05 except nifty IT, that's up about 7/10 of a percent.
03:09 On the laggards, we have nifty media that's down about 2%,
03:13 PSU Bank also down about 2% and
03:16 Realty, a lot of weakness, over 3% down as we speak.
03:20 But let's shift focus to the biggest gainer on the nifty 50,
03:25 which is HDFC Bank, Alex.
03:27 >> No, absolutely.
03:28 >> Yeah, what's moving the stock today?
03:31 >> So in fact, let's pull up the chart for the HDFC Bank and
03:36 in fact, it is the biggest gainer.
03:37 It is off the high point of the day, it was gaining about 2.5% earlier.
03:43 But then if you look at this and
03:45 if you also then pull up the intraday chart for the nifty bank,
03:49 you will notice a similar movement.
03:51 Of course, the nifty bank is currently trading with cuts of about a tenth of
03:55 a percent or thereabouts, and that move is being mirrored.
03:59 But let's talk about HDFC Bank and whether or not a bottom has been hit and
04:03 whether or not that is something that you should consider buying at this juncture.
04:07 Let's introduce our guest.
04:08 We've got Lancelot Dikuna, who is CIO at ValueX WealthConnect.
04:14 Lancelot, thanks so much for taking the time.
04:15 And we've also got Osho Krishan, who's a senior research analyst at AngelOne.
04:20 Today, because there is no immediate fundamental trigger,
04:23 I want to go to you first, Osho, on HDFC Bank.
04:26 It seems like the biggest mover in terms of weightage, of course,
04:32 but also 2% is not something that we've seen in terms of gaining terms
04:36 in the recent past.
04:38 What are the indicators telling you?
04:39 >> Very good morning, Alex.
04:43 Well, coming to the technical patterns of HDFC Bank,
04:47 then we have seen a kind of a decent recoup from the support zone of nearly 1380,
04:52 1400 odd levels.
04:53 Because if I will be plotting the charts historically also,
04:57 during the period of October 2022, it has seen a kind of a similar pattern
05:02 around the same zone of 1400.
05:04 And again, after a decent time consumption over a period of session,
05:09 we have seen a strong movement in HDFC Bank.
05:13 So here onwards also, there are some expectations that coming.
05:16 Henceforward, we can expect some kind of a strong movement.
05:20 But overall, if I have to tell you on the technical fronts,
05:23 then on the lower end, 1400, 1420 should be acting as the support zone,
05:28 while on the higher end, the first resistance is placed around 1480.
05:32 So until we do not surpass the zone of 1480,
05:37 the momentum is likely to be on the sidelines.
05:39 There can be some further consolidation that can be seen in this counter.
05:43 But once we surpass 1480 on a decisive manner,
05:46 then from there onwards, we can witness a strong recovery in this counter
05:50 for the higher levels of 1540, 1560 on immediate basis.
05:55 Lancelot, the question marks about the deposit book
05:59 and the pace of growth of the lending book have not gone anywhere.
06:03 In fact, there are a few research reports that have come out
06:06 that suggest that the bank will have to grow its lending book only at about 12%
06:12 or thereabouts, and its deposit book by 20%.
06:15 If it has to correct the imbalance of the asset liabilities
06:20 in three to four years' time, in three years' time.
06:22 So how do you look at the fundamentals at this juncture?
06:26 Well, I think the bank management has also indicated that
06:30 they are addressing the issue.
06:33 And probably over the next one or two quarters,
06:36 we will see the steps that they have taken and how that is playing out.
06:41 That will give a much better indication as to how this adjustment will happen.
06:45 But I think that it's much easier to adjust the lending side in terms of,
06:51 you know, one can easily expand the book,
06:54 but given that the management commentary was more on the fact that,
06:59 you know, the risk in the lending side has actually increased
07:02 and which is why they were looking at paring down the lending.
07:06 As far as the liability side is concerned,
07:08 I think they will be able to raise resources.
07:12 So I am quite optimistic that HDFC Bank,
07:15 we will see the impact of the measures taken by them
07:17 over the next one or two quarters,
07:19 and that will confirm that it will be back on a growth trajectory.
07:23 So I think, you know, there are two sides to this,
07:27 and I am more on the optimistic side.
07:30 So I think one should look at this as a more positive thing.
07:33 Once we know the next quarter, how the impact is,
07:37 we will get a much better sense of where this is moving.
07:40 But quick answer, would you buy at this point
07:43 or would you wait for the quarter results before you take a call?
