Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00 Amar, good morning. Thanks for joining in. What do you make of the market action? We
00:04 might have a bit of a green at open. Would you use that to build on or is this a sell
00:10 on rise market?
00:11 Yeah, very good morning and thank you for having me on the show. So if we look at the
00:17 intensity of the fall and also if you look at India bigs, so these are very, I would
00:23 say clearly telling that they could be further selling as well because most of the large
00:31 caps I would say the heavyweights, we are seeing some sort of, I would say consolidation
00:36 and some sort of weakness in some of the stocks. But the good point is that Nifty is approaching
00:41 a very crucial support zone. So if we go back and see Nifty used to bounce back from almost
00:48 21,700, 21,800 levels. So that was a zone of major and crucial support, which Nifty
00:53 has respected and held on to. And if we look at the recent flow that is yesterday's flow,
01:00 that was around 21,932. But I would say that if I look at the short term trend, that is
01:08 definitely negative. If I look at the intermediate term trend, that is more or less consolidating
01:13 with a slight negative bias. And also if you look at the derivatives data, we see that
01:17 there's been a short buildup happening with significant OI over the last couple of days
01:23 and yesterday in particular. But I would say that we'll have to watch out for the level.
01:28 So 21,600, 700, that's a very crucial zone of support for Nifty and the short term trend
01:35 remaining bearish. So if there is a bounce back, there's a high possibility we would
01:40 witness some fresh selling coming into the markets. Till the time we don't see a pull
01:45 off in India Wix. And yesterday's high of India Wix is also going to be a very important
01:49 level to watch out for. So I would say that one needs to be slightly cautious. The short
01:54 term trend definitely remaining bearish. We are moving close to support level. So there
01:58 could be a bounce back. Whether this bounce back holds is something we'll have to watch
02:02 out for.
02:03 Okay. And Avinash, just before we come to you, Ahmad, let's just get your stock ideas
02:09 done as well. What is it that you're recommending?
02:13 I would say one stock one can definitely look at is Supreme Industries. This is one stock
02:21 which has, I would say, consolidated. It was in for consolidation for a very long time.
02:26 And then we saw the stock breakout, currently it's around 5,400 odd levels. So any pullback
02:31 in this stock is a buying opportunity with an upside target of 5,600. And crucial support
02:37 for the stock is seen around the 5,200 level. So this is one stock one can look at. And
02:43 the other stock to look at is Godrej Consumer Products. So this is again one stock which
02:50 was in for consolidation, has breached crucial zone of resistance. And also what we're seeing
02:54 is that volumes have been significantly higher over the last few trading sessions, but only
02:59 on a pullback. So somewhere around 1280-1300, that's a good level for entry because the
03:06 stop loss needs to be below 1250 levels. And on the upside, the target is around 1430.
03:11 So this is the second stock one can look at.
03:13 Good morning. Thanks for joining in. Do you feel like there could be a pullback around
03:19 the corner? The last few days have been pretty rough for the street. Technically, of course,
03:25 we look ripe for a little bit of a pullback on the street. But fundamentally, do you feel
03:29 like there's enough reason to go out and buy?
03:34 Is this question for me, Samira?
03:36 Yes, Avinash.
03:37 So basically, see, I think you're going to see a very volatile market. I think markets
03:42 are now going to be dictated purely by electoral trends. And I think my sense is that we could
03:48 see a lot of volatility considering the kind of wicks we saw yesterday. Typically, in the
03:53 month just ahead of the election result, I would be a little cautious in entering any
03:58 stock in a very relatively big way. But I think if we at all get some further downside,
04:03 then I think one could start nibbling into the large cap names, some names like ICICI
04:08 bank, Axis Bank, or typically even the PSU banks like typically a Bank of Baroda. My
04:14 sense is that these offer a lot of long term value. And I think once the election result
04:18 is out, we should definitely see a strong bounce. But it all depends on the margin of
04:22 victory. I think the markets are now discounting the number of 400, possibly a figure of 350
04:28 to 370 if it does come in. I think the markets will definitely see a decent amount of re-rating.
04:33 So I think this is a time where one has to take a calculated risk and actually bet on
04:36 the large caps. We would stay away from the mid caps.
04:42 Just a quick look at the first cut of pre-open rates coming in and of course, with the caveat
04:47 that these will settle. What's catching my eye, BPCL about 6% up, Sriram Finance doing
04:52 well, SBI, Coal India, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finance, all of these on the winning side.
04:57 Let me just start with BPCL. Avinash, your take on the numbers, the results that came
05:02 in, the bonus issue was something that had the stock buoyant through a pretty rough week.
05:10 Would you say that that uptrend continues for you as far as the BPCL is concerned?
05:15 I think, Tamanna, if you look at the BPCL numbers, there has been a big exceptional
05:20 gain of almost 1600 to 1700 crores. So if you strip it off, I think numbers have been
05:26 slightly in line, but I think not very strong in that sense. The bonus issue is a surprise
05:31 because their comparable peer HPCL has given a 1st to 2nd bonus. So I think the bonus has
05:36 been more lucrative. But I think going forward, hopefully crude prices remain soft. And considering
05:42 that now the Iraq-Israel issue is more or less cooled off, I would not be surprised
05:47 that in the coming year, GRMs could improve. And I think you're seeing a lot of good demand
05:51 from sectors like automotive, aviation. So I think to that extent, I think definitely
05:56 it looks a decent bet if one were to look at the next 6 to 12 months. But yes, I think
06:00 numbers were not very impressive. I think in line and largely because of the exceptional
06:04 gain, you saw a big jump in the profit.
