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00:00For more, we can speak to our foreign editor, Ketivan Gorgiastani.
00:03Hello to you, Ketivan.
00:05If the U.S. were to withhold these offensive weapons that it would be sending to Israel,
00:10how much of a blow would that be for Benjamin Netanyahu?
00:13Well, so far, at least according to Israel's chief military spokesman, this would not prevent
00:20them from carrying out their operation in Rafah or elsewhere.
00:23That was the statement.
00:24But that's in the short term.
00:26It probably doesn't impact Israel too much.
00:29But it is a very serious signal from the United States, which is by far the larger
00:35supplier of military aid to Israel.
00:38As we see on this graphic here, the U.S., in the period between 2019 and 2023, amounted
00:46to 69% of Israel's weapon, way in front of Germany, which is the second supplier.
00:54And suspension of military aid to Israel hasn't happened in more than 40 years.
00:59The last time was back during the Reagan years, when he suspended or banned the sale of cluster
01:05bombs.
01:06Now, it has to be said also that U.S. military aid to Israel is very diverse.
01:13Back in 2016, the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding covering the period between
01:182018 and 2028, and they agreed on $38 billion in direct military aid, $33 billion in grants
01:28that would help the Israelis buy U.S. military equipment, and $5 billion for missile defense
01:34systems, of course, the most famous one being the Iron Dome.
01:39And that is something that Joe Biden made very clear in his interview that he would
01:44not touch.
01:45That being said, we are not walking away from Israel's ability to defend itself.
01:49We're walking away from Israel's ability to wage war specifically in Gaza, and they're
01:56not even considering withholding all offensive weapons.
02:00They're really focused right now, at least, on those heavy bombs that cause extreme damage,
02:05extreme casualties in very densely populated areas like Gaza.
02:11So far, they're not considering stopping, for example, tank ammunition or other types
02:16of artillery.
02:17So, right now, it's still a very small sliver of the U.S. military aid to Israel, but the
02:24signal that it sends is very, very important.
02:28Later this Friday, the U.S. Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is going to submit a report
02:32to Congress about the conduct of Israeli troops in Gaza.
02:36Any idea what it might say?
02:38Well, the State Department has to give its assessment on two things.
02:43One is whether Israel followed international law and U.S. law in how it used U.S. weapons
02:49in Gaza, and the other is whether it violated humanitarian law by possibly impeding the
02:55flow of humanitarian aid in Gaza.
02:59And it's expected to include an assessment on Israel, but also other countries that are
03:03currently using U.S. weapons in different conflicts around the world.
03:08There's already been a delay, it was supposed to be given on Wednesday.
03:11We're expecting it to be delivered today.
03:15That's still not clear.
03:16And it shows the difficulty for the Biden administration when it comes to Israel and
03:22their assessment.
03:24And the reporting, according to Axios, is that this report is going to be highly critical
03:32of Israel's conduct of its war in Gaza.
03:35It will stop short of saying that Israel violated humanitarian law or U.S. law or international
03:41law.
03:42And that's because they need to strike a careful balance.
03:45If they say that Israel didn't do anything wrong, that would spark a backlash, especially
03:50from the left wing of the Democratic Party that is already asking for the U.S. to condition,
03:56at least if not halt, all U.S. weapons going to Israel.
04:01There were more than 80 Democrats on the Hill who wrote a letter to Joe Biden to say
04:07that they believe that there was evidence that Israel was at least violating humanitarian
04:12law.
04:14But if Joe Biden and the administration decide that, yes, Israel did violate, whether it's
04:20international law or U.S. law, then that could put more pressure on Joe Biden to go further
04:28on stopping those weapons from being sold to the Israelis.
04:32There are existing U.S. laws that ban the U.S. from selling weapons to countries that
04:37are accused of violating humanitarian law.
04:41And it could also politically be a problem, because then there would be a backlash from
04:46Republicans who are already very critical of the halt in those mega bombs, and also
04:53the middle, the pro-Israeli Democrats who are not seeing this as a good sign for the
04:59U.S.-Israeli relationship.
05:00All right, Karevan, thank you very much.
05:02Karevan Ghorjasani, our Foreign Editor.