07:47 So I would actually buy at this point,
07:50 and I have been, you know, we have been buying even earlier
07:53 because post the last quarter results,
07:55 the management did outline out the measures that they are taking
07:59 in terms of, you know, expanding into rural India, opening new accounts.
08:03 They have taken several measures in terms of branch expansion,
08:08 which is actually going to lead to greater amount of liabilities
08:14 being raised in those areas.
08:16 And I think it's a matter of time, you know, post-March,
08:19 we will start to see when the next quarter results are announced,
08:22 you will start to see the positive performances coming in from that space.
08:27 And that's when, you know, I think people would then start to buy into it.
08:31 So it's on a valuation basis, it's available at a reasonable valuation
08:36 in terms of about two and a half times its book value,
08:39 which is quite reasonable for a bank of HDFC size and capabilities.
08:46 All right. Thank you, Mr. Dukuna and a very good morning.
08:50 Good morning to you, Osho, as well.
08:51 Let's dive into the questions.
08:53 The first one is from Satya and he's talking about TTK prestige.
08:58 Now, Osho, TTK prestige has been on a downturn.
09:02 If you look at the six months performance, it's down about 12 percent.
09:06 And he has bought the stock and he wants to know if he should continue holding onto it.
09:10 Now, he hasn't given a buy price for the stock.
09:14 But would you suggest getting out of the stock?
09:17 And what are the what's the level that you should watch out for?
09:22 Very good morning, Smriti.
09:23 We're looking at the technical chart of TTK prestige.
09:26 The counter is into a corrective phase,
09:28 so it has not recouped from a very strong resilience levels of nearly 780, 790 odd levels.
09:36 So overall, the counter is still facing some kind of selling pressure
09:40 and one can witness further correction towards the zone of 680 on immediate basis.
09:45 So for an investment point of view,
09:47 it is not very much in line with my buying approach.
09:51 I will ask to avoid this counter for the time being.
09:54 One can definitely relook in their investments once the counter moves above the zone of 800
10:01 for short term or medium term investment.
10:03 But as of now, looking at the overall sentiments and overall parameter development,
10:07 one should definitely try to stay sidelines with this counter.
10:10 OK, coming back to your Osho on sale, it's down about 3.8 percent.
10:16 And in fact, the metal counters have been under a little bit of pressure.
10:19 But this is a question from Mohit and he's looking at a short term strategy.
10:23 He has bought near levels of 40.
10:28 So I guess he's bought quite a while back.
10:32 But for the short term, he's looking at a strategy.
10:34 So he's hedged this position with a call that he's taken at a strike of 148 at 1.5.
10:45 So he's asking whether he should hold both delivery and exit from both the trades.
10:51 See, overall, first I will be talking about the technicals.
10:53 They're not technical.
10:54 The counter is looking very positive.
10:56 It is maintaining the higher lows pattern on the daily chart.
10:59 So as of now, until 120 levels is intact in this counter,
11:03 there is no sign of caution that should be looking in from short to medium term perspective.
11:07 But coming from the options front, the strike which he has taken is very deeply OT out of
11:13 the money.
11:14 So I'm not expecting being this counter having that much of average trading movement that
11:19 can be seen in the coming next 10 to 15 days.
11:22 So I will advise to exit from the options position and keep holding the delivery position
11:28 for the time.
11:28 All right.
11:29 Got it.
11:30 Now, Mr. Dikuna, we have another question in the banking space, which is Ujjivan Small
11:37 Finance Bank.
11:37 This one's from Dr. J.
11:39 And they've already bought in the stock.
11:41 I've asked them about the buy price of the stock.
11:43 But from a longer term perspective, how does the counter look?
11:48 So Ujjivan Small Finance Bank is operating in a niche segment.
11:54 And at the moment, because of the correction you've seen, you've seen the prices and the
12:01 valuation correct.
12:02 But instead of investing in small niche banks, it is probably a better option to look at
12:08 investing in some banks like, say, IDFC First Bank, where the bank sizes are larger and
12:14 they have a lot more ability to withstand difficult conditions or different conditions.
12:20 And you would be able to have the similar kind of growth, but with a lot less volatility.
12:26 So one should look at moving from, say, something like an Ujjivan Small Finance Bank to maybe
12:33 an IDFC First Bank.
12:34 Another question for you, Osho.
12:37 And this is, again, a short term strategy.
12:41 This is from Sayyam Pancholi, who's writing in from Dungarpur.
12:45 And he's asking about ITC, which has been in focus for various reasons.
12:50 And Smriti pointed this out, a BAT looking to sell stake in the company.