06:07 Amar, what about on the charts, BPCL and HPCL?
06:12 So if you look at HPCL, we are seeing some sort of consolidation there. And if I look
06:22 at the stock, it is witnessing some sort of profit booking as well. And because on the
06:27 weekly charts, it clearly shows that a top is being formed for this particular stock.
06:32 And on the downside, the stock has got good support coming around the 470-480 levels,
06:38 whereas intermediate term trend, I would say, is more or less consolidation.
06:42 Talking about the other stock, which you mentioned, BPCL, if I look at BPCL, that is Bharat Petroleum,
06:49 it is having a similar structure as compared to HPCL. And again, it is also witnessing
06:53 some sort of consolidation. So I would say that it's more of a trendless phase for both
06:58 of these stocks. BPCL has got good support coming around the 550-560 zone, whereas on
07:06 the upside, it seems to be capped around the 630 zone. So it's more of a consolidation
07:11 for both of these stocks.
07:15 So that's BP, HP for you. And interesting moves there. The other one is Asian Pains.
07:22 And Jefferies has come out of the notes saying that they believe that this is a conviction
07:26 underperformed. And after the 4.5% gas yesterday, is there more in store is the question. Now,
07:33 Neeraj, would you be a buyer at the dips or do you believe that there could be pain ahead
07:39 for an Asian Pains investor?
07:42 I think my sense is, Neeraj, it's better to wait for a couple of quarters because competition
07:47 in the paint market has intensified. In fact, now there are two or three new players. And
07:52 looking at the recent entrant, that is Grasim, I think my sense is that some sort of price
07:57 damage in terms of margins has already started getting realized on Asian Pains numbers. But
08:02 I think you will probably see a bigger impact in the first half of financial year FY 24-25.
08:07 So I won't be surprised that the stock would possibly continue to remain under pressure
08:12 because clearly the markets are now looking at the fact that in what way is Asian Pains
08:16 going to defend its market share and obviously preserve its margins. So on one side, crude
08:22 prices have softened. But I think on the other hand, competition has intensified. So I think
08:26 at best it can be a hold. We would not suggest a fresh buy at the current price.
08:31 Tata Motors had a pretty decent day yesterday. Numbers are expected today. Technically, this
08:36 was looking good and it seems like the fundamental news trigger will be the earnings. But this
08:41 morning at Rs 1,037, would you be brave enough to go long on Tata Motors out of earnings?
08:51 I think, see if you ask me on Tata Motors, I think the company has now decided to separate
08:57 both the automotive commercial vehicle and the passenger car business. This remains the
09:01 key trigger. And I think as far as the JLR business is concerned, Samira, I think we
09:05 are going to see a better traction on both the volumes as well as the margins. In fact,
09:09 the company has maintained that it should obviously generate free cash flow, which is
09:13 a very important variable for them. And going forward, I think the demerger trigger is going
09:17 to play out. In fact, yesterday, there was some news saying that even the NBFC business
09:22 is now going to be transferred to Tata Capital. So that also obviously would mean that the
09:27 company gets more focused on its business entities. So as best I think, I think we'll
09:32 prefer to wait for the numbers. But yes, at around 1000 or just below 1000, one could
09:36 definitely look at accumulating it. We feel automotive is one sector which should do remarkably
09:41 well in FY21.
09:42 Avinash, if you had to accumulate something right now, one minute answer, what is it that
09:47 you would do?
09:49 I think I would bet on the hospitality sector. I think we like companies like Indian hotels,
09:54 East India hotels. I think these are fairly defensive bets and with good earnings growth,
10:00 potential possibilities for the coming year also. And I think within the auto component
10:05 space also, we like one or two companies like Sundaram Fasteners, Ask Automotive. These are
10:10 companies which have been beaten down and I think a good recovery in basically the two-wheeler
10:15 markets is going to be something which would benefit Ask Auto quite significantly. In fact,
10:19 Sundaram Fasteners would benefit from a large commercial vehicle and passenger car kind
10:23 of volume growth expansion in the current year. So I think hotels would be our topic
10:27 and I think Indian hotels, East India hotels, even at the current levels, an investor can
10:31 expect a decent risk.
10:34 All right, last call, Amar, very quickly. What is the one big bet this morning on a
10:42 very, very, I would say iffy day where it's difficult to take a clear call?
10:48 Yeah, I would say that if one looks at a particular stock, in that case Bharat Forge is one stock
10:55 one can definitely keep a close watch on because this is one stock which has, I would say,
11:01 defied the market's correction and continues to be very strong on the back of significant
11:06 volumes and delivery quantity. And also what we're seeing is that the stock has breached
11:12 a crucial zone of resistance earlier, which was around 1350 odd levels. So currently it's
11:16 around 1400, 1420. If you look at the overall structure of the chart on the long term, intermediate
11:21 term, short term, that continues to be very strong. So this is one stock on any correction.
11:26 This is a stock one can definitely look at buying. The levels to watch out for on the
11:30 downside would be around 1350, 1360. If there's a correction towards that level, that can
11:34 be a good buying opportunity with an upside target of 1470 on the upside and stop loss
11:40 would be below 1300 levels.
11:42 [Music]