12:54 But we've got Sayyam, who's got a March call, 425 strike at 6.5.
13:02 What should the strategy be for this particular trade?
13:08 See, again, ITC being a very heavyweight counter, and it does not have a very strong
13:13 average trading volatility.
13:14 So that means it's a very low beta counter.
13:16 So I'm not expecting 425 to be seen in another couple of trading weeks.
13:21 Better to exit the positions?
13:22 Yes, you can definitely see some kind of up move near about 415, 412 can be seen as the
13:29 immediate spot zone.
13:31 But for the time being, until it sustains above the zone of 400, you can hold your 425
13:40 call options.
13:40 But I'm not looking for a very positive outlook from here onwards.
13:43 There can be some less loss that you can have.
13:47 But overall, it's better to exit from the position in the coming two to three trading
13:51 days, looking at the overall sentiments or the development that can be seen in ITC.
13:56 All right, got it.
13:57 Next up, we have a question on Jain Irrigation.
14:01 Mr. Dukuna, if this count is part of your coverage, we have a question from Prashant.
14:08 And they bought the stock at 67 apiece.
14:12 From a longer term perspective, fundamentally, how does the stock look?
14:16 Well, I think it's a bit difficult stock to buy into, because while the irrigation space
14:24 might seem attractive from a macro perspective, being able to generate profits from this space
14:30 is very, very difficult.
14:31 And what we've seen is that companies have-- this company has struggled in patches.
14:38 So during a phase when the rural India is doing better, there's a lot of scope for expansion.
14:46 But during a phase when we are seeing all the news that we are getting is talking about
14:50 a slowdown in rural India and rural spending.
14:53 So I think things are not going to look up for a while.
14:59 And one should avoid staying invested or maybe even avoid buying into this counter for the
15:05 next couple of years.
15:06 Fair point.
15:07 Lancelot, as well as Osho, we have to step into a very quick break.
15:11 Viewers will be back on the other side to take some more of your questions.
15:13 So do stay tuned.
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19:31 (upbeat music)
19:34, (upbeat music) Hi, welcome back. You're watching Ask Prof. D.
20:04 Now, we don't often do this, but I'm gonna take this
20:09 because our next viewer, Rajan, has pointed out
20:13 that he doesn't often, he says he very rarely invests
20:17 in penny stocks, and whatever he's invested in
20:20 is so far quality scripts.
20:23 It's just that one of his friends suggested
20:26 that he buy these two counters, and he did so.
20:28 So he's bought Seacoast shipping for a price of six rupees,
20:32 and he's got 1000 shares, and he's got GTL Infra
20:36 at a price of 2.35 rupees, 5000 shares.
20:39 I'm quite certain, Lancelot, that you have no coverage.
20:43 So Osho, just in the off chance that you have anything
20:47 to glean from the charts, what is a strategy
20:52 that this gentleman can use?
20:54 - See, also, but we even, we do not track
20:59 or suggest penny stock to any of the investors,
21:02 but as the question is only on the penny stocks,
21:05 so firstly, a GTL infrastructure,
21:08 if I have to see the technical charts,
21:10 then these counters basically do not have
21:13 or follow that much of technicality developments
21:16 because overall, there will be a strong circuit movement
21:19 that can be seen.
21:20 So it won't be suffice for me to have
21:22 a very strong explanation depending
21:24 on the technical parameters, but just for a sake,
21:28 I would try to find the support and resistance.
21:31 For GTL, it is approximately around 1.3 on the lower end
21:34 and on the higher end, approximately 2.4
21:37 should be acting as the resistance,
21:39 but I do not have any strong conviction
21:42 on the technical developments in these kind of counters.
21:45 - That's a very fair point to make,
21:46 but Lancelot, without going to the details
21:49 of these two counters, I guess to a certain extent,
21:52 the reason why people jump into counters like this
21:55 are names like Vodafone India, or Vodafone Idea,
21:59 rather, which was trading at what,
22:01 seven rupees or thereabouts.
22:03 SpiceJet in the past has gone to single digit.
22:06 Suzlon has gone to single digit.
22:08 For the longest time, it was languishing there,
22:10 but it moved out.
22:11 And you've been looking at the markets for so long.
22:15 What is the kind of strike rate that someone would have
22:18 in a counter that has fallen all the way down
22:20 to single digit?
22:21 - Yeah, I think the strike rate,
22:24 it's all speculation basically,
22:26 and it's very rare that a company
22:29 which was in single digit really gets turned around
22:32 and then comes back on stream.
22:34 So even today, I know that a company like Jet Airways
22:37 is still trading, and there have been so many attempts
22:40 to try and revive Jet Airways,
22:43 but what you see is that very few of these really succeed.
22:48 So I would put it this way,
22:51 that the strike rate could be as low as maybe one is to 20.
22:57 So it's very difficult to really predict what can happen
23:01 because these are totally like lost bets.
23:06 And maybe a Vodafone might turn around,
23:08 maybe like a Yes Bank did turn around
23:11 because State Bank of India took a stake
23:13 and they were bailed out.
23:15 But it's difficult to predict these kinds of moves
23:18 and these kinds of investments.
23:19 So I think as an investor, one should stay away,
23:24 but if people want to speculate,
23:25 I think there are other ways of speculating
23:28 where maybe you can enjoy the speculation.
23:32 But-
23:33 - Fair point.
23:33 (laughs)
23:34 That's a fair point, Laszlo.
23:36 Yeah.
23:37 - All right.
23:38 The next talk that we're talking about is Paisalo Digital.
23:41 This one's on YouTube by Mahmadi.
23:44 I hope I'm saying that correctly.
23:46 Now, we've just got news on this one,
23:49 on this particular counter.
23:50 Now, Hycote has given a notice to the RBI
23:54 to probe the company's unfair lending practices.
23:57 And if we can pull up the stock,
23:59 yeah, it's down 15% as we speak.
24:02 Lancet, do you have coverage on this stock?
24:05 - I mean, I did look at it when it had got listed,
24:09 but we haven't really actively followed it
24:11 because we felt that these lending companies,
24:15 especially the digital lending companies,
24:17 there's not really much of transparency
24:20 in the procedure and what they've been doing.
24:23 So it's difficult to really understand
24:25 and see their business models in detail.
24:27 And hence, we've stayed away from these companies.
24:31 - That's a fair point.
24:32 Sikandar Sandal is writing from Ludhiana in Punjab
24:35 and asking about IRCTC, which he's bought at a price of 1,034.
24:39 A lot that's in the work's land slot on the fundamentals
24:42 in terms of expansion and the plans
24:44 for tying up with other brands as well.
24:47 Would you say that it's a hold for the long-term?
24:50 - Yes, I think one can look at holding IRCTC
24:53 because number one, they are an exclusive agency
24:56 for the Indian railways.
24:58 And with the kind of trust that the government
25:01 has put on improvement, even in the quality of the railways,
25:06 I think IRCTC will play an important role
25:10 in ensuring that the passenger experience is good.
25:13 And that will ultimately lead to profitability for IRCTC.
25:19 So while the growth story has been there,
25:21 I think those valuations are a little bit stretched
25:23 at this point in time,
25:24 because a lot of these announcements will take,
25:27 you know, maybe two to three years
25:28 before they can actually start generating extra profits.
25:32 But the stocks seem to factor in all these things upfront
25:36 and that gets discounted in the price.
25:38 - I got it.
25:40 Now, quick last question, Osho.
25:42 This one's from Bharat.
25:43 They're talking about Jio Financial.
25:45 Now, they want to buy the stock at the current market price.
25:48 However, would you suggest waiting
25:51 and maybe some correction in the price?
25:54 - See, overall, there has been very strong movement
25:57 in Jio Financials in the last two to three trading weeks,
26:00 specifically in this calendar year.
26:03 So obviously, looking at whatever technical development
26:06 has been there on the technical charts,
26:08 I'm expecting that this will continue,
26:10 but obviously, there will be a cycle
26:12 of higher highs, higher lows.
26:13 As of now, on the downside, 310, 320
26:17 should be the apt zone to accumulate this counter,
26:20 while on the higher end, 380, 85
26:22 should be seen as the immediate target
26:24 for short to medium term timeframe.
26:26 - All right, and I guess that answers
26:28 Anurag's question also from Nagpur.
26:30 Osho, as well as Lancelot, thank you so much
26:32 for taking the time and for speaking to us on Ask Profit.
26:35 Pleasure having you on the program.
26:37 Viewers, well, we answered as many questions,
26:40 got as many questions as possible answered today,
26:43 but some of you, of course, are not going to be happy
26:46 with your questions not being answered,
26:48 but hopefully, you've benefited from the stocks
26:51 that we discussed today.
26:52 That brings us to the end of this particular program.
26:54 From Smriti and myself and the team
26:56 that put this show together,
26:57 thank you so much for watching.
26:58 This is NDTV Profit.
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